For a few hours on a breezy spring night in 2025, something happened on
the Texas power grid that would have been unthinkable a decade ago:
every megawatt flowing to homes, hospitals, and factories across the
state came from wind turbines, solar panels, and battery storage.
Natural gas plants sat idle. Coal plants produced nothing. The Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or ERCOT, the operator that manages power
for roughly 90 percent of the state, carried its load entirely on
renewables and stored energy.
The interval was short, likely a handful of overnight hours when demand dipped and West Texas winds surged. It has not yet been pinned down to
the minute in publicly available ERCOT dispatch logs, and important
caveats apply. But the fact that it happened at all in the nation?s
largest energy-producing state, a place that still pumps more oil and
gas than any other, marks a threshold worth understanding.
Solar is already outpacing coal in Texas
The renewables-only hours did not emerge from nowhere. They sit on top
of a trend that federal data has been tracking for months. According to
the U.S. Energy Information Administration, monthly solar generation in ERCOT exceeded coal for the first time in March 2025. That was not a rounding error. Solar panels spread across West Texas, the Permian
Basin?s fringes, and the Coastal Bend collectively produced more
electricity in a single month than every remaining coal plant in the
state combined.
The EIA projects the gap will keep widening. In its forecast for 2026,
the agency estimates annual solar generation in ERCOT will reach roughly
78 billion kilowatt-hours, compared with about 60 billion from coal. If
that holds, 2026 would be the first full calendar year in which solar outproduces coal across the Texas grid. The 18-billion-kilowatt-hour difference is large enough to power more than 1.5 million average
American homes for a year, based on the EIA?s own household consumption benchmarks.
To put that in perspective, natural gas still generates the largest
share of ERCOT?s electricity, typically around 40 to 50 percent on an
annual basis, according to EIA generation data. Texas is not about to abandon fossil fuels overnight. But the balance is shifting faster than
most grid planners expected even three years ago.
Batteries are filling the gaps wind and solar leave behind
Wind has been the workhorse of Texas renewables for years. On spring
nights, strong gusts across the Panhandle and Gulf Coast routinely push
wind output high just as residential demand falls, creating long
stretches when turbines alone can cover a huge share of the grid?s
needs. What changed recently is the arrival of utility-scale batteries
at meaningful volume.
Texas had installed roughly 5 gigawatts of battery storage capacity by
early 2025, second only to California nationally. Those batteries absorb cheap solar power during midday hours, when panels flood the market and wholesale prices sometimes drop to zero or below, then discharge it in
the evening when demand climbs and prices rise. That arbitrage is what
makes the economics work for storage developers, and it is also what
makes renewables-only grid operation possible after sunset.
During the reported renewables-only interval, batteries likely
discharged stored solar and wind energy to cover the gap between what turbines were producing in real time and what the grid needed. Without
that stored power, gas turbines would have been called on to fill the shortfall within minutes.
What we still do not know
Several important details remain unconfirmed. ERCOT publishes generation-by-fuel data, but the granular, minute-by-minute dispatch
records that would pin down exactly when gas and coal output hit zero
have not been independently verified through those primary datasets as
of early June 2026. Social media posts from grid-monitoring accounts
flagged the event in real time, but those are timeline markers, not
official records.
The timing matters enormously. Running the grid on renewables for a few hours on a mild spring night, when demand might sit around 30 to 35 gigawatts, is a fundamentally different proposition than doing so on an August afternoon, when air conditioners across Houston, Dallas, San
Antonio, and Austin push demand above 80 gigawatts. The season, the
hour, and the load level all shape how significant a renewables-only
stretch really is for long-term planning.
There is also the question of standby capacity. Gas plants that are
idling but ready to ramp within minutes provide a safety net that raw generation numbers do not capture. Without detailed ancillary-services
data from ERCOT, it is hard to say whether the grid was truly operating
with no fossil fuel backstop or whether gas turbines were quietly
standing in reserve, ready to fire if a turbine tripped offline or a
battery bank hit its discharge limit.
Why it matters for electricity bills and grid planning
For the roughly 30 million Texans served by ERCOT, the shift in
generation mix is already showing up in wholesale electricity prices.
Midday prices have been compressed by solar output, sometimes turning negative when supply outstrips demand. That benefits consumers on plans
tied to wholesale rates, but it squeezes profit margins for gas
generators that used to count on selling power during those hours.
Battery operators, meanwhile, are profiting from the spread between
cheap midday electricity and more expensive evening power.
ERCOT?s energy-only market design, which pays generators only for the
power they actually deliver rather than for keeping capacity available, amplifies these dynamics. Renewables with zero fuel costs can undercut
gas plants on price whenever the wind blows or the sun shines,
accelerating the economic pressure on thermal generation even without mandates or subsidies driving the shift.
For grid reliability, the central question is not whether Texas can occasionally run on renewables alone but how often and under what conditions. Winter Storm Uri in February 2021 exposed how badly the grid
can fail when extreme weather knocks out generation of all types simultaneously. Planners will be watching three variables closely: how
fast battery storage scales beyond its current capacity, whether demand- side flexibility programs can shave peaks during heat waves, and whether transmission upgrades can move surplus wind and solar power from remote
West Texas to the urban load centers hundreds of miles away.
A fossil fuel state crossing its own milestones
The EIA?s 2026 solar forecast is a projection, not a guarantee. It
depends on planned solar farms actually reaching commercial operation,
on weather cooperating, and on no major policy or permitting disruptions stalling construction. The agency has historically underestimated the
pace of U.S. solar deployment, which suggests the crossover could arrive
at a wider margin than currently projected. But supply chain
bottlenecks, interconnection queue delays, or shifts in federal energy policy could slow things down just as easily.
What the verified data supports as of mid-2026 is straightforward. Solar
has already displaced coal in the Texas generation mix on at least a
monthly basis, documented by federal statistics. The physical capability
to run the grid on wind, solar, and batteries alone, at least for
limited periods under favorable conditions, is no longer theoretical.
And the economic incentives pulling capital toward renewables and
storage in ERCOT show no sign of reversing.
Whether those spring overnight hours turn out to be a curiosity or an
early signal of something more routine will depend on how quickly
storage scales, how resilient the grid proves under stress, and how
Texas balances its deep ties to oil and gas against the raw economics of electrons that cost nothing to fuel. The next few summers and winters
will provide the answer.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/texas-just-ran-its-entire-grid- on-wind-solar-and-batteries-alone-for-hours-renewables-briefly-powering- the-nation-s-biggest-energy-state-with-no-gas-or-coal/ar-AA23X36k? ocid=hpmsn
The Future Has Arrived!
For a few hours on a breezy spring night in 2025, something happened on
the Texas power grid that would have been unthinkable a decade ago:
every megawatt flowing to homes, hospitals, and factories across the
state came from wind turbines, solar panels, and battery storage.
Natural gas plants sat idle. Coal plants produced nothing. The Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or ERCOT, the operator that manages power
for roughly 90 percent of the state, carried its load entirely on
renewables and stored energy.
The interval was short, likely a handful of overnight hours when demand dipped and West Texas winds surged. It has not yet been pinned down to
the minute in publicly available ERCOT dispatch logs, and important
caveats apply. But the fact that it happened at all in the nation?s
largest energy-producing state, a place that still pumps more oil and
gas than any other, marks a threshold worth understanding.
Solar is already outpacing coal in Texas
The renewables-only hours did not emerge from nowhere. They sit on top
of a trend that federal data has been tracking for months. According to
the U.S. Energy Information Administration, monthly solar generation in ERCOT exceeded coal for the first time in March 2025. That was not a rounding error. Solar panels spread across West Texas, the Permian
Basin?s fringes, and the Coastal Bend collectively produced more
electricity in a single month than every remaining coal plant in the
state combined.
The EIA projects the gap will keep widening. In its forecast for 2026,
the agency estimates annual solar generation in ERCOT will reach roughly
78 billion kilowatt-hours, compared with about 60 billion from coal. If
that holds, 2026 would be the first full calendar year in which solar outproduces coal across the Texas grid. The 18-billion-kilowatt-hour difference is large enough to power more than 1.5 million average
American homes for a year, based on the EIA?s own household consumption benchmarks.
To put that in perspective, natural gas still generates the largest
share of ERCOT?s electricity, typically around 40 to 50 percent on an
annual basis, according to EIA generation data. Texas is not about to abandon fossil fuels overnight. But the balance is shifting faster than
most grid planners expected even three years ago.
Batteries are filling the gaps wind and solar leave behind
Wind has been the workhorse of Texas renewables for years. On spring
nights, strong gusts across the Panhandle and Gulf Coast routinely push
wind output high just as residential demand falls, creating long
stretches when turbines alone can cover a huge share of the grid?s
needs. What changed recently is the arrival of utility-scale batteries
at meaningful volume.
Texas had installed roughly 5 gigawatts of battery storage capacity by
early 2025, second only to California nationally. Those batteries absorb cheap solar power during midday hours, when panels flood the market and wholesale prices sometimes drop to zero or below, then discharge it in
the evening when demand climbs and prices rise. That arbitrage is what
makes the economics work for storage developers, and it is also what
makes renewables-only grid operation possible after sunset.
During the reported renewables-only interval, batteries likely
discharged stored solar and wind energy to cover the gap between what turbines were producing in real time and what the grid needed. Without
that stored power, gas turbines would have been called on to fill the shortfall within minutes.
What we still do not know
Several important details remain unconfirmed. ERCOT publishes generation-by-fuel data, but the granular, minute-by-minute dispatch
records that would pin down exactly when gas and coal output hit zero
have not been independently verified through those primary datasets as
of early June 2026. Social media posts from grid-monitoring accounts
flagged the event in real time, but those are timeline markers, not
official records.
The timing matters enormously. Running the grid on renewables for a few hours on a mild spring night, when demand might sit around 30 to 35 gigawatts, is a fundamentally different proposition than doing so on an August afternoon, when air conditioners across Houston, Dallas, San
Antonio, and Austin push demand above 80 gigawatts. The season, the
hour, and the load level all shape how significant a renewables-only
stretch really is for long-term planning.
There is also the question of standby capacity. Gas plants that are
idling but ready to ramp within minutes provide a safety net that raw generation numbers do not capture. Without detailed ancillary-services
data from ERCOT, it is hard to say whether the grid was truly operating
with no fossil fuel backstop or whether gas turbines were quietly
standing in reserve, ready to fire if a turbine tripped offline or a
battery bank hit its discharge limit.
Why it matters for electricity bills and grid planning
For the roughly 30 million Texans served by ERCOT, the shift in
generation mix is already showing up in wholesale electricity prices.
Midday prices have been compressed by solar output, sometimes turning negative when supply outstrips demand. That benefits consumers on plans
tied to wholesale rates, but it squeezes profit margins for gas
generators that used to count on selling power during those hours.
Battery operators, meanwhile, are profiting from the spread between
cheap midday electricity and more expensive evening power.
ERCOT?s energy-only market design, which pays generators only for the
power they actually deliver rather than for keeping capacity available, amplifies these dynamics. Renewables with zero fuel costs can undercut
gas plants on price whenever the wind blows or the sun shines,
accelerating the economic pressure on thermal generation even without mandates or subsidies driving the shift.
For grid reliability, the central question is not whether Texas can occasionally run on renewables alone but how often and under what conditions. Winter Storm Uri in February 2021 exposed how badly the grid
can fail when extreme weather knocks out generation of all types simultaneously. Planners will be watching three variables closely: how
fast battery storage scales beyond its current capacity, whether demand- side flexibility programs can shave peaks during heat waves, and whether transmission upgrades can move surplus wind and solar power from remote
West Texas to the urban load centers hundreds of miles away.
A fossil fuel state crossing its own milestones
The EIA?s 2026 solar forecast is a projection, not a guarantee. It
depends on planned solar farms actually reaching commercial operation,
on weather cooperating, and on no major policy or permitting disruptions stalling construction. The agency has historically underestimated the
pace of U.S. solar deployment, which suggests the crossover could arrive
at a wider margin than currently projected. But supply chain
bottlenecks, interconnection queue delays, or shifts in federal energy policy could slow things down just as easily.
What the verified data supports as of mid-2026 is straightforward. Solar
has already displaced coal in the Texas generation mix on at least a
monthly basis, documented by federal statistics. The physical capability
to run the grid on wind, solar, and batteries alone, at least for
limited periods under favorable conditions, is no longer theoretical.
And the economic incentives pulling capital toward renewables and
storage in ERCOT show no sign of reversing.
Whether those spring overnight hours turn out to be a curiosity or an
early signal of something more routine will depend on how quickly
storage scales, how resilient the grid proves under stress, and how
Texas balances its deep ties to oil and gas against the raw economics of electrons that cost nothing to fuel. The next few summers and winters
will provide the answer.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/texas-just-ran-its-entire-grid- on-wind-solar-and-batteries-alone-for-hours-renewables-briefly-powering- the-nation-s-biggest-energy-state-with-no-gas-or-coal/ar-AA23X36k? ocid=hpmsn
The Future Has Arrived!
Be sure to mention that the "cheap solar power" is highly subsidized
by the USA federal government.
On 5/24/2026 5:47 PM, Dimensional Traveler wrote:
For a few hours on a breezy spring night in 2025, something happened
on the Texas power grid that would have been unthinkable a decade ago:
every megawatt flowing to homes, hospitals, and factories across the
state came from wind turbines, solar panels, and battery storage.
Natural gas plants sat idle. Coal plants produced nothing. The
Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or ERCOT, the operator that
manages power for roughly 90 percent of the state, carried its load
entirely on renewables and stored energy.
The interval was short, likely a handful of overnight hours when
demand dipped and West Texas winds surged. It has not yet been pinned
down to the minute in publicly available ERCOT dispatch logs, and
important caveats apply. But the fact that it happened at all in the
nation?s largest energy-producing state, a place that still pumps more
oil and gas than any other, marks a threshold worth understanding.
Solar is already outpacing coal in Texas
The renewables-only hours did not emerge from nowhere. They sit on top
of a trend that federal data has been tracking for months. According
to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, monthly solar
generation in ERCOT exceeded coal for the first time in March 2025.
That was not a rounding error. Solar panels spread across West Texas,
the Permian Basin?s fringes, and the Coastal Bend collectively
produced more electricity in a single month than every remaining coal
plant in the state combined.
The EIA projects the gap will keep widening. In its forecast for 2026,
the agency estimates annual solar generation in ERCOT will reach
roughly 78 billion kilowatt-hours, compared with about 60 billion from
coal. If that holds, 2026 would be the first full calendar year in
which solar outproduces coal across the Texas grid. The 18-billion-
kilowatt-hour difference is large enough to power more than 1.5
million average American homes for a year, based on the EIA?s own
household consumption benchmarks.
To put that in perspective, natural gas still generates the largest
share of ERCOT?s electricity, typically around 40 to 50 percent on an
annual basis, according to EIA generation data. Texas is not about to
abandon fossil fuels overnight. But the balance is shifting faster
than most grid planners expected even three years ago.
Batteries are filling the gaps wind and solar leave behind
Wind has been the workhorse of Texas renewables for years. On spring
nights, strong gusts across the Panhandle and Gulf Coast routinely
push wind output high just as residential demand falls, creating long
stretches when turbines alone can cover a huge share of the grid?s
needs. What changed recently is the arrival of utility-scale batteries
at meaningful volume.
Texas had installed roughly 5 gigawatts of battery storage capacity by
early 2025, second only to California nationally. Those batteries
absorb cheap solar power during midday hours, when panels flood the
market and wholesale prices sometimes drop to zero or below, then
discharge it in the evening when demand climbs and prices rise. That
arbitrage is what makes the economics work for storage developers, and
it is also what makes renewables-only grid operation possible after
sunset.
During the reported renewables-only interval, batteries likely
discharged stored solar and wind energy to cover the gap between what
turbines were producing in real time and what the grid needed. Without
that stored power, gas turbines would have been called on to fill the
shortfall within minutes.
What we still do not know
Several important details remain unconfirmed. ERCOT publishes
generation-by-fuel data, but the granular, minute-by-minute dispatch
records that would pin down exactly when gas and coal output hit zero
have not been independently verified through those primary datasets as
of early June 2026. Social media posts from grid-monitoring accounts
flagged the event in real time, but those are timeline markers, not
official records.
The timing matters enormously. Running the grid on renewables for a
few hours on a mild spring night, when demand might sit around 30 to
35 gigawatts, is a fundamentally different proposition than doing so
on an August afternoon, when air conditioners across Houston, Dallas,
San Antonio, and Austin push demand above 80 gigawatts. The season,
the hour, and the load level all shape how significant a renewables-
only stretch really is for long-term planning.
There is also the question of standby capacity. Gas plants that are
idling but ready to ramp within minutes provide a safety net that raw
generation numbers do not capture. Without detailed ancillary-services
data from ERCOT, it is hard to say whether the grid was truly
operating with no fossil fuel backstop or whether gas turbines were
quietly standing in reserve, ready to fire if a turbine tripped
offline or a battery bank hit its discharge limit.
Why it matters for electricity bills and grid planning
For the roughly 30 million Texans served by ERCOT, the shift in
generation mix is already showing up in wholesale electricity prices.
Midday prices have been compressed by solar output, sometimes turning
negative when supply outstrips demand. That benefits consumers on
plans tied to wholesale rates, but it squeezes profit margins for gas
generators that used to count on selling power during those hours.
Battery operators, meanwhile, are profiting from the spread between
cheap midday electricity and more expensive evening power.
ERCOT?s energy-only market design, which pays generators only for the
power they actually deliver rather than for keeping capacity
available, amplifies these dynamics. Renewables with zero fuel costs
can undercut gas plants on price whenever the wind blows or the sun
shines, accelerating the economic pressure on thermal generation even
without mandates or subsidies driving the shift.
For grid reliability, the central question is not whether Texas can
occasionally run on renewables alone but how often and under what
conditions. Winter Storm Uri in February 2021 exposed how badly the
grid can fail when extreme weather knocks out generation of all types
simultaneously. Planners will be watching three variables closely: how
fast battery storage scales beyond its current capacity, whether
demand- side flexibility programs can shave peaks during heat waves,
and whether transmission upgrades can move surplus wind and solar
power from remote West Texas to the urban load centers hundreds of
miles away.
A fossil fuel state crossing its own milestones
The EIA?s 2026 solar forecast is a projection, not a guarantee. It
depends on planned solar farms actually reaching commercial operation,
on weather cooperating, and on no major policy or permitting
disruptions stalling construction. The agency has historically
underestimated the pace of U.S. solar deployment, which suggests the
crossover could arrive at a wider margin than currently projected. But
supply chain bottlenecks, interconnection queue delays, or shifts in
federal energy policy could slow things down just as easily.
What the verified data supports as of mid-2026 is straightforward.
Solar has already displaced coal in the Texas generation mix on at
least a monthly basis, documented by federal statistics. The physical
capability to run the grid on wind, solar, and batteries alone, at
least for limited periods under favorable conditions, is no longer
theoretical. And the economic incentives pulling capital toward
renewables and storage in ERCOT show no sign of reversing.
Whether those spring overnight hours turn out to be a curiosity or an
early signal of something more routine will depend on how quickly
storage scales, how resilient the grid proves under stress, and how
Texas balances its deep ties to oil and gas against the raw economics
of electrons that cost nothing to fuel. The next few summers and
winters will provide the answer.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/texas-just-ran-its-entire-
grid- on-wind-solar-and-batteries-alone-for-hours-renewables-briefly-
powering- the-nation-s-biggest-energy-state-with-no-gas-or-coal/ar-
AA23X36k? ocid=hpmsn
The Future Has Arrived!
IIRC there only 12 coal / lignite plants left operating in Texas with
about 40 power generators.˙ The Parish plant is of course the largest
with 4 coal steam generators, 4 natural gas/oil steam generators, 13 ???
48 MW gas turbines, 3 ??? 90 MW gas turbines, etc.
I find it hard to believe that all of the supercritical coal / lignite
and natural gas units were shut down.˙ Those units take a day to two
days to shut down properly.˙ Of course, I managed to trip a 750 MW coal steam offline one fine day after it blew a steam line loose (I tripped
it on purpose and cost the plant manager his annual bonus).˙ And the supercritical steam units take 3 day to a week to startup depending on
how warm they are.˙ Their minimum generation power level is usually 40%
of their rated power max.
When you say
"Texas had installed roughly 5 gigawatts of battery storage capacity by early 2025, second only to California nationally. Those batteries absorb cheap solar power during midday hours, when panels flood the market and wholesale prices sometimes drop to zero or below, then discharge it in
the evening when demand climbs and prices rise.",
Be sure to mention that the "cheap solar power" is highly subsidized by
the USA federal government.˙ I saw a figure lately quoting that subsidy
as costing the federal government $600 billion per year now which I
found hard to believe.
Lynn
On 5/24/2026 5:47 PM, Dimensional Traveler wrote:
For a few hours on a breezy spring night in 2025, something happened
on the Texas power grid that would have been unthinkable a decade ago:
every megawatt flowing to homes, hospitals, and factories across the
state came from wind turbines, solar panels, and battery storage.
Natural gas plants sat idle. Coal plants produced nothing. The
Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or ERCOT, the operator that
manages power for roughly 90 percent of the state, carried its load
entirely on renewables and stored energy.
The interval was short, likely a handful of overnight hours when
demand dipped and West Texas winds surged. It has not yet been pinned
down to the minute in publicly available ERCOT dispatch logs, and
important caveats apply. But the fact that it happened at all in the
nation?s largest energy-producing state, a place that still pumps more
oil and gas than any other, marks a threshold worth understanding.
Solar is already outpacing coal in Texas
The renewables-only hours did not emerge from nowhere. They sit on top
of a trend that federal data has been tracking for months. According
to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, monthly solar
generation in ERCOT exceeded coal for the first time in March 2025.
That was not a rounding error. Solar panels spread across West Texas,
the Permian Basin?s fringes, and the Coastal Bend collectively
produced more electricity in a single month than every remaining coal
plant in the state combined.
The EIA projects the gap will keep widening. In its forecast for 2026,
the agency estimates annual solar generation in ERCOT will reach
roughly 78 billion kilowatt-hours, compared with about 60 billion from
coal. If that holds, 2026 would be the first full calendar year in
which solar outproduces coal across the Texas grid. The 18-billion-
kilowatt-hour difference is large enough to power more than 1.5
million average American homes for a year, based on the EIA?s own
household consumption benchmarks.
To put that in perspective, natural gas still generates the largest
share of ERCOT?s electricity, typically around 40 to 50 percent on an
annual basis, according to EIA generation data. Texas is not about to
abandon fossil fuels overnight. But the balance is shifting faster
than most grid planners expected even three years ago.
Batteries are filling the gaps wind and solar leave behind
Wind has been the workhorse of Texas renewables for years. On spring
nights, strong gusts across the Panhandle and Gulf Coast routinely
push wind output high just as residential demand falls, creating long
stretches when turbines alone can cover a huge share of the grid?s
needs. What changed recently is the arrival of utility-scale batteries
at meaningful volume.
Texas had installed roughly 5 gigawatts of battery storage capacity by
early 2025, second only to California nationally. Those batteries
absorb cheap solar power during midday hours, when panels flood the
market and wholesale prices sometimes drop to zero or below, then
discharge it in the evening when demand climbs and prices rise. That
arbitrage is what makes the economics work for storage developers, and
it is also what makes renewables-only grid operation possible after
sunset.
During the reported renewables-only interval, batteries likely
discharged stored solar and wind energy to cover the gap between what
turbines were producing in real time and what the grid needed. Without
that stored power, gas turbines would have been called on to fill the
shortfall within minutes.
What we still do not know
Several important details remain unconfirmed. ERCOT publishes
generation-by-fuel data, but the granular, minute-by-minute dispatch
records that would pin down exactly when gas and coal output hit zero
have not been independently verified through those primary datasets as
of early June 2026. Social media posts from grid-monitoring accounts
flagged the event in real time, but those are timeline markers, not
official records.
The timing matters enormously. Running the grid on renewables for a
few hours on a mild spring night, when demand might sit around 30 to
35 gigawatts, is a fundamentally different proposition than doing so
on an August afternoon, when air conditioners across Houston, Dallas,
San Antonio, and Austin push demand above 80 gigawatts. The season,
the hour, and the load level all shape how significant a renewables-
only stretch really is for long-term planning.
There is also the question of standby capacity. Gas plants that are
idling but ready to ramp within minutes provide a safety net that raw
generation numbers do not capture. Without detailed ancillary-services
data from ERCOT, it is hard to say whether the grid was truly
operating with no fossil fuel backstop or whether gas turbines were
quietly standing in reserve, ready to fire if a turbine tripped
offline or a battery bank hit its discharge limit.
Why it matters for electricity bills and grid planning
For the roughly 30 million Texans served by ERCOT, the shift in
generation mix is already showing up in wholesale electricity prices.
Midday prices have been compressed by solar output, sometimes turning
negative when supply outstrips demand. That benefits consumers on
plans tied to wholesale rates, but it squeezes profit margins for gas
generators that used to count on selling power during those hours.
Battery operators, meanwhile, are profiting from the spread between
cheap midday electricity and more expensive evening power.
ERCOT?s energy-only market design, which pays generators only for the
power they actually deliver rather than for keeping capacity
available, amplifies these dynamics. Renewables with zero fuel costs
can undercut gas plants on price whenever the wind blows or the sun
shines, accelerating the economic pressure on thermal generation even
without mandates or subsidies driving the shift.
For grid reliability, the central question is not whether Texas can
occasionally run on renewables alone but how often and under what
conditions. Winter Storm Uri in February 2021 exposed how badly the
grid can fail when extreme weather knocks out generation of all types
simultaneously. Planners will be watching three variables closely: how
fast battery storage scales beyond its current capacity, whether
demand- side flexibility programs can shave peaks during heat waves,
and whether transmission upgrades can move surplus wind and solar
power from remote West Texas to the urban load centers hundreds of
miles away.
A fossil fuel state crossing its own milestones
The EIA?s 2026 solar forecast is a projection, not a guarantee. It
depends on planned solar farms actually reaching commercial operation,
on weather cooperating, and on no major policy or permitting
disruptions stalling construction. The agency has historically
underestimated the pace of U.S. solar deployment, which suggests the
crossover could arrive at a wider margin than currently projected. But
supply chain bottlenecks, interconnection queue delays, or shifts in
federal energy policy could slow things down just as easily.
What the verified data supports as of mid-2026 is straightforward.
Solar has already displaced coal in the Texas generation mix on at
least a monthly basis, documented by federal statistics. The physical
capability to run the grid on wind, solar, and batteries alone, at
least for limited periods under favorable conditions, is no longer
theoretical. And the economic incentives pulling capital toward
renewables and storage in ERCOT show no sign of reversing.
Whether those spring overnight hours turn out to be a curiosity or an
early signal of something more routine will depend on how quickly
storage scales, how resilient the grid proves under stress, and how
Texas balances its deep ties to oil and gas against the raw economics
of electrons that cost nothing to fuel. The next few summers and
winters will provide the answer.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/texas-just-ran-its-entire-
grid- on-wind-solar-and-batteries-alone-for-hours-renewables-briefly-
powering- the-nation-s-biggest-energy-state-with-no-gas-or-coal/ar-
AA23X36k? ocid=hpmsn
The Future Has Arrived!
Right now:
˙ https://www.ercot.com/
˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙ Current Generation˙ Monthly Capacity
Solar˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙ 20,788 MW(31.5%)˙˙˙˙ 38,563 MW
Wind˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙ 4,803 MW(7.3%)˙˙˙˙˙ 40,736 MW
Hydro˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙ 156 MW(0.2%)˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙ 579 MW
Power Storage˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙ 23 MW(0.0%)˙˙˙˙˙ 18,914 MW
Other˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙ 50 MW(0.1%)˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙ 643 MW
Natural Gas˙˙˙˙˙˙ 29,618 MW(45.0%)˙˙˙˙ 69,425 MW
Coal and Lignite˙˙ 6,609 MW(10.0%)˙˙˙˙ 13,705 MW
Nuclear˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙ 3,844 MW(5.8%)˙˙˙˙˙˙ 5,268 MW
I guess the author of that article counted the nuclear as a renewable because those units only shut down for refueling every 18 months.
And ERCOT says that the battery storage is almost 4X what your article claims.
Lynn
On 5/24/2026 7:02 PM, Lynn McGuire wrote:
On 5/24/2026 5:47 PM, Dimensional Traveler wrote:
For a few hours on a breezy spring night in 2025, something happened
on the Texas power grid that would have been unthinkable a decade
ago: every megawatt flowing to homes, hospitals, and factories across
the state came from wind turbines, solar panels, and battery storage.
Natural gas plants sat idle. Coal plants produced nothing. The
Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or ERCOT, the operator that
manages power for roughly 90 percent of the state, carried its load
entirely on renewables and stored energy.
The interval was short, likely a handful of overnight hours when
demand dipped and West Texas winds surged. It has not yet been pinned
down to the minute in publicly available ERCOT dispatch logs, and
important caveats apply. But the fact that it happened at all in the
nation?s largest energy-producing state, a place that still pumps
more oil and gas than any other, marks a threshold worth understanding.
Solar is already outpacing coal in Texas
The renewables-only hours did not emerge from nowhere. They sit on
top of a trend that federal data has been tracking for months.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, monthly
solar generation in ERCOT exceeded coal for the first time in March
2025. That was not a rounding error. Solar panels spread across West
Texas, the Permian Basin?s fringes, and the Coastal Bend collectively
produced more electricity in a single month than every remaining coal
plant in the state combined.
The EIA projects the gap will keep widening. In its forecast for
2026, the agency estimates annual solar generation in ERCOT will
reach roughly 78 billion kilowatt-hours, compared with about 60
billion from coal. If that holds, 2026 would be the first full
calendar year in which solar outproduces coal across the Texas grid.
The 18-billion- kilowatt-hour difference is large enough to power
more than 1.5 million average American homes for a year, based on the
EIA?s own household consumption benchmarks.
To put that in perspective, natural gas still generates the largest
share of ERCOT?s electricity, typically around 40 to 50 percent on an
annual basis, according to EIA generation data. Texas is not about to
abandon fossil fuels overnight. But the balance is shifting faster
than most grid planners expected even three years ago.
Batteries are filling the gaps wind and solar leave behind
Wind has been the workhorse of Texas renewables for years. On spring
nights, strong gusts across the Panhandle and Gulf Coast routinely
push wind output high just as residential demand falls, creating long
stretches when turbines alone can cover a huge share of the grid?s
needs. What changed recently is the arrival of utility-scale
batteries at meaningful volume.
Texas had installed roughly 5 gigawatts of battery storage capacity
by early 2025, second only to California nationally. Those batteries
absorb cheap solar power during midday hours, when panels flood the
market and wholesale prices sometimes drop to zero or below, then
discharge it in the evening when demand climbs and prices rise. That
arbitrage is what makes the economics work for storage developers,
and it is also what makes renewables-only grid operation possible
after sunset.
During the reported renewables-only interval, batteries likely
discharged stored solar and wind energy to cover the gap between what
turbines were producing in real time and what the grid needed.
Without that stored power, gas turbines would have been called on to
fill the shortfall within minutes.
What we still do not know
Several important details remain unconfirmed. ERCOT publishes
generation-by-fuel data, but the granular, minute-by-minute dispatch
records that would pin down exactly when gas and coal output hit zero
have not been independently verified through those primary datasets
as of early June 2026. Social media posts from grid-monitoring
accounts flagged the event in real time, but those are timeline
markers, not official records.
The timing matters enormously. Running the grid on renewables for a
few hours on a mild spring night, when demand might sit around 30 to
35 gigawatts, is a fundamentally different proposition than doing so
on an August afternoon, when air conditioners across Houston, Dallas,
San Antonio, and Austin push demand above 80 gigawatts. The season,
the hour, and the load level all shape how significant a renewables-
only stretch really is for long-term planning.
There is also the question of standby capacity. Gas plants that are
idling but ready to ramp within minutes provide a safety net that raw
generation numbers do not capture. Without detailed ancillary-
services data from ERCOT, it is hard to say whether the grid was
truly operating with no fossil fuel backstop or whether gas turbines
were quietly standing in reserve, ready to fire if a turbine tripped
offline or a battery bank hit its discharge limit.
Why it matters for electricity bills and grid planning
For the roughly 30 million Texans served by ERCOT, the shift in
generation mix is already showing up in wholesale electricity prices.
Midday prices have been compressed by solar output, sometimes turning
negative when supply outstrips demand. That benefits consumers on
plans tied to wholesale rates, but it squeezes profit margins for gas
generators that used to count on selling power during those hours.
Battery operators, meanwhile, are profiting from the spread between
cheap midday electricity and more expensive evening power.
ERCOT?s energy-only market design, which pays generators only for the
power they actually deliver rather than for keeping capacity
available, amplifies these dynamics. Renewables with zero fuel costs
can undercut gas plants on price whenever the wind blows or the sun
shines, accelerating the economic pressure on thermal generation even
without mandates or subsidies driving the shift.
For grid reliability, the central question is not whether Texas can
occasionally run on renewables alone but how often and under what
conditions. Winter Storm Uri in February 2021 exposed how badly the
grid can fail when extreme weather knocks out generation of all types
simultaneously. Planners will be watching three variables closely:
how fast battery storage scales beyond its current capacity, whether
demand- side flexibility programs can shave peaks during heat waves,
and whether transmission upgrades can move surplus wind and solar
power from remote West Texas to the urban load centers hundreds of
miles away.
A fossil fuel state crossing its own milestones
The EIA?s 2026 solar forecast is a projection, not a guarantee. It
depends on planned solar farms actually reaching commercial
operation, on weather cooperating, and on no major policy or
permitting disruptions stalling construction. The agency has
historically underestimated the pace of U.S. solar deployment, which
suggests the crossover could arrive at a wider margin than currently
projected. But supply chain bottlenecks, interconnection queue
delays, or shifts in federal energy policy could slow things down
just as easily.
What the verified data supports as of mid-2026 is straightforward.
Solar has already displaced coal in the Texas generation mix on at
least a monthly basis, documented by federal statistics. The physical
capability to run the grid on wind, solar, and batteries alone, at
least for limited periods under favorable conditions, is no longer
theoretical. And the economic incentives pulling capital toward
renewables and storage in ERCOT show no sign of reversing.
Whether those spring overnight hours turn out to be a curiosity or an
early signal of something more routine will depend on how quickly
storage scales, how resilient the grid proves under stress, and how
Texas balances its deep ties to oil and gas against the raw economics
of electrons that cost nothing to fuel. The next few summers and
winters will provide the answer.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/texas-just-ran-its-entire-
grid- on-wind-solar-and-batteries-alone-for-hours-renewables-briefly-
powering- the-nation-s-biggest-energy-state-with-no-gas-or-coal/ar-
AA23X36k? ocid=hpmsn
The Future Has Arrived!
IIRC there only 12 coal / lignite plants left operating in Texas with
about 40 power generators.˙ The Parish plant is of course the largest
with 4 coal steam generators, 4 natural gas/oil steam generators,
13 ??? 48 MW gas turbines, 3 ??? 90 MW gas turbines, etc.
I find it hard to believe that all of the supercritical coal / lignite
and natural gas units were shut down.˙ Those units take a day to two
days to shut down properly.˙ Of course, I managed to trip a 750 MW
coal steam offline one fine day after it blew a steam line loose (I
tripped it on purpose and cost the plant manager his annual bonus).
And the supercritical steam units take 3 day to a week to startup
depending on how warm they are.˙ Their minimum generation power level
is usually 40% of their rated power max.
When you say
"Texas had installed roughly 5 gigawatts of battery storage capacity
by early 2025, second only to California nationally. Those batteries
absorb
cheap solar power during midday hours, when panels flood the market and
wholesale prices sometimes drop to zero or below, then discharge it in
the evening when demand climbs and prices rise.",
Be sure to mention that the "cheap solar power" is highly subsidized
by the USA federal government.˙ I saw a figure lately quoting that
subsidy as costing the federal government $600 billion per year now
which I found hard to believe.
Lynn
How much are the subsidies and tax breaks for fossil fuels?
pt
On 5/24/2026 7:10 PM, Lynn McGuire wrote:
On 5/24/2026 5:47 PM, Dimensional Traveler wrote:
For a few hours on a breezy spring night in 2025, something happened
on the Texas power grid that would have been unthinkable a decade
ago: every megawatt flowing to homes, hospitals, and factories across
the state came from wind turbines, solar panels, and battery storage.
Natural gas plants sat idle. Coal plants produced nothing. The
Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or ERCOT, the operator that
manages power for roughly 90 percent of the state, carried its load
entirely on renewables and stored energy.
The interval was short, likely a handful of overnight hours when
demand dipped and West Texas winds surged. It has not yet been pinned
down to the minute in publicly available ERCOT dispatch logs, and
important caveats apply. But the fact that it happened at all in the
nation?s largest energy-producing state, a place that still pumps
more oil and gas than any other, marks a threshold worth understanding.
Solar is already outpacing coal in Texas
The renewables-only hours did not emerge from nowhere. They sit on
top of a trend that federal data has been tracking for months.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, monthly
solar generation in ERCOT exceeded coal for the first time in March
2025. That was not a rounding error. Solar panels spread across West
Texas, the Permian Basin?s fringes, and the Coastal Bend collectively
produced more electricity in a single month than every remaining coal
plant in the state combined.
The EIA projects the gap will keep widening. In its forecast for
2026, the agency estimates annual solar generation in ERCOT will
reach roughly 78 billion kilowatt-hours, compared with about 60
billion from coal. If that holds, 2026 would be the first full
calendar year in which solar outproduces coal across the Texas grid.
The 18-billion- kilowatt-hour difference is large enough to power
more than 1.5 million average American homes for a year, based on the
EIA?s own household consumption benchmarks.
To put that in perspective, natural gas still generates the largest
share of ERCOT?s electricity, typically around 40 to 50 percent on an
annual basis, according to EIA generation data. Texas is not about to
abandon fossil fuels overnight. But the balance is shifting faster
than most grid planners expected even three years ago.
Batteries are filling the gaps wind and solar leave behind
Wind has been the workhorse of Texas renewables for years. On spring
nights, strong gusts across the Panhandle and Gulf Coast routinely
push wind output high just as residential demand falls, creating long
stretches when turbines alone can cover a huge share of the grid?s
needs. What changed recently is the arrival of utility-scale
batteries at meaningful volume.
Texas had installed roughly 5 gigawatts of battery storage capacity
by early 2025, second only to California nationally. Those batteries
absorb cheap solar power during midday hours, when panels flood the
market and wholesale prices sometimes drop to zero or below, then
discharge it in the evening when demand climbs and prices rise. That
arbitrage is what makes the economics work for storage developers,
and it is also what makes renewables-only grid operation possible
after sunset.
During the reported renewables-only interval, batteries likely
discharged stored solar and wind energy to cover the gap between what
turbines were producing in real time and what the grid needed.
Without that stored power, gas turbines would have been called on to
fill the shortfall within minutes.
What we still do not know
Several important details remain unconfirmed. ERCOT publishes
generation-by-fuel data, but the granular, minute-by-minute dispatch
records that would pin down exactly when gas and coal output hit zero
have not been independently verified through those primary datasets
as of early June 2026. Social media posts from grid-monitoring
accounts flagged the event in real time, but those are timeline
markers, not official records.
The timing matters enormously. Running the grid on renewables for a
few hours on a mild spring night, when demand might sit around 30 to
35 gigawatts, is a fundamentally different proposition than doing so
on an August afternoon, when air conditioners across Houston, Dallas,
San Antonio, and Austin push demand above 80 gigawatts. The season,
the hour, and the load level all shape how significant a renewables-
only stretch really is for long-term planning.
There is also the question of standby capacity. Gas plants that are
idling but ready to ramp within minutes provide a safety net that raw
generation numbers do not capture. Without detailed ancillary-
services data from ERCOT, it is hard to say whether the grid was
truly operating with no fossil fuel backstop or whether gas turbines
were quietly standing in reserve, ready to fire if a turbine tripped
offline or a battery bank hit its discharge limit.
Why it matters for electricity bills and grid planning
For the roughly 30 million Texans served by ERCOT, the shift in
generation mix is already showing up in wholesale electricity prices.
Midday prices have been compressed by solar output, sometimes turning
negative when supply outstrips demand. That benefits consumers on
plans tied to wholesale rates, but it squeezes profit margins for gas
generators that used to count on selling power during those hours.
Battery operators, meanwhile, are profiting from the spread between
cheap midday electricity and more expensive evening power.
ERCOT?s energy-only market design, which pays generators only for the
power they actually deliver rather than for keeping capacity
available, amplifies these dynamics. Renewables with zero fuel costs
can undercut gas plants on price whenever the wind blows or the sun
shines, accelerating the economic pressure on thermal generation even
without mandates or subsidies driving the shift.
For grid reliability, the central question is not whether Texas can
occasionally run on renewables alone but how often and under what
conditions. Winter Storm Uri in February 2021 exposed how badly the
grid can fail when extreme weather knocks out generation of all types
simultaneously. Planners will be watching three variables closely:
how fast battery storage scales beyond its current capacity, whether
demand- side flexibility programs can shave peaks during heat waves,
and whether transmission upgrades can move surplus wind and solar
power from remote West Texas to the urban load centers hundreds of
miles away.
A fossil fuel state crossing its own milestones
The EIA?s 2026 solar forecast is a projection, not a guarantee. It
depends on planned solar farms actually reaching commercial
operation, on weather cooperating, and on no major policy or
permitting disruptions stalling construction. The agency has
historically underestimated the pace of U.S. solar deployment, which
suggests the crossover could arrive at a wider margin than currently
projected. But supply chain bottlenecks, interconnection queue
delays, or shifts in federal energy policy could slow things down
just as easily.
What the verified data supports as of mid-2026 is straightforward.
Solar has already displaced coal in the Texas generation mix on at
least a monthly basis, documented by federal statistics. The physical
capability to run the grid on wind, solar, and batteries alone, at
least for limited periods under favorable conditions, is no longer
theoretical. And the economic incentives pulling capital toward
renewables and storage in ERCOT show no sign of reversing.
Whether those spring overnight hours turn out to be a curiosity or an
early signal of something more routine will depend on how quickly
storage scales, how resilient the grid proves under stress, and how
Texas balances its deep ties to oil and gas against the raw economics
of electrons that cost nothing to fuel. The next few summers and
winters will provide the answer.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/texas-just-ran-its-entire-
grid- on-wind-solar-and-batteries-alone-for-hours-renewables-briefly-
powering- the-nation-s-biggest-energy-state-with-no-gas-or-coal/ar-
AA23X36k? ocid=hpmsn
The Future Has Arrived!
Right now:
˙˙ https://www.ercot.com/
˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙ Current Generation˙ Monthly Capacity
Solar˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙ 20,788 MW(31.5%)˙˙˙˙ 38,563 MW
Wind˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙ 4,803 MW(7.3%)˙˙˙˙˙ 40,736 MW
Hydro˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙ 156 MW(0.2%)˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙ 579 MW
Power Storage˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙ 23 MW(0.0%)˙˙˙˙˙ 18,914 MW
Other˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙ 50 MW(0.1%)˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙ 643 MW
Natural Gas˙˙˙˙˙˙ 29,618 MW(45.0%)˙˙˙˙ 69,425 MW
Coal and Lignite˙˙ 6,609 MW(10.0%)˙˙˙˙ 13,705 MW
Nuclear˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙ 3,844 MW(5.8%)˙˙˙˙˙˙ 5,268 MW
I guess the author of that article counted the nuclear as a renewable
because those units only shut down for refueling every 18 months.
And ERCOT says that the battery storage is almost 4X what your article
claims.
Lynn
Yesterday I saw claims that wind and solar now produce more electricity
than gas, worldwide, not just in Texas.
pt
On 5/24/2026 7:02 PM, Cryptoengineer wrote:
On 5/24/2026 7:02 PM, Lynn McGuire wrote:
Be sure to mention that the "cheap solar power" is highly subsidized
by the USA federal government.˙ I saw a figure lately quoting that
subsidy as costing the federal government $600 billion per year now
which I found hard to believe.
Lynn
How much are the subsidies and tax breaks for fossil fuels?
pt
Zero.
For a few hours on a breezy spring night in
2025, something happened on the Texas power grid
that would have been unthinkable a decade ago:
every megawatt flowing to homes, hospitals,
and factories across the state came from wind
turbines, solar panels, and battery storage.
Natural gas plants sat idle. Coal plants
produced nothing. The Electric Reliability
Council of Texas, or ERCOT, the operator that
manages power for roughly 90 percent of the
state, carried its load entirely on renewables
and stored energy.
The interval was short, likely a handful of
overnight hours when demand dipped and West
Texas winds surged.
On 5/24/2026 7:04 PM, Cryptoengineer wrote:
On 5/24/2026 7:10 PM, Lynn McGuire wrote:
On 5/24/2026 5:47 PM, Dimensional Traveler wrote:
For a few hours on a breezy spring night in 2025, something happened
on the Texas power grid that would have been unthinkable a decade
ago: every megawatt flowing to homes, hospitals, and factories
across the state came from wind turbines, solar panels, and battery
storage. Natural gas plants sat idle. Coal plants produced nothing.
The Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or ERCOT, the operator
that manages power for roughly 90 percent of the state, carried its
load entirely on renewables and stored energy.
The interval was short, likely a handful of overnight hours when
demand dipped and West Texas winds surged. It has not yet been
pinned down to the minute in publicly available ERCOT dispatch logs,
and important caveats apply. But the fact that it happened at all in
the nation?s largest energy-producing state, a place that still
pumps more oil and gas than any other, marks a threshold worth
understanding.
Solar is already outpacing coal in Texas
The renewables-only hours did not emerge from nowhere. They sit on
top of a trend that federal data has been tracking for months.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, monthly
solar generation in ERCOT exceeded coal for the first time in March
2025. That was not a rounding error. Solar panels spread across West
Texas, the Permian Basin?s fringes, and the Coastal Bend
collectively produced more electricity in a single month than every
remaining coal plant in the state combined.
The EIA projects the gap will keep widening. In its forecast for
2026, the agency estimates annual solar generation in ERCOT will
reach roughly 78 billion kilowatt-hours, compared with about 60
billion from coal. If that holds, 2026 would be the first full
calendar year in which solar outproduces coal across the Texas grid.
The 18-billion- kilowatt-hour difference is large enough to power
more than 1.5 million average American homes for a year, based on
the EIA?s own household consumption benchmarks.
To put that in perspective, natural gas still generates the largest
share of ERCOT?s electricity, typically around 40 to 50 percent on
an annual basis, according to EIA generation data. Texas is not
about to abandon fossil fuels overnight. But the balance is shifting
faster than most grid planners expected even three years ago.
Batteries are filling the gaps wind and solar leave behind
Wind has been the workhorse of Texas renewables for years. On spring
nights, strong gusts across the Panhandle and Gulf Coast routinely
push wind output high just as residential demand falls, creating
long stretches when turbines alone can cover a huge share of the
grid?s needs. What changed recently is the arrival of utility-scale
batteries at meaningful volume.
Texas had installed roughly 5 gigawatts of battery storage capacity
by early 2025, second only to California nationally. Those batteries
absorb cheap solar power during midday hours, when panels flood the
market and wholesale prices sometimes drop to zero or below, then
discharge it in the evening when demand climbs and prices rise. That
arbitrage is what makes the economics work for storage developers,
and it is also what makes renewables-only grid operation possible
after sunset.
During the reported renewables-only interval, batteries likely
discharged stored solar and wind energy to cover the gap between
what turbines were producing in real time and what the grid needed.
Without that stored power, gas turbines would have been called on to
fill the shortfall within minutes.
What we still do not know
Several important details remain unconfirmed. ERCOT publishes
generation-by-fuel data, but the granular, minute-by-minute dispatch
records that would pin down exactly when gas and coal output hit
zero have not been independently verified through those primary
datasets as of early June 2026. Social media posts from grid-
monitoring accounts flagged the event in real time, but those are
timeline markers, not official records.
The timing matters enormously. Running the grid on renewables for a
few hours on a mild spring night, when demand might sit around 30 to
35 gigawatts, is a fundamentally different proposition than doing so
on an August afternoon, when air conditioners across Houston,
Dallas, San Antonio, and Austin push demand above 80 gigawatts. The
season, the hour, and the load level all shape how significant a
renewables- only stretch really is for long-term planning.
There is also the question of standby capacity. Gas plants that are
idling but ready to ramp within minutes provide a safety net that
raw generation numbers do not capture. Without detailed ancillary-
services data from ERCOT, it is hard to say whether the grid was
truly operating with no fossil fuel backstop or whether gas turbines
were quietly standing in reserve, ready to fire if a turbine tripped
offline or a battery bank hit its discharge limit.
Why it matters for electricity bills and grid planning
For the roughly 30 million Texans served by ERCOT, the shift in
generation mix is already showing up in wholesale electricity
prices. Midday prices have been compressed by solar output,
sometimes turning negative when supply outstrips demand. That
benefits consumers on plans tied to wholesale rates, but it squeezes
profit margins for gas generators that used to count on selling
power during those hours. Battery operators, meanwhile, are
profiting from the spread between cheap midday electricity and more
expensive evening power.
ERCOT?s energy-only market design, which pays generators only for
the power they actually deliver rather than for keeping capacity
available, amplifies these dynamics. Renewables with zero fuel costs
can undercut gas plants on price whenever the wind blows or the sun
shines, accelerating the economic pressure on thermal generation
even without mandates or subsidies driving the shift.
For grid reliability, the central question is not whether Texas can
occasionally run on renewables alone but how often and under what
conditions. Winter Storm Uri in February 2021 exposed how badly the
grid can fail when extreme weather knocks out generation of all
types simultaneously. Planners will be watching three variables
closely: how fast battery storage scales beyond its current
capacity, whether demand- side flexibility programs can shave peaks
during heat waves, and whether transmission upgrades can move
surplus wind and solar power from remote West Texas to the urban
load centers hundreds of miles away.
A fossil fuel state crossing its own milestones
The EIA?s 2026 solar forecast is a projection, not a guarantee. It
depends on planned solar farms actually reaching commercial
operation, on weather cooperating, and on no major policy or
permitting disruptions stalling construction. The agency has
historically underestimated the pace of U.S. solar deployment, which
suggests the crossover could arrive at a wider margin than currently
projected. But supply chain bottlenecks, interconnection queue
delays, or shifts in federal energy policy could slow things down
just as easily.
What the verified data supports as of mid-2026 is straightforward.
Solar has already displaced coal in the Texas generation mix on at
least a monthly basis, documented by federal statistics. The
physical capability to run the grid on wind, solar, and batteries
alone, at least for limited periods under favorable conditions, is
no longer theoretical. And the economic incentives pulling capital
toward renewables and storage in ERCOT show no sign of reversing.
Whether those spring overnight hours turn out to be a curiosity or
an early signal of something more routine will depend on how quickly
storage scales, how resilient the grid proves under stress, and how
Texas balances its deep ties to oil and gas against the raw
economics of electrons that cost nothing to fuel. The next few
summers and winters will provide the answer.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/texas-just-ran-its-entire-
grid- on-wind-solar-and-batteries-alone-for-hours-renewables-
briefly- powering- the-nation-s-biggest-energy-state-with-no-gas-or-
coal/ar- AA23X36k? ocid=hpmsn
The Future Has Arrived!
Right now:
˙˙ https://www.ercot.com/
˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙ Current Generation˙ Monthly Capacity
Solar˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙ 20,788 MW(31.5%)˙˙˙˙ 38,563 MW
Wind˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙ 4,803 MW(7.3%)˙˙˙˙˙ 40,736 MW
Hydro˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙ 156 MW(0.2%)˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙ 579 MW
Power Storage˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙ 23 MW(0.0%)˙˙˙˙˙ 18,914 MW
Other˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙ 50 MW(0.1%)˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙ 643 MW
Natural Gas˙˙˙˙˙˙ 29,618 MW(45.0%)˙˙˙˙ 69,425 MW
Coal and Lignite˙˙ 6,609 MW(10.0%)˙˙˙˙ 13,705 MW
Nuclear˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙ 3,844 MW(5.8%)˙˙˙˙˙˙ 5,268 MW
I guess the author of that article counted the nuclear as a renewable
because those units only shut down for refueling every 18 months.
And ERCOT says that the battery storage is almost 4X what your
article claims.
Lynn
Yesterday I saw claims that wind and solar now produce more electricity
than gas, worldwide, not just in Texas.
pt
Capacity (total mw) or Energy (annual mwh)?˙ Two very different things.
I would guess that Coal produces more energy than anything else
worldwide.˙ But solar is catching up fast since the ultra cheap solar
panels from China went into production 7 ? 8 ? 9 ? years ago.
Lynn
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/texas-just-ran-its-entire-grid-on-wind-solar-and-batteries-alone-for-hours-renewables-briefly-powering- the-nation-s-biggest-energy-state-with-no-gas-or-coal/ar-AA23X36k?
What we still do not know-----------^^^^^^^^^
Several important details remain unconfirmed. ERCOT publishes generation-by-fuel data, but the granular, minute-by-minute dispatch
records that would pin down exactly when gas and coal output hit zero
have not been independently verified through those primary datasets as
of early June 2026. Social media posts from grid-monitoring accounts
flagged the event in real time, but those are timeline markers, not[...]
official records.
The Future Has Arrived!
(This is not about the fruit,
Nor is this about romantic encounters,
Nor about other scheduled appointments,
This merely regards the kind of date that is a topic of ISO 8601.)
On 2026-05-24, Dimensional Traveler wrote:
[...]
What we still do not know-----------^^^^^^^^^
Several important details remain unconfirmed. ERCOT publishes
generation-by-fuel data, but the granular, minute-by-minute dispatch
records that would pin down exactly when gas and coal output hit zero
have not been independently verified through those primary datasets as
of early June 2026. Social media posts from grid-monitoring accounts
flagged the event in real time, but those are timeline markers, not[...]
official records.
The Future Has Arrived!
Literally? :-P
I gather that was supposed to read "2025"?
On 5/24/2026 5:47 PM, Dimensional Traveler wrote:
When you say
"Texas had installed roughly 5 gigawatts of battery storage capacity by >early 2025, second only to California nationally. Those batteries absorb >cheap solar power during midday hours, when panels flood the market and >wholesale prices sometimes drop to zero or below, then discharge it in
the evening when demand climbs and prices rise.",
Be sure to mention that the "cheap solar power" is highly subsidized by
the USA federal government. I saw a figure lately quoting that subsidy
as costing the federal government $600 billion per year now which I
found hard to believe.
On 5/24/2026 8:10 PM, Lynn McGuire wrote:happened
On 5/24/2026 7:04 PM, Cryptoengineer wrote:
On 5/24/2026 7:10 PM, Lynn McGuire wrote:
On 5/24/2026 5:47 PM, Dimensional Traveler wrote:
For a few hours on a breezy spring night in 2025, something
on the Texas power grid that would have been unthinkable a decade
ago: every megawatt flowing to homes, hospitals, and factories
across the state came from wind turbines, solar panels, and battery
storage. Natural gas plants sat idle. Coal plants produced nothing.
The Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or ERCOT, the operator
that manages power for roughly 90 percent of the state, carried its
logs,load entirely on renewables and stored energy.
The interval was short, likely a handful of overnight hours when
demand dipped and West Texas winds surged. It has not yet been
pinned down to the minute in publicly available ERCOT dispatch
inand important caveats apply. But the fact that it happened at all
the nation?s largest energy-producing state, a place that still
pumps more oil and gas than any other, marks a threshold worth
understanding.
Solar is already outpacing coal in Texas
The renewables-only hours did not emerge from nowhere. They sit on
top of a trend that federal data has been tracking for months.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, monthly
solar generation in ERCOT exceeded coal for the first time in March
West2025. That was not a rounding error. Solar panels spread across
Texas, the Permian Basin?s fringes, and the Coastal Bend
collectively produced more electricity in a single month than every
grid.remaining coal plant in the state combined.
The EIA projects the gap will keep widening. In its forecast for
2026, the agency estimates annual solar generation in ERCOT will
reach roughly 78 billion kilowatt-hours, compared with about 60
billion from coal. If that holds, 2026 would be the first full
calendar year in which solar outproduces coal across the Texas
The 18-billion- kilowatt-hour difference is large enough to power
more than 1.5 million average American homes for a year, based on
the EIA?s own household consumption benchmarks.
To put that in perspective, natural gas still generates the largest
onshare of ERCOT?s electricity, typically around 40 to 50 percent
shiftingan annual basis, according to EIA generation data. Texas is not
about to abandon fossil fuels overnight. But the balance is
springfaster than most grid planners expected even three years ago.
Batteries are filling the gaps wind and solar leave behind
Wind has been the workhorse of Texas renewables for years. On
utility-scalenights, strong gusts across the Panhandle and Gulf Coast routinely
push wind output high just as residential demand falls, creating
long stretches when turbines alone can cover a huge share of the
grid?s needs. What changed recently is the arrival of
batteries at meaningful volume.
Texas had installed roughly 5 gigawatts of battery storage capacity
batteriesby early 2025, second only to California nationally. Those
absorb cheap solar power during midday hours, when panels flood the
Thatmarket and wholesale prices sometimes drop to zero or below, then
discharge it in the evening when demand climbs and prices rise.
arbitrage is what makes the economics work for storage developers,
and it is also what makes renewables-only grid operation possible
after sunset.
During the reported renewables-only interval, batteries likely
discharged stored solar and wind energy to cover the gap between
what turbines were producing in real time and what the grid needed.
toWithout that stored power, gas turbines would have been called on
dispatchfill the shortfall within minutes.
What we still do not know
Several important details remain unconfirmed. ERCOT publishes
generation-by-fuel data, but the granular, minute-by-minute
records that would pin down exactly when gas and coal output hit
zero have not been independently verified through those primary
datasets as of early June 2026. Social media posts from grid-
monitoring accounts flagged the event in real time, but those are
timeline markers, not official records.
The timing matters enormously. Running the grid on renewables for a
tofew hours on a mild spring night, when demand might sit around 30
so35 gigawatts, is a fundamentally different proposition than doing
on an August afternoon, when air conditioners across Houston,
Dallas, San Antonio, and Austin push demand above 80 gigawatts. The
season, the hour, and the load level all shape how significant a
renewables- only stretch really is for long-term planning.
There is also the question of standby capacity. Gas plants that are
turbinesidling but ready to ramp within minutes provide a safety net that
raw generation numbers do not capture. Without detailed ancillary-
services data from ERCOT, it is hard to say whether the grid was
truly operating with no fossil fuel backstop or whether gas
trippedwere quietly standing in reserve, ready to fire if a turbine
squeezesoffline or a battery bank hit its discharge limit.
Why it matters for electricity bills and grid planning
For the roughly 30 million Texans served by ERCOT, the shift in
generation mix is already showing up in wholesale electricity
prices. Midday prices have been compressed by solar output,
sometimes turning negative when supply outstrips demand. That
benefits consumers on plans tied to wholesale rates, but it
profit margins for gas generators that used to count on selling
power during those hours. Battery operators, meanwhile, are
profiting from the spread between cheap midday electricity and more
expensive evening power.
ERCOT?s energy-only market design, which pays generators only for
coststhe power they actually deliver rather than for keeping capacity
available, amplifies these dynamics. Renewables with zero fuel
can undercut gas plants on price whenever the wind blows or the sun
shines, accelerating the economic pressure on thermal generation
even without mandates or subsidies driving the shift.
For grid reliability, the central question is not whether Texas can
occasionally run on renewables alone but how often and under what
conditions. Winter Storm Uri in February 2021 exposed how badly the
grid can fail when extreme weather knocks out generation of all
types simultaneously. Planners will be watching three variables
closely: how fast battery storage scales beyond its current
capacity, whether demand- side flexibility programs can shave peaks
Itduring heat waves, and whether transmission upgrades can move
surplus wind and solar power from remote West Texas to the urban
load centers hundreds of miles away.
A fossil fuel state crossing its own milestones
The EIA?s 2026 solar forecast is a projection, not a guarantee.
whichdepends on planned solar farms actually reaching commercial
operation, on weather cooperating, and on no major policy or
permitting disruptions stalling construction. The agency has
historically underestimated the pace of U.S. solar deployment,
currentlysuggests the crossover could arrive at a wider margin than
quicklyprojected. But supply chain bottlenecks, interconnection queue
delays, or shifts in federal energy policy could slow things down
just as easily.
What the verified data supports as of mid-2026 is straightforward.
Solar has already displaced coal in the Texas generation mix on at
least a monthly basis, documented by federal statistics. The
physical capability to run the grid on wind, solar, and batteries
alone, at least for limited periods under favorable conditions, is
no longer theoretical. And the economic incentives pulling capital
toward renewables and storage in ERCOT show no sign of reversing.
Whether those spring overnight hours turn out to be a curiosity or
an early signal of something more routine will depend on how
storage scales, how resilient the grid proves under stress, and how
the-nation-s-biggest-energy-state-with-no-gas-or-Texas balances its deep ties to oil and gas against the raw
economics of electrons that cost nothing to fuel. The next few
summers and winters will provide the answer.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/texas-just-ran-its-entire-
grid- on-wind-solar-and-batteries-alone-for-hours-renewables-
briefly- powering-
Monthly Capacitycoal/ar- AA23X36k? ocid=hpmsn
The Future Has Arrived!
Right now:
?? https://www.ercot.com/
??????????????? Current Generation?
38,563 MWSolar???????????? 20,788 MW(31.5%)????
MW(7.3%)????? 40,736 MWWind?????????????? 4,803
MW(0.2%)???????? 579 MWHydro??????????????? 156
18,914 MWPower Storage???????? 23 MW(0.0%)?????
MW(0.1%)???????? 643 MWOther???????????????? 50
MW(5.8%)?????? 5,268 MWNatural Gas?????? 29,618 MW(45.0%)???? 69,425 MW
Coal and Lignite?? 6,609 MW(10.0%)???? 13,705 MW
Nuclear??????????? 3,844
renewable
I guess the author of that article counted the nuclear as a
electricitybecause those units only shut down for refueling every 18 months.
And ERCOT says that the battery storage is almost 4X what your
article claims.
Lynn
Yesterday I saw claims that wind and solar now produce more
things.than gas, worldwide, not just in Texas.
pt
Capacity (total mw) or Energy (annual mwh)?? Two very different
solar
I would guess that Coal produces more energy than anything else
worldwide.? But solar is catching up fast since the ultra cheap
generation.panels from China went into production 7 ? 8 ? 9 ? years ago.
Lynn
I said production, and I meant production.
Yes, coal is still king worldwide. >https://ember-energy.org/latest-updates/for-the-first-time-wind-and-sola r-generated-more-electricity-than-gas-worldwide-in-april-2026/
But not in the EU, where fossil fuels account for only 29% of
https://ember-energy.org/latest-updates/for-the-first-time-wind-and-sola r-generated-more-electricity-than-gas-worldwide-in-april-2026/p
The US is dragging its feet. We still generate 57% of our electricity
from fossil fuels, with coal dropping rapidly.
https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/electricity/electricity-in-the-us.ph
On 5/24/2026 8:05 PM, Lynn McGuire wrote:
On 5/24/2026 7:02 PM, Cryptoengineer wrote:
On 5/24/2026 7:02 PM, Lynn McGuire wrote:
Be sure to mention that the "cheap solar power" is highly subsidized
by the USA federal government.˙ I saw a figure lately quoting that
subsidy as costing the federal government $600 billion per year now
which I found hard to believe.
Lynn
How much are the subsidies and tax breaks for fossil fuels?
pt
Zero.
Really?
https://legalclarity.org/fossil-fuel-subsidies-tax-breaks-costs-and-reform/
Lynn McGuire <lynnmcguire5@gmail.com> writes:
On 5/24/2026 5:47 PM, Dimensional Traveler wrote:
When you say
"Texas had installed roughly 5 gigawatts of battery storage capacity by
early 2025, second only to California nationally. Those batteries absorb
cheap solar power during midday hours, when panels flood the market and
wholesale prices sometimes drop to zero or below, then discharge it in
the evening when demand climbs and prices rise.",
Be sure to mention that the "cheap solar power" is highly subsidized by
the USA federal government. I saw a figure lately quoting that subsidy
as costing the federal government $600 billion per year now which I
found hard to believe.
You like saw that figure on that entertainment website run by a former
TV weather broadcaster.
Such projects are generally eligable for the Federal ITC (Investment Tax Credit), with conditions, up to 30%.
Apparently, someone in the Oval Office is /not/
willing to treat coal as something whose time
has passed.
On 2026-05-25, Paul S Person <psperson@old.netcom.invalid> wrote:
Apparently, someone in the Oval Office is /not/
willing to treat coal as something whose time
has passed.
Have you considered running for Oval Office,
winning, and then doing everything The Right
Way in accord with ancient wisdom on who
needs to be the doer when one wants
something done right?
Because posting about such here in hopes of
that leadings to things being done Right is
probably closer to being yet another form
of screaming at the sky.
On Tue, 26 May 2026 10:54:45 -0000 (UTC), oldernow <oldernow@dev.null>
wrote:
On 2026-05-25, Paul S Person <psperson@old.netcom.invalid> wrote:
Apparently, someone in the Oval Office is /not/
willing to treat coal as something whose time
has passed.
Have you considered running for Oval Office,
winning, and then doing everything The Right
Way in accord with ancient wisdom on who
needs to be the doer when one wants
something done right?
Nope.
Too lazy.
Because posting about such here in hopes of
that leadings to things being done Right is
probably closer to being yet another form
of screaming at the sky.
Too many facts?
Too much reality?
Really got to you, eh?
On 5/24/2026 8:05 PM, Lynn McGuire wrote:
On 5/24/2026 7:02 PM, Cryptoengineer wrote:
On 5/24/2026 7:02 PM, Lynn McGuire wrote:
Be sure to mention that the "cheap solar power" is highly subsidized
by the USA federal government.˙ I saw a figure lately quoting that
subsidy as costing the federal government $600 billion per year now
which I found hard to believe.
Lynn
How much are the subsidies and tax breaks for fossil fuels?
pt
Zero.
Really?
https://legalclarity.org/fossil-fuel-subsidies-tax-breaks-costs-and-reform/
Fossil Fuel Subsidies: Tax Breaks, Costs, and Reform
- quotes (not the whole article) -
Fossil fuel subsidies are federal tax breaks, below-market leasing
terms, and other financial advantages that reduce the cost of producing
oil, natural gas, and coal. The U.S. Treasury estimates these provisions will cost roughly $820 million in forgone federal revenue in fiscal year 2026 alone, though broader definitions that include infrastructure
support and liability protections push that figure considerably higher.
Tax Breaks for Drilling and Exploration
The most valuable upfront tax break for oil and gas companies is the deduction for intangible drilling costs. These are the expenses that
don?t produce a salvageable physical asset: labor, chemicals, mud,
grading, and similar costs incurred while drilling a well. They
typically make up 60 to 80 percent of total drilling costs for a new well.
Percentage Depletion
Oil, gas, and coal are finite resources. As a producer extracts them,
the deposit loses value, so the tax code allows a deduction for
?depletion? that works like depreciation for a building or machine.
... A well that cost $1 million to develop can generate depletion
deductions totaling $3 million or more over its lifetime if production remains profitable.
Master Limited Partnerships
Most publicly traded companies pay corporate income tax on their
profits. Master limited partnerships, or MLPs, avoid this entirely. As
long as at least 90 percent of an MLP?s income comes from qualifying
sources ? which explicitly include oil and gas exploration, production, processing, refining, and transportation ? the entity?s income passes through directly to investors and is taxed only at individual rates.
This eliminates the double taxation that applies to regular corporations
and makes it significantly cheaper for pipeline companies and other midstream energy firms to raise capital.
Capital Gains Treatment of Coal Royalties
Royalties from coal sales are taxed at the lower capital gains rate
rather than as ordinary income. This provision costs the Treasury an estimated $50 million in 2026.1
Federal Land Leasing and Royalty Rates
Companies that drill on federal land pay the government for the
privilege, but the terms have historically been well below what private landowners charge.
- end quotes -
Are you going to stand by 'zero'?
pt
You like saw that figure on that entertainment website run by a former
TV weather broadcaster.
For a few hours on a breezy spring night in 2025, something happened on
the Texas power grid that would have been unthinkable a decade ago:
every megawatt flowing to homes, hospitals, and factories across the
state came from wind turbines, solar panels, and battery storage.
Natural gas plants sat idle. Coal plants produced nothing. The Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or ERCOT, the operator that manages power
for roughly 90 percent of the state, carried its load entirely on
renewables and stored energy.
Yesterday I saw claims that wind and solar now produce more
electricity than gas, worldwide, not just in Texas.
On Sun, 24 May 2026 20:04:40 -0400, Cryptoengineer wrote:
Yesterday I saw claims that wind and solar now produce more
electricity than gas, worldwide, not just in Texas.
China has somehow managed to build up an edge in cheap power
generation, primarily from renewables <https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/5/28/chinas-secret-weapon-in-ai-race-with-us-lots-of-cheap-energy>.
This may give it an edge in the burgeoning AI industry, as the US hits trouble when generation companies prioritize industrial customers over residential ones.
On Sun, 24 May 2026 20:04:40 -0400, Cryptoengineer wrote:
Yesterday I saw claims that wind and solar now produce more
electricity than gas, worldwide, not just in Texas.
China has somehow managed to build up an edge in cheap power
generation, primarily from renewables ><https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/5/28/chinas-secret-weapon-in-ai- race-with-us-lots-of-cheap-energy>.
This may give it an edge in the burgeoning AI industry, as the US hits >trouble when generation companies prioritize industrial customers over >residential ones.
I don't trust any numbers coming out of China without independent verification that the Chinese did not bribe.
Lynn McGuire wrote:
I don't trust any numbers coming out of China without independent verification that the Chinese did not bribe.
I wonder where you think they get the money from, to do the bribing
...
I got these dates from the future:
2026-11 midterms
2026-11-29 Grand Theft Auto 6
2027-09-30 cessation of news.individual.net
2028 extremely large telescope scheduled to be in use
2029-04-13 the asteroid Apophis is near Earth
2038-01-19 the Unix Epoch is ending at 03:14:08
2063-04-05 first use of a warp drive by humans
I dunno - the GTA people seem about as eager to get the next in their
prize series out as the Bethesda games people (Morrowind, Oblivion, >Skyrim...) though in the latter case they seem to be prioritizing The
Elder Scrolls Online though I can't believe it's as big a moneymaker
for them as TES6 would be (TES5 Skyrim is now over 10 years old and
the company has been through 2 takeovers)
I completely agree with you on the financial benefits of TES6 vs TESO
They do seem to be shooting themselves in the foot as I'm still
playing Morrowind and while I've gone with the various upgrades which
has given them SOME $$$ it's unlikely to be as much as TES6 would be.
(I'm expecting that TES6 if and when would also have the same level of >upgrades that TES5 did)
| Sysop: | Tetrazocine |
|---|---|
| Location: | Melbourne, VIC, Australia |
| Users: | 14 |
| Nodes: | 8 (0 / 8) |
| Uptime: | 227:08:04 |
| Calls: | 218 |
| Files: | 21,503 |
| Messages: | 82,858 |