Without fully implementing net-zero pledges, the world will miss climate
goals

Date:
June 8, 2023
Source:
Imperial College London
Summary:
Without more legally binding and well-planned net-zero policies,
the world is highly likely to miss key climate targets.


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==========================================================================
FULL STORY ========================================================================== Without more legally binding and well-planned net-zero policies, the
world is highly likely to miss key climate targets.

In the new study, led by Imperial College London and published today
in Science, researchers ranked 90% of global net-zero greenhouse
gas emissions pledges as providing low confidence in their full
implementation.

The researchers recommend nations make their targets legally binding
and back them up with long-term plans and short-term implementation
policies to increase the likelihood of avoiding the worst impacts of
climate change.

Lead researcher Professor Joeri Rogelj, director of research for the
Grantham Institute at Imperial, said: "Climate policy is moving from
setting ambitious targets to implementing them. However, our analysis
shows most countries do not provide high confidence that they will
deliver on their commitments. The world is still on a high-risk climate
track, and we are far from delivering a safe climate future." Assigning confidence Climate goals set out in the Paris Agreement include keeping temperature rises well below 2DEGC above the average temperature before
the industrial revolution and ideally below 1.5DEGC. The main way to
achieve this is the reach 'net-zero' greenhouse gas emissions as soon
as possible, where any remaining emissions are effectively offset.

Most countries have set net-zero goals and Nationally Determined
Contributions (NDCs) -- non-binding national plans proposing climate
actions. Taking these plans at face value, and assuming they will all be
fully implemented, gives the world a chance of keeping warming to 1.5-2
degrees C. But taking current policies only, with no implementation of
net-zero pledges, means models predict temperature rises could be as
much as 2.5-3 degrees C by 2100, with warming still increasing.

To reduce the uncertainty in which of these scenarios is likely to happen,
the team, including researchers from the UK, Austria, USA, Netherlands, Germany, and Brazil, assigned a 'confidence' to each net-zero policy. They assessed 35 net zero targets, covering every country with more than 0.1%
of current global greenhouse gas emissions.

The confidence assessment was based on three policy characteristics:
whether the policy was legally binding, whether there was a credible
policy plan guiding implementation, and whether short-term plans would
already put emissions on a downward path over the next decade.

Based on this, policies were given 'higher', 'lower' or 'much lower'
confidence of being fully implemented. Some regions scored highly,
including the European Union, the United Kingdom and New Zealand, but
around 90% scored 'lower' or 'much lower' confidence, including China
and the US, which together account for more than 35% of current emissions.

Modelling emissions From this assessment, the team modelled five scenarios
of future greenhouse gas emissions and resulting temperatures. These were: considering only current policies (the most conservative scenario); only
adding in policies that have a high confidence of being implemented;
adding policies with high and low confidence; adding all policies
regardless of confidence as if they are implemented; and a scenario
where all policies are fully implemented and all NDCs are met (the most forgiving scenario).

The most conservative scenario had the largest uncertainty, with a
range of 1.7-3DEGC and a median estimate of 2.6DEGC. The most optimistic scenario has a range of 1.6-2.1, with a median estimate of 1.7DEGC. This
might suggest that, if all net-zero policies are fully implemented, the
Paris Agreement goals are withing reach. However, with so many policies
ranked in the low-confidence end of the scale, this would be wishful
thinking in absence of further efforts.

Co-author Taryn Fransen, from the World Resources Institute in
Washington DC, and the Energy and Resources Group at the University
of California-Berkeley, said: "Climate change targets are by their
nature ambitious -- there's no point in setting a target for a foregone conclusion. But implementation must follow." Catalysing action Only
twelve out of 35 net zero policies are currently legally binding,
and the researchers say increasing this number would help ensure the
policies survive long-term and catalyse action. Countries also need
clear implementation pathways for different sectors, outlining exactly
what changes are needed and where the responsibility lies.

Co-author Dr Robin Lamboll, from the Centre for Environmental Policy at Imperial, said: "Making targets legally binding is crucial to ensure
long-term plans are adopted. We need to see concrete legislation in
order to trust that action will follow from promises." The team included researchers from Imperial College London (UK) the International Institute
for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria), the World Resources Institute
(US), the University of California-Berkeley (US), the Netherlands
Environmental Assessment Agency, the Institute for Environmental Studies (Netherlands), the NewClimate Institute (Germany), the Copernicus
Institute of Sustainable Development (Netherlands), and the Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (Brazil).

* RELATED_TOPICS
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========================================================================== Story Source: Materials provided by Imperial_College_London. Original
written by Hayley Dunning. Note: Content may be edited for style and
length.


========================================================================== Journal Reference:
1. Joeri Rogelj, Taryn Fransen, Michel G. J. den Elzen, Robin
D. Lamboll,
Clea Schumer, Takeshi Kuramochi, Frederic Hans, Silke Mooldijk,
Joana Portugal-Pereira. Credibility gap in net-zero climate targets
leaves world at high risk. Science, 2023; 380 (6649): 1014 DOI:
10.1126/ science.adg6428 ==========================================================================

Link to news story: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2023/06/230608195634.htm

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