Greenhouse gas emissions at 'an all-time high' -- and it is causing an unprecedented rate of global warming, say scientists

Date:
June 8, 2023
Source:
University of Leeds
Summary:
Human-induced warming, largely caused by the burning of fossil
fuels, reached an average of 1.14DEGC for the most recent decade
(2013 to 2022) above pre-industrial levels. This is up from
1.07DEGC between 2010 and 2019. Human-induced warming is now
increasing at a pace of over 0.2DEGC per decade. The analysis also
found that greenhouse gas emissions were 'at an all-time high',
with human activity resulting in the equivalent of 54 (+/-5.3)
gigatonnes (or billion metric tonnes) of carbon dioxide being
released into the atmosphere on average every year over the last
decade (2012-2021). Given the speed at which the global climate
system is changing, the scientists argue that policymakers,
climate negotiators and civil society groups need to have access
to up-to-date and robust scientific evidence on which to base
decisions.


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FULL STORY ========================================================================== Human-caused global warming has continued to increase at an "unprecedented rate" since the last major assessment of the climate system published
two years ago, say 50 leading scientists.

One of the researchers said the analysis was a "timely wake-up call"
that the pace and scale of climate action has been insufficient, and
it comes as climate experts meet in Bonn to prepare the ground for the
major COP28 climate conference in the UAE in December, which will include
a stocktake of progress towards keeping global warming to 1.5DEGC by 2050.

Given the speed at which the global climate system is changing, the
scientists argue that policymakers, climate negotiators and civil society groups need to have access to up-to-date and robust scientific evidence
on which to base decisions.

The authoritative source of scientific information on the state of the
climate is the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) but
the turnaround time for its major assessments is five or ten years, and
that creates an "information gap," particularly when climate indicators
are changing rapidly.

In an initiative being led by the University of Leeds, the scientists
have developed an open data, open science platform -- the Indicators of
Global Climate Change and website (https://igcc.earth/). It will update information on key climate indicators every year.

Critical decade for climate change The Indicators of Global Climate Change Project is being co-ordinated by Professor Piers Forster, Director of
the Priestley Centre for Climate Futures at Leeds. He said: "This is
the critical decade for climate change.

"Decisions made now will have an impact on how much temperatures will
rise and the degree and severity of impacts we will see as a result.

"Long-term warming rates are currently at a long-term high, caused by
highest- ever levels of greenhouse gas emissions. But there is evidence
that the rate of increase in greenhouse gas emissions has slowed.

"We need to be nimble footed in the face of climate change. We need to
change policy and approaches in the light of the latest evidence about
the state of the climate system. Time is no longer on our side. Access
to up-to-date information is vitally important." Writing in the journal
Earth System Science Data, the scientists have revealed how key indicators
have changed since the publication of the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Working
Group 1 report in 2021- which produced the key data that fed into the subsequent IPCC Sixth Synthesis Report.

What the updated indicators show Human-induced warming, largely caused
by the burning of fossil fuels, reached an average of 1.14DEGC for the
most recent decade (2013 to 2022) above pre- industrial levels. This is
up from 1.07DEGC between 2010 and 2019.

Human-induced warming is now increasing at a pace of over 0.2DEGC
per decade.

The analysis also found that greenhouse gas emissions were "at an
all-time high," with human activity resulting in the equivalent of 54
(+/-5.3) gigatonnes (or billion metric tonnes) of carbon dioxide being
released into the atmosphere on average every year over the last decade (2012-2021).

There has been positive move away from burning coal, yet this has come
at a short-term cost in that it has added to global warming by reducing particulate pollution in the air, which has a cooling effect.

'Indicators critical to address climate crisis' Professor Maisa Rojas
Corradi, Minister of the Environment in Chile, IPCC author and a scientist involved in this study, said: "An annual update of key indicators of
global change is critical in helping the international community and
countries to keep the urgency of addressing the climate crisis at the
top of the agenda and for evidence-based decision-making.

"In line with the "ratchet-mechanism" of increasing ambition envisioned
by the Paris Agreement we need scientific information about emissions, concentration, and temperature as often as possible to keep international climate negotiations up to date and to be able to adjust and if necessary correct national policies.

"In the case of Chile, we have a climate change law that aims at aligning government-wide policies with climate action." Remaining carbon budget
One of the major findings of the analysis is the rate of decline in what
is known as the remaining carbon budget, an estimate of how much carbon
that can be released into the atmosphere to give a 50% chance of keeping
global temperature rise within 1.5DEGC.

In 2020, the IPCC calculated the remaining carbon budget was around
500 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide. By the start of 2023, the figure was
roughly half that at around 250 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide.

The reduction in the estimated remaining carbon budget is due to a
combination of continued emissions since 2020 and updated estimates of human-induced warming.

Professor Forster said: "Even though we are not yet at 1.5DEGC warming,
the carbon budget will likely be exhausted in only a few years as we have
a triple whammy of heating from very high CO2 emissions, heating from
increases in other GHG emissions and heating from reductions in pollution.

"If we don't want to see the 1.5DEGC goal disappearing in our rearview
mirror, the world must work much harder and urgently at bringing
emissions down.

"Our aim is for this project to help the key players urgently make
that important work happen with up-to-date and timely data at their fingertips." Dr Vale'rie Masson-Delmotte, from the Universite' Paris
Saclay who co-chaired Working Group 1 of the IPCC's Sixth Assessment
report and was involved in the climate indicators project, said: "This
robust update shows intensifying heating of our climate driven by human activities. It is a timely wake up call for the 2023 global stocktake
of the Paris Agreement -- the pace and scale of climate action is not sufficient to limit the escalation of climate-related risks." As recent
IPCC reports have conclusively shown, with every further increment of
global warming, the frequency and intensity of climate extremes, including
hot extremes, heavy rainfall and agricultural droughts, increases.

The Indicators of Global Climate Change (https://igcc.earth/) will have annually updated information on greenhouse gas emissions, human-induced
global warming and the remaining carbon budget.

The website extends a successful climate dashboard called the Climate
Change Tracker which was created by software developers who took ideas
from the finance industry on how to present complex information to
the public.

Summary: Greenhouse gas emissions at 'an all-time high' -- and it is
causing an unprecedented rate of global warming, say scientists
* Human-induced warming averaged 1.14DEGC over the last decade *
A record level of greenhouse gases is being emitted each year,
equivalent
to 54 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide
* The remaining carbon budget -- how much carbon dioxide can be
emitted to
have a better than 50% chance of holding global warming to 1.5DEGC
-- has halved over three years
* Leading scientists have today launched a project to update key
climate
indicators every year, so people can be kept informed about critical
aspects of global warming
* RELATED_TOPICS
o Earth_&_Climate
# Global_Warming # Climate # Environmental_Issues
o Fossils_&_Ruins
# Early_Climate # Human_Evolution # Fossils
o Science_&_Society
# Environmental_Policies # Resource_Shortage #
World_Development
* RELATED_TERMS
o Global_warming o Global_warming_controversy o
Climate_change_mitigation o Attribution_of_recent_climate_change
o Fossil_fuel o Consensus_of_scientists_regarding_global_warming
o Sulfur_hexafluoride o Climate_engineering

========================================================================== Story Source: Materials provided by University_of_Leeds. Note: Content
may be edited for style and length.


========================================================================== Journal Reference:
1. Piers M. Forster, Christopher J. Smith, Tristram Walsh, William
F. Lamb,
Robin Lamboll, Mathias Hauser, Aure'lien Ribes, Debbie Rosen, Nathan
Gillett, Matthew D. Palmer, Joeri Rogelj, Karina von Schuckmann,
Sonia I.

Seneviratne, Blair Trewin, Xuebin Zhang, Myles Allen, Robbie
Andrew, Arlene Birt, Alex Borger, Tim Boyer, Jiddu A. Broersma,
Lijing Cheng, Frank Dentener, Pierre Friedlingstein, Jose'
M. Gutie'rrez, Johannes Gu"tschow, Bradley Hall, Masayoshi Ishii,
Stuart Jenkins, Xin Lan, June- Yi Lee, Colin Morice, Christopher
Kadow, John Kennedy, Rachel Killick, Jan C. Minx, Vaishali Naik,
Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich
Schleussner, Sophie Szopa, Peter Thorne, Robert Rohde, Maisa
Rojas Corradi, Dominik Schumacher, Russell Vose, Kirsten Zickfeld,
Vale'rie Masson-Delmotte, Panmao Zhai. Indicators of Global Climate
Change 2022: annual update of large-scale indicators of the state
of the climate system and human influence. Earth System Science
Data, 2023; 15 (6): 2295 DOI: 10.5194/essd-15-2295-2023 ==========================================================================

Link to news story: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2023/06/230608121013.htm

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