Record-breaking heat in the summer of 2022 caused more than 61,000
deaths in Europe

Date:
July 10, 2023
Source:
Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal)
Summary:
The summer of 2022 was the hottest summer ever recorded in Europe
and was characterized by an intense series of record-breaking heat
waves, droughts and forest fires. A study now estimates 61,672
heat-attributable deaths between 30 May and 4 September 2022. The
research team obtained temperature and mortality data for the
period 2015-2022 for 823 regions in 35 European countries, whose
total population represents more than 543 million people. These
data were used to estimate epidemiological models and predict
temperature-attributable mortality for each region and week of
the summer period.


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FULL STORY ==========================================================================
The summer of 2022 was the hottest summer ever recorded in Europe and was characterised by an intense series of record-breaking heat waves, droughts
and forest fires. While Eurostat, the European statistical office, already reported unusually high excess mortality for those dates, until now the fraction of mortality attributable to heat had not been quantified. This
is precisely what has been done in a study led by the Barcelona Institute
for Global Health (ISGlobal), a centre supported by the "la Caixa"
Foundation, in collaboration with the French National Institute of Health (Inserm). The analysis, published in Nature Medicine, estimates 61,672 heat-attributable deaths between 30 May and 4 September 2022.

The research team obtained temperature and mortality data for the
period 2015- 2022 for 823 regions in 35 European countries, whose total population represents more than 543 million people. These data were used
to estimate epidemiological models and predict temperature-attributable mortality for each region and week of the summer period.

The summer of 2022 was a season of unrelenting heat. Records show that temperatures were warmer-than-average during every week of the summer
period.

The highest temperature anomalies were recorded during the hottest month,
from mid-July to mid-August. This coincidence magnified, according to
the researchers, heat-related mortality, causing 38,881 deaths between
11 July and 14 August. Within that period of just over a month there
was an intense pan- European heatwave between 18 and 24 July, to which
a total of 11,637 deaths are attributed.

Most affected countries In absolute terms, the country with the highest
number of heat-attributable deaths over the entire summer of 2022 was
Italy, with a total of 18,010 deaths, followed by Spain (11,324) and
Germany (8,173).

If the data is ordered by heat-related mortality rate, the top country
is Italy, with 295 deaths per million, followed by Greece (280), Spain
(237) and Portugal (211). The European average was estimated at 114
deaths per million.

On the other hand, looking only at temperature anomalies, the country
with warmest value was France, with +2.43DEGC above the average values
for the period 1991-2020, followed by Switzerland (+2.30DEGC), Italy (+2.28DEGC), Hungary (+2.13DEGC) and Spain (+2.11DEGC).

63% higher mortality in women The study included an analysis by age and
sex, showing a very marked increase in mortality in the older age groups,
and especially in women. Thus, it is estimated that there were 4,822
deaths among those under 65, 9,226 deaths among those between 65 and 79,
and 36,848 deaths among those over 79.

In terms of gender analysis, the data show that heat-attributable
mortality was 63% higher in women than in men, with a total of 35,406
premature deaths (145 deaths per million), compared to an estimated
21,667 deaths in men (93 deaths per million). This greater vulnerability
of women to heat is observed in the population as a whole and, above
all, in those over 80 years of age, where the mortality rate is 27%
higher than that of men. In contrast, the male mortality rate is 41%
higher in those under 65, and 13% higher in those aged 65-79.

Lessons from the 2003 heatwave To date, the highest summer mortality
in Europe was registered in 2003, when over 70,000 excess deaths were
recorded.

"The summer of 2003 was an exceptionally rare phenomenon, even when
taking into account the anthropogenic warming observed until then. This exceptional nature highlighted the lack of prevention plans and the
fragility of health systems to cope with climate-related emergencies,
something that was to some extent addressed in subsequent years," explains
Joan Ballester Claramunt, first author of the study and researcher at
ISGlobal, who holds a grant from the European Research Council.

"In contrast, the temperatures recorded in the summer of 2022 cannot be considered exceptional, in the sense that they could have been predicted
by following the temperature series of previous years, and that they
show that warming has accelerated over the last decade," adds Ballester.

"The fact that more than 61,600 people in Europe died of heat stress
in the summer of 2022, even though, unlike in 2003, many countries
already had active prevention plans in place, suggests that the
adaptation strategies currently available may still be insufficient,"
says Hicham Achebak, researcher at Inserm and ISGlobal and last author
of the study. "The acceleration of warming observed over the last ten
years underlines the urgent need to reassess and substantially strengthen prevention plans, paying particular attention to the differences between European countries and regions, as well as the age and gender gaps,
which currently mark the differences in vulnerability to heat," he adds.

Europe is the continent experiencing the greatest warming, up to 1DEGC
more than the global average. Estimates by the research team suggest
that, in the absence of an effective adaptive response, the continent
will face an average of more than 68,000 premature deaths each summer
by 2030 and more than 94,000 by 2040.

* RELATED_TOPICS
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* RELATED_TERMS
o Solstice o Bushfire o Climate_model o Year_Without_a_Summer
o Temperature_record_of_the_past_1000_years o
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Story Source: Materials provided by Barcelona_Institute_for_Global_Health_(ISGlobal). Note: Content may be
edited for style and length.


========================================================================== Journal Reference:
1. Joan Ballester, Marcos Quijal-Zamorano, Rau'l Fernando Me'ndez
Turrubiates, Ferran Pegenaute, Franc,ois R. Herrmann, Jean Marie
Robine, Xavier Basagan~a, Cathryn Tonne, Josep M. Anto', Hicham
Achebak. Heat- related mortality in Europe during the summer of
2022. Nature Medicine, 2023; DOI: 10.1038/s41591-023-02419-z ==========================================================================

Link to news story: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2023/07/230710113917.htm

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