• ARRL Propagation Bulletin

    From Daryl Stout@1:2320/33 to All on Mon Jul 25 11:37:39 2022

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP029
    ARLP029 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP29
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 29 ARLP029
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA July 22, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP029
    ARLP029 Propagation de K7RA

    Solar activity increased over this reporting week, July 14 to 20,
    with average daily sunspot number rising from 102.1 to 137.3, and
    average daily solar flux from 147.4 to 157.6.

    Peak sunspot number was 166 on July 17, and peak solar flux was
    171.4 on July 15.

    Geomagnetic activity peaked on July 19 when planetary A index was 26
    and middle latitude A index at 19. Alaska's high latitude college A
    index was 43, with the K index at 6, 5, 5, 6 and 5 at 0900 to 2000
    UTC.

    Average daily planetary A index decreased this week from 12.4 to
    9.4.

    A crack opened in the earth's magnetic field on July 19, allowing
    solar wind to stream in. It is documented here:

    https://www.spaceweather.com/images2022/19jul22/data.jpg

    At 2241 UTC on July 20 the Australian Space Forecast Centre issued a geomagnetic warning. An increase in geomagnetic activity is
    expected over 22 to 24 July due to the onset of coronal hole high
    speed wind streams."

    Here is the latest forecast from USAF. Predicted solar flux seems
    promising with flux values peaking around 160 on July 30 through
    August 7 and again from August 26 though early September.

    Predicted flux values are 120 on July 22, then 118 on July 23 to 25,
    then 116, 114, 110 and 120 on July 26 to 29, 160 on July 30 through
    August 7, then 155, 145 and 138 on August 8 to 10, then 138 on
    August 11 and 12, then 128 and 125 on August 13 and 14, 130 on
    August 15 to 17, 135 on August 18 to 20, 138 and 148 on August 21
    and 22, 150 on August 23 to 25, and 160 on August 26 to September 3.

    Predicted planetary A index is 20, 40, 14 and 10 on July 22 to 25, 5
    on July 26 to 28, 8 on July 29 through August 2, then 12 and 10 on
    August 3 and 4, 8 on August 5 to 7, then 15, 28 and 12 on August 8
    to 10, 8 on August 11 to 17, then 15, 20 and 12 on August 18 to 20,
    and 8 again on August 21 to 29.

    OK1HH wrote:

    "A week ago we commemorated the BASTILLE DAY EVENT. Twenty-two
    years ago (on the French national holiday of July 14, 2000), the Sun
    sent out a shock wave that reached the edge of the solar system.
    The subatomic particles accelerated by the eruption showered
    satellites and penetrated deep into the Earth's atmosphere.
    Radiation sensors on the Earth's surface detected a rare GLE - a
    ground-level event. And if solar activity continues to grow as it
    is now, we will see something similar in the years to come.

    The most notable recent event was a crack that opened in Earth's
    magnetic field on July 19th, allowing solar wind to enter our
    planet's magnetosphere. The result was a minor G1-class geomagnetic
    storm.

    Starting today, July 21, a slow-moving CME could hit Earth's
    magnetic field (thrown into space by the July 15 solar flare). The
    high-speed stream of the solar wind should follow closely behind the
    CME. Its arrival on July 22nd could intensify any storm the CME
    creates, possibly extending the disturbance until July 23rd.

    In addition, solar activity will decrease in the coming days, which
    combined with G1 is not good for shortwave propagation conditions."

    Rich, K1HTV wrote:

    "Yesterday evening, July 19, 2022 there was an incredible 6 Meter DX
    opening between VK4 and many lucky stations in the U.S. as well as
    the Ontario area.

    At 2311 UTC I decoded VK4MA completing a QSO with KD3CQ in southern
    MD. I was next in line, and quickly worked VK4MA from my FM18ap
    Virginia QTH. I was followed by W3UR, W3LPL, AB3CV, N3OC and W3KX,
    all in MD and KF2T and K4SO in VA.

    Two minutes after working VK4MA I also worked VK4WTN, I also copied
    but did not work VK4HJ.

    I continued to decode the VK4 stations until 2358 UTC. I copied
    VK4MA working K8SIX in MI, W7XU in SD, N0TB in MD, VE3EDY and as far
    northeast as NZ3M in PA, N2OO, W2XI and W2IRT in NJ, W1VD in CT,
    WA1EAZ in MA and K1TOL in Maine, which was Paul's longest ever 6
    Meter DX contact. VK4MA reported logging 27 stations during his
    almost one hour long DX opening to North America.

    To say the least, it was a very memorable opening on the Magic Band.
    The solar flux was near 180 a few days earlier and a K index of 5
    earlier in the day of the opening. Was it F2 skip? Was it TEP?
    Was it SSSP? (Short Path Summer Solstice Propagation, see https://bit.ly/3oswSD3).

    It was some kind of chordal propagation, probably linked to the Es
    opening from the East to Mid-America at the time. I'll leave it up
    to the propagation experts to figure out what mode it was."

    I assume he was using FT8, as Rich said "decoded."

    Jon Jones, N0JK responded:

    "A great report from Rich. I was monitoring at the time. Saw many
    people north and east of Kansas calling VK, but no decodes of VK
    stations. What a great opening!

    As for the propagation mode - my theory is the opening yesterday was
    a "mirror image" of the December-January USA-VK openings. So
    sporadic-E on each end of the path connecting to TEP to cross the
    geomagnetic equator. I have seen K0GU work VK stations in past
    summers on 6 in a similar fashion. The high solar flux helped the
    TEP part of the path. But sporadic-E created the magic."

    George, N2CG has been operating on the 8 meter band with special
    permission from the FCC. Below is an edited version of some of the
    notes he sent me.

    "Back in October 2021 I received from the FCC an experimental radio
    station construction permit and license to operate on 40.66 to 40.7
    MHz and issued the call sign WM2XCS.

    On 26 January 2022 WM2XCS began transmitting as a CW beacon on
    40.685 MHz at 10 Watts output into a vertical ground plane antenna.

    On 26 May I made some changes by removing the vertical antenna and
    in its place installed a 4 element 7 dBd gain Yagi mounted 30 feet
    above ground beaming toward Europe and increased the beacon output
    power from 10 Watts to 20 Watts.

    Now using shorter ID message at 12 WPM, 'VVV DE WM2XCS/B FN20WV NNJ
    AR'. I also increased the output power from 20 Watts to 30 Watts
    that equates to 150 Watts ERP which is the maximum power allowed on
    my experimental license.

    I recently learned that Borut S50B located in Vipava, Slovenia heard
    the WM2XCS CW beacon on 40.685 MHz on 13 June 2022 at 2054 UTC RST
    539."

    WM2XCS/B currently operates daily from 1000 to 0300 UTC.

    You can send reception reports to n2cg@verizon.net.

    I will reply via postal mail with my unique WM2XCS QSL card.
    Indicate in your reception report the date, UTC time, frequency, RST
    report, mode and any remarks.

    If you hear me in QSO with another authorized 8m station, please
    indicate the call sign of that station I was in QSO with. As 8m
    propagation allows I will be looking to have CW and SSB QSOs with
    stations in Ireland, Slovenia and South Africa who currently are
    allowed to operate on 8m.

    I also encouraged reception of WM2XCS/B or WM2XCS to be spotted on
    DXMAPS www.dxmaps.com which lists 40 MHz reception reports."

    George hopes that the FCC might allocate an 8 meter segment for
    radio amateurs, but there may be objections from operators of a
    nationwide network of automated high elevation stations that use
    meteor scatter to report mountain snow pack data.

    See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/8-meter_band for some surprising
    history of amateur radio on 8 meters.

    Space Weather Woman Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW reports:

    https://youtu.be/8wy9TmC9LqY

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for July 14 through 20, 2022 were 133, 141, 153,
    166, 125, 114, and 129, with a mean of 137.3. 10.7 cm flux was 169,
    171.4, 176.2, 161.2, 149.4, 144.1, and 132.2, with a mean of 157.6.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 8, 7, 5, 8, 26, and 7, with a
    mean of 9.4. Middle latitude A index was 5, 7, 9, 6, 10, 19, and 7,
    with a mean of 9.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@1:2320/33 to All on Fri Jul 29 18:02:58 2022

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP030
    ARLP030 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP30
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 30 ARLP030
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA July 29, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP030
    ARLP030 Propagation de K7RA

    Although images of the sun this reporting week, July 21 to 27,
    showed plenty of sunspots, only two new spots emerged, one on July
    21, and another on July 25.

    Another new sunspot appeared on July 28, but the sunspot number
    declined to 50 from 52 the day before.

    Average daily sunspot number declined from 137.3 to 91.1, and
    average daily solar flux softened by 50 points to 107.6.

    The headline on spaceweather.com on July 28 said, "Quiet Sun."

    Geomagnetic indicators began this reporting week fairly active, with
    planetary A index at 22, then it quickly quieted down to an average
    of 11.7 for the week, higher than the 9.4 average reported last
    week. Average middle-latitude A index increased from 9 to 10.4.

    A look back a year ago shows this cycle is progressing nicely. In
    ARLP030 in 2021 average daily sunspot number was just 48.9, and
    average daily solar flux only 81.3.

    A year prior the average daily sunspot number in 2020 was just 3.1!
    That is because there were five days with no sunspots, then two days
    with a sunspot number of only 11, which is the minimum non-zero
    sunspot number.

    A sunspot number of 11 does not mean 11 sunspots. It means there
    was just 1 sunspot group (which counts for 10 points) and one
    sunspot in that group, counting for 1, producing a total of 11,
    because of the arcane historical method of counting sunspots.

    Predicted solar flux shows it peaking at 130 on August 11.

    Predicted flux is 92 on July 29 to 31, 90 on August 1, 88 on August
    2 to 4, 92 on August 5, 115 on August 6, 113 on August 7 and 8, then
    120, 125, 130 and 125 on August 9 to 12, 120 on August 13 to 15, 118
    on August 16 and 17, then 114 and 110 on August 18 and 19, 108 on
    August 20 and 21, then 106 and 102 on August 22 and 23, 100 on
    August 24 to 27, 108 on August 28 and 29, 110 on August 30 and 31,
    115 on September 1 and 2, and 113 on September 3 and 4. Solar flux
    peaks again at 130 on September 7.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8 and 12 on July 29 and 30, 8 on July
    31 and August 1, 5 on August 2, 8 on August 3 and 4, 5 on August 5
    to 10, 8 on August 11 and 12, 5 on August 13 to 16, 22 on August 17,
    15 on August 18 and 19, 8 on August 20 and 21, 5 on August 22 to 25,
    10 and 12 on August 26 and 27, 5 on August 28 and 29, 12 and 10 on
    August 30 and 31, and 5 on September 1 to 6.

    USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report, 2200 UTC on 28 Jul 2022

    https://bit.ly/3votD3A

    OK1HH wrote on July 28:

    "Over the last seven days, solar activity has been steadily
    decreasing. From some class C flares to the 'almost no chance of
    flares' announcement today. But we observed some interesting
    anomalies. For example, geomagnetic disturbance on July 21 caused
    two improvements in ionospheric shortwave propagation conditions
    around 1400 and 1930 UTC.

    A CME hit Earth's magnetic field on July 23rd at 0259 UTC. The
    impact triggered a G1-class geomagnetic storm and in the early hours
    of the morning UTC, 6-meter band users were able to establish a
    series of contacts between central Europe and the US East Coast.

    The proton density in the solar wind, which suddenly rose on 27 July
    between 2000 and 2100 UTC, was accompanied by a significant
    improvement in shortwave propagation between Europe and the
    Caribbean, while closed at the same time the path between Europe and
    North America.

    A small coronal hole of positive polarity located just to the north
    of the solar equator that crossed the central meridian on July 26 is
    expected to influence solar wind starting July 29. Geomagnetic
    activity will increase again."

    KD6JUI wrote:

    "I go out in my kayak once per week to operate QRP. Today,
    Thursday, July 28, I set out on Lake Solano (northern CA) not
    expecting much action due to a low solar flux (93.4) and predicted
    MUF of about 14 MHz.

    When I first checked 17m I heard a CW pileup apparently going after
    a Swiss station. I had a couple contacts on 17 and 20m. A couple
    hours later, I moved from the middle of the lake to the shade of a
    tree along the bank (temps were in the high 90s). My loop antenna
    was half surrounded by foliage, which I figured would interfere with
    my signal. Nonetheless, I gave 17m CW a try again, and contacted
    F8IHE almost immediately. All he could copy was my call sign, but
    that was enough for me!

    Always a surprise."

    What are sunspots?

    https://bit.ly/3vk6GhW

    Fun Morse Code app:

    https://morsle.fun/help/

    A fun one-hour twice weekly relaxed CW activity, the Slow Speed
    Test, every Friday and Sunday:

    http://www.k1usn.com/sst.html

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

    Sunspot numbers for July 21 through 27, 2022 were 124, 107, 96, 80,
    100, 78, and 53, with a mean of 91.1. 10.7 cm flux was 121.7,
    114.7, 110.5, 107.1, 102.3, 98.8, and 98, with a mean of 107.6.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 22, 11, 17, 9, 6, 8, and 9, with
    a mean of 11.7. Middle latitude A index was 14, 11, 15, 9, 8, 7,
    and 9, with a mean of 10.4.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@1:2320/33 to All on Sat Aug 6 03:33:26 2022

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP031
    ARLP031 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP31
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 31 ARLP031
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA August 5, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP031
    ARLP031 Propagation de K7RA

    Solar activity continued to decline this week, with average daily
    sunspot number dropping from 91.1 to 36.6 and average solar flux at
    95.7, down from 107.6 the week prior.

    Thursday's sunspot number was above the average for the previous
    seven days at 52. Solar flux on Thursday was above the previous
    seven day average at 108.8. The 2300 UTC flux was 111.3.

    We've not seen lower values since mid-April in bulletin ARLP015 with
    average sunspot number at 34.4, and the end of February in ARLP008
    with average solar flux at 95.4.

    To track solar cycle 25 progress, I like to compare current averages
    against the same numbers from last year. In the 2021 version of
    ARLP031, average daily sunspot numbers were 33.1 (lower by 3.5 from
    this week's report), and average solar flux was 83, down 12.7 from
    the current average.

    The lower activity was quite noticeable over the past week on 10 and
    12 meters, but there must still be some daily sporadic-E, from what
    I've seen on an email list devoted to 10 meter propagation beacons.
    I have one myself, K7RA/B transmitting CW from CN87uq on 28.2833
    MHz.

    The outlook from the USAF space weather group shows a meager
    forecast for solar flux, this one from forecasters Hoseth and
    Strandness on Thursday.

    The latest forecast is a bit more optimistic than the Wednesday
    version, with solar flux at 112 instead of 100 for the next few
    days.

    Predicted solar flux is 112 on August 5 to 7, 110 on August 8 and 9,
    112 on August 10, 114 on August 11 and 12, 98 on August 13 and 14,
    100 on August 15 and 16, 98 on August 17 and 18, then 96, 96 and 98
    on August 19 to 21, 96 again on August 22 and 23, 92 on August 24 to
    28, 90 and 92 on August 29 and 30, 94 on August 31 through September
    1, 96 on September 2 and 3, then 98 on September 4 to 10, and 100 on
    September 11 and 12.

    Predicted planetary A index 5 on August 5, 8 on August 6 and 7, then
    5, 14, 12, 18 and 12 on August 8 to 12, 5 on August 13 to 16, then
    22 on August 17, 15 on August 18 and 19, 8 on August 20 and 21, 5 on
    August 22 to 25, then 10 and 12 on August 26 and 27, 5 on August 28
    and 29, then 12 and 10 on August 30 and 31, 5 on September 1 to 6, 8
    on September 7 to 8, and 5 on September 9 to 12.

    OK1HH wrote:

    "Throughout the period, solar activity was low, the Earth's magnetic
    field quiet to unsettled. Shortwave propagation conditions were
    average to slightly below average.

    An interesting phenomenon for observers may have been a giant solar
    prominence - a loop of plasma on the sun's eastern limb.

    But even more interesting was the report of a farside sunspot. So
    big it is changing the way the sun vibrates. Helioseismic maps
    reveal its acoustic echo not far behind the sun's southeastern limb!
    The sunspot will turn to face Earth a few days from now."

    Space Weather Woman Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW put out a new forecast
    on July 29.

    https://youtu.be/F3T4VI1VSPc

    Recently Dr. Skov sent this out (I edited) to her Patreon
    subscribers:

    "This week the Sun is a mixed bag of active regions, coronal holes
    and solar eye candy. Although we aren't expecting any strong
    storming at Earth, we do have a big-flare player in view and are
    expecting some fast solar wind over the next few days (and then
    again sporadically next week). This might give aurora photographers
    at high latitudes a brief show, but it likely wont be much, if any
    better than the weak shows we got this past week.

    Solar flux is finally back into the triple digits, which means
    decent radio propagation again on Earth's day side and along with
    the reasonably low risk for radio blackouts, amateur radio operators
    as well as GPS users should enjoy better than average signal
    reception (and transmission)."

    I like to watch this link to see what might be coming over the next
    few days on our Sun:

    https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/

    On Thursday night over on the left I am seeing lots of white
    splotches, perhaps indicating areas of magnetic complexity and maybe
    sunspots arriving soon. The horizon is at -90 degrees.

    Although the STEREO mission has survived way past the initial design
    life, one of the probes has been gone for a few years, leaving us a
    very limited view of the sun.

    I would love to see a replacement probe, which I have heard might
    cost twenty-million dollars. Or perhaps a brand new advanced
    design? Perhaps one of our domestic billionaires fascinated by
    space flight could make this happen.

    Newsweek has solar news:

    https://bit.ly/3oZmYcB

    Large sunspot emerging:

    https://bit.ly/3oXVMuQ

    Ginormous:

    https://bit.ly/3QpmU1A

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

    Sunspot numbers for July 28 through August 3, 2022 were 50, 40, 27,
    39, 32, 31, and 37, with a mean of 36.6. 10.7 cm flux was 93, 90.8,
    94.3, 95.4, 97.8, 98.8, and 99.9, with a mean of 95.7. Estimated
    planetary A indices were 7, 4, 7, 11, 8, 9, and 8, with a mean of
    7.7. Middle latitude A index was 9, 6, 8, 12, 8, 10, and 7, with a
    mean of 8.6.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@1:2320/33 to All on Sat Aug 13 10:34:20 2022

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP032
    ARLP032 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP32
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 32 ARLP032
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA August 12, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP032
    ARLP032 Propagation de K7RA

    Solar activity did a rebound this week, back to more active levels.

    Average daily sunspot number increased from 36.6 to 65.4.

    Average daily 10.7 cm solar flux rose from 95.7 to 111.9.

    Solar wind caused geomagnetic numbers to rise, with average
    planetary A index going from 7.7 to 14.4, and middle latitude
    numbers from 8.6 to 12.1.

    An improved outlook shows solar flux over the next month peaking at
    116 on September 2 to 4. The forecast from USAF/NOAA on Thursday
    evening was improved from Wednesday.

    A look at ARLP032 from 2021 gives a perspective on solar cycle
    progress. A year ago, average sunspot number was 6 and average
    solar flux was just 74.8. Quite a difference from 65.4 and 111.9
    during the past week.

    Predicted flux values are 115 on August 12 to 14, 110 on August 15
    to 18, 108 on August 19, 104 on August 20 and 21, then 98, 100, 102,
    100, 102, and 100 on August 22 to 27, then 102 on August 28 to 30,
    then 108 and 114 on August 31 and September 1, 116 on September 2 to
    4, 112 on September 5 to 7. 110 on September 8 and 9, then 108 on
    September 10 to 12, 106 on September 13, then 104 on September 14 to
    16, 102 on September 17 and 98 on September 18.

    Predicted planetary A index is 12 on August 12, 5 on August 13 to 16
    then 10, 12 and 15 on August 17 to 19, 8 on August 20 and 21, 5 on
    August 22 to 26, 12 on August 27, 8 on August 28 to 30, 5 on August
    31 through September 2, then 14, 18, 14, 10 and 8 on September 3 to
    7, and 5 on September 8 to 12, then 22 on September 13, 15 on
    September 14 and 15, 8 on September 16, and 5 on September 17 to 22.

    OK1HH commented:

    "A geomagnetic disturbance rarely comes completely unexpectedly.
    And even more so in a situation where its source cannot be located
    (or selected from several locations). Moreover, lasting five days.
    All this happened between August 7th and 11th.

    At higher latitudes, the 'STEVE' phenomenon was sighted on August 7
    (Strong Thermal Emission Velocity Enhancement). STEVE is a recent
    discovery. It looks like an aurora, but it's not.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/STEVE

    It all started with a positive phase of disturbance in the
    ionosphere, when shortwave propagation improved. The development
    continued with a deterioration of propagation in the negative phase
    on August 8, followed by generally below average conditions in the
    following days. With a strong influence of sporadic layer E, whose
    activity usually increases as the Perseids meteor shower approaches
    maximum (expected on 12 and 13 August). They are also called the
    'Tears of St. Lawrence'.

    Starting August 12 onward, we expect a longer mostly quiet period."

    NASA expects increasing activity:

    https://bit.ly/3QjOLk5

    Always appreciate The Sun Now page from the Solar Dynamics
    Observatory:

    https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/

    Yet another cycle prediction method:

    https://bit.ly/3SKm29J

    Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW has a 200 minute part 2 of a course on ground
    effects:

    https://youtu.be/cOom5LQ_LBY

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

    Sunspot numbers for August 4 through 10, 2022 were 52, 69, 69, 87,
    63, 58, and 60, with a mean of 65.4. 10.7 cm flux was 108.8, 112.2,
    116.3, 116.1, 113, 109.4, and 107.6, with a mean of 111.9.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 6, 4, 24, 31, 19, and 11, with
    a mean of 14.4. Middle latitude A index was 7, 7, 5, 20, 21, 15,
    and 10, with a mean of 12.1.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@1:2320/33 to All on Fri Aug 19 20:55:28 2022

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP033
    ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP33
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 33 ARLP033
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA August 19, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP033
    ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA

    At 2334 UTC on August 17, the Australian Space Weather Forecast
    Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning.

    "Periods of G1 conditions expected during 19 and 20 Aug due to the
    combination of coronal hole high speed wind stream and several
    coronal mass ejections observed in the last few days. There is a
    chance of isolated periods of G2 over 19 and 20 Aug."

    Local TV newscasts here in Seattle noted the possibility of aurora
    Thursday night, although observers would need to travel to dark
    areas away from the city for any chance of successful viewing. They recommended using a tripod mounted camera pointed north with a long
    exposure time. This is good advice, as often the dramatic aurora
    photos are done this way, and viewing with the naked eye you see a
    much less dramatic image.

    Last week we noted increasing solar activity, and it continued.
    Average daily sunspot numbers increased from 36.6 to 65.4 last week,
    to 95.6 in the current reporting period, August 11 to 17. Average
    daily solar flux went from 95.7 to 111.9 last week, and 123.7 this
    week.

    But solar flux values have pulled back in recent days, with a peak
    of 134.3 at 1700 UTC on August 15, followed by the standard 2000 UTC
    local noon readings of 128.5, 122.7, and 116.5 on August 16 to 18.

    Predicted solar flux is 125 and 120 August 19 and 20, 115 on August
    21 to 23, then 110 on August 24 and 25, then 100, 94, 96 and 98 on
    August 26 to 29, then 100, 108 and 114 on August 30 through
    September 1, then 116 on September 2 and 3, 112 on September 4, 108
    on September 5 and 6, then 115, 120, 124 and 126 on September 7 to
    10, 124 on September 11 and 12, then 122, 118, 112, 108 and 102 on
    September 13 to 17, then 100 on September 18 and 19, and 94 on
    September 20 to 23, then climbing to 116 at the end of the month.

    Predicted planetary A index is 30, 25 and 8 on August 19 to 21, 5 on
    August 22 to 26, 12 on August 27, 8 on August 28 to 30, 5 on August
    31 through September 2, then 24, 28, 18 and 10 on September 3 to 6,
    and 14, 8, 10 and 8 on September 7 to 10, then 5, 5, 20 and 15 on
    September 11 to 14, then 12, 12 and 8 on September 15 to 17, and 5
    on September 18 to 22, then 12 on September 23, and 8 on September
    24 to 26.

    OK1HH writes:

    "A week ago (since August 12) solar activity started to increase
    very slowly. Since August 13, the eruptive activity in the active
    sunspot AR3079 in the southwest of the solar disk has increased. On
    August 14 it was already possible to predict massive geomagnetic
    disturbances for August 17 and 18 based on the observed CMEs. The
    solar wind speed slowly decreased until August 16. In the meantime,
    eruptive activity increased in AR3078, where moderate strength
    eruptions were observed daily since 15 August.

    The sunspot group AR3078 developed a delta-class magnetic field,
    continued to grow, and continued to produce medium-sized flares that
    caused minor shortwave radio blackouts. The strongest eruption to
    date, an M5 category burst on August 16 at 0758 UTC caused a
    shortwave radio blackout over the Indian Ocean.

    A series of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) added their effect to a
    possible 'cannibal CME event' (if a second CME could overtake and
    engulf the first, creating a mishmash of the two). The forecast for
    a massive geomagnetic disturbance has been extended to August 17 to
    19.

    Active sunspot AR3078 is producing strong solar flares of class M
    for the third consecutive day. The most recent, an M2 explosion on
    17 August (1345 UT), hurled a plume of cool dark plasma into space.
    But like the other CMEs produced by AR3078 this week, this one will
    pass through the southern edge of Earth's impact zone. So the
    disturbance won't be as widespread as if the CME had hit Earth
    directly.

    The increased activity on 15 to 17 August caused improved shortwave
    propagation conditions and a noticeable increase in MUF. The best
    day was August 17. A significant deterioration and decrease in MUF
    occurred on 18 August. In the following days, the solar flare
    activity and the intensity of geomagnetic disturbances start to
    decrease. A calming trend can be expected after about 22 August."

    Tamitha Skov says "Don't worry, this is not a Carrington Event", in
    an 84 minute video titled "Incoming Solar Storm Crush":

    https://youtu.be/TCypTeodMYo

    Even Newsweek is reporting it:

    https://bit.ly/3K0S5hw

    https://bit.ly/3PzcTOg

    And of course, British tabloids:

    https://bit.ly/3wb0zgc

    And NOAA:

    https://bit.ly/3A537Ob

    Violent solar activity:

    https://bit.ly/3K3uQDw

    Strong storm:

    https://bit.ly/3c998kT

    Aurora in Montana:

    https://bit.ly/3QCbzeK

    Radiation storm!

    https://bit.ly/3AwWuFR

    John Kludt, K7SYS asked, "I recently moved from the Atlanta,
    Georgia, area to Sandpoint, Idaho.

    My question is that in geomagnetic forecasts they make a distinction
    between 'mid-latitudes' and 'high-latitudes.' Where do
    'mid-latitudes' stop and 'high-latitudes' begin?

    The other mystery to me is looking at my logbook since moving here
    two years ago, it would seem I was working more Dx at solar cycle
    minimum than I am now. The station is the same for the entire
    period and all of the numbers I track on my antennas are stable.

    One of the conclusions I have come to, maybe incorrectly, is 'The
    good news is the sun is more active and the bad news is the sun is
    more active.' As with so many things, there is no free lunch."

    My response: I don't know of any standards specifying what defines
    high latitude or low latitude, except for North America, Atlanta at
    33.8 degrees north would be low latitude, Sandpoint at 48.3 degrees
    would be moderately high for North America, and Fairbanks, Alaska at
    64.8 degrees would be high.

    I remember years ago K7VV was living in Alaska and reported to me
    that during a particularly long period of high geomagnetic activity,
    there just was no HF propagation, due to the concentration of the
    disturbance closer to the poles.

    You might notice better propagation from Atlanta. I've noticed
    using PSKreporter.info on 10 meters FT8, looking at the "country of
    callsign" setting, often it shows lots of propagation from the SE
    states and nothing here in the northwest. Don't know why that is,
    but gradually the propagation will drift out this way. So Atlanta
    being 3 hours earlier will show 10 meter propagation before we get
    it here. It seems to me that often HF propagation from southern
    states is better than it is here for us in the Pacific Northwest,
    what Jack Bock, K7ZR (SK) referred to as the "sufferin' sevens".

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for August 11 through 17, 2022 were 58, 97, 116,
    104, 92, 119, and 83, with a mean of 95.6. 10.7 cm flux was 114.8,
    119.5, 124.2, 125.5, 130.6, 128.5, and 122.7, with a mean of 123.7.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 16, 7, 10, 7, 6, 5, and 31, with
    a mean of 11.7. Middle latitude A index was 12, 6, 10, 9, 6, 5, and
    22, with a mean of 10.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@1:2320/33 to All on Fri Aug 26 12:12:51 2022

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP034
    ARLP034 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP34
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 34 ARLP034
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA August 26, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP034
    ARLP034 Propagation de K7RA

    On August 18 a new sunspot group emerged, another on August 21, then
    two more on August 23, and three more on August 25, when the sunspot
    number jumped to 94 from 46 the previous day. Total sunspot area
    more than doubled from Wednesday to Thursday.

    Solar activity overall was down slightly for the reporting week,
    August 18-24, with average daily sunspot number declining from 60.8
    during the previous seven days to 58.7, and average solar flux from
    123.7 to 104.5.

    Planetary A index changed from an average of 11.7 to 12.6, and
    middle latitude A index measured at a single magnetometer in
    Virginia was 11, after an average of 10 last week.

    As an indicator of rising solar activity, a year ago this bulletin
    reported average daily sunspot number at 17.7, 41 points below this
    week's report.

    The Thursday night forecast from the 557th weather wing at Offut Air
    Force Base shows a probable peak of solar flux for the near term at
    130 on September 11 and again on October 8.

    Predicted solar flux is 120 on August 26-27 (up from 105 in the
    previous day's forecast), 115 on August 28, 110 on August 29-31, 115
    on September 1-2, 116 on September 3-4, 112 on September 5, 108 on
    September 6-7, then 115, 120, 124 and 130 on September 8-11, then
    128, 120, 118, 105 and 102 on September 12-16, 98 on September
    17-18, 96 on September 19-21, 94 on September 22-24, then 92, 98 and
    100 on September 25-27, then 108, 114, 116 and 116 on September 28
    through October 1.

    Predicted planetary A index has some surprises in store, at 5 on
    August 26, 8 on August 27-28, 10 on August 29, 5 on August 30-31, 8
    September 1-2, then jumping way up to 30, 38 and 20 on September
    3-5, then 15, 18, 10, 12 and 8 on September 6-10, 5 on September
    11-12, then 12, 15 and 10 on September 13-15, 8 on September 16-17,
    then 25, 15 and 8 on September 18-20, 5 on September 21-22, 12 on
    September 23, then 8 on September 24-26, 5 on September 27-29, then
    back up to 30, 38, 20, 15 and 18 on September 30 through October 4,
    an apparent echo of the prediction for September 3-7.

    The above predictions were from USAF forecasters Easterlin and
    Sadovsky.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

    "As in the previous solar rotation, the Sun's activity continued to
    decline. Geomagnetic activity, however, has increased. More
    pronounced eruptive activity was mainly in the southwest quadrant of
    the solar disk.

    "The active sunspot, AR3078, produced several M-class solar flares
    and more than a dozen C-class flares. Most of the eruptions hurled
    particles into space. The first CME hit Earth's magnetic field on
    August 20. The next active sunspot group, AR3085, behaved similarly
    after reaching the same active heliographic longitude as the
    previous sunspot, AR3078.

    "Sunspot AR3085 grew more than ten times larger and turned into a
    double sunspot group with cores almost as wide as the Earth.
    Finally, a new sunspot, AR3088, appeared, again in the southern
    hemisphere of the Sun.

    "Attention is now drawn to a large coronal hole in the southeastern
    solar disk that could affect the solar wind after it appears near
    the central meridian.

    "With the current type of development, predictions of further events
    are more difficult than usual. Either way, we now expect a
    quasi-periodic increase in solar activity."

    Here is a news article about a large sunspot:

    https://bit.ly/3KhmOHj

    British tabloid sunspot news:

    https://bit.ly/3CvCdSz

    Here is an article about a planet-sized sunspot:

    https://bit.ly/3PL6IXy

    A Nature World News story about a big sunspot:

    https://bit.ly/3csY16x

    A report about eleven discoveries and the coming solar max, from
    American Geophysical Union:

    https://bit.ly/3R95HcW

    From Space.com, the threat of unexpected flares:

    https://bit.ly/3AL32AS

    Here is a paper on solar rotations:

    https://bit.ly/3e0p5ux

    I did not include an article titled "Destructive solar storms are
    possible as Sun approaches height of its terrifying solar cycle."
    The article claimed that Solar Cycle 25 peak will be a year from
    now, rather than the consensus prediction of 2025.

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for August 18 through 24, 2022 were 83, 74, 56, 56,
    44, 52, and 46, with a mean of 58.7. 10.7 cm flux was 116.5, 105.4,
    101.5, 97, 102.6, 100.9, and 107.8, with a mean of 104.5. Estimated
    planetary A indices were 26, 20, 14, 14, 7, 4, and 3, with a mean of
    12.6. Middle latitude A index was 19, 15, 16, 13, 7, 3, and 4, with
    a mean of 11.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@1:2320/33 to All on Fri Sep 2 14:25:46 2022

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP035
    ARLP035 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP35
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 35 ARLP035
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA September 2, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP035
    ARLP035 Propagation de K7RA

    The past week saw many interesting events. The DRAO observatory at
    Penticton, British Columbia (the source of 10.7 cm solar flux
    measurements) was overwhelmed by solar flares, and at 2000 UTC on
    August 28 reported a solar flux value of 251.9, and the next day at
    1700 UTC, a value of 357.1.

    The 2000 UTC local noon numbers are the official solar flux number
    for each day, so for the August 28 value I chose to report the 2300
    UTC number of 133.5 instead.

    I checked with astronomer Andrew Gray at Penticton, and he reported,
    "The high values are indeed because of solar activity, both
    yesterday and today flares occurred right during our flux
    measurements."

    Solar activity increased this reporting week (August 25-31) with
    average daily sunspot numbers rising from 58.7 to 74.9 and solar
    flux from 104.5 to 123.8.

    Without that correction for August 28, average daily solar flux
    would have been 140.8 instead of 123.8.

    I have seen these errors in the past, but they are rare. When they
    occur, there is only 1/3 chance they will happen during the daily
    2000 UTC reading, which sends them into the official daily solar
    flux data.

    Note that NOAA did not correct the high false value:

    https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/daily-solar-indices.txt

    Average daily A index was a little lower, the planetary values
    shifting from 12.6 to 10.1 and middle latitude from 11 to 9.4.

    Three new sunspot groups appeared on August 25 at the beginning of
    the reporting week, but none until September 1, with two new sunspot
    groups. The daily sunspot number rose from 42 on Wednesday to 67 on
    Thursday.

    Total sunspot area peaked on August 27.

    Predicted solar flux is more optimistic in the Thursday night
    version, as opposed to the Wednesday forecast reported in the ARRL
    Letter.

    Instead of 110 on September 2, the latest forecast is 116, 118 and
    118 on September 2-4, 115 on September 5, 110 on September 6-8, then
    118, 124, 130 and 128 on September 9-12, then 120, 117, 105 and 102
    on September 13-16, then 98 on September 17-18, then 104, 102 and
    108 on September 19-21, 118 on September 22-23, 124 and 125 on
    September 24-25, 120 on September 26-28, 115 on September 29 to
    October 1, then 112 on October 2, 108 on October 3-4, then 115, 120,
    124 and 130 on October 5-8.

    Flux values may briefly dip below 100 in mid-October.

    Predicted planetary A index is 10, 15, 30, 25 and 15 on September
    2-6, 10 on September 7-8, 12 and 8 on September 9-10, 5 on September
    11-12, then 12, 15 and 10 on September 13-15, 8 on September 16-17,
    5 on September 18-23, then 14, 10 and 8 on September 24-26, 5 on
    September 27-29, then 30, 38, 20, 15, 18, 10, 12 and 8 on September
    30 through October 7, and 5 on October 8-9.

    At 0209 UTC on September 2 the Australian Space Weather Forecasting
    Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning: "Disturbed
    conditions caused by a high speed wind stream in a geoeffective
    direction are expected September 3-5."

    Frantislav K. Janda, OK1HH shares his weekly commentary:

    "The recent rise in solar activity, especially during August 27-30,
    was triggered by two sunspot groups, AR3088, which on 29 August fell
    behind the western limb of the solar disk, and AR3089, which on 30
    August passed through the central meridian, so entered the region of
    the so-called present active longitudes.

    "Both sunspot groups are in the southern hemisphere of the Sun,
    while in both were daily registered flares of moderate magnitude.
    CMEs have been registered in four cases. Given the proximity of the
    coronal hole, we would expect a significant increase in geomagnetic
    activity, but only at first approach.

    "However, there was only a slight increase in geomagnetic activity,
    confirming the current solar wind path models. We expect it to
    intensify and then increase in geomagnetic activity since about
    September 4 onwards. A further gradual increase in total solar
    activity can be expected a few days later."

    I (K7RA) noticed some curious 12 meter propagation, testing the band
    using FT8 on https://pskreporter.info/pskmap.html. This way I can
    see instantly where my signal is heard, and get accurate, objective
    signal reports.

    On August 31 at 2038-2116 UTC my calls were heard nowhere in North
    America outside my local area, which were stations 4-54 miles away.
    But all stations hearing me were in a straight line running through
    Mexico and Central America, then down to Brazil.

    XE1GLL, XE1EE, and XE1AQY, down to V31MA, LU6FL and PU3MSR. No 12
    meter resonant antenna, just a 32 foot end-fed indoor wire fed with
    a 4:1 UnUn transformer and automatic antenna tuner.

    Other curious 12 meter behavior was on Saturday, August 27 at 2252
    UTC when the only stations hearing me (FT8 again) were ZL2OK at
    7,120 miles with a strong signal report of +4 dB and WH6FXV at 2,649
    miles.

    Ten minutes later at 2302 UTC JA1QGI was the only station reporting,
    from 4,746 miles away. Four minutes later JN4MIV reported. At 2312
    UTC ZL2OK was back, this time reporting -4 dB, 8 dB lower than the
    earlier report.

    At 2315 UTC I worked JH6RKI and copied several more Japanese
    stations.

    Newsweek Magazine has been reporting interesting solar news
    recently:

    https://bit.ly/3q5XACl

    And Forbes.

    https://bit.ly/3AOWD6G

    Is "The Independent" one of the UK Fleet Street tabloids? Perhaps a
    RSGB member could inform us.

    https://bit.ly/3e5kJlF

    Another wonderful report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, ham radio's
    own Space Weather Woman:

    https://youtu.be/hh_EPRjMmzY

    In the following links, many are presented for your amusement only.
    I do not believe that a huge solar flare will ever engulf the Earth.

    A canyon of fire: https://bit.ly/3RcWSiy

    EarthSky reports (page down): https://bit.ly/3wRStK1

    A report four weeks old, but still relevant: https://bit.ly/3KH0yH4

    Growing sunspot a threat: https://bit.ly/3cEgFZt

    Our angry Sun: https://bit.ly/3cHMiBm

    This one is a bit over the top: https://bit.ly/3TzEnqd

    From a few days ago: https://bit.ly/3CSJFY3

    Radio blackouts: https://bit.ly/3Rwwpwa

    Flares and blackouts: https://bit.ly/3KH2jEa

    More Flares: https://bit.ly/3e5ninN

    Existential threat: https://bit.ly/3Qc3MDE

    Flare facing Earth: https://bit.ly/3q5gzgv

    Sunspot somehow destroys Earth: https://bit.ly/3cHGSGy

    The 61st annual All Asian DX Phone contest is this weekend.
    Information can be found here: https://bit.ly/3ALPkwa

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for August 25 through 31, 2022 were 94, 88, 84, 79,
    87, 50, and 42, with a mean of 74.9. 10.7 cm flux was 117.8, 118.6,
    127.5, 133.5, 130.6, 125.6, and 113.3, with a mean of 123.8.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 5, 14, 7, 14, 13, and 13, with
    a mean of 10.1. Middle latitude A index was 5, 5, 11, 7, 13, 13, and
    12, with a mean of 9.4.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@1:2320/33 to All on Fri Sep 9 20:05:11 2022

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP036
    ARLP036 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP36
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 36 ARLP036
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA September 9, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP036
    ARLP036 Propagation de K7RA

    This week (September 1 to 7) two new sunspot groups emerged on
    September 1, two more on September 2, one more on September 5,
    another on September 6 another on September 7 and one more on
    September 8 when the sunspot number rose to 75, 7 points above the
    average for the previous seven days.

    But average daily sunspot numbers declined from 74.9 to 68, while
    average daily solar flux rose just two points from 123.8 to 125.8.

    On Thursday night the sun is peppered with spots, but none are
    magnetically complex and solar flux seems listless at 126.6, barely
    above the average for the previous seven days.

    Geomagnetic indicators were way up, average daily planetary A index
    rose from 10.1 to 24.6, while middle-latitude numbers increased from
    9.4 to 17.4.

    September 4 was the most active day, when planetary A index was 64.
    On that day the college A index in Fairbanks, Alaska was 91.

    Predicted solar flux is 125 on September 9 to 13, 120 on September
    14, 115 on September 15 and 16, then 125, 126 and 120 on September
    17 to 19, 125 on September 20 and 21, 115 on September 22 to 24, 120
    on September 25 to 28, 118 on September 29 and 30, 115 and 125 on
    October 1 and 2, 120 on October 3 and 4, 122 on October 5, 120 on
    October 6 and 7, 125 on October 8 to 11, 126 on October 12, 125 on
    October 13 and 14, and 126 on October 15.

    Predicted planetary A index is 50 on October 1. Otherwise, 8 on
    September 9 to 11, 5 on September 12, 20 on September 13 and 14, 15
    on September 15, 8 on September 16 and 17, 5 on September 18 to 22,
    then 12 and 10 on September 23 and 24, 14 on September 25 to 27, 8
    on September 28 and 29, then 22, 50, 25, 16, 12 and 10 on September
    30 through October 5, 8 on October 6 to 8, then 5, 12, 15 and 10 on
    October 9 to 12, 8 on October 13 and 14, and 5 on October 15 to 19.

    OK1HH writes:

    "Over the past seven days, a large coronal hole moved from the
    central meridian to the western limb of the solar disk. Its
    position relatively close to sunspot group AR3089 meant a high
    probability of a geomagnetic disturbance in the following days,
    since September 4. Its onset as early as 3 September (class G1) was
    related to the intensification of the solar wind and the opening of
    a rift in the Earth's magnetic field. The solar wind flow from the
    large coronal hole finally hit Earth's magnetic field on September 4
    and triggered a G2 class geomagnetic storm.

    At the same time, two sunspot groups so large that they affected the
    Sun's vibrations developed on the far side of the Sun. These were
    AR3088, which had last left the Sun a week earlier and was the
    source of a large CME heading for Venus on September 5.

    On September 7, AR3092 crossed the central meridian and had a really
    long tail above the surface of the Sun. It was a filament coming
    out of the core of the spot and curling up into the solar
    atmosphere. Inside the filament was a long tube of relatively cool,
    dark plasma.

    Thereafter the Sun was relatively quiet. The solar disk was dotted
    by sunspots, but these have a stable magnetic field, so the chance
    of flares was low.

    Earth's magnetic field was mostly disturbed on the 3rd to the 6th.
    Thereafter was unsettled to active on the remaining days. Shortwave propagation was below average, worst at the end of the disturbance
    on September 6. An increase in f0F2 occurred at the beginning of
    the disturbance on September 4.

    Now a few quiet days followed by another disturbance on 13 and 14
    September is expected."

    I (K7RA) have been seeing more strange 12 meter propagation
    recently. Over and over for several days using FT8 as a propagation
    test tool with pskreporter.info, I would call CQ and see that only
    stations in Florida were receiving my signal. It looks very odd on
    the map. Florida does have a very large ham population, but this
    just seems so peculiar.

    Regarding the recent overloading of the sensors at Penticton, I
    noted I had seen this before, but didn't realize how rare it was. I
    paged back through the DRAO archives, and unless I missed something,
    the last one was in 2015 on June 22 when the 2000 UTC flux reading
    was 246.9. The noon solar flux the following day was only 116.1.

    Tamitha Skov's report is a week old, but too late for last week's
    bulletin: https://youtu.be/zggTNrpa8Pg

    Two massive sunspots: https://bit.ly/3RKKrKI

    Longtime contributor David Moore sent this: https://bit.ly/3qIDfDL

    Big explosion: https://bit.ly/3Ddd2EC

    Our angry sun: https://bit.ly/3B5ZKHg

    So huge: https://bit.ly/3qlHQLT

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

    Sunspot numbers for September 1 through 7, 2022 were 67, 71, 68, 62,
    79, 56, and 73, with a mean of 68. 10.7 cm flux was 116.3, 129.8,
    123.4, 128.3, 130.2, 126.2, and 126.1, with a mean of 125.8.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 8, 25, 64, 32, 20, and 14,
    with a mean of 24.6. Middle latitude A index was 9, 10, 23, 33, 21,
    14, and 12, with a mean of 17.4.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@1:2320/33 to All on Fri Sep 16 11:09:23 2022
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP037
    ARLP037 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP37
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 37 ARLP037
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA September 16, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP037
    ARLP037 Propagation de K7RA

    Solar activity bounced back this reporting week, September 8-14,
    when average daily sunspot numbers jumped from 68 to 92.7, and
    average solar flux from 125.8 to 141.3.

    Fewer CMEs and flares were evident, with average planetary A index
    declining from 24.6 to 10.7, and middle latitude numbers from 17.4
    to 10.6.

    New sunspot groups appeared, one on September 8, three on September
    10, and one more on September 13. Total sunspot area (in millionths
    of a solar disc) on September 12-14 rose from 370 to 870 to 1240,
    the highest value in over a month.

    The sunspot number was highest on September 10 at 122.

    During this week two years ago, there were no sunspots at all, and
    average daily solar flux was only 69.7, over 56 points lower than
    this week, demonstrating the continued progress of Solar Cycle 25.

    The latest (Thursday) forecast from space weather folks at Offut Air
    Force Base shows predicted solar flux peaking at 150 on October 9,
    but with flux over the next few days following this bulletin less
    optimistic than the numbers in the bulletin preview in Thursday's
    ARRL Letter.

    Predicted flux values on September 16-17 are 140 and 135, then 125
    on September 18-19, 120 on September 20-29, 125 on September 30
    through October 6, 130 on October 7-8, then 150, 148, 143 and 140 on
    October 9-12, then 136, 130, 125 and 120 on October 13-16, 125 on
    October 17-18, and 120 on October 19-26.

    Predicted planetary A index shows moderate levels of geomagnetic
    activity until October 1-2. The forecast is 15, 18 and 10 on
    September 16-18, 5 on September 19-23, then 10 on September 24, 14
    on September 25-27, 8 on September 28-29, then 22, 50, 30, 20 and 12
    on September 30 through October 4, then 15, 12, 10, 8 and 5 on
    October 5-9, then 10, 8, 5, 15, 20 and 12 on October 10-15, then 5
    on October 16-19, then 12 and 10 on October 20-21, and 14 on October
    22-24.

    The Autumnal Equinox is only a week away!

    Nice solar video from last month:

    https://bit.ly/3BH9ZDm

    Here is NOAA's latest forecast discussion:

    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

    Comments from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

    "Although the Sun was speckled a week ago, all areas were quiet and
    overall, the Sun's activity was low. After that, activity began to
    grow rapidly in the northern hemisphere.

    "Sunspot group AR3098 grew larger and on September 11, a C6 class
    flare was registered. The old area AR3088, which was active during
    the last rotation of the Sun, returned in the southeast solar limb.

    "Two solar wind shock waves hit our planet on September 14 at 0630
    UTC and 2313 UTC. The second of them significantly expanded the
    speed of the solar wind, started a disturbance of the Earth's
    magnetic field and caused very uneven shortwave propagation
    conditions, especially on routes leading through higher latitudes.
    Auroral distortion of signals were observed when passing through inhomogeneities in the auroral belt.

    "Further similar disturbances can be expected on September 17th, a
    calm after September 18th and a decrease in solar activity is
    expected after September 20th."

    The following is edited from an email from David Greer, N4KZ in
    Frankfort, Kentucky:

    "With the Sun perking up from its long sleep, one of my favorite
    bands, 12 meters, is also coming alive. I've worked FT8 DX on 12
    meters from time to time for months, but things really came alive
    for me from 1236-1356 UTC on September 14 when I worked 22 DX
    stations back-to-back on SSB.

    "I called CQ and was answered by a Dutch station and after that,
    stations just kept calling and calling. I put 22 DX stations in my
    log. Most were from Europe, but I also worked the Middle East and
    Northwest Africa, 18 different DX entities all together.

    "Some signals were quite strong, mostly because they ran high power
    with beam antennas but one station was thrilled to make the trip
    across the pond from Europe because, he said, 'he was running 100
    watts to an indoor dipole in his apartment.'

    "Some commented it was their first ever 12-meter QSO. I hear that
    often from stations everywhere. Some say they didn't think anyone
    ever used 12 meters. Since 2000, I have 12 meter WAS and confirmed
    182 DX entities on 12 alone.

    "I often call CQ on SSB when the band seems dead, only to have a
    rare DX station respond, such as VP8LP in the Falkland Islands.

    "I was on 12-meter SSB the first night hams in the USA were
    authorized to use the band in 1985. That night, the band was wild
    because of a big sporadic-E opening and strong signals were coming
    from all directions across North America. It was a blast!

    "I am fortunate to have a decent station -- 8-element log periodic
    antenna up 50 feet from a hilltop QTH with a kilowatt amp. But many
    signals were so strong on September 14 that I am sure others with
    modest stations could work many DX stations. I had to QRT at 1356
    UTC even though others were still calling. I got back on the band
    later in the day and worked MW0ZZK in Wales. He was 20 over S9.

    "Don't forget about 12 meters. When 10 meters is open, 12 is open
    too. And don't forget about the phone band allocation, which starts
    at 24.930 MHz in the USA. I've heard some out of band because they
    didn't know where the band edge was.

    "A great propagation tool is the MUF web page operated by KC2G at https://prop.kc2g.com/ . I monitor it constantly. It tells me what
    bands to check out and where I should aim my antenna. Plus, it has
    other interesting data in the menu."

    Thanks to Dave for mentioning that great web site. I notice it has a
    section labeled eSSN, which is Effective Sunspot Number, derived
    from 10.7 cm solar flux. More about eSSN from NorthWest Research
    Associates, based here in the Seattle area:

    https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/ssne24.html

    Also, I would like to add that often 12 meters is open when 10
    meters seems dead.

    Here is more crazy solar news:

    https://bit.ly/3QIrXKd

    Here is Newsweek again:

    https://bit.ly/3UhnuAS

    Some solar wind news:

    https://bit.ly/3BLjh1i

    Lucky us! A brand new video, dated today, from Dr. Tamitha Skov,
    WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/OAOmI-3YxUA

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for September 8 through 14, 2022 were 75, 72, 122,
    113, 117, 93, and 57, with a mean of 92.7. 10.7 cm flux was 126.6,
    126.2, 135.9, 151.5, 150.4, 154.1, and 144.3, with a mean of 141.3.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 19, 13, 12, 9, 9, 4, and 9, with
    a mean of 10.7. Middle latitude A index was 17, 14, 10, 9, 9, 5, and
    10, with a mean of 10.6.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@1:2320/33 to All on Fri Sep 23 09:12:59 2022
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP038
    ARLP038 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP38
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 38 ARLP038
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA September 23, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP038
    ARLP038 Propagation de K7RA

    Geomagnetic disturbances were down this week, but so were sunspot
    numbers and solar flux.

    Average daily sunspot numbers declined from 92.7 to 68, and average
    daily solar flux from 141.3 to 134.3.

    On September 22 the sunspot number was 99, well above (by 31 points)
    the average for the previous seven days, a promising indication. We
    hope it may signal a trend.

    But Solar Cycle 25 progresses, a bit better than expected. A year
    ago, average daily sunspot numbers were about ten points lower, at
    58.3, while average solar flux was 87.4, about 47 points lower. Two
    years ago there were no sunspots! We still expect an uptrend lasting
    until Summer 2025.

    Six new sunspot groups appeared this week, the first on September
    15, two more on September 19, another on September 20, and two more
    on September 21.

    Predicted solar flux is 138 on September 23, 130 on September 24-27,
    120 and 125 on September 28-29, 122 on September 30 through October
    7, then 125, 122 and 120 on October 8-10, 118 on October 11-12, 116
    on October 13-15, 138 on October 16, 135 on October 17-18, then 133,
    128, 126, 130 and 125 on October 19-23, 120 on October 24-25, and
    122 on October 26-29.

    Predicted planetary A index is 20 on September 23, 15 on September
    24-25, 8 on September 26-28, then 5, 22, 50, 30 and 20 on September
    29 through October 3, then 12, 15, 12 and 10 on October 4-7, then 8,
    8, 5, and 8 on October 8-11, 5 on October 12-14, then 12, 10, 5, 5,
    20, 18 and 12 on October 15-21, and 8 on October 22-26, then 22, 50,
    30, 20 and 12, a repeat from the previous solar rotation.

    The above predictions were by Dethlesfsen and Ciopasiu at Offut Air
    Force Base.

    Are sunspots really black? A report can be found here:

    https://www.livescience.com/why-are-sunspots-black

    Pleased to report that the 2022 Autumnal Equinox was today, Friday,
    September 23 at 0104 UTC. Both northern and southern hemispheres
    will be bathed in equal amounts of solar radiation, which is good
    for HF propagation.

    Frequent contributor David Moore sent this story about a magnetic
    mystery solved with the aid of the Solar Orbiter:

    https://bit.ly/3DRzhjX

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - September 22, 2022 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    "The setting sunspot region AR3098 still managed to produce an
    impulsive M8-class solar flare on 16 September at 0949 UT. A sudden
    ionospheric disturbance (SWF, or Dellinger effect) affected
    frequencies below 25 MHz for an hour after the flare.

    "On September 17, we expected the high-speed solar wind flow from
    the northern coronal hole to produce a G1-class geomagnetic storm,
    but we registered it a day later. Whereupon the old region AR3088
    appeared on the eastern limb of the solar disk and was given the new
    number AR3102. Although it appeared to be in decay, it grew again.

    "On September 18, we observed five M-class solar flares in the
    setting region of AR3098. However, none of them produced an
    earthward CME.

    "On September 20, another large group of spots appeared over the
    southeastern edge of the Sun, joining the rising and growing AR3105
    - which doubled in size the next day.

    "On September 21, NOAA predicted a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm
    might occur on September 23. A high-speed solar wind stream is
    expected to hit the Earth's magnetic field.

    "On September 22, we could observe the sunspot group complex
    AR3105-3107. The chance of a geoeffective flare should increase in
    the coming days as they enter the Earth's impact zone.

    "Geomagnetic activity was somewhat lower than expected.

    "Shortwave propagation conditions pleasantly surprised us around
    September 17. Therefore, we expected them to improve further as the
    Autumnal Equinox approached. But it didn't happen. They remained at
    average levels, whereby the explanation for why this happened lies
    in the effect of the solar wind on the Earth's ionosphere."

    I (K7RA) had more strange pipeline propagation on 10 meters this
    week, in which my FT8 signal was only reported by https://pskreporter.info/pskmap.html from stations in Florida.

    At 2050 UTC yesterday, AI4FR (2509 miles), N2UJZ (2558 miles),
    KD8HTS (2582 miles), and WC3W (2609 miles) were the only stations
    anywhere receiving my signal. All were less than 100 miles from each
    other. Later PU5CAC (Brazil, 6847 miles) was added to the mix,
    along the same arc as the North America stations.

    I was not using any directional antenna, just a random length
    end-fed indoor wire fed by a 4:1 UnUn and autotuner. Very curious
    results, and it happens often. So, for me, the band was dead, except
    to a very specific location.

    Here is a space weather report from England's Met Office:

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/space-weather

    On September 22, https://spaceweather.com reported three big
    sunspots crossing the solar horizon: AR3105, AR3106 and AR3107.

    Here is always a good reference:

    https://solarmonitor.org/

    NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center:

    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/

    Solar Dynamics Observatory:

    https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/

    The SOHO site:

    https://soho.nascom.nasa.gov/

    Hilarious solar warning out of India, an EOTWAWKI existential
    threat:

    https://bit.ly/3S67DDZ

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for September 15 through 21, 2022 were 71, 64, 76,
    51, 74, 70, and 70, with a mean of 68. 10.7 cm flux was 139.7,
    131.1, 131.5, 136.1, 127.9, 137.2, and 136.9, with a mean of 134.3.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 4, 5, 11, 11, 8, and 5, with a
    mean of 7.1. Middle latitude A index was 8, 5, 5, 9, 7, 6, and 4,
    with a mean of 6.9.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@1:2320/33 to All on Fri Sep 30 09:29:11 2022

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP039
    ARLP039 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP39
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 39 ARLP039
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA September 30, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP039
    ARLP039 Propagation de K7RA

    Sunspot activity rose this reporting week, September 22-28, with
    average daily sunspot numbers increasing from 68 to 105.1. But solar
    flux? Not so much. Average daily solar flux rose from 134.3 to
    138.4.

    So, the sunspot average rose 55% and solar flux only 3%. I usually
    expect the numbers to track more closely.

    New sunspots appeared on September 22 and 23, and one more on
    September 27. On Thursday night (September 29) NOAA reported the
    daily sunspot number at 56, little more than half the average for
    the previous seven days, which is 105.1.

    Tuesday September 27 had lots of geomagnetic activity, with the
    planetary A index at 24 and middle latitude at 33. Spaceweather.com
    blamed an unexpected CME. They also report a huge sunspot beyond the
    Sun's eastern horizon with a helioseismic image at,
    https://bit.ly/3ftpTIN .

    The Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre issued a geomagnetic
    warning at 2146 UTC on September 28:

    "Geomagnetic 27 day recurrence patterns indicate that G1 geomagnetic
    activity is likely during the interval 30-Sep to 02-Oct.

    "INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH
    SPEED WIND STREAM."

    Predicted solar flux from the Thursday night forecast appears much
    more optimistic than the Wednesday numbers, which were in the ARRL
    Letter on Thursday.

    Instead of 135 and 130 for the next few days, they are 148 on
    September 30, 146 on October 1-4, 140 on October 5-7, then 135, 130,
    128 and 132 on October 8-11, then 136 on October 12-13, then 138,
    140, 138 and 135 on October 14-17, then 132, 130, 128 and 125 on
    October 18-21, then 130, 140, 142 and 145 on October 22-25, and 140,
    135, 130, 125, 128 and 130 on October 26-31, then 132 on November
    1-3, and 135, 130 and 128 on November 4-6.

    Planetary A index is predicted at 20, 60 and 40 on September 30
    through October 2, then 20, 18, 16 on October 3-5, 12 on October
    6-7, then 8 on October 8-14, 10 on October 15-16, 8 on October
    17-19, 12 on October 20-21, 8 on October 22-23, 10 on October 24-25,
    8 on October 26-27, then in a recurrent disturbance as sunspots
    rotate into the same position as weeks earlier, 25, 50, 30, 20, 12
    and 10 on October 28 through November 2, and back to 8 on November
    3-10.

    Of course, a planetary A index of 50 or 60 is huge, indicating an
    expected major geomagnetic disturbance.

    From OK1HH:

    "Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - September 29, 2022.

    "Free continuation of predictions of the Earth's magnetic field
    activity, published in the years 1978 - 2021.

    "The following text is very brief as I am traveling around Europe
    without a computer. I will add more next time.

    "An unexpected and unpredicted surprise was the rise of geomagnetic
    activity during the night of September 24-25.

    "Further developments did not take place according to assumptions.
    Which, by the way, is a precursor to the next increase in solar
    activity.

    "Nevertheless, I present a forecast of further disturbances:
    September 30 and especially October 1!

    "http://ok1hh.nagano.cz/ - F.K. Janda, OK1HH"

    Wow, Frantislav manages to submit his report without a computer!
    I've never been to Europe (unfortunately), but I imagine him ducking
    into some sort of Internet kiosk to file his report.

    Here is Dr. Tamitha Skov's, WX6SWW, the Space Weather Woman, report
    from last weekend:

    https://youtu.be/A8flrmnAqQQ

    An article on solar research:

    https://bit.ly/3dPm40p

    Newsweek is at it again:

    https://bit.ly/3CmpW2e

    I continue to see unusual propagation using FT8, such as my signal
    only being received in a narrow band 100-200 miles wide on the East
    Coast of North America.

    You do not need to be an FT8 user to use it to check out the bands.
    Just go to the pskreporter map page at
    https://pskreporter.info/pskmap.html and select the band you are
    interested in (they even have 11 meters!).

    Next, select the default "Signals" and "Sent/Received by" and change
    "the callsign" to "grid square," entering your own four-character
    grid (or one near you with a larger ham population) and in the
    "Using" field select FT8.

    Hit "Go!" and you will see where stations in your area are being
    received, including signal levels.

    You can enter your own call instead of the grid, and select "Country
    of Callsign," and you will see activity all over your nation. I find
    it interesting early in the day to use this on 10 meters, and what I
    usually see is activity all over the East Coast, and especially in
    the southeast U.S. but not here on the west coast.

    But I know that the 10 meter openings will advance across the
    country with the movement of Earth relative to our Sun.

    Explore the "Display options" link just to the right of the time
    listed in the "over the last" field, and you can customize this
    tool. I like to select "Show time text in black always," "Show
    connecting lines always," and "Show SNR."

    The "Show logbook" link is very useful, once you have done a search.
    Often, I will use this, searching for the callsign of an FT8 station
    who has mysteriously disappeared after connecting to me. I can sort
    the entries by Time to find out if anyone has received that station
    since I last saw that station's signal.

    The default "over the last" setting is 15 minutes, but when
    searching for a callsign you can vary the time over the past 24
    hours.

    Have fun!

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for September 22 through 28, 2022 were 99, 111, 128,
    96, 120, 110, and 72, with a mean of 105.1. 10.7 cm flux was 136.7,
    146.3, 146.5, 134.7, 135.1, 134.5, and 134.8, with a mean of 138.4.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 12, 13, 7, 6, 24, and 5, with
    a mean of 10.4. Middle latitude A index was 5, 12, 10, 5, 5, 33, and
    3, with a mean of 10.4.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@1:2320/33 to All on Fri Oct 7 20:16:40 2022

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP040
    ARLP040 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP40
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 40 ARLP040
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA October 7, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP040
    ARLP040 Propagation de K7RA

    Sunspot numbers and solar flux increased this week (September 29
    through October 5), as expected with the solar cycle progressing
    toward a probable peak in summer 2025.

    Average daily sunspot number increased from 105.1 to 111.4, and
    average daily 10.7 cm solar flux from 138.4 to 149.2.

    Compare this to a year ago, when average daily sunspot number was
    just 59.4 and solar flux was 89.8.

    This last week there were two new sunspot groups on September 30,
    one more on October 1, three on October 3, and one more on Thursday,
    October 6.

    I have been noticing improved 10 meter propagation with openings
    lasting all day, now that the autumnal equinox passed two weeks ago
    and with higher sunspot numbers.

    Predicted solar flux is 156 on October 7, 154 on October 8 and 9,
    then 152 and 150 on October 10 and 11, 148 on October 12 to 14, 130
    on October 15, 135 on October 16 and 17, 140 on October 18, 145 on
    October 19 to 21, 150 on October 22 and 23, then 145, 140 and 135 on
    October 24 to 26, 145 on October 27 and 28, 150 on October 29, 155
    on October 30 and 31, 145 on November 1, 135 on November 2 to 4, 130
    on November 5 and 6, 135 on November 7, 140 on November 8 and 9, 130
    on November 10 and 11 and 135 on November 12 and 13.

    Predicted planetary A index is 14, 10, 12 and 8 on October 7 to 10,
    5 on October 11 to 13, 8 on October 14, 10 on October 15 and 16,
    then 8 on October 17 to 19, 12 on October 20 and 21, 8 on October 22
    to 29, then 20, 12 and 10 on October 30 through November 1, then 8
    on November 2 to 10 and 10 on November 11 and 12.

    On October 2, Spaceweather.com announced "A Big Dangerous Sunspot",
    AR3112, one of the biggest in years had just rotated over the sun's
    eastern horizon. They predict this could produce two weeks of high
    solar activity.

    F. K. Janda, OK1HH reports, "A week ago it seemed that following
    conditions would be calmer. This assumption was shattered after
    AR3112 sunspot group, with its complex magnetic structure, began to
    appear on the northeastern edge of the solar disk.

    Prior to that, we expected the earth to be hit by a fast solar wind
    from a CME that left the sun on September 28, but only a slight
    increase in geomagnetic activity followed on September 28 and
    October 2.

    However, we did get an X1 flare on October 2 at 2025 UTC, which
    ironically did not originate from the large dangerous AR3112 group,
    but from the smaller and apparently less threatening AR3110 active
    region. It amplified the SWF (shortwave fade out) in the Pacific
    and parts of North America. Apparently, it blasted a CME into
    space.

    This development was followed by the introduction of AR3112 with
    over a dozen dark nuclei scattered over 130,000 km of the solar
    disk.

    It remained the case that most of the incoming CMEs were hurled into
    space by the AR3110 group of spots, in which we observed a series of
    strong flares (M5.9, M8.7, X1) over the weekend.

    As a result, several CMEs headed towards Earth.

    However, the geomagnetic field was only steady to active in the
    following days.

    Not only does the chance for energetic flares in the AR3112 region
    persist, but on October 4, a 200,000 km long magnetic filament
    erupted in the southern hemisphere of the Sun. The plasma clouds
    are not heading directly towards Earth, but some could hit on 8
    October."

    Big filament.

    https://bit.ly/3fOl4KC

    https://bit.ly/3ejTEeZ

    The latest from WX6SWW, Space Weather Woman Dr. Tamitha Skov.

    https://youtu.be/MFOsaEV4CME

    https://youtu.be/ZVSO0grZ5ek

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for September 29 through October 5, 2022 were 56,
    74, 100, 102, 144, 153, and 151, with a mean of 111.4. 10.7 cm flux
    was 137.2, 137.1, 147.9, 153.9, 155.1, 152.4, and 161, with a mean
    of 149.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 13, 3, 12, 24, 16,
    and 14, with a mean of 12.7. Middle latitude A index was 7, 12, 2,
    9, 16, 13, and 11, with a mean of 10.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@1:2320/33 to All on Fri Oct 14 13:07:22 2022

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP041
    ARLP041 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP41
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 41 ARLP041
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA October 14, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP041
    ARLP041 Propagation de K7RA

    Average daily sunspot numbers and solar flux increased this week,
    with sunspot numbers going from 111.4 to 114.9, and flux values from
    149.2 to 155.3.

    A feel-good exercise is to compare these numbers with a year ago,
    when the sunspot reading in 2021 Propagation Forecast Bulletin
    ARLP041 was only 30.7 and flux was 86.9. Solar Cycle 25 progression
    is better than predicted.

    October 9 saw a planetary A index reading of 25. On that day
    Spaceweather.com warned that sunspot AR3112 had a delta-class
    magnetic field with energy for strong solar flares.

    The next day they posted movies of two flares, seen here, https://bit.ly/3T82fQS and here, https://bit.ly/3evItjp .

    Predicted solar flux from USAF and NOAA shows values peaking during
    the first week in November at 160.

    The forecast shows flux values of 130, 120, 115 and 117 on October
    14-17, 120 on October 18-20, 130 and 138 on October 21-22, 140 on
    October 23-25, then 145, 145 and 150 on October 26-28, then 155, 155
    and 152 on October 29-31, 160 on November 1-8, then 150, 140 and 135
    on November 9-11, 130 on November 12-13, 135 on November 14, 138 on
    November 15-17, and 140 on November 18-21.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on October 14, 8 on October 15-16,
    5 on October 17-19, 12 on October 20-21, 5 on October 22-26, then
    12, 15, 12 and 20 on October 27-30, 15 on October 31 through
    November 1, then 18, 15 and 12 on November 2-4, 20 on November 5-6,
    then 8 and 12 on November 7-8, then 5, 5, 12 and 10 on November
    9-12, then 5 on November 13-15, 12 on November 16-17, and 5 on
    November 18-22.

    With increased solar activity and the progression into the Fall
    season, I am seeing improved conditions on 10 meters, including more
    beacon reports for my K7RA/B CW beacon on 28.2833 MHz.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

    "A greater number of active regions on the Sun, and therefore higher
    total solar activity may be interesting for observers who are on the
    lookout for remarkable phenomena. Moreover, it will certainly please
    those radio amateurs who like to communicate on the shortest
    shortwave bands, but that's where the easy part of the prediction
    ends.

    "Along with more flares, we also saw more CMEs. More accurately: too
    many CMEs to make a forecast. The Sun was throwing several plasma
    clouds into space nearly every day. Many of the CMEs were weak, some overlapping and heading in different directions. The disturbances
    could occur at any time. Their irregular occurrence was observed
    between October 3 and 10. Only after that did the Earth's
    magnetosphere calm down.

    "The CME of 4 October apparently did not hit the Earth. It was not
    until the eruption in AR3112 on October 7 that it did. Therefore, we
    observed a G1-class geomagnetic storm on October 9. In addition, we
    observed eruptive activity that may have affected the Earth from the
    smaller AR3116.

    "All of this took place in the northwest quadrant of the solar disk,
    and as the active regions approached the western limb of the solar
    disk, the overall activity slowly decreased.

    "Some CMEs took us by surprise and caused unexpected disturbances,
    while other CMEs that should have hit Earth did not. We were pleased
    to note a quiet development since October 11 with solar activity
    still sufficiently high, contributed to improved shortwave
    propagation.

    "We now expect a gradual decrease in solar activity, but this will
    be replaced by an increase later in October."

    John, W2QL wrote:

    "I decoded HC2FG on 6m FT8, 50.315.143 on 8 October 2022 at 1526
    UTC, -18 dB.

    "My equipment was a MFJ 6m Moxon in 3rd floor bedroom, SDRPlay
    RSPDuo, QTH Fairfax, VA, FM18iu."

    Jon Jones, N0JK wrote:

    "Some odd F2 conditions October 8. First, 6 meters was open from the
    southeast U.S. to Ecuador in the morning around 1500 UTC. I was on
    6M portable with a 5 el Yagi, but nil in Kansas. To me it appeared
    to be F2.

    "10 meters was wide open to Europe. 9H1TT was 59+++ on SSB, as were
    3 stations in Lebanon on 28.647 MHz. No luck with the OD5 stations,
    but I worked EA7GAK, 9H1TT on SSB, and HA7TM on FT8 with 50 watts
    and a whip antenna 'fixed mobile' from my portable site in northeast
    Kansas.

    "Solar Cycle 25 appears to be ramping up!

    "Also worked IS0/OM2TW on SSB with 50 watts and vertical whip on
    car."

    Another of the many articles about the scary Carrington Event,
    although this is the first time I have seen the claim that the flare
    was so powerful, that telegraph messages could be sent through the
    aurora! 1859 was long before the invention of radio, and longer
    still before radio waves were observed propagating through the
    aurora:

    https://bit.ly/3CQEveO

    Does anyone know how to get rid of that annoying video pop-up? I
    cannot kill it.

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for October 6 through 12, 2022 were 139, 146, 137,
    114, 134, 72, and 62, with a mean of 114.9. 10.7 cm flux was 155.7,
    159.7, 157.2, 160.5, 163.2, 150.3, and 140.6, with a mean of 155.3.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 18, 15, 12, 25, 10, 7, and 6,
    with a mean of 13.3. Middle latitude A index was 14, 12, 10, 18, 8,
    7, and 4, with a mean of 10.4.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@1:2320/33 to All on Sat Oct 22 11:26:34 2022

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP042
    ARLP042 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP42
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 42 ARLP042
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA October 21, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP042
    ARLP042 Propagation de K7RA

    Sunspot activity took quite a plunge over this reporting week
    (October 13-19). Average daily sunspot numbers declined from 114.9
    to 57.3, while equivalent solar flux values went from 155.3 to
    119.6.

    Geomagnetic indicators were slightly lower, with average planetary A
    index going from 13.3 to 10.6, and middle latitude A index from 10.4
    to 8.1.

    A new sunspot group emerged on October 13, two more on October 15,
    another on October 16, one more on October 17, another on October 19
    and one more on October 20.

    I should note that the middle latitude A index for October 18-19 are
    my own estimates. The Fredericksburg, Virginia magnetometer was
    offline for a 24 hour period spanning both days.

    The Wednesday forecast of solar flux shows a peak at 160 during the
    first week in November.

    Predicted daily flux values are 115 on October 21-22, 120 on October
    23-27, 130 on October 28, 155 on October 29-30, 152 on October 31,
    160 on November 1-8, then 150, 140 and 135 on November 9-11, 130 on
    November 12-13, 135 on November 14, 138 on November 15-17, and 140
    on November 18-21, 145 on November 22-23, 150 on November 24, 155 on
    November 25-26, then 160 from the end of November through the first
    week in December.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on October 21-23, 12 on October 24,
    15 on October 25-26, then 12, 15, 12 and 20 on October 27-30, 15 on
    October 31 through November 1, then 18, 15, 12, 20, and 8 on
    November 2-6, 5 on November 7-9, 18 on November 10-11, then 15 and 8
    on November 12-13, 5 on November 14-15, 12 on November 16-17, 8 on
    November 18, and 5 on November 19-21, then 15, 12, 15, 12 and 20 on
    November 22-26, 15 on November 27-28, and 18 on November 29.

    Despite lower solar activity, worldwide 10 meter propagation seems
    strong this week, probably boosted by seasonal variations as we head
    deeper into the Fall season.

    Jon Jones, N0JK (EM28, Kansas) reports from last week:

    "A strong several hour F2 opening took place on 6 Meters October 14,
    2022. Stations in northern South America and the Caribbean were
    strong to the southeast states, Midwest, and eastern Seaboard.

    "From eastern Kansas, I logged HC2DR and PJ4MM on 6 Meters via FT8
    around 1950 UTC. I was running about 50 watts and a quarter wave
    whip on my car 'fixed mobile.'"

    "Signals were strong.

    "The Solar Flux was 141, K index 4."

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

    "Solar activity gradually decreased as active regions fell behind
    the northwestern limb of the solar disk.

    "Earth's magnetic field was active to disturbed around October 15,
    when our planet was moving in a rapid stream of solar wind. A minor
    G1-class geomagnetic storm was registered on October 15.

    "In the following days, solar activity remained low, and the simple
    sunspot configuration indicated a low probability of flares.

    "It is only in a few days, after the coronal hole in the southeast
    of the solar disk crosses the central meridian, that the solar wind
    speed and the probability of geomagnetic disturbances will increase
    again.

    "We can expect a more pronounced increase in solar activity and more
    frequent opening of the shortest shortwave bands again, especially
    from the last days of October onward."

    The latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/4hmsd_FMWH4

    Angel Santana, WP3GW on October 17 wrote:

    "For a month now I've heard (and seen) much activity on 10 meters
    more than on any other band on weekends with countries that I've not
    heard for a while. On past weeks, have worked 7X, C3, and V51MA
    which is very active.

    "You can even hear SSTV signals on 28.680 MHz.

    "This past Sunday took time to work some stations from I, EA, T7,
    and ON. Then after 1730 UTC began calling on 28.550 MHz and work 22
    stations including PA, I, F, CX, W, CE, PY, EA8, and LU. All good
    signals. Plus, heard DL for the Work All Germany contest.

    "Some EA stations are heard well into the 2100 UTC which is like
    11pm their local time.

    "So, give it a try, this contest season looks very interesting, you
    may call this the 'Rise of Ten.'"

    Angel added that with his Yaesu FTDX10 he can see the activity
    across 10 meters.

    Bob, KB1DK writes:

    "I have been using the MUF map from the KC2G website since it was
    mentioned by N4KZ in your September 16th bulletin. It is very
    accurate and is now my go-to source to know what is actually
    happening propagation wise before I turn on the rig.

    "The auto refresh MUF map reflects the actual and changing band
    conditions. The map has been consistently 'spot on' during my first
    month of use. I highly recommend the website.

    "Over the past three weeks, both 10 and 12 meter SSB have been great
    from my Connecticut QTH. I worked many newcomers to 12 meters who
    were impressed with both the propagation and the minimal QRM.

    "The first two weeks in October was very busy on 10 meters. Weekends
    were like a contest, with solid activity between 28.300 and 28.600
    Signals were quite strong and many stations were heard here for
    several hours straight. While I was able to make SSB contacts to
    Saudi Arabia, Zambia, and Australia, I was not able to make contact
    with Japan. The signals from Japan were readable and they were
    working stations from the west coast."

    The site is, https://prop.kc2g.com .

    A new photo of a solar flare:

    https://bit.ly/3MMAbRb

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for October 13 through 19, 2022 were 57, 51, 50, 59,
    84, 50, and 50, with a mean of 114.9. 10.7 cm flux was 130, 120.5,
    115.1, 119.2, 125.6, 113.9, and 113.2, with a mean of 155.3.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 18, 18, 16, 6, 6, and 5, with
    a mean of 13.3. Middle latitude A index was 4, 16, 15, 11, 4, 4, and
    3, with a mean of 10.4.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@1:2320/33 to All on Fri Oct 28 12:25:46 2022

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP043
    ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP43
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 43 ARLP043
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA October 28, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP043
    ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA

    Sunspot activity seems listless. Average daily sunspot numbers went
    from 57.3 to 58.4 (see note at the end of the bulletin concerning
    last week's averages) while solar flux went from 119.6 to 113.2.

    On Thursday, the day after the reporting week ended, the sunspot
    number was 72, over 13 points above the previous 7 day average.
    Perhaps this is a promising sign.

    The middle latitude geomagnetic numbers this week are wrong. See
    what I mean:

    https://bit.ly/3W7nCnB

    I emailed a contact at NOAA about this, and here is the reply:

    "Mid lat numbers are absolutely NOT correct.

    "Fredericksburg magnetometer is undergoing maintenance this week and
    has been flaky. I've alerted the individual acting in my absence as
    well as our developers to see if we can get that cleaned up."

    So, the middle latitude numbers presented here at the end of the
    bulletin are my own very rough estimates, trying to correlate with
    the high latitude and planetary numbers. My NOAA contact emailed me
    the data from the Boulder magnetometer, which can be used in lieu of
    the Fredericksburg data, and he noted that my estimates were not far
    off.

    Here is what he sent me:

    A index (Boulder) 7, 4, 22, 13, 6, 5, 4 with a mean of 8.7
    A index (K7RA estimate) 5, 4, 24, 15, 7, 5, 4 with a mean of 9.1

    Average daily planetary A index went from 18.6 to 10.4, and middle
    latitude numbers from 8.1 to 9.1.

    Predicted solar flux is 125 on October 28 to November 3, 112 on
    November 4-5, 118 on November 6-9, 115 on November 10-12, 112 on
    November 13-14, 110 on November 15, 108 on November 16-18, 104 on
    November 19, 100 on November 20-23, 98 on November 24-25, 100 on
    November 26, then 105 on November 27-28, 110 on November 29, 112 on
    November 30 through December 2, and 118 on December 3-6.

    The rise in solar flux in the first week in November to 160
    presented in the previous two bulletins is gone from the current
    prediction. But this Thursday solar flux forecast is more optimistic
    for the near term than the Wednesday forecast in yesterday's ARRL
    Letter.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8, 18, 22, 15, 12, 10 and 8 on
    October 28 through November 3, 5 on November 4-9, then 18, 18 and 15
    on November 10-12, 5 on November 13-17, then 25, 18, 17 and 12 on
    November 18-21, 5 on November 22-23, then 8, 15 and 20 on November
    24-26, then 15, 15 and 12 on November 27-29, and 5 on November 30
    through December 6.

    From F. K. Janda, OK1HH:

    "Not much happened on the Sun over the past few days from the point
    of view of a terrestrial observer. Overall activity was low. Of
    note, the co-rotating interaction region (CIR) hit Earth's magnetic
    field on October 22, sparking a G1-class geomagnetic storm and
    bright auroras around the Arctic Circle.

    "Earth's magnetic field calmed down and active sunspot regions began
    to sink beyond the southwestern edge of the solar disk, while others
    emerged in the northeast.

    "Although helioseismic maps revealed interesting activity on the
    Sun's far side, this will likely end before it emerges on the
    eastern edge of the solar disk."

    Scott, N7KQ in Fort Meyers, Florida wrote:

    "I wish I had sent this earlier. I worked Japan twice lately on 10
    meters from Southwest Florida. Once on October 12th (JM7OLW) and on
    October 18th (JA1KIH) using an indoor dipole above the garage at 14
    feet. Both were weak but 100% copy. They both reported the same for
    my signal. These contacts were CW, and I run 500 watts."

    10 meters has been much better lately, and for Scott, working
    stations in Japan is more difficult than for me in Seattle, where we
    have always had a pipeline to Japan. His path length is about 7,000
    miles, while mine is only about 5000 miles, and I recall during past
    sunspot cycle peaks calling CQ running barefoot into a low dipole
    produced huge pileups of JA signals.

    My own 10 meter CW beacon (K7RA/B, 28.2833 MHz) has been getting
    more reports lately. A couple of listeners even mailed QSL cards.

    Thanks to Darrel, AA7FV for a tip that led me to a news item about a
    gamma ray burst.

    Be sure to visit Spaceweather.com and using the archives feature in
    the upper right corner, go to October 18 to read about the October 9
    gamma ray burst, and the amateur astronomer who detected it using an
    unusual VLF antenna.

    This burst of energy happened 2.4 billion years ago and took that
    long to reach us.

    Here is what stage Earth was in at that time:

    https://bit.ly/3znjztv

    More info on the event:

    https://bit.ly/3FwRZOi

    Here is a link to Darrel's own data, labeled Agua Caliente:

    https://stanford.io/3U5i0IU

    Did you know there is crowd sourced geomagnetic data, using smart
    phones? You can participate:

    https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/crowdmag-magnetic-data

    Here is a Forbes article on doomsday flares:

    https://bit.ly/3W8IJpy

    Some tabloid news on flares:

    https://bit.ly/3gLn1YL

    Something even worse than a Carrington Event?

    https://bit.ly/3zo5SdR

    In last week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP042 the averages
    were wrong.

    The correct averages for the numbers at the end of the bulletin in
    ARLP042 were 57.3, 119.6, 10.6 and 8.1 for sunspot number, solar
    flux, planetary A index and middle latitude A index respectively.
    The wrong numbers were actually from the previous week.

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for October 20 through 26, 2022 were 33, 60, 55, 65,
    46, 72, and 78, with a mean of 58.4. 10.7 cm flux was 115.8, 109.4,
    105, 108.4, 114.8, 116.3, and 122.4, with a mean of 113.2. Estimated
    planetary A indices were 7, 5, 27, 16, 8, 5, and 5, with a mean of
    10.4. Middle latitude A index was 5, 4, 24, 15, 7, 5, and 4, with a
    mean of 9.1.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@1:2320/33 to All on Fri Nov 4 10:30:14 2022

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP044
    ARLP044 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP44
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 44 ARLP044
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA November 4, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP044
    ARLP044 Propagation de K7RA

    Solar activity perked up this week. Average daily sunspot number
    rose from 58.4 to 70.3, and solar flux averages increased from 113.3
    to 129.9.

    There are still problems with the Fredericksburg magnetometer, so I
    used numbers from the Boulder, Colorado magnetometer for the middle
    latitude A index.

    At 2318 UTC on November 3, 2022 the Australian Space Weather
    Forecasting Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning:

    "Increased geomagnetic activity expected due to coronal hole high
    speed wind stream from November 4-5."

    Planetary A index averages went from 19.4 to 13.7, and middle
    latitude numbers changed from 9.1 to 14.3.

    The solar flux prediction shows the highest values over the next
    week, starting with 130 on November 4, then 135 on November 5-6,
    then 130, 135, 130, and 125 on November 7-10, 115 on November 11-12,
    112 on November 13-14, 110 on November 15, 108 on November 16-18,
    104 on November 19, 100 on November 20-23, 98 on November 24-25,
    then 100, 105, 105 and 110 on November 26-29, then 112 on November
    30 through December 2, then 118 on December 3-6, 115 on December
    7-9, and 112 on December 10-11.

    Predicted planetary A index is 22. 30, 15, and 8 on November 4-7, 5
    on November 8-10, then 18 and 15 on November 11-12, 5 on November
    13-17, then 25, 15 and 8 on November 18-20, 5 on November 21-22,
    then 8, 15 and 25 on November 23-25, 15 on November 26-27, then 18,
    12, 10, 12, 20 and 15 on November 28 through December 3, then 5 on
    December 4-6, 18 on December 7-8, 15 on December 9, and 5 on
    December 10-14, and 25 on December 15.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

    "The evolution of solar activity, the Earth's magnetic field and the
    state of the ionosphere in recent days has been varied, but not easy
    to describe in a concise way (which is my aim).

    "The reason for this is the variability of the evolution and the
    absence of energetically significant phenomena.

    "A week ago, there were five quiet sunspot groups on the Sun. None
    of them posed a threat of strong flares. All had stable magnetic
    fields that did not look like they would result in an eruption.

    "Then, on the far side of the Sun, a sunspot appeared so large that
    it changed the way the Sun vibrated.

    "Helioseismic maps revealed its acoustic echo several days beyond
    the Sun's northeastern edge. What mattered to us was that it was
    about to appear at the northeastern limb of the Sun's disk.

    "On October 26, we were delighted to see the Solar Dynamics
    Observatory (SOD) satellite, which is in geostationary orbit,
    studying the Sun's influence on planet Earth and the surrounding
    universe.

    "Most important for the forecast is the SDO/AIA image of coronal
    holes, which may alert us to the possibility of an ionospheric
    disturbance. We were cheered up by the fact that the Sun looks like
    a jolly smiley face or a Halloween pumpkin, seen on
    https://bit.ly/3fB1VvQ, just days before Halloween!

    "A cheerful image, created by coronal holes in the Sun's atmosphere,
    but mainly spewing a triple stream of solar wind toward Earth.

    "Solar wind data from NOAA's DSCOVR spacecraft indicated that a
    small, unexpected CME may have impacted Earth's magnetic field on
    October 28 around 1400 UTC. A G1-class geomagnetic storm followed
    after midnight UTC on October 29 after Earth entered the solar wind
    stream flowing from the merry hole in the solar atmosphere.

    "(The DSCOVR spacecraft is the Deep Space Climate Observatory. See https://bit.ly/3E2yWKV )

    "Further, there were only four sunspots on the Sun, all of which had
    stable magnetic fields that were unlikely to explode.

    "Another flare took place on November 1 on the far side of the Sun.
    The eruption hurled a CME into space. The blast site will flip to
    the Earth side of the Sun in about a week.

    "Watch for a larger coronal hole that has since moved to the Sun's
    western hemisphere. Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms may result on
    November 5, when a solar wind stream is expected to hit Earth's
    magnetic field. Which will definitely affect shortwave propagation
    conditions. Ideally, and with appropriate timing (daytime, ideally
    afternoon), a significant improvement in the positive phase of the
    disturbance could follow."

    Oleh, KD7WPJ of San Diego, California reported: "On November 1st I
    worked 3 Japanese stations on 10 m CW at 2238-2248 UTC from
    Dictionary Hill (SOTA W6/SC-366) in San Diego, CA. I used 40 watts
    and a homemade vertical with 4 radials."

    Solar blasts in the news:

    https://bit.ly/3NxbY1v

    A Jack-o-Lantern Sun:

    https://www.popsci.com/science/nasa-smile-sun/

    News about radio blackouts!

    https://bit.ly/3fzEi6W

    A smiley Sun:

    https://bit.ly/3UmMRRd

    New videos from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW.

    https://youtu.be/gO0wP6eiS8I

    Part 3 of her mini-course:

    https://youtu.be/-X-zE44x5Fk

    This weekend is the ARRL CW Sweepstakes Contest, in which you work
    domestic stations, and unlike ARRL Field Day, you do get multipliers
    for sections worked. See https://www.arrl.org/sweepstakes for
    details.

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for October 27 through November 2, 2022 were 72, 87,
    97, 68, 56, 63, and 49, with a mean of 70.3. 10.7 cm flux was 129.7,
    129.3, 133.9, 130.5, 127.9, 128.1, and 129.7, with a mean of 129.9.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 16, 26, 12, 11, 8, and 14,
    with a mean of 13.7. Middle latitude A index was 6, 15, 24, 14, 12,
    6, and 11, with a mean of 12.6.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@1:2320/33 to All on Mon Nov 14 14:44:14 2022

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP045
    ARLP045 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP45
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 45 ARLP045
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA November 14, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP045
    ARLP045 Propagation de K7RA

    ARRL headquarters was closed on Friday, November 11, so this
    bulletin is delayed until Monday, but edited and updated Sunday
    night.

    Two new sunspots appeared November 1, one more November 3, two more
    November 4, one more and then another on November 6 and 7, another
    on November 9 and again on November 10, and one more on November 13.
    But sunspot numbers and solar flux seem modest lately, and so are
    the solar flux forecasts.

    Average daily sunspot numbers rose this week, from 70.3 to 78.9, yet
    somehow the solar flux averages stayed the same, 129.9 and 129.9.
    Our reporting week is Thursday through Wednesday, and in the four
    days since, the average rose to 137.9.

    Average daily planetary A index went from 13.7 to 13.4, but the
    middle latitude numbers changed from 14.3 to 9.6.

    Predicted solar flux is 135 on November 14-15, 120 and 110 on
    November 16-17, 105 on November 18-19, then 110, 114, 112 and 114
    on November 20-23, 116 on November 24-26, 118 on November 27-28,
    then 120, 122, 125, 124 and 122 on November 29 through December 3,
    130 on December 4-5, then 125 and 120 on December 6-7, 115 on
    December 8-9, then 120, 118, 116, 115 and 114 on December 10-14, 116
    on December 15-16, 114 on December 17-18, then 112 and 114 on
    December 19-20, and 116 on December 21-23.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on November 14, 10 on November
    15-16, 5 on November 17-19, 15 on November 20, 5 on November 21-22,
    then 8, 16, 26, 15 and 12 on November 23-27, then 8, 15, 26, 16 and
    12 on November 28 through December 2, then 8 on December 3-4, 12 on
    December 5-8, 8 on December 9, then 5 on December 10-14, then 25, 15
    and 8 on December 15-17, 5 on December 18-19, then 8, 26 and 15 on
    December 20-22.

    Angel Santana, WP3GW, wrote:

    "10 meters is getting so better, that today on November 9 at 1319
    UTC had a contact with 3B9FR on 28.522 MHz up 5. He even answered me
    in Spanish."

    That is Rodrigues Island, in the Indian Ocean, more than 9000 miles
    from Puerto Rico.

    More on Rodrigues Island:

    https://bbc.in/3El5MGS

    A new video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/tkpwp_oUMnQ

    Solar flares and radio blackouts:

    https://bit.ly/3EkBFzu

    https://bit.ly/3hkvke8

    Paul, K2PMD, asked:

    "I am a relatively new ham, so please forgive me if this is a dumb
    question. Generally speaking, I understand that a high K index makes
    radio communication more difficult. Why is the K index not included
    in the weekly propagation report?"

    My response:

    "The reason is, there are too many of them. Instead, geomagnetic
    indicators are summarized using the A index.

    "If we listed all the K indices for both middle-latitude and
    planetary, there would be 112 numbers to report.

    "K index is quasi-logarithmic, while A index is linear.

    "The A index for any day is calculated from the 8 daily K indices.

    "https://bit.ly/3zLPLXW

    "I've been using this resource more and more lately, when I want to
    check for possible geomagnetic disturbances in real time:

    "https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index

    "Notice that the numbers are fractional, and it is easy to spot
    trends in real time. K index is always expressed in whole numbers,
    but because these are planetary numbers from many magnetometers, you
    get a finer resolution."

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for November 3 through 9, 2022 were 65, 81, 82, 78,
    80, 85, and 81, with a mean of 78.8. 10.7 cm flux was 125.3, 117.7,
    131.1, 130.8, 134.6, 132.3, and 137.6, with a mean of 129.9.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 26, 16, 10, 4, 19, 12, and 7,
    with a mean of 13.4. Middle latitude A index was 16, 12, 8, 3, 12,
    8, and 8, with a mean of 9.6.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@1:2320/33 to All on Fri Nov 18 13:07:50 2022

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP046
    ARLP046 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP46
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 46 ARLP046
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA November 18, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP046
    ARLP046 Propagation de K7RA

    At 0334 UTC on November 18, the Australian Space Weather Forecast
    Centre issued this geomagnetic disturbance warning:

    "A moderately large coronal hole will rotate into a geoeffective
    location by 19-Nov. Combined with possible weak glancing interaction
    of recent CMEs, geomagnetic activity is expected in the coming days.

    "INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH
    SPEED WIND STREAM FROM 19-20 NOVEMBER 2022."

    Sunspot numbers and solar flux did not seem to correlate this week.
    Flux rose, while spots fell.

    Average daily sunspot number declined from 79.8 to 72.3, but average
    solar flux rose from 129.9 to 137.2.

    This suggests the number and area of sunspots was less, but the 10.7
    cm radiation from those spots increased.

    A new sunspot emerged on November 10, another on November 13, and
    two more on November 16, the last day of our reporting week, which
    runs Thursday through the following Wednesday. Another sunspot group
    emerged the next day on November 17.

    How is this sunspot cycle progressing? One year ago, in our bulletin
    average daily sunspot number was only 36.4, solar flux was 89.1, so
    if the latest activity seems a bit lackluster, we can see the cycle
    making steady progress. Solar Cycle 25 is expected to peak around
    July 2025, about 32 months from now.

    So why do we care about these numbers? We get better HF propagation
    at higher frequencies when x-rays from the Sun are more intense, and
    they correlate with sunspot numbers and the 10.7 cm radiation. This
    radiation charges the ionosphere, increasing density.

    Back in 1957-59 at the peak of Solar Cycle 19 the radiation was so
    intense that (I've been told) 10 meters was open worldwide, around
    the clock. Solar Cycle 19 had by far the highest sunspot count in
    recorded history, with nothing like it before or since.

    Here is the prediction for solar flux, from Thursday which has lower
    short term numbers than the Wednesday forecast presented in the ARRL
    Letter.

    Expect 118 on November 18-21, 120, 122 and 122 November 22-24, 115
    on November 25-26, then 120 and 125 on November 27-28, 130 on
    November 29-30, 135 on December 1-12, 120 and 110 on December 13-14,
    then 105 on December 15-18, 110 on December 19, and 115 on December
    20-23, then back to 135 before the New Year.

    Predicted planetary A index, which gives us a clue to possible
    geomagnetic unrest, is 10, 18, 28, 12 and 8 on November 18-22, 5 on
    November 23-24, then 15, 18, 12 and 8 on November 25-28, 5 on
    November 29-30, then 12, 18 and 8 on December 1-3, 5 on December
    4-7, 8 on December 8-9, 5 on December 10-11, 10 on December 12-13, 5
    on December 14-16, 15 on December 17, then 18 on December 18-19, and
    5, 8, 15, 18, 12 and 8 on December 20-25.

    Coming up is the annual ARRL 10 Meter Contest, over the weekend of
    December 10-11. Expect better propagation than we saw in 2020 and
    2021. Although predicted solar flux is not particularly high, the
    prediction above shows the highest solar flux (135) over that
    weekend, and planetary A index at a low value of 5, indicating
    predicted geomagnetic stability. But of course, things may change.

    The comment above about Solar Cycle 19 in the ARRL Letter brought
    this response, from a ham who was there, and just in time for
    Friday's bulletin.

    Roger, K6LMN in Los Angeles, California wrote:

    "10 meters SSB and the beacons most days are very good. South
    America comes as if over a coax cable terminating here in Los
    Angeles. But I need 6 more countries worked/confirmed on 10M SSB to
    make 150.

    "Also please wake up the 'magic band' 6m because I need a few more
    grids on 6M SSB to make 425 confirmed.

    "Solar Cycle 24 was OK on 6M and I'm hoping 6M goes wide open this
    Solar Cycle 25, after all I am 84 years old and probably this is my
    last solar cycle.

    "I need more Euro stations and am sorely lacking on the Middle East
    and parts of Africa. I cannot compete with you East Coasters.
    Namibia was coming in the other day, but the Midwest and east
    coasters fought it out. No luck so I gave up. Ah, but I get even
    with you easterners since the Pacific area is a piece of cake here
    in Los Angeles.

    "About Solar Cycle 19. I was a teenager when licensed in 1955 as a
    Novice. I heard stations from all over the world on HF and 6M. I
    hurried up and got my Tech license and then my General a few years
    later.

    "HF and 6M stations were coming in 24/7 from all over the world. I
    only had 90 watts and a dipole, all on AM, but WOW the stuff I
    worked and heard was just incredible. Mostly peaking around
    1956-1957!"

    OK1HH writes:

    "Over the past two weeks, several active regions crossed the solar
    disk, the most significant was the trio of AR3140, AR3141 and
    AR3145, which crossed the central meridian on November 10-11.

    "Most attention was drawn to the magnetically complex and almost
    daily flare-producing AR3141, which allowed a smaller version of
    itself to grow in its northwestern part. The result (see
    https://bit.ly/3Askfyi ) reminded fans of 'Hitchhiker's Guide to the
    Galaxy President Zaphod Beeblebrox.'

    "The solar flux has not dropped below 130 sfu since November 5,
    while the Earth's magnetic field has been quiet since November 9.
    The result has been a relatively long period of above-average
    shortwave propagation conditions.

    "Beginning November 17, we expected an increase in geomagnetic
    activity as a consequence of, among other things, the CME of
    November 14. However, there will likely be a delay of a day or two
    from the original forecast. Therefore, if the disturbance begins on
    November 18 or 19, preferably during the daylight hours, there may
    be further improvement in conditions, and deterioration in the next
    phase of the disturbance."

    ARRL SSB Sweepstakes is this weekend. Even if you are not a serious
    contest operator, it is easy and fun to give out fresh contacts to
    stations on the air, especially toward the end of the event when
    participants are eager for new, fresh stations.

    A new report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/xLkS3-xp5jM

    Here is a video that makes it appear there is a Sun serpent:

    https://bit.ly/3hVOLKR

    Thanks to reader David Moore for the following online stories on
    solar activity:

    https://bit.ly/3V6jinh

    https://bit.ly/3V0isIY

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for November 10 through 16, 2022 were 79, 57, 65,
    74, 77, 69, and 85, with a mean of 72.3. 10.7 cm flux was 138.7,
    137.6, 138.2, 137, 141.5, 134.2, and 132.9, with a mean of 137.2.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 2, 9, 5, 7, 4, 2, and 2, with a
    mean of 4.4. Middle latitude A index was 2, 9, 3, 6, 3, 2, and 2,
    with a mean of 3.9.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@1:2320/33 to All on Mon Nov 28 12:30:18 2022

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP047
    ARLP047 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP47
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 47 ARLP047
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA November 28, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP047
    ARLP047 Propagation de K7RA

    ARRL headquarters was closed for the holiday last Thursday and
    Friday, so this bulletin is delayed until Monday, but has fresh
    content from Sunday night.

    At 2228 UTC on November 27 the Australian Space Weather Forecasting
    Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning: "A coronal hole
    wind stream is expected to induce G1 periods of geomagnetic activity
    from mid 30-Nov to 01-Dec."

    Solar activity softened over the past reporting week, November
    17-23. Average daily sunspot numbers dropped from 72.3 to 66, and
    average daily solar flux from 137.2 to 116.5.

    In the four days since the end of the reporting week the average
    daily solar flux sunk to 106. But we look forward to rising solar
    flux, peaking at 135 on December 12 and again on January 8.

    In 2021 Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP047 the average daily
    sunspot number was only 30.9, and solar flux was 80.8, so we can see
    Solar Cycle 25 is progressing nicely.

    Average daily planetary A index rose slightly from 4.4 to 5.1, and
    middle latitude numbers declined from 3.9 to 3.4.

    Two new sunspot groups emerged on November 16, one more on November
    17 and another on November 18. Two more appeared, the first on
    November 21 and the second on November 23. No new sunspots appeared
    in the following four days. The peak sunspot number was 83 on
    November 21.

    Predicted solar flux is 105 and 110 on November 28-29, 115 on
    November 30 through December 3, 120 on December 4, 125 on December
    5-10, then 130, 135 and 130 on December 11-13, 125 on December
    14-17, 120 on December 18, 125 on December 19-24, and 120 on
    December 25-31, then 125 on January 1-6, 2023 then 130 and 135 on
    January 7-8.

    Predicted planetary A index is 10, 15 and 18 on November 28-30, then
    10, 18 and 10 on December 1-3, 5 on December 4-7, 8 on December 8-9,
    5 on December 10-16, then 10, 26, 15 and 8 on December 17-20, then
    10, 15, 8 and 10 on December 21-24, 8 on December 25-27, then 12, 18
    and 8 on December 28-30, and 5 on December 31 through January 3,
    2023, then 8 on January 4-5.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote on November 24:

    "Over the past seven days, I have been reminded again of the Woody
    Allen quote, 'If you want to make God laugh, tell him about your
    plans.'

    "At first, the authors of the forecasts of the Earth's magnetic
    field activity (including Tomas Bayer of the Budkov Geomagnetic
    Observatory) predicted an increase to the level of a disturbance on
    November 17. After that, most of the authors already agreed on
    November 19. In the following days, the forecasts were pushed
    forward, finally to 21-22 November. And was there anything? Nothing!

    "Solar activity dropped slightly. The geomagnetic field was quiet
    except for November 18 and 21. The development of shortwave
    propagation was erratic, but not bad, with improvements on November
    17, 19 and 24.

    "For forecasting, we can sometimes use observations obtained using a
    technique called helioseismology. Its map of the Sun's far side on
    November 22nd showed a huge active region. The corresponding
    heliographic longitude will appear at the eastern limb of the solar
    disk in about 10 days. After that, we expect an increase in activity
    and, of course, an improvement in shortwave propagation."

    Occasionally I see a solar report in overseas tabloids that makes me
    laugh out loud, or LOL as they say.

    Here is one. I love the part that says our Sun is the largest star
    in our solar system. No kidding! Normal solar activity becomes an
    existential threat.

    https://bit.ly/3EK9R6o

    That was published on November 25, and no doomsday yet.

    More dire warnings from the same source:

    https://bit.ly/3uc0uYd

    This one is pretty deep, but is about real science:

    https://bit.ly/3ODAKxs

    I haven't seen a new video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, but you
    can check our Space Weather Woman's YouTube videos at https://www.youtube.com/user/SpWxfx .

    Jon Jones, N0JK writes from Kansas:

    "There was an extensive and unexpected sporadic-E opening November
    19 early in the morning. I noted stations on Es about an hour after
    local sunrise here in Kansas.

    "I logged stations in W3 and W4 on 6 Meters on FT8. Signals were
    good at times, the opening lasted here until about 1700 UTC.

    "Sunspot AR3150 produced a M1-class solar flare at 1256 UTC. A
    strong pulse of extreme UV radiation from the flare ionized Earth's
    upper atmosphere. The sporadic-E appeared around 30 minutes later.
    Perhaps this helped spark the Es? This has been the only significant
    sporadic-E opening on 50 MHz so far in November, 2022.

    "The opening was fortuitous. Larry Lambert, N0LL was operating
    portable from rare grid DN90. He made many 6 meter contacts on
    sporadic-E.

    "The ARRL Phone Sweepstakes was on and sporadic-E may have helped
    contestants make contacts on 20, 15 and 10 meters.

    "Today (November 27, 2022) I got on 10 meters Sunday afternoon of
    the CQ World Wide DX CW contest. Stations in Hawaii were very loud
    at 2240 UTC. I logged 4 Hawaiians in 6 minutes running just 5 watts
    and a magnet mount whip on a BBQ grill. 10 can be amazing at times."

    N0JK writes the monthly VHF column, "The World Above 50 MHz" in QST.

    Danny, K7SS reported on the Western Washington DX Club email
    reflector that he worked single band 15 meters in the CQ World Wide
    DX CW contest. "Great to have 15 open again. Not quite at its peak,
    and never had a good opening to EU, except for OH, SM, and LA over
    the top both days.

    "Most EU worked scatter path to the E/SE. Thank goodness for Asia
    action! Lots of JA, BY, and YB folks."

    Danny lives in Seattle, where I live, and we have always had an
    amazing pipeline to Japan.

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for November 17 through 23, 2022 were 64, 55, 59,
    72, 83, 61, and 68, with a mean of 66. 10.7 cm flux was 119.2, 116,
    115.1, 119.1, 117, 115.7, and 113.3, with a mean of 116.5. Estimated
    planetary A indices were 2, 7, 5, 6, 10, 3, and 3, with a mean of
    5.1. Middle latitude A index was 1, 5, 4, 3, 8, 2, and 1, with a
    mean of 3.4.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@1:2320/33 to All on Fri Dec 2 17:48:49 2022

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP048
    ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP48
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 48 ARLP048
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA December 2, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP048
    ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA

    No new sunspots appeared over the past reporting week, November 24
    to 30. But sunspots were visible every day. Then on December 1
    three new sunspot groups emerged. The sunspot number rose from 12
    to 49 and the total sunspot area went from 10 to 330.

    Sunspot numbers and solar flux declined during this reporting week
    (November 24 to 30), with average daily Sunspot number dropping from
    66 to 46, and average daily solar flux from 116.5 to 108.3.

    Solar wind streams from coronal holes kept geomagnetic indicators
    active, with average daily planetary A index jumping from 5.1 to
    18.6, and middle latitude A index from 3.4 to 14.

    On Wednesday, November 30 the magnetometer at Fairbanks, Alaska
    showed the college A index at 54, the highest value over the past
    month. No doubt this produced aurora. The next day the disturbance
    continued, with collage A index at 51. These are very large
    numbers.

    The current prediction from Thursday night has solar flux reaching a
    peak of 130 this weekend, rather than 135 recently predicted. This
    is much earlier than the prediction in yesterday's ARRL Letter. We
    might also see solar flux below 100 around December 24.

    Look for flux values of 120 and 124 on December 2 and 3, 130 on
    December 4 and 5, 125 on December 6 and 7, then 120, 125, 125, 130,
    115 and 110 on December 8 to 13, 105 on December 14 to 17, 100 on
    December 18 to 23, then 95, 105 and 110 on December 24 to 26, 115 on
    December 27 to 30, and 120 on December 31, then 125 on January 1 to
    6, 2023.

    The planetary A index prediction is 20, 10, 18 and 12 on December 2
    to 5, 5 on December 6 and 7, 10 and 8 on December 8 and 9, 5 on
    December 10 to 16, 10 on December 17 and 18, 5 on December 19 to 21,
    then 20, 15, 12, and 10 on December 22 to 25, then 15, 18, 10, 18
    and 10 on December 26 to 30, 5 on December 31 through January 3,
    2023, 8 on January 4 and 5, and 5 on January 6 to 12.

    OK1HH wrote:

    "The course of solar and geomagnetic activity and therefore the
    course of shortwave propagation in the last seven days differed
    significantly from the week before.

    The solar wind speed has increased significantly (from 300 km/s to a fluctuation between 700 and 800 km/s) and the activity of Earth's
    magnetic field mostly increased.

    The changes began on 25 November at 0230 UTC when a shock wave in
    the solar wind hit the Earth. In the ionosphere we could first
    observe an increase in MUF. Further development of the disturbance
    continued only by further irregular deterioration of shortwave
    propagation.

    Enhanced solar flaring activity, including Coronal Mass Ejections
    (CMEs), did give rise to predictions of higher geomagnetic activity,
    but without the possibility of more precise timing.

    On December 1, a new larger sunspot group appeared over the
    southeastern limb of the Sun. So solar activity will not drop, but
    will probably rise again over the next few days.

    Shortwave propagation should therefore no longer deteriorate, rather
    the shortest shortwave bands will gradually open up a little better.
    In the northern hemisphere of the Earth, however, the opening
    intervals will be shorter than in recent weeks."

    Research: "Iterative Construction of the Optimal Sunspot-Number
    Series"

    https://bit.ly/3VLbTtX

    This one is spreading fast, all about hams in Montana on PBS:

    https://www.montanapbs.org/programs/ham/

    Thanks to K7SS and N7SO for the above.

    Solar wind news:

    https://bit.ly/3EVkeUW

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net .

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for November 24 through 30, 2022 were 61, 55, 60,
    56, 52, 25, and 12, with a mean of 46. 10.7 cm flux was 109.7,
    108.5, 107.1, 107.2, 107, 107.9, and 111, with a mean of 108.3.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 20, 16, 15, 24, 25, and 24,
    with a mean of 18.6. Middle latitude A index was 6, 15, 12, 10, 18,
    20, and 17, with a mean of 14.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@1:2320/33 to All on Fri Dec 9 18:17:52 2022

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP049
    ARLP049 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP49
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 49 ARLP049
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA December 9, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP049
    ARLP049 Propagation de K7RA

    Solar activity bounced back in our reporting week, December 1 to 7.
    With solar flux and sunspot numbers dramatically higher and
    geomagnetic activity lower, what could be better? Well, even more
    sunspots, I guess. But this sunspot cycle is already progressing
    better than the prediction consensus, so I am grateful.

    Average daily sunspot numbers increased from 46 to 85, while average
    daily solar flux rose from 108.3 to 137.5.

    How do these numbers compare with a year ago? The week of December
    2 to 8, 2021 had an average daily sunspot number of 24.6 and solar
    flux at 82.6.

    Average daily planetary A index dropped from 18.6 to 14.4, while
    middle latitude numbers declined from 14 to 9.1.

    Predicted solar flux for the next few days is 140 on December 9 to
    11, then 130, and 125 on December 12 and 13, 120 on December 14 and
    15, 110 on December 16 to 19, 115 on December 20 to 22, 120 on
    December 23 to 28, then 125, 130 and 135 on December 29 to 31, then
    140 on January 1 to 6, 2023, then 135 on January 8, 125 on January 9
    and 10, 115 on January 11, and 110 on January 12 to 15.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8 on December 9 and 10, 5 on
    December 11 to 16, 10 on December 17 and 18, 5 on December 19 to 21,
    then 20, 15 and 12 on December 22 to 24, 20 on December 25 to 28,
    then 12, 10, 12 and 8 on December 29 through January 1, 2023, then
    5, 12, 15 and 8 on January 2 to 5, and 5 on January 6 to 12, then 10
    on January 13 and 14, and 5 on January 15 to 17.

    Don't forget the ARRL 10 meter contest this weekend.

    https://www.arrl.org/10-meter

    In North America, that starts on Friday evening, and the latest
    prediction shows a promising high solar flux with low geomagnetic
    numbers, ideal conditions.

    F.K Janda, OK1HH wrote:

    "This week, no dramatic events - no large proton eruptions, and the fluctuations of the solar wind did not deviate from the limits we
    have become accustomed to this year. The most prominent feature was
    the canyon-shaped coronal hole, which paraded from the eastern to
    the western half of the solar disk.

    But its surroundings were changing, especially at its northern end.
    From there, the HSS (high-speed solar wind) probably began to flow
    from there on December 7th, reaching Earth and finally triggering a
    geomagnetic disturbance on the afternoon of the same day.

    Before the aforementioned coronal hole sinks behind the western edge
    of the solar disk in a few days, we can still expect an increase in
    the activity of the Earth's magnetic field and irregular changes in
    the ionosphere.

    Don't expect more accurate predictions.

    A decrease in solar activity will follow, and the decrease in solar
    radiation will add up in the ionosphere to the shortening of the
    day. Only with a delay of several days will propagation improve in
    the longer part of the short wave band."

    Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW wrote:

    "On Wednesday, December 7, 2022, between 1429 and 1432 UTC I
    received the United Kingdom, G9PUC in grid square JO00au calling CQ
    using digital mode FT8 on the experimental 8-meter (40 MHz) band via
    F2 propagation. Distance was 3541 miles, with an azimuth of 050
    degrees.

    The 8-meter experimental band is within the worldwide Industrial-Scientific-Medical (ISM) segment between 40.66-40.7 MHz
    with a 40 kHz bandwidth, center frequency on 40.680. Licensed users
    are the Fixed, Mobile and Earth exploration- satellite service.

    G9PUV resides in Iford, England and has an Innovation Trial
    license from Ofcom to conduct research on 8 meters for 12 months,
    starting April 1, 2022.

    Paul uses an Icom IC-706 rig into a W4KMA Log Periodic antenna
    (custom 18-100 MHz) at 49 feet AGL at 30 watts.

    The noon 10.7cm Radio Flux was 148 sfu. The Estimated Planetary K
    index (3 hour data) 12-15 UTC ramped up to a Kp index of 5.

    I was using the JTDX v2.2.149-32A suite. The Band Activity window
    displayed the following eight decodes.

    142915 -14 0.3 526 CQ G9PUV JO00
    142945 -5 0.3 526 CQ G9PUV JO00
    143015 -4 0.3 526 CQ G9PUV JO00
    143045 -10 0.3 526 CQ G9PUV JO00
    143115 -6 0.3 525 CQ G9PUV JO00
    143145 -9 0.3 525 CQ G9PUV JO00
    143215 -16 0.3 524 CQ G9PUV JO00
    143245 -11 0.3 524 CQ G9PUV JO00

    Less than one hour later, I decoded Ireland, EI2IP in grid square
    IO52 calling CQ using digital mode FT8 via F2. He decoded
    twenty-two times.

    Distance was 3151 miles, with an azimuth of 050 degrees.

    EI2IP resides in Limerick, Ireland. (EI) radio amateurs are
    authorized to transmit on this band without a Test Trial license
    from ComReg.

    The Band Activity window displayed the following decodes.

    152300 -14 0.6 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
    152600 -18 0.4 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
    152630 -13 0.5 1464 CQ EI2IP IO52
    152700 -19 0.5 1464 CQ EI2IP IO52
    152730 -12 0.5 1464 CQ EI2IP IO52
    152800 -22 0.4 1464 CQ EI2IP IO52
    152830 -14 0.4 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
    152900 -11 0.5 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
    152930 -15 0.5 1467 CQ EI2IP IO52
    153000 -21 0.5 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
    153530 -15 0.5 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
    153600 -18 0.5 1464 CQ EI2IP IO52
    153630 -20 0.6 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
    153700 -19 0.6 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
    153800 -14 0.5 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
    153830 -13 0.4 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
    153900 -20 0.6 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
    153930 -18 0.6 1467 CQ EI2IP IO52
    154000 -16 0.5 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
    154030 -20 0.5 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
    154100 -16 0.5 1467 CQ EI2IP IO52
    155700 -20 0.5 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52"

    Thanks to Howard, N7SO for this link:

    https://www.youtube.com/SVAstronomyLectures

    Solar physics:

    https://bit.ly/3Ybi38y

    Dr. Tamitha Skov's tutorial on the ionosphere, 2 years ago:

    https://youtu.be/zUXBeYHTsUk

    WX6SWW Current video:

    https://youtu.be/eAbskTOybvE

    Newsweek sunspot report:

    https://bit.ly/3BlnPuS

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for December 1 through 7, 2022 were 49, 66, 68, 93,
    89, 123, and 107, with a mean of 85. 10.7 cm flux was 118.7, 124,
    133.8, 143,7, 149.8, 144.2, and 148, with a mean of 137.5. Estimated
    planetary A indices were 28, 16, 10, 17, 8, 4, and 18, with a mean
    of 14.4. Middle latitude A index was 18, 11, 7, 10, 7, 2, and 9,
    with a mean of 9.1.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@1:2320/33 to All on Fri Dec 16 10:42:43 2022

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP050
    ARLP050 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP50
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 50 ARLP050
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA December 16, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP050
    ARLP050 Propagation de K7RA

    Heightened sunspot activity over the past week no doubt produced the
    great conditions during last weekend's ARRL 10 Meter contest.

    Compared to the previous seven days, average daily sunspot numbers
    jumped from 85 to 136.9, while solar flux averages increased from
    137.5 to 150.

    Geomagnetic indicators were lower, with planetary A index decreasing
    from 14.4 to 7.7, and middle latitude A index from 9.1 to 6.

    Higher sunspot numbers and lower geomagnetic indicators is an ideal
    combination for favorable HF propagation.

    New sunspots appeared every day except December 12, with one new
    sunspot on December 8, another on December 9, and three more on
    December 10, another on December 13 and one more on December 14.

    N0JK commented on the ARRL 10 Meter contest:

    "What a difference a year makes. 10 was wide open this year for the
    ARRL 10M contest with strong single hop F2 from Kansas to both
    coasts. Europe and Japan in, and I completed WAC (Worked All
    Continents). Operated fixed mobile with 1/4 wave whip. Solar flux
    this year was 148, last year only 78."

    The latest prediction from the USAF via NOAA shows solar flux at
    164, 162, 160, 158, 154, 152 and 150 on December 16-22, then 120 on
    December 23-28, then 125, 130 and 135 on December 29-31, 145 on
    January 1-8, 2023, then 140, 130, 125 and 120 on January 9-12, and
    115 on January 13-18, then 120 on January 19-24.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on December 16-17, 10 on December
    18, 8 on December 19-20, then 12, 8, and 15 on December 21-23, 20 on
    December 24-28, then 12, 10, 12, 8, 5 and 18 on December 29 through
    January 3, 2023, 10 on January 4-5, 8 on January 6, 5 on January
    7-14, 10 on January 15-16, then 5, 20, 15 and 12 on January 17-20,
    and 20 on January 21-24.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

    "Evolving solar activity was erratic over the last seven days,
    starting with the Earth entering a high-speed solar wind stream (up
    to 600 km/s) on 8 December.

    "It came from a canyon-shaped coronal hole that approached the
    western limb of the solar disk. The day after, a magnetic filament
    erupted in the Sun's southern hemisphere, but the CME was weak.

    "We expected a slight increase in solar wind speed around December
    12. However, not only did this not occur, but the solar wind slowed
    to 350 km/s in the following days. At the same time, the Earth's
    magnetic field calmed down.

    "On 12 December, nine groups of sunspots were observed on the Sun,
    the largest number so far in the 25th Solar Cycle. Two days later
    there were eleven sunspot groups.

    "Of these, two regions (AR 3163 and 3165, both with the Beta-Gamma
    magnetic configuration) had moderately strong flares (the strongest
    on 14 December at 1442 UT was M6 class, produced the Dellinger
    effect up to a frequency of 15 MHz). The ejected CMEs have missed
    the Earth for now, and we can expect a possible hit from AR3163. The
    increase in solar radiation caused an increase in MUF and therefore
    the shortest shortwave bands opened up regularly.

    "Decrease in solar activity, increasing geomagnetic activity and
    worsening of short wave disturbances can be expected after December
    20."

    The Dellinger Effect is an SID, or "Sudden Ionospheric Disturbance."

    https://bit.ly/3HCHytO

    David Moore shares this about our Sun's middle corona:

    https://bit.ly/3hvZX0O

    Nine new sunspots. I do not agree that they are dangerous:

    https://bit.ly/3FuPniB

    Interesting speculation. What happens to cryptocurrency during a
    Carrington event?

    https://bit.ly/3BEYtrR

    Newsweek reports on the terminator event:

    https://bit.ly/3YtyAF3

    More and more news about flares:

    https://bit.ly/3W3Vhyc

    https://bit.ly/3HG0XtK

    https://bit.ly/3WpcD8k

    Another Solar Cycle 19?

    https://bit.ly/3FYgioi

    N0JK reports:

    "Some sporadic-E to W1 from Kansas December 15. Logged K1SIX FN43."

    More 6 meter news from KM0T:

    "Well, it took since 1999, but I finally worked my first ZL. In
    fact, 8 of them. Opening lasted on and off here for about an hour.
    Started hearing them just after 0000 UTC. EN40s were working them
    first for about 10 minutes before, which tipped me off. I Then
    worked AA7A in Arizona at +25, so there was a link perhaps to TEP F2
    hop.

    "There was one station calling an FO, but never saw any report of
    the monitoring FO station showing up on PSK reporter. FO was on the
    exact path to ZL, but I don't think there was a hop there, perhaps a
    blind caller to FO. If anyone actually heard them or worked them,
    let us know as that would be an interesting path.

    "My antennas were as low to the ground as they could be due to the
    ice storm. Bottom antenna about 25 feet. (Stacked 6el over 6el,
    20' apart)

    "Now that I think about it, flux was 151 and SSN 148.

    "I'm pretty sure it was E-skip link, just like when I worked Chatham
    Island here some months ago.

    The SW had all kinds of storms (as the whole USA did). I heard snow
    and rain and 'thunder snow' in Arizona.

    "That would make sense of such a strong E-skip link to the SW. With
    the flux only at 151, seems to me this is a good number for TEP if
    you're in the right spot, but not enough to make it to the upper
    Midwest with true F2.

    "I was lucky that our area had ice only in the morning. It rained
    pretty much all day with bouts of ice, but by the time evening came
    around, my ice was off the antennas.

    "Signals were strong actually. I gave -01 to -17 reports on the ZLs.
    +25 and just below given to stateside 7-land stations I worked in
    between the ZLs.

    "First ZL was at 0003 - ZL3NW with -11 sig - I got a -07 report.
    Strongest ZL was at 0033 - ZL3JT with a -01 sig. He gave me a +00.

    "Last ZL was ZL1AKW, where the spotlight moved a bit north. At 0107
    UTC - he had -06 sig and I got a -19 report."

    He did not mention a mode but judging from the signal reports it was
    probably FT8 or FT4.

    W2ZDP reported on December 14:

    "There was a great 6 meter opening yesterday. I first noticed it
    around 2020Z and worked 12 stations in grid 'EM,' all on FT8.

    "I also noticed that a few of them were working ZLs although I
    didn't see the response. After the local 2 meter net at 7 PM local
    time, I again worked a few stations in 'EM' when I started seeing
    both sides of ZLs working stateside stations. After several
    attempts, I finally worked ZL1RS at 0100Z from FM04. Not too bad for
    100 watts and a 4 element beam at 30 feet!"

    Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, the Space Weather Woman, has an
    informative new video:

    https://youtu.be/i0QbCZZpYRY

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for December 8 through 14, 2022 were 115, 116, 111,
    141, 142, 159, and 174, with a mean of 136.9. 10.7 cm flux was 143,
    149.1, 141.7, 147,7, 150.8, 153, and 164.7, with a mean of 150.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 11, 8, 10, 6, 4, and 4, with
    a mean of 7.7. Middle latitude A index was 9, 9, 6, 7, 5, 3, and 3,
    with a mean of 6.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@1:2320/33 to All on Fri Dec 23 10:41:59 2022

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP051
    ARLP051 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP51
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 51 ARLP051
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA December 23, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP051
    ARLP051 Propagation de K7RA

    I am writing this first draft of my penultimate bulletin of 2022,
    about seven hours after the start of Winter Solstice in the Northern Hemisphere, which was on Wednesday, December 21, 2022 at 2147 UTC.
    It is very cold in Seattle, about 17 degrees F on the longest night
    of the year.

    Solar activity was down a bit from the previous week, although it
    was one of those odd occasions when average daily sunspot numbers
    and solar flux changed in opposite directions.

    Average daily sunspot number declined from 136.9 to 124.1, while
    solar flux rose from 150 to 153.8.

    Two new sunspot groups emerged on December 17, one more on December
    19, another on December 21, and two more on December 22.

    Geomagnetic indicators were a bit lower, with average planetary A
    index changing from 7.7 to 6.7, and middle latitude numbers from 6
    to 5.1.

    Due to missing data, I had to fudge one of the numbers, the December
    16 middle latitude A index which I pegged at 7 by eyeballing trends.

    Predicted solar flux appears to reach a short term peak of 160 on
    January 4-7, 2023, which may repeat on the last day of January and
    the first few days in February.

    The forecast shows 130 on December 23-25, 135 on December 26–30,
    138 on December 31, then 140, 150 and 155 on January 1-3, 2023, 160
    on January 4-7, then 158, 156, 154, 154 and 152 on January 8-12, 150
    on January 13-15, then 145, 130 and 120 on January 16-18, 118 on
    January 19-20, then 120, 125 and 127 on January 21-23, 130 on
    January 24-25, then 135, 138, 140, 150 and 155 on January 26, and
    160 on January 31 through the first few days of February.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8, 5 and 8 on December 23-25, 5 on
    December 26-29, 10 and 12 on December 30-31, then 8, 5 and 18 on
    January 1-3, 2023, 10 on January 4-5, then 8, 10 and 6 on January
    6-8, 5 on January 9-14, then 12, 10 and 20 on January 15-17, then
    12, 8, 5 and 18 on January 18-21, and 20 on January 22-24, then 12,
    10, 12, 8 and 5 on January 25-29.

    OK1HH writes:

    "Over the past seven days, we observed up to seven sunspot groups on
    the solar disk, three in succession had sizes and configurations
    suggesting the possibility of an M-class flare.

    "AR3165 fell behind the western limb on December 17, while we
    observed AR3169 the same day. The largest AR3163 went over the limb
    on December 22. Solar activity, both total and flare activity,
    slowly decreased.

    "A shock wave (probably the CME released by sunspot AR3165 last
    week) hit Earth's magnetic field late on December 18, but a
    geomagnetic storm did not develop, only a slight increase in
    geomagnetic activity. This was repeated on December 21 and
    especially the next day, when it was a recurrent disturbance,
    repeated after about 27 days.

    "Solar activity is likely to remain low until Christmas. The
    situation may change next week, when one or more active sunspot
    groups will appear on the eastern limb of the solar disk.

    "Shortwave propagation was mostly above average with slightly
    elevated MUF values. Diurnal variations were erratic. This pattern
    will continue."

    Jon, N0JK wrote:

    "A strong sporadic-E opening on 50 MHz from Kansas to the Gulf Coast
    Sunday December 18.

    "I logged K3FM EM50, WA3GWK EM60, W5THT EM50, and N4UPX EM50 on
    50.313 MHz FT8 around 1600 UTC with strong signals. My station was
    100 watts and an attic dipole."

    More big solar flare news:

    https://bit.ly/3YHi5Wf

    https://bit.ly/3PKXts4

    https://bit.ly/3HXk1DW

    https://bit.ly/3FPgipw

    Found this interesting resource in the ARRL Letter:

    https://haarp.gi.alaska.edu/diagnostic-suite

    From Dr. Tony Phillips on cycles:

    https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2022/12/

    On Thursday using remotehamradio.com I made a 10 meter contact with
    Ralph, VE3LOE. He sent me an email, which I have edited:

    "About 2 years ago I was in touch with Scott McIntosh at the
    National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, CO, who made a minority-opinion propagation forecast for Solar Cycle 25 which
    suggests much higher solar activity than what his colleagues
    predict. See 'Overlapping Magnetic Activity Cycles and the Sunspot
    Number: Forecasting Sunspot Cycle 25 Amplitude' (text dated October
    2020).

    "The latest installment, entitled 'Deciphering Solar Magnetic
    Activity: The (Solar) Hale Cycle Terminator of 2021,' which is at:

    "https://arxiv.org/a/mcintosh_s_1.html

    "I scanned this latter paper just now. Although I am a retired
    engineer from the telecom sector with a PhD in statistical traffic
    analysis of pre-Internet data networks, and understand the
    statistical math used in these papers, I am not a propagation
    expert. However, in the last publication, Figure 10 predicts a mean
    SSN just under 200, higher than other expert predictions. This
    present cycle has been interesting in its statistical variability.

    "I am primarily a 10m enthusiast and use this band on a daily basis,
    generally in the 1300-1700 UTC timeframe when the EU openings take
    place. For some of my other ham interests and operating conditions
    you can visit my QRZ.com page."

    K7RA notes - download this pdf:

    https://arxiv.org/pdf/2209.10577.pdf

    A new report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/pU6i_2FVR2g

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for December 15 through 21, 2022 were 140, 108, 139,
    128, 132, 119, and 103, with a mean of 124.1. 10.7 cm flux was
    165.9, 163.1, 154.6, 155,6, 152.4, 146.4, and 138.7, with a mean of
    153.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 9, 3, 4, 11, 6, and 9,
    with a mean of 6.7. Middle latitude A index was 4, 7, 2, 2, 9, 5,
    and 7, with a mean of 5.1.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@1:2320/33 to All on Fri Dec 30 08:34:05 2022

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP052
    ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP52
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 52 ARLP052
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA December 30, 2022
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP052
    ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA

    This reporting week (December 22-28) saw declining solar numbers and
    rising geomagnetic indicators. Average daily sunspot numbers dropped
    from 124.1 to 96.1, and solar flux from 153.8 to 143.8. Average
    planetary A index rose from 6.7 to 17.3, and middle latitude numbers
    from 5.1 to 12.6.

    Predicted solar flux is 164 and 162 on December 30-31, 160 January
    1-3, 2023, 158 on January 4, 156 on January 5-6, 140 on January 7-8,
    136 on January 9, 130 on January 10-14, then 128 and 125 on January
    15-16, 120 on January 17-20, then 125, 135, 136, 138, 132, 134 and
    132 on January 21-27, 130 on January 28-29, 135 on January 30, and
    140 on January 31 through February 4.

    Predicted planetary A index is 16, 14, 10 and 8 on December 30, 2022
    through January 2, 2023, 5 and 14 on January 3-4, then 18, 18 and 10
    on January 5-7, 5 on January 8-16, then 8, 12, 25 and 20 on January
    17-20, 10 on January 21-22, then 20, 15, 10, 15 and 12 on January
    23-27, and 10, 5 and 18 on January 28-30, then then 10, 10, 8 and 10
    on January 31 through February 3, and a nice quiet 5 beyond that,
    perhaps until mid-February.

    The observatory at Penticton, British Columbia is the source for our
    solar flux numbers, and the staff leaves annually from Christmas to
    New Years. The system is automated, and we get the daily noon
    readings from this source:

    https://bit.ly/3hWlhN1

    Unfortunately, the system crashed on December 24 and no readings
    were posted after Christmas Eve.

    Thanks to Dr. Andrew Gray, Research Council Officer at the Dominion
    Radio Astrophysical Observatory for monitoring his email while on
    holiday and supplying us with the four days of missing data.

    From Thomas Bayer, RWC Prague at the Budkov Observatory:

    "Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period December 30 - January
    05, 2023.

    "Quiet: Dec 30, Jan 2-3
    Unsettled: Dec 30-31, Jan 3-5
    Active: Dec 31-Jan 1, Jan 3-5
    Minor storm: Jan 3-4
    Major storm: 0
    Severe storm: 0

    "We expect a transitional geomagnetic activity decrease during the
    coming two days. Then, about New Year, we expect partial geomagnetic
    activity enhancement again with a possible active event.

    "The other active/minor storm event is expected about January 3 - 4
    in connection with coronal hole 60/-3.

    "Between these events, we expect quiet to unsettled conditions
    generally."

    From F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

    "Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere December 30 - January 05, 2023.

    "A week ago it seemed that the relatively low solar activity would
    remain so until Christmas. All observable sunspot groups had
    relatively stable magnetic fields, not enough to generate major
    flares.

    At the same time, a series of geomagnetically disturbed days
    continued until 27 December, with highly variable and
    difficult-to-predict evolution of ionospheric shortwave propagation.
    Average days were irregularly interspersed with above-average ones.

    "From December 25, sunspot group AR3169 suddenly began to increase.
    Trailing behind it is AR3171, and both are now approaching the
    western edge of the solar disk.

    "The CME observed on Christmas Eve after a magnetic filament
    explosion, likely partially impacted Earth and contributed to the
    slow decline in solar wind speed during the third decade (ten day
    period) of December.

    "According to NOAA forecasts, there is a possibility of G1 class
    geomagnetic storms on December 30-31, when the Earth's magnetic
    field is likely to hit the Co-rotating Interaction Region (CIR). We
    expect increased geomagnetic activity and auroras at higher
    latitudes again.

    "Thanks to helioseismology, we know of three active regions on the
    far side of the Sun. They are large enough to last until their
    heliographic longitudes reach the eastern limb of the solar disk.
    Therefore, total solar activity should not drop much anytime soon."

    Another over-the-top article describing flares as existential
    threats.

    https://bit.ly/3Wy8BuZ

    Unusual solar events:

    https://bit.ly/3hTQiS0

    Big 2022 solar news:

    https://www.livescience.com/solar-storm-stories-2022

    A New Year's forecast from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, our Space
    Weather Woman:

    https://youtu.be/XYIxYsQ2SUk

    Don't forget, New Year's Eve (in North America) and New Year's Day
    is Straight Key Night:

    http://www.arrl.org/straight-key-night

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for December 22 through 28, 2022 were 108, 100, 85,
    107, 96, 89, and 88, with a mean of 96.1. 10.7 cm flux was 131.3,
    127.7, 133.3, 144, 150.5, 159, and 160.4, with a mean of 143.8.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 12, 24, 23, 10, 22, 25, and 5,
    with a mean of 17.3. Middle latitude A index was 7, 19, 15, 8, 19,
    16, and 4, with a mean of 12.6.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@1:2320/33 to All on Tue Jan 10 14:54:13 2023

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP001
    ARLP001 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP01
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 1 ARLP001
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA January 6, 2023
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP001
    ARLP001 Propagation de K7RA

    Two new sunspot groups emerged on December 29, one more on December
    30 and another on January 1, then two more on January 5.

    Solar activity was a little higher, with average daily sunspot
    number rising from 96.1 to 97, and solar flux averages rose 14
    points to 157.8.

    On Thursday, January 5 the sunspot number rose to 103, above the
    average of 96.1 over the previous seven days.

    Predicted solar flux is 154 on January 6, 152 on January 7-8, 150 on
    January 9, 148 on January 10-11, then 146, 148 and 145 on January
    12-14, 140 on January 15-16, 145 on January 17-19, 150 and 155 on
    January 20-21, 160 on January 22-23, 165 on January 24-26, then 160,
    155, 155, 158 and 155 on January 27-31, 150 and 148 on February 1-2,
    145 on February 3-4, 140 on February 5-6, 150 on February 7-9, 145
    on February 10, 140 on February 11-12, and 145 on February 13-15.

    Predicted planetary A index is 12 and 8 on January 6-7, 5 on January
    8-16, then 8, 12, 25, 20 and 10 on January 17-21, 5 on January
    22-24, then 8, 28, 15 and 10 on January 25-28, and 5 on January
    29-30, 18 on January 31 through February 1,15 and 10 on February
    2-3, and 5 on February 4-12.

    OK1HH wrote:

    "Solar activity increased so rapidly in recent years that earlier
    last year it already reached the level predicted for July 2025, the
    predicted peak of the current 25th solar cycle. The year 2022 ended
    with the highest monthly sunspot count in 7 years.

    "Solar flares are already routinely of moderate magnitude (M-class
    in X-rays), while geomagnetic disturbances are so far only very
    rarely in a higher class than G1 (minor). In the G1 class was also
    the disturbance on 30 December, which was triggered by a CIR
    (co-rotating interaction region) impact, as predicted.

    "This week the Earth is in the impact zone of possible eruptions in
    the AR3176 sunspot group directly opposite our planet, which
    produces M-class solar flares. The strongest so far, on December 30
    at 1938 UTC, was class M3.7, which sent a CME toward Earth with an
    expected arrival on January 4 - and the prediction proved correct -
    the disturbance began at 0254 UTC.

    "The CMEs filled the space between the Sun and Earth, and clouds of
    solar plasma shielded the incoming cosmic rays enough to reach a
    six-year low.

    "Thus, since 26 December, we can observe the 'Forbush Decline,'
    named after the American physicist Scott Forbush, who studied cosmic
    rays in the early 20th century and first noticed the relationship
    between them and solar activity. With more CMEs hitting Earth, the
    cosmic ray decline will grow.

    "On January 3 at 1058 UTC, something exploded on the far side of the
    Sun. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) detected a bright
    CME sweeping across the southeastern limb of the Sun. The source of
    the outburst was likely the old sunspot AR3163, which has been on
    the Sun's far side for the past two weeks. We are now starting to
    see it on the solar disk as AR3182, and we might tentatively expect
    an X-class flare from it.

    "The Geminid meteor shower is coming to Earth these days. On the
    first three days of January, the most meteors arrived on January 3
    at 2127 UTC when the Zenithal Hourly Rate (ZHR) of 125.3 was
    calculated. Also, the activity of the sporadic-E layer in the
    ionosphere increased, which we immediately noticed in the fading
    shortwave propagation conditions (because sporadic-E is sporadic).

    "ZHR (Zenithal Hourly Rate) of a meteor shower is the number of
    meteors a single observer would see in an hour of peak activity if
    it was at the zenith, assuming the observing conditions are
    excellent (when and where stars with apparent magnitudes up to 6.5
    are visible to the naked eye)."

    OK1HH mentioned sunspot numbers are ahead of the consensus forecast
    for Solar Cycle 25, so we will compare averages from a year ago with
    current numbers.

    In Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP001 for 2022, the average
    sunspot number reported was 36.4, and 97 in the current report.
    Average solar flux a year ago was 91.4, compared to 157.8 this week.

    Reader David Moore sends along this link about our Sun's corona:

    https://bit.ly/3XaNsXz

    Here is an article on Siberian Radioheliograph:

    https://bit.ly/3vGFJVm

    Solar outburst:

    https://bit.ly/3X6oUio

    A record of old sunspot numbers can be found here:

    https://bit.ly/3XbX8B2

    Solar Terrestrial Activity Report:

    http://www.solen.info/solar/

    Identifying unknown HF signals:

    https://www.sigidwiki.com/wiki/Category:HF

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for December 29, 2022 through January 4, 2023 were
    113, 121, 82, 94, 94, 89, and 86, with a mean of 97. 10.7 cm flux
    was 162.8, 178.3, 164.9, 152.6, 146.4, 148.5, and 151, with a mean
    of 157.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 31, 16, 14, 8, 7,
    and 21, with a mean of 15.4. Middle latitude A index was 8, 22, 10,
    9, 5, 5, and 17, with a mean of 10.9.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@1:2320/33 to All on Fri Jan 13 11:42:49 2023

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP002
    ARLP002 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP02
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 2 ARLP002
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA January 13, 2023
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP002
    ARLP002 Propagation de K7RA

    Wow! Sunspot numbers up, geomagnetic disturbances down. What could
    be better? Okay, maybe Solar Cycle 19, but that was 66 years ago and
    by far the all time largest.

    But this is now, we are in Solar Cycle 25, and this sunspot cycle is
    emerging better than the consensus forecast. It is predicted to peak
    about 30 months from now in Summer 2025.

    Solar cycles tend to ramp up faster than they decline, so we look
    forward to great HF propagation for years to come.

    There were six new emerging sunspot groups in our reporting week,
    January 5-11. The first two appeared January 5, the next on January
    8, another on January 9 two more January 10 and still another on
    January 12, when the sunspot number was 151.

    Average daily sunspot number rose from 97 to 135.9, and average
    daily solar flux from 157.8 to 181.2, compared to the previous seven
    days.

    On Thursday, January 12 the noon solar flux was huge, 211.6, far
    above the 181.2 average for the previous week.

    Average daily planetary A index declined from 15.4 to 6.7, and
    middle latitude A index from 10.9 to 6.1.

    Compare the solar numbers to last year. A year ago in Propagation
    Forecast Bulletin ARLP002 the average daily sunspot number was only
    42.4 (135.9 now) and average daily solar flux was 101.6 (181.2 now).
    10 and 12 meters now have openings every day.

    The solar flux prediction was revised dramatically upward between
    the Wednesday numbers in Thursday's ARRL Letter and the Thursday
    numbers in this bulletin, from 196 to 210 for January 13.

    Predicted solar flux is 210 on January 13 and 14, then 208, 206 and
    204 on January 15-17, 200 on January 18-19, then 180, 160, 130 and
    135 on January 20-23, 140 on January 24-26, 145 on January 27, then
    155, 155 and 160 on January 28-30, 170 on January 31 through
    February 2, 175 and 180 on February 3-4, 185 on February 5-6, then
    180, 178 and 175 on February 7-9, 155 on February 10-12, 145 on
    February 13, 140 on February 14-16, 130 on February 17-18 and
    increasing to 160 by the end of the month.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5, 10, and 8 on January 13-15, 5 on
    January 16-17, then 10, 8, 10 and 8 on January 18-21, 5 on January
    22-24, then 8, 22, 12 and 8 on January 25-28, 5 on January 29-31,
    then 12 and 8 on February 1-2, 5 on February 3-5, then 10, 12 and 8
    on February 6-8, 5 on February 9-13, then 8, 15, 10 and 7 on
    February 14-17, and 5 on February 18-20.

    Jon Jones, N0JK wrote:

    "There was a 6 meter F2 opening between Ecuador and North America
    January 6, 2023 around 1530 UTC, mostly between the Southeast United
    States and Ecuador. Solar Flux was 172.4.

    "Later there was some weak sporadic-E on 6 Meters. I logged W4IMD
    (EM84) at 1942 UTC and W7JW (EN82) on 6 meter FT8 via Es at 1954 UTC
    January 6.

    "High Solar Activity this week."

    N0JK writes "The World Above 50 MHz" column in QST.

    https://www.arrl.org/the-world-above-50-mhz

    OK1HH wrote:

    "Large sunspot groups on the Sun's far side, detected by
    helioseismology after the beginning of this year, showed that the
    region of active heliographic longitude, gradually approached the
    eastern limb of the solar disk. Solar activity increased after their
    arrival. Solar flux rose from 146 on January 2 to 195 on January 11.
    Yet one solar revolution back (December 15) it was only 166 and two
    turns back (November 18) only 116.

    "The January 6 prediction of increasing activity was brilliantly
    confirmed, especially by a large X-class flare in AR3182 with a
    maximum at 0057 UTC.

    Surprisingly, it did not produce a CME - the ejected particles never
    left the Sun.

    "In the following days AR3182 activity was joined by the newly
    erupted AR3184, again in the southeast of the solar disk. An X-class
    flare was observed there as well (X1.9 on January 9 at 1850 UTC).

    "Since most of the large flares in the last few days occurred when
    it was nighttime in Europe, blackouts up to 30 MHz were recorded,
    especially by stations in and around the Pacific. It was not until
    the eruption on January 9 at 1850 UTC that a shortwave blackout was
    seen in the western Atlantic, including east coast of the U.S. On
    January 10, the Sun produced another X-class eruption, from new
    sunspot group AR3186.

    "As active regions approach the central meridian, the probability of
    Earth being hit by particles from possible CMEs increases, or more
    importantly the Earth's magnetic field activity increases, MUF
    levels decrease, and the evolution of shortwave propagation
    conditions gradually somewhat worsens during disturbances that are
    difficult to predict accurately."

    Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW in Pennsylvania (FN20jq) reported, "On
    Thursday, January 12, 29.6 MHz FM went active with 3-hop sporadic-E transatlantic propagation to England, Spain from 1346 thru 1600 UTC,
    then to single hop Es to Puerto Rico at 1813 UTC.

    "Readability ranged from (1) unreadable to (4) practically no
    difficulty, Strength ranged from (1) faint - signals barely
    perceptible to (5) fairly good signals. All signals had deep QSB.

    "Time UTC: Callsign: Grid: Miles
    1346 G3YPZ JO02bs 3,494
    1354,1528 G4RIE IO83rn 3,372
    1413,1521 2E0PLO IO91wm 3,511
    1600 EA2CCG IN92ao 3,660
    1813 KP4NVX FK68vl 1,625"

    Here is a photo of the Sun:

    https://bit.ly/3kfmXSR

    One of a Solar flare:

    https://bit.ly/3W9EWav

    Solar news in the Washington Post:

    https://wapo.st/3iul6sN

    An article on Radio blackouts:

    https://bit.ly/3Xvc4dV

    The Parker Solar Probe:

    https://youtu.be/pOZhPz92Dic

    The latest from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/UPG-BhDybUM

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers January 5 through 11, 2023 were 103, 101, 104, 117,
    142, 201, and 183, with a mean of 135.9. 10.7 cm flux was 154.3,
    172.4, 178.9, 183.8, 190.9, 193, and 195.1, with a mean of 181.2.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 4, 6, 8, 5, 7, and 9, with a
    mean of 6.7. Middle latitude A index was 6, 4, 5, 7, 7, 6, and 8,
    with a mean of 6.1.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@1:2320/33 to All on Fri Jan 20 10:42:13 2023

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP003
    ARLP003 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP03
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 3 ARLP003
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA January 20, 2023
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP003
    ARLP003 Propagation de K7RA

    Last week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP002 opened with "Wow!"
    I don't know what to say about this week, except it is beyond wow.

    This actually has me thinking about Solar Cycle 19.

    Lately we have seen solar flux at the same levels we saw at the peak
    of Solar Cycle 23. If we are about 30 months away from the peak of
    this Solar Cycle 25, could this get us to the 1957-59 levels last
    seen in Solar Cycle 19? Stories from that time tell of worldwide
    coverage 24x7 on 10 meter AM from low power mobile stations.

    Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 135.9 to 173.4, while
    average solar flux went to 221.8 from 181.2. Yesterday the thrice
    daily solar flux reported from the Penticton, British Columbia
    observatory indicated rising solar flux at 224.6, 226.1 and 230.1.
    These are recorded at 1800, 2000 and 2200 UTC. It is the middle
    number, at local noon, that is recorded as the official number for
    the day.

    From Spaceweather.com: "If sunspot production continues apace for
    the rest of January, the monthly sunspot number will reach a 20-year
    high."

    Average planetary A index increased from 6.7 to 13.9,

    On January 15 the planetary A index reached a peak of 30, a very
    high value indicating a geomagnetic storm. Conditions were stormy
    throughout the week, due to flares and CMEs. On that day in
    Fairbanks, Alaska the college A index was 53, a very high number.
    There was a large polar cap absorption event.

    Nine new sunspot groups appeared during this reporting week, January
    12-18. One on January 12, four on January 13, two more on January
    15, and two more, one each on January 17 and 18.

    Predicted solar flux is 220 on January 20-21, 215 on January 22-23,
    210 on January 24-25, 215 on January 26-27, 185 on January 28-29,
    190 on January 30 through February 2, 195 and 200 on February 3-4,
    205 on February 5-6, 210 on February 7-11, then a big jump to 235
    and 230 on February 12-13, 225 on February 14-16, 220 on February
    17, then 215 on February 18-19, 210 and 200 on February 20-21, 190
    on February 22-23, and 185 on February 24-25. Solar flux is expected
    to rise above 200 again in the first week of March.

    Predicted planetary A index is 15, 12 and 8 on January 20-22, 5 on
    January 23-24, then 12, 10, 12 and 8 on January 25-28, 5 on January
    29 through 31, then 12 and 8 on February 1-2, 5 on February 3-6,
    then 12, 12, 15 and 12 on February 7-10, 5 on February 11-13, then
    8, 15, 10 and 7 on February 14-17, 5 on February 18-20, then 7, 18,
    10 and 7 on February 21-24, 5 on February 25-26, then 7, 18, 12 and
    8 on February 27 through March 2.

    OK1HH wrote:

    "Large sunspot groups on the Sun's far side, detected by
    helioseismology at the beginning of this year, showed the region of
    active heliographic longitude gradually approached the eastern limb
    of the solar disk. Solar activity increased after their arrival.

    "Solar flux rose from 146 on January 2 to 195 on January 11. Yet one
    solar revolution back (December 15) it was only 166 and two turns
    back (November 18) only 116.

    "The January 6 prediction of increasing activity was brilliantly
    confirmed, especially by a large X-class flare in AR3182 with a
    maximum at 0057 UTC.

    "Surprisingly, it did not produce a CME - the ejected particles
    never left the Sun.

    "In the following days, the activity of AR3182 was joined by the
    newly erupted AR3184, again in the southeast of the solar disk. An
    X-class flare was observed there as well (X1.9 on January 9 1850
    UTC). Most of the large flares in the last few days occurred during
    nighttime in Europe. Blackouts up to 30 MHz were recorded,
    especially by stations in and around the Pacific. It was not until
    the eruption on January 9 that a shortwave blackout was seen in the
    western Atlantic, including the East Coast of the U.S. On January
    10, the Sun produced another X-class eruption, from new sunspot
    group AR3186.

    "As active regions approached the central meridian, the probability
    of Earth being hit by particles from possible CMEs increases, or
    more importantly the Earth's magnetic field activity increases, MUF
    levels decrease, and the evolution of shortwave propagation
    gradually worsens, especially during disturbances that are difficult
    to predict accurately."

    Sam, KY8R commented on 30 meter propagation:

    "Reading your report it looks good, but I have to tell you 30M is
    like a dead horse in the Sonoran Desert."

    I replied:

    "On FT8 and I make many contacts on 30 meters, but it seems to be
    best around sunrise or sunset, before and after.

    "I just did a prediction with W6ELprop and it shows 30 meters from
    my location (CN87) open during daylight hours to the East Coast, and
    to Texas 24x7 with brief dropouts at 7am local here (1500 UTC) and
    10:30 PM (0630 UTC).

    "From your location, it looks different. To Texas it fades starting
    at 0200 UTC and stays dead until 1400 UTC and is strongest at 1500
    and 2330 UTC.

    "To Atlanta from DM33 (you) it is weakest from 1700-2100 UTC. Of
    course, these are statistical approximations."

    Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW in Easton, Pennsylvania FN20jq is having fun
    on 10 meter FM.

    "Today (January 19) I made a 2-way QSO with John, AL7ID in Fairbanks
    for five minutes from 2028-2033 UTC on the 29.6 MHz national calling
    frequency, then QSY 29.5 FM.

    "I just barely heard him mention the QSY to 29.5.

    "Initially he was 2x2 QSB, then minutes later 3x4 QSB.

    "The FM signal was spreading apart due to F2 propagation and made it
    difficult at times.

    "He was my first Alaska 10-meter FM simplex contact!"

    Mike has a YouTube video of both his Alaska QSO, and another with
    Argentina:

    https://youtu.be/NDZACCqMd08

    Earlier, Mike reported:

    "On Tuesday, January 17th, 29.6 MHz FM went active with multi-hop
    sporadic-E or F2 propagation into France, United Kingdom, Mexico,
    Alaska, and Argentina into the northeast USA.

    "Readability ranged from unreadable to practically no difficulty,
    Strength ranged from faint - signals barely perceptible to fair
    signals. All the signals had light QSB.

    "UTC: Callsign: Grid:
    1544 F5SDD JN23qf
    1617 G4RIE IO83rn
    1803 XE2LVM DL92dp
    2040 AL7ID BP64ku
    2040 LU1HJS FF79XX"

    Jon Jones, N0JK reported:

    "Some interesting 6 meter propagation on January 16.

    "First, there appeared to be a 6 meter F2 opening between Puerto
    Rico and Colorado that morning. K0RI in DM78 and NO0T/P in DN70
    spotted KP4AJ in FK68 around 1550 UTC on 6 meter FT8. No
    intermediate stations spotted. The 10.7 cm solar flux was reported
    to be 234. [Jon had probably not seen the updated flux for that day
    yet. It was actually 228.1 and 234.3 the day before.]

    "Later there was sporadic-E from Kansas to Mexico. I logged XE2JS in
    DL68 at 1605 UTC. He was very strong.

    "That afternoon the TN8K DXpedition to the Congo Republic worked
    PJ4MM, V26OC, and FG8OJ on 6 meter FT8 via F-layer propagation around
    2230 UTC.

    "The ARRL January VHF contest is this weekend. There is a
    possibility of sporadic-E and even some F2 on 6 meters in this
    contest."

    Later Jon reported a 6 meter contact with Mexico.

    Sunspots in the news:

    https://bit.ly/3Hdilp4

    Sky & Telescope with an article on giant sunspot group AR3190:

    https://skyandtelescope.org/astronomy-news/see-a-giant-sunspot/

    An article on 11 year, 100 year, and 2300 year cycles:

    https://bit.ly/3kjVSxC

    Here is the latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/e-p-tpNkOss

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers January 12 through 18, 2023 were 151, 181, 170, 177,
    186, 185, and 164, with a mean of 173.4. 10.7 cm flux was 211.6,
    208.5, 227.8, 234.3, 228.1, 221.7, and 220.3, with a mean of 221.8.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 12, 11, 30, 14, 6, and 15,
    with a mean of 13.9. Middle latitude A index was 8, 10, 9, 17, 10,
    5, and 11, with a mean of 10.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@1:2320/33 to All on Fri Jan 27 11:11:17 2023

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP004
    ARLP004 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP04
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 4 ARLP004
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA January 27, 2023
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP004
    ARLP004 Propagation de K7RA

    From the first week of this year, we saw a dramatic and welcome
    increase in solar activity, but it softened in this reporting week,
    January 19-25.

    Average daily sunspot numbers starting with the final reporting week
    for 2022 were 96.1, 97, 135.9. 173.4 and 162.

    Over the same period, average daily solar flux was 143.8, 157.8,
    181.2, 221.8 and 198.9.

    The northern hemisphere Winter Solstice was over a month ago, and
    through the next two months we will see a gradual transition toward
    Spring conditions.

    Predicted solar flux over the next month shows values peaking near
    205 on February 14-15, but flux values in the next few days are
    lower than those posted in Thursday's ARRL Letter.

    Predicted numbers are 150 on January 27-28, 145 on January 29-30,
    140 on January 31 through February 1, then 145, 150 and a big jump
    to 185 on February 2-4, 190 on February 5-6, 195 on February 7-12,
    200 on February 13, 205 on February 14-15, 200 on February 16-18,
    then 195, 200, and 190 on February 19-21, 185 on February 22-23, 180
    on February 24-25, then 175 on February 26 through March 1, then
    180, 185 and 190 on March 2-4. Flux values are expected to keep
    rising, peaking above 200 again after March 10.

    Predicted planetary A index, an indicator of geomagnetic instability
    is 8 on January 27-28, 5 on January 29 through February 1, 12 and 8
    on February 2-3, 5 on February 4-6, 12 on February 7-8, then 15, 12
    and 5 on February 9-11, 8 on February 12-13, 5 on February 14-17,
    then 8, 10, 10, 12 and 10 on February 18-22, 8 on February 23-25,
    then 5 on February 26-27, then 15, 10 and 8 on February 28 through
    March 2, and 5 on March 3-5, then 15 on March 6-8.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - January 26, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    "We had a week of increased solar activity with areas of sunspots
    visible to the naked eye. These were AR3190 and AR3192. The ejected
    CMEs produced auroras at higher latitudes. Since the geomagnetic
    disturbances were mostly short-lived, they did not cause a
    noticeable deterioration in shortwave propagation.

    "A CME hit the Earth on 17 January at around 2200 UTC. At the same
    time, it also hit the tail of comet ZTF (C/2022 E3) and broke it! A
    piece of the tail of comet ZTF was chipped off and then carried away
    by the solar wind.

    "In recent days, AR3190 was the largest and most active, but even it
    produced no more than moderately powerful flares. Both large
    regions, AR3190 in the southwest and AR3192 in the northwest, are
    beyond the edge of the solar disk by January 26. This is associated
    with a significant drop in solar activity. While we know of other
    active regions beyond the eastern limb of the solar disk, these are
    not large enough to expect a repeat of the January pattern in
    February. But we expect a similarly erratic pattern contributing to
    limited forecasting capabilities."

    Long time reader and contributor David Moore sends us this:

    https://bit.ly/3Jg7V9B

    An article about Starspots:

    https://bit.ly/3Hxoywn

    KA3JAW is still having fun with 10 meter FM on 29.6 MHz.

    On January 26 from 1430-1450 UTC he worked SV6EXH. With QSB, signals
    were 3x3 to 5x5. Earlier on January 21 at 1646 UTC he worked DM5TS,
    signals 4x5 with QSB.

    Jon Jones, N0JK reported:

    "Sunday morning (January 22, 2023) of the ARRL January VHF Contest
    had some great propagation on the 6 meter band. I operated portable
    signing W1AW/0 for VOTA. I was surprised when I turned on the radio
    after setting up and the FT8 band map screen was full of strong
    traces at 1505 UTC.

    "There was a surprise sporadic-E opening Sunday morning to W1, W2,
    W3, VE3, and W8. The Ontario stations were booming in and I had a
    pileup calling. Even some F2 with PJ4MM in FK52 peaking at -8 dB at
    1554 UTC.

    "Even more amazing MM0AMW decoded several W9 stations on 6 meters.
    Several stations I worked, such as KW9A were spotted into Scotland.
    Unsure if the propagation mode was multi-hop Es or F2?

    "Later that evening an Es -- TEP opening from the northeast states
    to South America."

    More dramatic solar warnings.

    https://bit.ly/3XGqNmL

    Here is a prediction that was WAY off:

    https://bit.ly/3Jn9UJl

    Space Weather Woman Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, has a new video:

    https://youtu.be/Vuv3fRUD1Mo

    This weekend is the CQ World-Wide 160-Meter CW contest.

    Check https://www.cq160.com for details.

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers January 19 through 25, 2023 were 166, 197, 194, 166,
    144, 127, and 140, with a mean of 162. 10.7 cm flux was 226.1,
    217.5, 208.7, 198.6, 189.1, 180.2, and 171.8, with a mean of 198.9.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 6, 17, 9, 7, 4, and 7, with a
    mean of 8.1. Middle latitude A index was 6, 4, 11, 7, 5, 3, and 5,
    with a mean of 5.9.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@1:2320/33 to All on Fri Feb 3 08:23:38 2023

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP005
    ARLP005 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP05
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 5 ARLP005
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA February 3, 2023
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP005
    ARLP005 Propagation de K7RA

    Solar activity softened again this week, with average daily sunspot
    numbers changing from 162 to 80.7, and solar flux from 198.9 to
    139.5.

    This is quite a dramatic shift from the excitement of a couple of
    weeks ago. To review, average weekly sunspot numbers from the first
    Propagation Forecast bulletin of 2023 went from 97 to 135.9, 173.4
    and 162. Average weekly solar flux from 157.8 to 181.2, 221.8 and
    198.9.

    This variability is expected. Soon, perhaps in the next solar
    rotation, activity will rise again. The graphs we see of smoothed
    sunspot numbers are smooth because the numbers are averaged over a
    whole year.

    Geomagnetic numbers barely changed at all, with planetary A index
    shifting only from 8.1 to 7.9 and the middle latitude numbers did
    not change at all, 5.9 last week and 5.9 this week.

    Predicted solar flux is 135 on February 3, 140 on February 4-5, 145
    on February 6, 150 on February 7-9, 155 on February 10-13, 150 on
    February 14-16, 145 on February 17, 140 on February 18-19, 135 on
    February 20, 130 on February 21-23, 125 on February 24-25, 140 on
    February 26-27, 135 on February 28 through March 4, then 140 and 145
    on March 5-6, 150 on March 7-8. and 155 on March 9-12.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8, 5 and 5 on February 3-5, 10 on
    February 6-7, 8 on February 8-9, then 12, 5, 8 and 8 on February
    10-13, 5 on February 14-17, then 8, 7, 5 and 5 on February 18-21, 10
    on February 22-24, 5 on February 25-27, then 15, 10 and 8 on
    February 28 to March 2, and 5 on March 3-5, then 15 on March 6-8,
    then 12, 8 and 7 on March 9-11 and 5 on March 12-16.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere February 3-9, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

    "January this year was another surprise in the development of Solar
    Cycle 25, although we are still about two years away from its peak.
    Sunspots have grown larger, while the configuration of the magnetic
    fields that make them up has become increasingly complex, leading to
    an increase in the number and intensity of eruptions, so far only
    moderately powerful.

    "Solar flux between 12 and 21 January was above 200, while the solar
    wind increased.

    "In the last week, after the large sunspot groups AR3190 and AR3192
    fell behind the western limb of the solar disk, solar activity
    decreased. Between January 27-29 and February 1, solar wind
    intensified, apparently still blowing from the active regions that
    had already set.

    "Further, we expect an irregular evolution without major
    fluctuations. Helioseismological observations show that the activity
    of AR3190 and AR3192 continue on the Sun's far side. We'll have to
    wait another week for their reappearance on the eastern limb."

    Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW in Easton, Pennsylvania reports again on his
    10 meter FM activity. He notes the daily solar flux dropped about
    100 points from mid-January, but good 10 meter propagation
    continues.

    Daily from 1300-1600 UTC he has good propagation to Europe, and is
    recently hearing Israel on 10 meter FM, about 5,700 miles away via
    F2 propagation.

    Mike notes, "Remember, 29.6 MHz is the national FM calling
    frequency, after making the initial contact you should QSY to a
    lower frequency, such as 29.5 or 29.49 MHz, to continue the QSO."

    Jim Hadlock, posting to the email list for the Western Washington DX
    Club noted that sunspot numbers recently hit a 9-year high.

    Jim posted this from Spaceweather.com:

    https://bit.ly/40DEzsj

    Scott Avery, WA6LIE wrote:

    "Today was a fluke on 10 meters FT8. I worked LA7HJA on FT8 on
    Thursday February 2nd at 0041 UTC. He gave me a +04 and I gave him
    a -13 dB report. Great reports and tried calling one other LA, but
    no luck. I confirmed the QSO with his ClubLog.

    "For the past month or so, European openings are from about
    1500-1730 UTC here in California.

    "Have no clue to the method of propagation on this late afternoon's
    QSO. LP?

    "I was just using a wire Delta Loop at 30' feedpoint, part of my
    inverted Vees all common feedpoint.

    "You know in this hobby you just got to be in the right place at the
    right time!"

    Toivo Mykkanen, W8TJM in Liberty Lake, Washington wrote:

    "Just had the best Aurora Path into Scandinavia since we last spoke
    last year. Today, 1 Feb, I was able to work 4 stations on SSB in
    Finland from Eastern Washington and all of them were 10-15 dB over
    S9 with a slight bit of flutter. It was 10 PM in Finland, well after
    15 meters usually shuts down there. Was great to connect with my
    heritage as my parents are from Finland. The Finnish stations were
    working stations all across the USA and Canada."

    Bil Paul, KD8JUI, recalling television reception at the peak of
    Solar Cycle 19, wrote:

    "We were in Wisconsin, around '58 or '59, and we could usually only
    pick up with good reception two TV stations. One Sunday morning I
    got up and switched on the TV. I started getting good reception from
    the SE U.S., Georgia and Florida.

    "As time went on, the skip gradually changed to receiving Alabama
    and Mississippi, and finally ended with Texas. I'm not sure what
    frequencies were being used for those channels (2 through 13) back
    then."

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers January 26 through February 1, 2023 were 104, 84,
    76, 80, 67, 65, and 89, with a mean of 80.7. 10.7 cm flux was 150.6,
    144.9, 137.6, 137, 135.9, 137, and 133.5, with a mean of 139.5.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 9, 10, 5, 5, 9, and 6, with a
    mean of 7.9. Middle latitude A index was 9, 6, 8, 5, 4, 6, and 3,
    with a mean of 5.9.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@1:2320/33 to All on Fri Feb 10 10:49:40 2023

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP006
    ARLP006 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP06
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 6 ARLP006
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA February 10, 2023
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP006
    ARLP006 Propagation de K7RA

    A period of rising solar activity returned this week.

    Ten new sunspot groups appeared this reporting week (February 2-8),
    two on February 3, one each on February 4-5, four more on February
    6, and two more on February 8.

    On February 9, three more sunspot groups emerged.

    Early on February 9 Spaceweather.com reported a large emerging
    sunspot over our Sun's southeast horizon.

    Average daily sunspot number this week rose from 80.7 to 95.1, and
    average daily solar flux from 139.5 to 155.9.

    On Thursday, February 9 both the sunspot number and solar flux were
    above the average for the previous seven days. Sunspot number at 150
    compared to the average 95.1 and solar flux at 214.9 compared to the
    average of 155.9. Both indicate an upward trend.

    Geomagnetic indicators rose, planetary A index from 7.9 to 11.7,
    middle latitude numbers from 5.9 to 7.6.

    The rise in geomagnetic activity was related to solar wind late in
    the reporting week.

    The solar flux prediction on Wednesday was 192 for February 9 (the
    actual noon solar flux was 214.9), then 195 on February 10-13. As
    you can see below, the Thursday prediction is more optimistic for
    the next few days.

    Predicted solar flux is 214 on February 10, 212 on February 11-13,
    then 208, 205 and 202 on February 14-16, 150 on February 17-18, then
    145, 140, 135, 130 and 135 on February 19-23, 130 on February 24-26,
    125 on February 27, 130 on February 28 through March 3, then 135,
    150 and 160 on March 4-6, 155 on March 7-8, 160 on March 9, and 155
    on March 10-12, then 150 on March 13-17.

    Predicted planetary A index is 12 and 8 on February 10-11, then 5
    on February 12-17, 8 on February 18-19, 5 on February 20-21, 10 on
    February 22-24, then 5, 5 and 8 on February 25-27, and 5, 5, and 8
    on February 28 through March 2, then 5, 5, and 10 on March 3-5, then
    15, 15, 12 and 8 on March 6-9, then 5 on March 10-16, 8 on March
    17-18, 5 on March 19-20 and 10 on March 21-23.

    F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

    "Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - February 9, 2023.

    "Solar activity was lower between 26 January and 6 February, as
    expected. Two weeks ago, large sunspot groups AR3190 and AR3192,
    fell behind the Sun's western limb. They have now appeared near the
    eastern limb as AR3217 and AR3218. In particular, the region of
    AR3217 was already letting us know of its activity with plasma
    bursts before we could observe it.

    "Thereafter we observed moderate flares in it. AR3217 and AR3218
    will now move through the solar disk, and the increase in solar
    activity will continue.

    "On February 7, rapidly developing sunspot group AR3213 suddenly
    appeared, where at most only two small spots could be observed
    shortly before. Medium-sized flares were observed in AR3213 in the
    following days.

    "Another new activity was the increase in the Earth's magnetic field
    activity starting on February 6.

    "The subsequent increase in the MUF (highest usable frequencies of
    the ionospheric F2 layer) has been slow and irregular so far. We
    will have to wait a few more days for its higher values."

    Check out Scott Craig, WA4TTK and his Solar Data Plotting Utility.
    He wrote it several decades ago back in the days of MS-DOS, and the
    Windows version still works today. It displays sunspot numbers and
    solar flux all the way back to January 1, 1989:

    http://www.craigcentral.com/sol.asp

    Click the "Download SOL313W.ZIP" file to install the program, then
    download the updated GRAPH.dat file for the latest data. It is
    updated to last week, so you can try out the data insertion on this
    bulletin.

    He posted a new copy of the data file, provided by N1API.

    The utility will update the data every week by pointing it toward a
    copy of our bulletin in .txt format.

    The GRAPH.dat file is in text format and can be imported into a
    spreadsheet program to display the data any way you want.

    Tech Times and Weather.com articles on a Radio Blackout:

    https://bit.ly/40J3g6m

    https://bit.ly/3lojTnY

    KB1DK sent this article about something occurring on our Sun:

    https://bit.ly/3Xju0r9

    Larry, W0OGH in Cochise County, Arizona wrote:

    "Who says you can't have fun running QRP?

    "I started playing with QRP on CW, my KX3 at 10W and 10M 4 element
    Yagi just after February 1.

    "Why so late in the game? I don't know but maybe it was because the
    signals took such an upturn in strength.

    "Have been working some POTA stations QRP but no DX until February 1
    when I worked E77DX, OK9PEP, PA1CC, DS2HWS, UA1CE, YL3FT, UY2VM,
    HB0/HB9LCW, OT4A, ON4KHG, S01WS, ZX89L, CX5FK, 9A/UW1GZ, LZ1ND,
    PA3EVY, YU1JW, F6IQA, EA6ACA, ON5ZZ, GM4ATA, OP4F, EI0CZ and many
    more, all on 10 meters.

    "But the kicker and best of all was working EP2ABS on the morning of
    2/6/23 at 1654 UTC on 28.0258 MHz.

    "First time ever in 65 years that I have ever worked an Iran station
    much less heard one. He was really strong and calling CQ getting no
    answers. At the same time I called him, another station called as
    well but he came back to me.

    "Thereafter he had a pileup, but his signal started dropping off, so
    I caught him at the right time. Maybe a duct? Yep, the DX is out
    there on 10M and when the band is hot, you gotta be there.

    "I have even worked some AM stations on and above 29.000 MHz with
    QRP. Lots more fun than high power which in my case is 100W from my
    K3."

    A friend here in Seattle worked him on the same day, was very
    surprised, and mentioned a friend in California who worked EP2ABS
    with 100 watts and an 18 foot wire.

    Another "news" source reporting rising solar activity as some sort
    of existential threat:

    https://bit.ly/3YiRcXP

    https://bit.ly/3RQ8CZz

    A more reliable source:

    https://bit.ly/3YAAIu4

    Dr. Tamitha Skov's, WX6SWW, latest report from February 5:

    https://youtu.be/1Bcmzj7h_mY

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net . When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for February 2 through 8, 2023 were 56, 74, 66, 79,
    139, 110, and 142, with a mean of 95.1. 10.7 cm flux was 134.9,
    134.5, 139, 144, 156.7, 184.7, and 197.6, with a mean of 155.9.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 9, 6, 5, 18, 20, and 18, with
    a mean of 11.7. Middle latitude A index was 2, 6, 5, 3, 13, 12, and
    12, with a mean of 7.6.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@1:2320/33 to All on Fri Feb 17 14:00:31 2023

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP007
    ARLP007 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP07
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 7 ARLP007
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA February 17, 2023
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP007
    ARLP007 Propagation de K7RA

    At 0725 UTC on February 15 the Australian Space Weather Forecasting
    Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning: "A CME impact
    occurred around 2200 UTC on February 14. Bz has been southward for
    the majority of time since impact and there is a chance of G1
    geomagnetic conditions."

    Bz is the north-south direction of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
    (IMF).

    They predicted a disturbance for February 15-16.

    They issued a new warning on February 17 at 0206 UTC:

    "A partial halo CME observed on 15-Feb is due to impact Earth's
    magnetosphere late on 17-Feb or early 18-Feb UTC. G1 geomagnetic
    conditions are expected on 18-Feb, with a slight chance of G2.

    "INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL MASS
    EJECTION FROM 17-19 FEBRUARY 2023."

    For the latest geomagnetic conditions, I prefer this source:

    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index

    More on the IMF:

    https://bit.ly/3E6IZ15

    Many sunspots appeared over this reporting week (February 9-15) with
    three new sunspot groups on February 9, one more on February 10, two
    more on February 11, another on February 12 and three more on
    February 13. Finally, there was one more yesterday, Thursday,
    February 16.

    Recent sunspot images:

    https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/12feb23/hmi1898.gif

    That one is for February 12. To see February 13, just change the
    12feb23 string to 13feb23, and so on, for any other date.

    Average daily sunspot numbers increased from 95.1 to 182.4, and
    average daily solar flux from 155.9 to 196.4.

    Geomagnetic activity also rose, with average daily planetary A index
    going from 11.7 to 13.7, and middle latitude numbers from 7.6 to
    10.7.

    The most active days were at the beginning and end of the week, with
    planetary A index at 21 on February 9 and 29 on February 15. On
    those two days the college A index at Fairbanks, Alaska was 33 and
    46. The quietest day was Monday, February 13 when the planetary A
    index was 4.

    The outlook for the next month seems modest, with predicted solar
    flux at 155, 160, 155, 145 and 135 on February 17-21, 125 on
    February 22-23, 130 on February 24-26, 140 on February 27 to March
    1, 145 on March 2-3, then 150, 155 and 165 on March 4-6, 180 on
    March 7-13, 170 on March 14-15, 160 on March 16-18, and 150 on March
    19, 140 on March 20-21, and 135 on March 22-25.

    Predicted planetary A index is 22, 30, 12, 8 and 12 on February
    17-21, 10 on February 22-24, then 5, 5 and 8 on February 25-27,
    another 5, 5, and 8 on February 28 through March 2, then 5, 5 and 16
    on March 3-5, then 18, 15 and 8 on March 6-8, and 5 on March 9-20,
    then 10 on March 21-23, and 5, 5 and 8 on March 24-26, and another
    5, 5 and 8 on March 27-29.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - February 16, 2023, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    "On February 11, we observed a seemingly dangerous sunspot group
    AR3217, whose magnetic field had a beta-gamma-delta configuration,
    in which large flares are often observed, up to X-class flares
    accompanied by CMEs. This is what we saw at 1548 UTC, while extreme
    UV radiation ionized the upper part of the Earth's atmosphere.
    Direct result was the Dellinger effect, which disrupted shortwave communications over all of South America.

    "But this particular eruption did not create a CME. Another
    explosion did. Five hours before the X eruption, a magnetic filament
    appeared in the northern hemisphere of the Sun, which spewed a CME
    into space. Thereafter we were expecting an Earth impact on
    Valentine's Day, February 14. This was a fairly accurate prediction
    because the Earth's intervention occurred just one day later, on
    February 15. It was not a direct hit, only a weak G1 class
    geomagnetic storm developed.

    "On February 15 a magnetic filament eruption near the solar equator
    and another CME heading towards Earth was observed. We can expect an
    arrival on February 17-18, again as a weak G1 class geomagnetic
    storm, perhaps intensifying to a mild G2 class storm on February 18.
    Further we can expect to see more M-class solar flares in the next
    few days. Also, an X-class flare is not out of the question. In
    addition, the AR3226 sunspot group with an unstable magnetic field,
    is directly facing the Earth."

    Impossible but dramatic solar image:

    https://bit.ly/3Ib3eMp

    Spaceweather.com warns:

    "GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: Photographers, warm up your cameras. A CME
    is heading for Earth, and it could spark an unusually good display
    of Northern Lights when it arrives on Feb. 17-18. NOAA forecasters
    say that moderate G2-class geomagnetic storms are possible. During
    such storms, auroras have been seen in the USA as far south as,
    e.g., New York and Idaho."

    From the Western Washington DX Club email list:

    WT8P posted at 1855 UTC on February 16:

    "6M FT8 open to central and SA At 1845 UTC, LU9AEA (Argentina) and
    TG9AJR (Guatemala) on FT8, 50.313 MHz."

    W7YED posted at 1939 UTC, February 16:

    "I was able to pick up 5 new ones on 6m in the space of about 20
    minutes. Nice opening!

    "TI, CX, CE, LU, TG were all between +3 and -18."

    A story about "vicious solar storms":

    https://bit.ly/3S8g7uV

    Aurora on Valentine's Day:

    https://bit.ly/3YUvsSb

    A video last week from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/Igfp_EK73Xk

    This weekend is the CW portion of the ARRL International DX Contest.
    For details see: https://www.arrl.org/arrl-dx .

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for February 9 through 15, 2023 were 150, 190, 209,
    197, 185, 206, and 140, with a mean of 182.4. 10.7 cm flux was
    214.9, 207.8, 209.5, 199.7, 189.2, 179.7, and 173.7, with a mean of
    196.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 21, 16, 11, 7, 4, 8, and
    29, with a mean of 13.7. Middle latitude A index was 16, 12, 10, 5,
    3, 6, and 23, with a mean of 10.7.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@1:2320/33 to All on Fri Mar 31 22:22:49 2023

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP013
    ARLP013 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP13
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 13 ARLP013
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA March 31, 2023
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP013
    ARLP013 Propagation de K7RA

    Solar activity increased this week. Average daily sunspot number
    rose from 68 to 112.6, and average daily solar flux changed from
    145.6 to 156.1.

    A new sunspot group emerged on March 24, two more on March 26 and
    27, and three on March 29.

    Due to solar wind and a geomagnetic disturbance at the beginning of
    the reporting week, average daily planetary A index increased from
    10.6 to 23.3, while average middle latitude A index went from 8.4 to
    13.7. Many reports of aurora came in this week, some down to lower
    latitudes in North America.

    Predicted solar flux is 135 on March 31, 130 on April 1-6, 132 on
    April 7-8, then 130, 132, 135 and 135 on April 9-12, then 140, 145
    and 148 on April 13-15, then 150, 150, 155, 155 and 158 on April
    16-20, 160 on April 21-23, then 155, 145 and 145 on April 24-26, and
    135 on April 27 through May 1, then 132 on May 2-5, then 130, 132,
    135 and 135 on May 6-9.

    Predicted planetary A index is 18, 16, 12, 10 and 8 on March 31
    through April 4, then 5 on April 5-9, then 15, 12, 8 and 5 on April
    10-13, 8 on April 14-15, then 12, 20, 15 and 5 on April 16-19, then
    20, 15 and 10 on April 20-22, 8 on April 23-24, 5 on April 25-26,
    then 12, 15, 10 and 8 on April 27-30, and 5 on May 1-6, then 15, 12
    and 8 on May 7-9.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - March 30, 2023 from OK1HH.

    "The strong geomagnetic storm on 23-24 March was not expected.
    Moreover, it was classified as a G4, making it the most intense in
    almost 6 years. The source of the solar wind was not identified with
    certainty, but a large coronal hole in the south, near the central
    meridian, could not be missed.

    "As a consequence of the disturbance, the ionosphere first
    experienced a rise in the critical frequencies of the F2 layer on 23
    March, followed by a significant drop on 24-25 March. Their normal
    values started to be registered again only after 26 March.

    "Energetic flares are a reliable indicator of the increase in solar
    activity. On March 29, the seventh X-class flare of the year was
    registered. Yet a total of seven were registered in 2022 and only
    two in 2021.

    "Most of the sunspots are now on the western half of the solar disk.
    As they gradually set, total solar activity will first decrease over
    the next week before rising again."

    Here are articles about solar activity as an existential threat:

    https://bit.ly/3M28RQv

    https://bit.ly/42W7xo4

    https://bit.ly/40Qf6Lc

    Nice sunspot video, before the aurora:

    https://bit.ly/3K2alHX

    AA7FV wrote on March 25:

    "There was a 6-meter opening from Arizona to VK on March 24. I
    received VK7HH in Tasmania at 2028 UTC on WSPR; he was using just
    0.2 watts (200 mW)."

    VK7HH responded:

    "Yes, that WSPR spot was from my remote station running 200 mW from
    a Zacktek WSPR TX into a 1/2 wave vertical antenna. HASL 931m."

    AA7FV wrote:

    "For reference, my 50 MHz antenna is a Cushcraft 1/2-wave vertical,
    the Ringo AR6, with its base at about 10 feet above ground. The
    location here is 870m asl but I'm in the valley, just outside
    Tucson. The receiver is an ancient Icom PCR1000, but with a preamp.
    I monitor 6m 24/7, but rarely hear any signals at all, and when I do
    hear something it's usually from someone else in Arizona."

    On March 25, Jon, N0JK wrote:

    "Worked VP8NO in GD18 today on 6 Meter FT8 at 1905 UTC. de N0JK
    EM28 in Kansas."

    Jon was using a portable 2 element Yagi and running 50 watts.

    Here is an article about a "Hole" in the Sun:

    https://www.space.com/solar-flare-coronal-hole-space-weather

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for March 23 through 29, 2023 were 73, 108, 105,
    125, 128, 114, and 135, with a mean of 112.6. 10.7 cm flux was 151,
    157.5, 160.3, 159.4, 158.2, 158.7, and 147.8, with a mean of 156.1.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 60, 66, 15, 8, 3, 5, and 6, with
    a mean of 23.3. Middle latitude A index was 28, 40, 12, 6, 2, 4, and
    4, with a mean of 13.7.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@1:2320/33 to All on Fri Apr 21 13:52:38 2023

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP016
    ARLP016 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP16
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 16 ARLP016
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA April 21, 2023
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP016
    ARLP016 Propagation de K7RA

    Again this week sunspot numbers and solar flux were higher than the
    week before.

    Average daily sunspot numbers more than doubled, from 70.6 to 146.9,
    and average daily solar flux increased from 141 to 164.5. Both
    figures represent a substantial increase in solar activity.

    Planetary A index averages went from 7.6 to 8.1, while middle
    latitude A index advanced from 6.4 to 7.3.

    Three new sunspot groups emerged on April 13, one more on April 16,
    and another on April 17.

    Predicted solar flux over the next few weeks is 145, 140 and 135 on
    April 21-23, 130 on April 24-25, 125 on April 26-27, 160 on April
    28-29, 165 on April 30, 172 on May 1-3, 170 on May 4, 172 on May
    5-7, 178 on May 8, 182 on May 9-12, then 175, 178 and 170 on May
    13-15, 168 on May 16-17, 175 on May 18, then 172 on May 19-21, then
    168 and 162 on May 22-23, 160 on May 24-26, 165 on May 27, and 172
    on May 28-30.

    Predicted planetary A index is 20, 16, 12 and 8 on April 21-24, 5 on
    April 25-27, 15 on April 28-30, then 12 and 10 on May 1-2, 8 on May
    3-4, 5 on May 5-6, 12 on May 7, 5 on May 8-10, then 8 on May 11-12,
    5 on May 13-18, then 10, 8, 5 and 5 on May 19-22, 15 and 18 on May
    23-24, 15 on May 25-27, then 12 and 10 on May 28-29.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - April 20, 2023 from OK1HH.

    "Of the fifteen sunspot groups observed over the past week, AR3272
    and AR3282 were the source of most of the flares. Both had a
    beta-gamma magnitude configuration. 61 C-class flares and 4 M-class
    flares were observed.

    "The partial halo CMEs on 15 and 16 April were the source of
    particles that reached Earth on 18 April, when the solar wind speed
    increased abruptly at 1308 UTC and a geomagnetic disturbance
    developed.

    "A positive phase of the ionospheric disturbance was recorded on the
    afternoon of 18 April, followed by a negative phase on 19 April.
    This was followed on 20 April with a significant increase in f0F2
    and improved shortwave propagation conditions before noon UTC.

    "The outlook looks promising for the first half of May, when solar
    activity should increase further."

    Dan Handa, W7WA commented on the news last week about the current
    solar cycle reaching a peak earlier than predicted, perhaps by the
    end of this year.

    I told him I hoped it would not peak early, because I wanted to see
    several more years of increasing activity.

    Dan sent a very detailed graph of Solar Cycle 19 from 1954 to 1966,
    and wrote: "I have read, and more than once, a slow rise means a low
    sunspot max. The previous Solar Cycle 24 took five years to reach a
    relatively low maximum. A rapid increase can mean a high sunspot
    maximum. The granddaddy of our lifetime, Solar Cycle 19 peaked in
    three years!"

    I did not know this.

    In a subsequent message, Dan further commented:

    "There was a lot of short term variation in the Solar Cycle 19
    sunspot number, just like we're seeing now. From the graph the
    timing of the Solar Cycle 19 peak can be defined three different
    ways: the daily peak, the smoothed monthly peak or the smoothed
    yearly peak, take your pick."

    Another Solar Cycle 19? Many hams have dreamed of this for the past
    six decades.

    Dale, WB6MMQ reported that the solar images in the ARRL Letter with
    a preview of our Friday bulletin show a blank Sun. I wasn't sure
    what he was talking about, but now I realize this must be a stock
    image (not from me!) used in the Letter.

    I sent Dale links to some recent images from Spaceweather.com:

    https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/20apr23/hmi1898.gif

    https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/19apr23/hmi1898.gif

    https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/18apr23/hmi1898.gif

    https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/17apr23/hmi1898.gif

    I hope this clears up the confusion.

    An odd correlation between an ancient epidemic and solar activity:

    https://bit.ly/3Lsqfxf

    A story about a possible early Solar peak:

    https://www.space.com/sun-solar-maximum-may-arrive-early

    A story about possible M-class solar flares:

    https://bit.ly/3KVc1n1

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for April 13 through 19, 2023 were 154, 153, 151,
    155, 162, 140, and 113, with a mean of 146.9. 10.7 cm flux was
    159.5, 171.3, 175.8, 177.8, 166.6, 153.2, and 147, with a mean of
    164.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 7, 9, 4, 6, 13, and 12,
    with a mean of 8.1. Middle latitude A index was 5, 10, 8, 4, 6, 9,
    and 9, with a mean of 7.3.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.20-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@1:2320/33 to All on Fri Apr 28 12:43:39 2023

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP017
    ARLP017 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP17
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 17 ARLP017
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA April 28, 2023
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP017
    ARLP017 Propagation de K7RA

    At 0134 UTC on April 27, The Australian Space Weather Forecasting
    Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning:

    "An equatorial coronal hole is currently elevating solar wind
    speeds. Combined with the anticipated impact from a recent CME on
    April 27, geomagnetic activity is expected to be at G0-G1 levels
    over April 27-28, with a slight chance of an isolated period of G2."

    Solar and geomagnetic indicators moved in opposite directions this
    week. Average daily sunspot numbers over April 20-26 made a dramatic
    drop from 146.9 to 91.4, and average daily solar flux from 164.5 to
    139.4.

    Average daily planetary A index more than tripled from 8.1 to 26.9,
    while average middle latitude A index more than doubled from 7.3 to
    15.6.

    Solar wind and explosions caused all this grief.

    Spaceweather.com reported that on April 21, a large magnetic
    filament on the Sun exploded, hurling debris toward Earth.

    Later they reported that on April 23 at 1737 UTC a CME hit Earth,
    sparking a severe G4-class geomagnetic storm. Aurora was visible as
    far south as southern New Mexico and Texas.

    The planetary K index went as high as 8 over April 23-24.

    Predicted solar flux over the next month is 135 on April 28-30, 140
    on May 1-2, 135 on May 3-4, 140 on May 5-6, then 145, 150, 155, 160
    and 165 on May 7-11, 170 on May 12-13, then 165, 160, 155, 150, 145
    and 140 on May 14-19, 135 on May 20-21, 130 and 125 on May 22-23,
    120 on May 24-25, then 125, 130 and 135 on May 26-28, 140 on May 29
    through June 2, then 145, 150, 155, 160, and 165 on June 3-7.

    Predicted planetary A index is 25, 16 and 12 on April 28-30, 8 on
    May 1-5, 12 and 10 on May 6-7, 8 on May 8-9, then 5, 5 and 12 on May
    10-12, 5 on May 13-15, 8 on May 16-17, 5 on May 18-22, then 15 and
    18 on May 23-34, and 15 on May 25-27, then 12 and 10 on May 28-29, 8
    on May 30-31, then 5, 5 and 12 on June 1-3, and 5 on June 4-6.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - April 27, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    "The most important event of the last seven days was the solar flare
    on 21 April with a maximum at 1812 UTC (1744 - 1857 UT). It was a
    long duration event (LDE), accompanied by the ejection of a cloud of
    coronal plasma into space, at a location on the Sun where there is a
    high probability of the cloud hitting the Earth. It is therefore not
    surprising that all forecast centres agreed in predicting the
    impending disturbance.

    "The speed of the solar wind jumped up on 23 April at 1703 UTC,
    after which a geomagnetic disturbance began to develop. It was much
    stronger than expected (max K=8 and G4 instead of the expected K=6
    and G1-2). Auroras were observed with two maxima - in Europe on 23
    April mainly between 1900-2100 UTC and in North America on 24 April
    between 0300-0400 UTC.

    "Thereafter, propagation conditions deteriorated significantly,
    especially on 24-25 April, with one interesting variation of the
    evolution: the calming of the geomagnetic field on the morning of 25
    April UTC was followed by a further development of the disturbance
    with an albeit shorter but significant improvement. The return of
    the critical frequencies of the F2 layer and the improvement of
    shortwave propagation conditions toward the mean continued only
    slowly in the following days, as intervals of increased geomagnetic
    activity occurred daily. The lowest f0F2 were observed on the night
    of 23-24 April. The following night was slightly better."

    Rocky Riggs, W6RJK in Truckee, California wrote:

    "I was not very active until recently when I was introduced to POTA.
    The park I frequent the most would typically give me 40-60 contacts
    in a 2 hour period.

    "On Monday, the 24th, I went to the same park, and in 30+ minutes
    had no contacts and couldn't hear anyone either. I later found out
    that the solar storm was causing most of our radio problems. Until
    then, I had never considered much about solar flares, or how the Sun
    influences radio propagation. Now, finally, I'm trying to learn as
    much as I can. The K7RA Solar Update in the ARRL Newsletter is
    FANTASTIC, and will be my source going forward to help me learn and
    understand.

    "Here's my question. Is there a 'real time' place where I can go to
    determine if a particular band has good propagation (I typically use
    20m and 40m)?

    "You know, like before I go out and get all set up and it's a 'goose
    egg.'"

    I replied:

    "I recommend pskreporter.info, and look on the map screen for FT8
    signals from your grid square and where they are heard. You don't
    have to use FT8 to use this.

    "You can also check for the 'country of callsign' option with your
    own or any callsign. When I do this for 10 meters, this week it has
    been showing no propagation from my area, but lots of 10 meter
    propagation in the south and across the east coast.

    "I use FT8 a lot to study propagation."

    Angel Santana, WP3GW in Trujillo Alto, Puerto Rico wrote:

    "Been doing a lot of FT8 these months. More DXpeditions are
    including its operation. Just last week on April 16th at 1939 UTC
    worked VU7W and in WARD April 18th T30UN at 0721 on 40m and 0735 on
    30m, the two ATNOs."

    (I think WARD refers to World Amateur Radio Day, and of course ATNO
    refers to All Time New One, something I did not know until a few
    years ago. -K7RA)

    "But on the 20th, at 0800 UTC, saw stations on 10 meters, normally
    you do not hear them on any mode at that time. Then I began to call
    them and a few from Europe contacted me. Then at about 0845 UTC,
    'poof' they disappeared.

    "These are the things that make me say that it is because of the
    'crazy prop' (la propa loca)."

    Tomas Hood, NW7US has a monthly propagation column in CQ Magazine,
    which is a great resource. In the March issue he writes about the
    promising progress of Solar Cycle 25.

    Another great resource is Chapter 19, the "Propagation of Radio
    Signals" in the 2023 100th edition of the ARRL Handbook. It contains
    the most comprehensive treatment of radio propagation I have ever
    seen and goes on for 38 pages.

    Aurora observed in China:

    https://bit.ly/41KyY3w

    Aurora in Iowa:

    https://bit.ly/3Nlvy2S

    An article explaining aurora:

    https://bit.ly/3n7ROm2

    A Science & Tech article about Sun science:

    https://bit.ly/429Sqq9

    From 2017, a NASA sunspot video:

    https://www.exploratorium.edu/video/nasa-life-sunspot

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to
    tell us which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-Earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for April 20 through 26, 2023 were 97, 114, 87, 86,
    88, 87, and 81, with a mean of 91.4. 10.7 cm flux was 147, 151.2,
    141.2, 135.2, 133.9, 130.7, and 136.5, with a mean of 139.4.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 9, 7, 66, 76, 10, and 15, with
    a mean of 26.9. Middle latitude A index was 5, 8, 6, 32, 39, 7, and
    12, with a mean of 15.6.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.20-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@1:2320/33 to All on Fri May 5 08:56:56 2023

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP018
    ARLP018 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP18
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 18 ARLP018
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA May 5, 2023
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP018
    ARLP018 Propagation de K7RA

    Spaceweather.com posted the following report on May 4:

    "REVERSED-POLARITY SUNSPOT EXPLODES: A rare reversed-polarity
    sunspot exploded today, producing a long-lasting M-class solar flare
    and a CME that might hit Earth. Geomagnetic storms are possible this
    weekend if/when the CME arrives."

    Sunspot activity and solar flux increased over the past reporting
    week, April 27 through May 3.

    Average daily sunspot numbers climbed from 91.4 to 114, while
    average daily solar flux grew from 139.4 to 151.5.

    Average daily planetary A index dropped from 26.9 to 13.6, and
    average daily middle latitude A index declined from 15.6 to 11.9.

    Predicted solar flux over the next month is 162 on May 5-6, 164 on
    May 7, 162 on May 8-9, 164 on May 10-11, 170 on May 12-13, then 165,
    160, 155, 150, 145 and 140 on May 14-19, 135 on May 20-21, then 130
    and 125 on May 22-23, 120 on May 24-25, then 125, 130 and 135 on May
    26-28, 140 on May 29 through June 2, then 145, 150 and 155, 160 and
    165 on June 3-7, 170 on June 8-9, then 165, 160, 155, 150, and 145
    on June 10-14. .

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on May 5, then 12, 8, 5 and 5 on
    May 6-9, 5 on May 10-11, 8 on May 12, 5 on May 13-22, 12 and 20 on
    May 23-24, 15 on May 25-26, 8 and 12 on May 27-28, 10 on May 29-30,
    then 8, 5, 12 and 10 on May 31 through June 3, 5 on June 4-6, 8 on
    June 7-8, and 5 on June 9 through mid-month and beyond.

    On Wednesday, May 3 Spaceweather.com posted, "INTENSIFYING SOLAR
    ACTIVITY: Sunspot complex AR3293-3296 is crackling with strong
    M-class solar flares--six of them today so far."

    It looks like we face continued favorable HF propagation.

    Recently I wrote of my bafflement at 10 meter propagation I observed
    using FT8 and pskreporter.info, in which my signals were only being
    reported in Florida. I now have a better understanding of this.

    On May 1 from 1930-2030 UTC I saw the same thing, with reports from
    2,200-2,700 miles away, which suggests a 500 mile wide skip
    distance. Mexican stations also reported me, over that same distance
    in a 500 mile band. So, this suggests that it isn't just Florida,
    and that the same signal is stretching out into the Gulf of Mexico
    and the Atlantic Ocean, but I don't see it because there are no
    stations there to receive my signal.

    Later I saw multi-hop reports from ZL4KYH at 7,246 miles, 5W1SA at
    5,230 miles, LU8EX at 6,893 miles and LU4FTA at 6,750 miles.

    Jon N0JK wrote on April 29:

    "I was able to work LU9DO, LU8EX and PY2XB that afternoon. The South
    American signals popped up on what was otherwise a dead band. Later
    some station in Florida came in. I was running 50 watts and a 3
    element Yagi portable in EM28, northeast Kansas. May 1 - D2UY worked
    stations in Florida and W3LPL in Maryland on was likely Es -- TEP.

    "There will likely be more of these Es -- TEP openings in early
    May."

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere May 05-11, 2023 from OK1HH:

    "While long-term forecasters are beginning to come to terms with the possibility that the growth in solar activity could slow this year
    and the current 25th cycle may not be one of the high ones, solar
    activity has begun to increase. Already last week, sunspot group
    AR3288 in the southwest with an unstable delta class magnetic field
    was the source of an M7 class solar flare on May 1 at 1309 UTC. But
    another M7 class eruption occurred on May 3 in the newly emerged
    AR3293 in the northeastern part of the solar disk.

    "Interestingly, a new group of spots, AR3296 in the northwest,
    violates Hale's Law, as it has the opposite magnetic polarity that
    is appropriate in the current 11-year cycle (polarity should be
    negative on the left and positive on the right).

    "The solar wind speed and Earth's magnetic field activity have
    finally begun to decrease after a long active period, and the
    conditions for shortwave propagation have finally improved, although
    not to the extent we had hoped."

    A story from Sky & Telescope about the Sun:

    https://bit.ly/3NGlMbp

    Two stories about massive solar flares, one from about 400 years
    ago:

    https://bit.ly/427oI5w

    https://bit.ly/3ASEfu1

    Some nonsense about flares:

    https://bit.ly/3NGD5t3

    More Aurora in our future:

    https://bit.ly/3AZxDKl

    A story about Radio Blackout:

    https://bit.ly/41bVL74

    More about Aurora Australis:

    https://ab.co/44qDbet

    This weekend is the 10-10 CW QSO Party, on 10 meters of course:

    https://www.ten-ten.org/activity/2013-07-22-20-26-48/qso-party-rules

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for April 27 through May 3, 2023 were 136, 111, 82,
    105, 87, 134, and 143, with a mean of 114. 10.7 cm flux was 140.8,
    149.8, 155.8, 153.5, 147.9, 156.8, and 156.2, with a mean of 151.5.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 23, 19, 20, 10, 10, 9, and 4,
    with a mean of 13.6. Middle latitude A index was 20, 16, 18, 8, 8,
    9, and 4, with a mean of 11.9.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.20-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@1:2320/33 to All on Fri May 12 18:27:05 2023

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP019
    ARLP019 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP19
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 19 ARLP019
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA May 12, 2023
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP019
    ARLP019 Propagation de K7RA

    We saw a modest increase in solar activity in this reporting week,
    May 4-10.

    Average daily sunspot numbers nudged up from 114 to 119.3, and
    average daily solar flux from 151.5 to 167.1

    Average daily planetary A index changed from 13.6 to 15.1, and
    average middle latitude A index remained the same, 11.9.

    Predicted solar flux is 160 on May 12-13, then 155, 150 and 150 on
    May 14-16, 145 on May 17-18, 155 on May 19-21, 150 on May 22, 145 on
    May 23-25, then 140 and 145 on May 26-27, 155 on May 29-30, 160 on
    May 31 through June 1, 155 on June 2-3, 160 on June 4-7, then 165,
    160, 150, 145 and 150 on June 8-12, and 155 on June 13-17.

    Predicted planetary A index is 30, 12 and 8 on May 12-14, 5 on May
    15-22, then 12 and 20 on May 23-24, 15 on May 25-26, 10 on May
    27-28, 8 on May 29, 5 on May 30 through June 1, then 16, 12, 16 and
    12 on June 2-5, 8 on June 6-8, and 5 on June 9- 18, then 12 and 20
    on June 19-20.

    Stormy space weather:

    https://www.space.com/sun-reverse-sunspot-auroras-supercharge

    BBC on viewing aurora:

    https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/northern-lights-may-2023-backward-sunspot/

    More:

    https://bit.ly/44Rruxk

    Jon, N0JK wrote on May 9:

    "Good 6 Meter Es, TEP May 7 FT8 from northeast Kansas.

    I worked CX2AQ and LU5FF from home with an attic dipole on FT8. This
    around 2115 UTC. Not strong, but solid contacts. I then set up
    portable.

    Worked CE2SV and CE3SX. CE3SX called me, also FT8. Had difficulty
    keeping yagi up due to gusty winds. On ON4KST Dale, CE2SV noted:

    00:11:46 N0JK Jon, A struggle on my side, wind blew antenna down
    several times and broke director. Duct tape to the rescue.

    00:11:07 N0JK Jon (CE2SV) Dale - Thank you for the contact.

    22:42:46 CE2SV Dale (N0JK) Finally Jon ... TU

    Gary, N0KQY observes there is a 'consistent time frame' for Es --
    TEP to South America from the Midwest. Best seems to be 2000-0000
    UTC."

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere May 12-18, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    "The more vivid and complex solar activity is, the less predictable
    it is. The same is valid for its effects in the Earth's
    magnetosphere and ionosphere.

    This was particularly true of the solar flares of May 4 and 5, and
    also of the G2 class geomagnetic storm with auroras. The CMEs
    overlapping each other were difficult to separate.

    Another CME that struck the Earth on May 7 (1544 UTC) was expected
    but, contrary to predictions, did not cause a significant storm.
    Another Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) hit the Earth on May 9 at 2310
    UTC.

    Shortly before, AR3296 (with reversed magnetic polarity and thus
    violating Hale's law) released a double solar flare.

    The consequence was the Dellinger effect (a shortwave fade) up to 25
    MHz from 1900-2100 UTC. Another CME followed with a velocity of over
    1,000 km/s (2.24 million mph). Shock waves at its leading edge
    accelerated protons to nearly the speed of light, making them
    'relativistic particles', for which time passes more slowly. They
    can reach the Earth and affect the ionosphere.

    These lines are written on the afternoon of 11 May UTC, when the
    particles from the eruption of 9 May with a maximum at 1858 UTC are
    expected to arrive.

    Large AR3296 and AR3297 will set behind the northwestern edge of the
    solar disc in a few days. In the meantime, AR3301 and AR3302 emerged
    in the northeast.

    Helioseismological observations indicate another large sunspot group
    will follow them out. Therefore, the current variable nature of the
    evolution with numerous disturbances will continue."

    Five days ago from Dr. Tamitha Skov:

    https://youtu.be/E1lBqqWEa5Q

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for May 4 through 10, 2023 were 139, 90, 99, 99,
    103, 151, and 154, with a mean of 119.3. 10.7 cm flux was 162,
    161.9, 151.8, 157.2, 171.9, 194.7, and 170.1, with a mean of 167.1.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 5, 30, 9, 16, 14, and 26, with
    a mean of 15.1. Middle latitude A index was 7, 4, 21, 8, 13, 11, and
    19, with a mean of 11.9.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.20-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@1:2320/33 to All on Fri May 19 14:20:18 2023

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP020
    ARLP020 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP20
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 20 ARLP020
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA May 19, 2023
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP020
    ARLP020 Propagation de K7RA

    This reporting week, May 11-17, average daily sunspot number was
    nearly the same as last week, 118.6 compared to 119.3, only
    marginally lower.

    But average daily solar flux dropped from 167.8 to 143.2.

    Geomagnetic indicators were quieter, both planetary and middle
    latitude A index at 9.6. Last week the two numbers were 15.1 and
    11.9, respectively.

    What is the outlook for the next few weeks?

    10.7 cm solar flux is forecast to have a peak of 165 on June 8.

    The predicted numbers are 145 on May 19, 140 on May 20-21, 135 on
    May 22-24, 140 on May 25-26, 145 on May 27, 155 on May 28-30, 160 on
    May 31 and June 1, 155 on June 2-3, 160 on June 4-7, then 165, 160,
    150, 145, and 150 on June 8-12, then 155 on June 13-17, 150 on June
    18, 145 on June 19-21, 140 and 145 on June 22-23, and 155 on June
    24-26 then 160 on June 27-28.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5, 8, 12, 15 and 5 on May 19-23, 12
    on May 24-25, 15 on May 26, 10 on May 27-28, 8 on May 29, 5 on May
    30 through June 1, then 16, 12, 16 and 12 on June 2-5, 8 on June
    6-8, then 5 on June 9-18, 12 and 20 on June 19-20, 15 on June 21-22,
    10 on June 23-24, 8 on June 25, and 5 on June 26-28.

    These numbers are updated daily here:

    https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/45-day-ap-forecast.txt

    Thanks to reader David Moore for this:

    "How 1,000 undergraduates helped solve an enduring mystery about the
    Sun:

    "https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2023/05/230509122026.htm

    "For three years at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, a group of
    students spent an estimated 56,000 hours analyzing the behavior of
    hundreds of solar flares. Their results could help astrophysicists
    understand how the Sun's corona reaches temperatures of millions of
    degrees Fahrenheit."

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - May 18, 2023, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    "On May 12, we expected a CME impact from the flare on the evening
    of May 9. It was indeed registered - at 0635 UTC the geomagnetic
    storm began. However, it was weaker than expected, of G1 class.

    "On 13 May at 1915 UTC, an unexpected CME impact followed for a
    change, which again triggered another G1 class geomagnetic storm.

    "On 16 May, we expected another smaller CME. The particle cloud has
    been slowly approaching Earth since the magnetic filament eruption
    in the southern hemisphere of the Sun on 12 May.

    "The next solar flare on May 16, with a maximum at 1643 UTC, was
    M9.6 class. It came from a sunspot group still hiding behind the
    southeastern limb of the Sun. In fact, it may have been an X flare,
    partially obscured by the solar horizon. Yet it caused the strong
    Dellinger effect (shortwave fade) over North America. After the
    sunspot group came out on the solar disk, we could observe it as AR
    3310. It's about three times wider than Earth, and its magnetic
    configuration promises more flares.

    "Not only was solar flare activity quite high, but the Sun was
    hurling so many CMEs into space that hardly a day went by without
    one hitting Earth. Therefore, the frequency of geomagnetic storms
    was also higher, followed by frequent deterioration of shortwave
    propagation conditions. In summary, the 25th solar cycle continues
    to evolve nicely."

    Frank, VO1HP sent this from St. Johns, Newfoundland:

    "On May 12 1957-2113 UTC, there was a strong 6M Es opening into mid
    South America. Logged 20 stations using FT8. No CW or SSB heard.
    Stations worked at VO1HP remote station: LU3CQ, CE3SX, 2SV, LI7DUE,
    9AEA, 9DO, 1FAM, 8EX, CX3VB, PP5BK, LU2DPW, CX1VH, PU3AMB, CX6VM,
    LU3FAP, XQ3SK, XQ3MCC, CE3VRT, 3SOC, and LU5FF.

    "Antenna 4el Yagi at 35ft overlooking ocean. K3 + PR6, KPA500
    KAT500. Other VO1s seen: VO1CH, VO1SIX, and VO1AW."

    On April 24, Rocky Riggs, W6RJK in Truckee, California wrote:

    "I was not very active until recently when I was introduced to POTA.
    The park I frequent the most would typically give me 40-60 contacts
    in a 2 hour period.

    "On Monday, April 24th, I went to the same park, and in 30+ minutes
    had no contacts and couldn't hear anyone either. I later found out
    that the solar storm was causing most of our radio problems. Until
    then, I had never considered much about solar flares, or how the Sun
    influences radio propagation. Now, finally, I'm trying to learn as
    much as I can. The K7RA Solar Update in the ARRL Newsletter is
    FANTASTIC and will be my source going forward to help me learn and
    understand.

    "Here's my question. Is there a 'real time' place where I can go to
    determine if a particular band has good propagation (I typically use
    20m and 40m)?

    "You know, like before I go out and get all set up and it's a 'goose
    egg.'"

    As I first reported in Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP017, I told
    him that a very useful tool (to use) is to check real time
    geomagnetic indices with this:

    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index

    Nice quiet conditions show a planetary A index at 1 or 2, unsettled
    conditions at 3, then above 3 conditions are disturbed. The scale is logarithmic, so each point in either direction is important.

    Another approach is to use pskreporter at https://www.pskreporter.info/pskmap.html which is handy if you live
    in a grid square that has many active hams, or a nearby grid that is
    more populated.

    You can check FT8 activity on any band. There is also a "Country of
    Callsign" selection so you can check activity across your nation of
    choice. Recently when I have raised nobody on 10 meter FT8 this
    option showed no activity here in the Pacific Northwest but plenty
    of 10 meter activity in the southeast United States.

    Here is a new video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/xSQYjH6D_YA

    NASA sunspot picture:

    https://bit.ly/458DrPw

    A video of a recent eruption:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rm7M5pqjCgY

    Here are articles about Radio Blackout:

    https://bit.ly/434c5bw

    https://bit.ly/3pWId2e

    https://bit.ly/45hXTxh

    https://bit.ly/3MEkCwa

    NASA warning of a Solar Storm threat:

    https://bit.ly/3pSK4p2

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for May 11 through 17, 2023 were 152, 134, 120, 109,
    103, 106, and 106, with a mean of 118.6. 10.7 cm flux was 163.4,
    149.1, 143.8, 139.7, 134.5, 134.3, and 137.9, with a mean of 143.2.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 19, 13, 8, 6, 8, and 4, with a
    mean of 9.6. Middle latitude A index was 10, 15, 12, 9, 6, 10, and
    5, with a mean of 9.6.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.20-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@1:2320/33 to All on Fri May 26 20:19:00 2023

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP021
    ARLP021 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP21
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 21 ARLP021
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA May 26, 2023
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP021
    ARLP021 Propagation de K7RA

    Both average daily sunspot numbers and solar flux increased this
    week. Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 118.6 to 133.4, while
    average solar flux went from 143.2 to 161.2.

    Geomagnetic indicators were more active. Average daily planetary A
    index went from 9.6 to 17.1, while average middle latitude A index
    rose from 9.6 to 14.4.

    Predicted solar flux is 150 on May 26, 155 on May 27 and 28, then
    150, 145, 140 and 135 on May 29 through June 1, 155 on June 2 to 4,
    then 160, 165, 160, 155, and 150 on June 5 to 9, 145 on June 10 and
    11, 150 on June 12, 155 on June 13 and 14, 160 on June 15, 165 on
    June 16 and 17, then 160, 155 and 150 on June 18 to 20, 155 on June
    21 and 22, then 160, 165 and 160 on June 23 to 25, 155 on June 26
    and 27, 150 on June 28, and 155 on June 29 to July 1, then 160, 165
    and 160 on July 2 to 4.

    Predicted planetary A index is 15, 8, 5, 12 and 10 on May 26 to 30,
    5 on May 31 through June 1, then 16, 8, 10 and 8 on June 2 to 5, 5
    on June 6 to 15, then 12, 10, 5, 18, 22, 15 and 10 on June 16 to 22,
    5 on June 23 to 28, then 16, 8, 10 and 8 on June 29 through July 2,
    and 5 through the first week of July.

    "Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - May 25, 2023

    We've seen another seven days of turbulent developments on the Sun
    and around the Earth. The large, seen even without binoculars
    (e.g., eclipse glasses) visible sunspot group AR3310 in the southern
    hemisphere was the source of the strongest flare on May 16 with an
    X-ray event maximum of M9.6.

    Another group AR3311 in the north, due to its unstable magnetic
    field configuration "beta-gamma-delta", produced almost all the
    other flares. The stronger ones were the cause of Dellinger events
    (SWF = Shortwave fadeout, in the case of M9.6 it was registered in
    the whole shortwave range in the region where the Sun was high).
    Moreover, the eruptions, combined with sporadic E layer, often
    significantly affected the propagation in the lower shortwave bands
    by deep and irregular fadeouts.

    SOHO recorded a rare conjunction on May 21, when a filament near the
    Sun's north pole was ejected as a CME in direction to the Pleiades,
    Seven Sisters star cluster. Coronagraph on SOHO has been operating
    since 1995 and was the first to operate in real time. No one had
    ever seen anything like it before.

    Since May 24, we observed a new and rapidly growing group of spots,
    AR3315, in which we can expect more major solar flares as time goes
    on. So the turbulent evolution with changing and often worsening
    shortwave propagation conditions continues.

    F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH"

    K7EG wrote:

    "I have been in the DX hobby since 1950 and seem to see an
    increasing, alarming recent trend in solar and geomagnetic activity
    impacting trends in radio disturbances. Tell me I am wrong and it's
    just a 'blip' but solar activity seems beyond the norm and
    worsening."

    I replied that with greater solar activity we should expect more
    flares, solar wind, and disturbances. I think the disturbances are
    normal and expected with the rising solar cycle.

    When I suspect conditions are disturbed, this is where I check to
    see what is happening in real time:

    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index

    Beautiful aurora: https://tinyurl.com/2zxdmpu6

    Sunspot images: https://tinyurl.com/muaakxn9

    https://www.popsci.com/science/sun-images-powerful-solar-telescope/

    https://bit.ly/3MCqAwm

    Thanks to NO6ED for this story about an undersea volcano disrupting
    the ionosphere. https://bit.ly/428OAwM

    This weekend is the CQ World Wide WPX CW Contest. https://www.cqwpx.com/rules.htm

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for May 18 through 24, 2023 were 121, 155, 138, 140,
    97, 130, and 153, with a mean of 133.4. 10.7 cm flux was 150.6,
    164.6, 169.6, 163.4, 161.5, 154.9, and 164.1, with a mean of 161.2.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 9, 35, 28, 21, 12, and 12,
    with a mean of 17.1. Middle latitude A index was 8, 10, 26, 19, 17,
    11, and 10, with a mean of 14.4.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.20-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@1:2320/33 to All on Fri Jun 2 16:03:48 2023

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP022
    ARLP022 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP22
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 22 ARLP022
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA June 2, 2023
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP022
    ARLP022 Propagation de K7RA

    Average daily solar flux values dropped over the past week, but
    sunspot numbers were nearly the same, comparing May 25 to 31 to the
    previous week.

    Average daily solar flux declined from 161.2 to 155.3. Geomagnetic
    indicators were quieter, with average daily planetary A index
    declining from 17.1 to 7.3, and middle latitude numbers from 14.4 to
    7.9.

    Predicted solar flux is 160 on June 2, 155 on June 3-4, 150 on June
    5-8, 130 on June 9-11, then 135, 140, 143, 145, and 150 on June
    12-16, 155 on June 17-20, 150 on June 21-25, then 145, 140 and 135
    on June 26-28 and 130 on June 29 to July 8.

    Predicted planetary A index is 15, 12, 10 and 8 on June 2-5, 5 on
    June 6-17, then 22, 15, 12 and 10 on June 18-21, 5 on June 22-24, 12
    and 10 on June 25-26, then 5 on June 27-28, then 15, 12, 15, 10 and
    8 on June 29 through July 3, then 5 on July 4 through the middle of
    the month.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - June 1, 2023 from OK1HH.

    "The Sun still surprises us, it has been in the habit for billions
    of years, but we only observe it for a few hundred years. So, we
    have a right to be surprised by what it is doing and what we can
    observe with instruments on satellites and powerful solar telescopes
    on Earth, including the largest four-metre one on the island of Maui
    in Hawaii, which can see the very fine structures of sunspot nuclei.

    "What's more, we're seeing spots on the far side of the Sun that are
    so big, they affect the vibration of the whole Sun. But we can only
    see their structure and predict possible flares after they appear on
    the eastern limb of the solar disk, which was not at all the case
    with the current most active AR3315, which did not appear there. It
    emerged later, thereafter began to grow rapidly.

    "Conversely, the source of the next big flare was hidden behind the southeastern limb, and we only saw the prominence above it.

    "Meanwhile, the larger groups of sunspots have mostly moved to the
    western half of the solar disk. A large coronal hole in the southern
    hemisphere now crosses the central meridian. This increases the
    likelihood of geomagnetic disturbances starting on June 2."

    Mike, AK7ML wrote:

    "I recall in a movie about Pearl Harbor that they could not reach
    Hawaii from stateside on HF and then they sent the message by cable
    telegraph in routine status, so Pearl was not informed of the attack
    in time.

    "For years I have been able to work Australia in the morning and now
    it is Indonesia that is workable instead!"

    A story about a big sunspot:

    https://www.fox9.com/news/giant-sunspot-ar3310-visible-earth

    I've added information from this resource to the text appearing at
    the bottom of every propagation forecast bulletin (this resource
    comes from September 2002 QST):

    https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf

    I was sad to learn that old friend Chip Margelli, K7JA became a
    Silent Key on May 25. Chip was from the Seattle area, and first came
    to my attention when he became proficient in the Japanese language
    during high school, then specialized in running JA stations at the
    old Rush Drake, W7RM contest station on Foulweather Bluff in Puget
    Sound. At one time he may have been the most famous American ham in
    Japan, or so I heard at the time.

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for May 25 through 31, 2023 were 121, 127, 125, 119,
    153, 144, and 147, with a mean of 133.7. 10.7 cm flux was 152.1,
    149, 156.9, 151.3, 154.4, 162, and 161.4, with a mean of 155.3.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 6, 4, 11, 4, 5, and 10, with
    a mean of 7.3. Middle latitude A index was 11, 6, 5, 11, 5, 6, and
    11, with a mean of 7.9.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.20-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@1:2320/33 to All on Fri Jun 9 14:14:41 2023

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP023
    ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP23
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 23 ARLP023
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA June 9, 2023
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP023
    ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA

    Solar activity was up this week, with the average daily sunspot
    number increasing from 133.7 to 139, and average daily solar flux
    from 155.3 to 166.8.

    Average daily planetary A index stayed the same at 7.3, and average
    middle latitude A index went from 7.9 to 8.6.

    Predicted solar flux doesn't show any improvement, with peaks at 170
    on June 23-25 and July 20-21.

    The forecast shows solar flux at 168, 163, 157, 160, 157, 153, 160
    and 150 on June 9-16, 155 on June 17-20, then 160 and 165 on June
    21-22, 170 on June 23-25, then 168, 165 and 162 on June 26-28, 160
    on June 29 through July 4, then 155, 150 and 145 on July 5-7, then
    140, 135, 140, 143, 145 and 150 on July 8-13, and 155 on July 14-17.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8, 5, 10 and 8 on June 9-12, 5 on
    June 13-17, then 22, 15, 12 and 10 on June 18-21, 5 on June 22-26,
    then 10, 12, 5 and 5 on June 27-30, then 8, 12 and 8 on July 1-3,
    and 5 on July 4-7, then 10, 12 and 8 on July 8-10, and 5 on July
    11-14, then 22. 15. 12 and 10 on July 15-18.

    In some previous bulletins I was reporting 10 meter propagation
    observed with FT8 only into Florida from my QTH in Seattle, and also
    into Mexico at a similar distance.

    Recently on 10 meters I am seeing propagation into VK/ZL, and in
    North America mostly into Southern California, Nevada, Utah and
    Arizona. Some seasonal variation, I suppose.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere - June 8, 2023 from OK1HH:

    "In the last seven days, solar activity has remained at a slightly
    elevated level, with daily C-class flares and a few M-class flares.
    This, together with the decrease in geomagnetic activity, has
    resulted in a gradual increase in the daily maximum of the highest
    usable frequencies of the F2 ionospheric layer. At the same time,
    however, the attenuation in the lower ionospheric layers grew, which
    manifested as earlier morning closures and later evening openings of
    the longer shortwave bands.

    "Particle clouds from CMEs during solar flares mostly did not reach
    Earth - with one exception: on 7 June at 2224 UTC, the solar wind
    speed jumped from 340 to 380 km/s. For a short time, the Earth's
    magnetic field activity increased, usually only to K=3.

    "The situation was further complicated by the sporadic-E layer,
    whose season is approaching its peak.

    "Inhomogeneities (non-uniformities) in the sporadic-E layer appeared
    quite frequently and extended reflections were observed in the
    ionograms.

    "As a consequence, the scattering of electromagnetic waves was as
    well manifested as attenuation. We are talking about the ionosphere
    of the northern hemisphere of the Earth. Here we will wait for the
    improvement when Summer ends there - which fortunately will be much
    earlier than Summer ends in the troposphere."

    While searching for something else, I ran across this article from
    the RSGB:

    http://bit.ly/45TjWuA

    Mike, W9NY wrote:

    "Having lived through multiple sunspot cycles since I was first
    licensed in 1955, I cannot believe that 10 meters is nearly dead,
    and 15 meters is minimally open. Nothing on 6 meters either.

    "I discussed this with my cousin who is an astrophysicist at Oxford
    who basically said, 'there are a lot of factors.' I'm just wondering
    what our ham radio gurus think. I would have expected phenomenal
    propagation but there is very little. Might this be related to
    atomic/chemical changes in the Earth's ionosphere?"

    I offered the WA4TTK Solar Data Plotting Utility as a record of
    sunspot and solar flux data going back to 1989.

    It can be updated weekly with a plain text file of the latest
    propagation bulletin.

    The data file can then be imported to any spreadsheet program for
    analysis and custom graphing.

    http://www.craigcentral.com/sol.asp

    A new video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

    https://youtu.be/-ElKuld9xW8

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for June 1 through 7, 2023 were 143, 147, 112, 110,
    151, 133, and 177, with a mean of 139. 10.7 cm flux was 163.9,
    162.3, 164.6, 168.3, 169.2, 171.8, and 167.2, with a mean of 166.8.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 13, 5, 5, 11, 5, 7, and 5, with a
    mean of 7.3. Middle latitude A index was 14, 8, 5, 11, 6, 10, and 6,
    with a mean of 8.6.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.20-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@1:2320/33 to All on Fri Jun 16 09:48:02 2023

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP024
    ARLP024 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP24
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 24 ARLP024
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA June 16, 2023
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP024
    ARLP024 Propagation de K7RA

    At 2256 UTC on June 16 the Australian Space Weather Forecast Centre
    issued a geomagnetic warning: "The solar wind speed on UT day 15-Jun
    has increased as the Earth entered a coronal hole wind stream after
    15/0545UT. Increased geomagnetic activity is expected for 16-Jun
    with isolated periods of G1-Minor level activity."

    Earlier in the day I checked the NOAA planetary K index page, and it
    showed a jump from K index of about 1.8 at 1200 UTC to about 4.1 at
    1500 and again at 1800 UTC, then about 4.5 at 2100 UTC and 5.5 at
    0000 UTC on June 16. At 0300 UTC it was down a bit to 5.

    See, https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index .

    Solar activity declined this week, with average daily sunspot
    numbers dropping from 139 to 122, while average daily solar flux
    decreased from 166.8 to 154.8. This compares the current reporting
    week of June 8-14 against the previous seven days.

    Average daily planetary A index decreased from 7.3 to 5.7, and
    average daily middle latitude A index from 8.6 to 6.7.

    On June 14 Spaceweather.com reported two new sunspot groups emerging
    across the Sun's southeastern horizon.

    Forecasters Cundiff and Trost of the U.S. Air Force 557th Weather
    Wing predict solar flux at 155 on June 16-17, 160 on June 18-19,
    then 155, 160 and 165 on June 20-22, 170 on June 23-25, then 168,
    165 and 162 on June 26-28, 160 on June 29 through July 4, 165 on
    July 5, 170 on July 6-8, then 155, 157, 153 and 160 on July 9-12,
    150 on July 13-14, 155 on July 15-17, then 160 and 165 on July
    18-19, and 170 on July 20-22.

    Predicted planetary A index is 18, 12 and 8 on June 16-18, 5 on June
    19-20, 8 on June 21-22, 5 on June 23-26, 12 on June 27-28, 5 on June
    29-30, then 12 and 8 on July 1-2, 5 on July 3-7, 12 on July 8-10,
    then 5, 5, and 12 on July 11-13, and 10 on July 14-15, and 5 on July
    16-23.

    These predictions look great for ARRL Field Day, which is June
    24-25. Why? Solar flux peaks at 170 on June 23-25, and the predicted
    planetary A index is a nice quiet 5 on June 22-26. Next week we will
    present an updated forecast just prior to Field Day weekend.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere June 16 - June 22, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

    "The first half of June was quieter than May, both on the Sun and in
    the Earth's magnetosphere and ionosphere.

    "However, helioseismic maps of the far side of the Sun showed a
    number of large active regions, probably sunspots. We therefore
    expected an increase in activity. But that's not likely to happen
    until a week from now.

    "Even so, there were some rather unexpected eruptions of moderate
    magnitude during the local midday, which triggered a SWF (Shortwave
    Fading) that could have broken the QSO in the longer half of the
    shortwave band.

    "Meanwhile, we observed a coronal hole in the solar equator region
    that crossed the central meridian on June 12.

    "Associated with it is the co-rotating interaction region (CIR),
    which are the transition zones between the slow and fast solar wind
    streams. Since the accumulation of solar plasma in the solar wind
    results in structures that are similar to the arrival of a CME, we
    expected a geomagnetic storm on the evening of 15 June UTC. The
    estimate was quite accurate - the disturbance began at 1500 UTC.

    "We can expect the geomagnetic field to be active for a few more
    days, including smaller storms."

    K6LMN wrote:

    "It was great on 6m last weekend. I was only on SSB on 6m, but I
    understand it was open all over on FT8. I believe the openings were
    caused by summer E-skip, not F2. I worked many, many stations in
    your grid square. Roger K6LMN in DM04sb Los Angeles."

    He sent this to N0JK:

    "We on the West Coast were finally treated to some decent E-skip on
    6 meters SSB and CW (do not know about FT8). The June VHF Contest
    was just great Saturday and Sunday afternoons into early evening,
    Pacific Daylight time. Before this contest the band out here has
    been fairly quiet.

    "So briefly, I was K6LMN/Limited Rover in DM03 DM04 all around LA.
    I had a tight schedule with many social engagements plus two
    funerals to attend. I could not get too serious with heavy artillery
    or going to 5,000+ ft. mountaintops. For 6m I simply used my Larsen
    5 ft. magmount on the car roof. The rig was my old IC-706IIG with
    only 90 watts SSB. I was also on 2m, 1-1/4m, and 70 cm.

    "Most DX contacts were on both days up to Oregon, Washington, Idaho,
    Montana, BC, and Alberta. But the surprise was Sunday early evening.
    Best 2 way DX was N9XG in EN60 (Indiana) and K9CT in EN50 (Illinois)
    with 1 hour to go before contest close. They were like 5 by 5 on
    peaks on SSB. I am sure all this big DX was double hop summer
    E-skip.

    "A surprise was VA6AN way up in Canada popping in/out on SSB with
    peaks up to 5 by 5 Sunday eve about 6:30 pm local time. However, the
    QRM was horrible (my whip is omnidirectional) so he did not work me.

    "I worked K7YO up in CN85 (his alternate QTH) and he said he was
    getting into Florida on SSB or CW or FT8 on 6M. Maybe triple hop
    E-skip?

    "I am unhappy that us West Coasters are not getting any F2 so far on
    6m in Solar Cycle 25. I am 85 years old, licensed in 1955 and was
    lucky to enjoy the all-time best F2 openings on 10m and 6m (AM) back
    in the Golden Days in 1956-1958 in Solar Cycle 19. Incredible!"

    N0JK sent a note on June 12 that he worked IK5YJY on 6 meter FT8. He
    also wrote: "6M Es all weekend and 2M Es Sunday eve for the ARRL VHF
    contest. By the way, you had a station (W9NY) comment about poor
    conditions on 6M in last week's bulletin. Last weekend was awesome.
    I made 3 JA contacts with 10w and a 3 el yagi from KS.

    "Today A71VV (Qatar) was in to Northeast KS around 1400z."

    Check out the images on the A71VV page on QRZ.com.

    Scotty, W7PSK sent a note on June 12 listing countries worked on 6
    meter FT8: Balearic Islands, France, Spain, England and Canada.

    An image of the International Space Station over a sunspot:

    https://bit.ly/3NgsByW

    A video too:

    https://bit.ly/43Em3B1

    A study of the Sun's coldest region:

    https://bit.ly/3X6ErQu

    More sunspots.

    https://bit.ly/3Nt5Ys6

    Another breathless warning from South Asia about flares:

    https://bit.ly/42Rt2FG

    This weekend is the 64th annual CW weekend of the All Asian DX
    Contest. See the JARL web site for rules:

    https://bit.ly/43GPrXq

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins

    Sunspot numbers for June 8 through 14, 2023 were 149, 152, 116, 116,
    116, 98, and 107, with a mean of 122. 10.7 cm flux was 168.5, 164.3,
    161.2, 153.8, 146.1, 146.3, and 143.5, with a mean of 154.8.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 4, 5, 9, 6, 6, and 5, with a
    mean of 5.7. Middle latitude A index was 6, 6, 4, 10, 8, 8, and 5,
    with a mean of 6.7.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.20-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@1:2320/33 to All on Fri Jun 23 11:20:44 2023

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP025
    ARLP025 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP25
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 25 ARLP025
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA June 23, 2023
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP025
    ARLP025 Propagation de K7RA

    Sunspot numbers and solar flux rose this week. There were two new
    sunspot groups on June 15, another on June 17 and one more on June
    18, three more on June 19, two more on June 20 and another on June
    21.

    Average daily sunspot number increased from 122 to 143, and average
    daily solar flux rose from 154.8 to 165.4.

    Average daily planetary A index jumped from 5.7 to 15.4, while the
    middle latitude numbers increased from 6.7 to 13.1.

    Predicted solar flux is 180 on June 23-24, 185 on June 25-27, 180 on
    June 28, 175 on June 29 through July 1, 180 on July 2-3, 175 on July
    4-5, 170 on July 6-10, then 165 on July 11, 160 on July 12-13, 165
    on July 14-15, 160 and 155 on July 16-17, 160 on July 18-19, 165 on
    July 20-24, 170 on July 25, 175 on July 26-28, and 180 on July
    29-30.

    Predicted planetary A index is 14, 10 and 8 on June 23-25, then 5,
    5, and 12 on June 26-28, then 5, 5, and 12 again on June 29 through
    July 1, 8 on July 2, 5 on July 3-7, 12 on July 8, 5 on July 9-11,
    then a dramatic increase to 20 and 30 on July 12-13, 8 on July
    14-15, and 12 on July 16-17, 10 on July 18, 5 on July 19-23, 12 on
    July 24-25, 5 on July 26-27, 12 and 8 on July 28-29, and 5 on July
    30 through August 3.

    These predictions are from forecasters Liming and Dethlefsen of the
    US Air Force 557th Weather Wing at Offutt AFB.

    See https://bit.ly/3qRNJnr

    So, what does this forecast show for ARRL Field Day, which is this
    weekend?

    Geomagnetic numbers are a bit more unsettled than what was shown in
    last week's bulletin, which had an A index of 5 for Friday through
    Sunday. The latest shows 14, 10 and 8. Predicted solar flux looks
    excellent, at 180, 180 and 185.

    Of course, Field Day does not begin until Saturday, but here we also
    include data for the day prior.

    X1.1 solar flare:

    https://bit.ly/3CI0OCA

    Another report from South Asia regarding solar flares as some sort
    of existential threat. Don't worry. Nothing terrifying about what
    they report, but there is a nice description of what the SOHO
    observatory does.

    https://bit.ly/444VhSk

    https://soho.nascom.nasa.gov

    Reader David Moore shared this video:

    https://www.space.com/earth-sunlight-dance-solstice-video

    Don't know why, but no weekly report from OK1HH this time around.

    On Thursday I attended an online event, the "Space Weather
    Enterprise Forum," thanks to a tip from K6PFA.

    Most of the sessions concerned threats from solar flares, but there
    was great commentary from Bill Murtaugh of NOAA's Space Weather
    Prediction Center.

    He noted that the current solar cycle should peak in summer 2024
    instead of 2025 and will peak much stronger than the consensus
    forecast from earlier in the cycle. He also noted that increased
    flare activity always occurs in the years following a sunspot cycle
    peak.

    John Dudley, Managing Director of Flight Operations at American
    Airlines gave an interesting presentation about how space weather
    affects routing of international flights.

    He mentioned their expert on space weather at the airline, and I
    looked him up. Yes, a ham, KC1ENP. Could not find an email address
    for him, so I sent a QSL card to make contact.

    Thanks to https://spaceweather.com/ for this fascinating article about
    setting up a personal space weather station. It is under the
    heading, "A New Way To Detect Solar Flares":

    https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/15/1403/2023/

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins

    Sunspot numbers for June 15 through 21, 2023 were 112, 120, 110,
    133, 181, 155, and 190, with a mean of 143. 10.7 cm flux was 153.1,
    157.2, 158.1, 164.1, 168.8, 180.1, and 176.4, with a mean of 165.4.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 24, 38, 8, 10, 10, 10, and 8,
    with a mean of 15.4. Middle latitude A index was 17, 24, 8, 12, 9,
    13, and 9, with a mean of 13.1.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.20-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@1:2320/33 to All on Fri Jun 30 14:24:44 2023

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP026
    ARLP026 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP26
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 26 ARLP026
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA June 30, 2023
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP026
    ARLP026 Propagation de K7RA

    Space Weather News sent this alert on June 29:

    "BIG SUNSPOT ALERT: One of the biggest sunspots in years is directly
    facing Earth. AR3354 is 10 times wider than Earth and about 1/3rd
    the size of the historical Carrington sunspot. It's so big,
    observers in Europe and North America are seeing it naked eye
    through the smoke of Canadian wildfires. Earth-directed flares are
    likely in the days ahead."

    See https://spaceweather.com/ for continuing coverage.

    Conditions were favorable over the Field Day weekend, with the
    exception of a brief period when the planetary K index rose to 5 on
    Saturday night. This is mentioned in the commentary by OK1HH which
    follows.

    There were five new sunspot groups on June 23, two more on June 24,
    another on June 26 and another on June 27.

    Average daily sunspot numbers were up, and solar flux was down.

    Average daily sunspot number rose from 143 to 170, and average daily
    solar flux declined slightly from 165.4 to 160.3.

    This is unexpected, because we normally see these values track
    together.

    Predicted solar flux is 150 on June 30 through July 5, 155 on July
    6, 135 on July 7-8, then 145, 155, 160, 165 and 170 on July 9-13,
    175 on July 14-18, 170 on July 19-21, then 160, 150, 145, 145, 140
    and 135 on July 22-27, then 130 on July 28 through August 1, 135 on
    August 2-4, then 145, 155, and 165 on August 5-7. Flux values may
    continue to rise to a peak of 175 before mid-August.

    Predicted planetary A index is 8, 15 and 10 on June 30 through July
    2, 5 on July 3-7, 12 and 8 on July 8-9, 5 on July 10-11, then a
    stormy 20 and 30 on July 12-13, 8 on July 14-23, 12 on July 24-25, 8
    on July 26-27, 12 on July 28-29, 8 on July 30, 5 on July 31 through
    August 3, 12 and 8 on August 4-5, 5 on August 6-7, then 20 and 30
    again on August 8-9. Note that recurring stormy conditions are
    predicted at one solar rotation, which is about 27.5 days, following
    the July 12-13 prediction.

    The above predictions are from forecasters Thompson and Kiser at the
    USAF space weather group.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere June 30 to July 06, 2023 from F.K. Janda OK1HH.

    "In the solar X-ray field during June we could observe the most
    significant solar flare so far: X1 in the active region AR3341. It
    happened on June 20 at 1709 UTC near the southeastern limb of the
    solar disk. In the region where the Sun was high, it caused the
    Dellinger Effect, https://bit.ly/3NA61kT .

    "The same sunspot group was also the source of the M4.8 flare two
    days later. It ejected a CME, but not toward Earth.

    "Nevertheless, its passage close to Earth probably caused an
    increase in geomagnetic activity on the evening of 24 June.
    Theoretically, it could also have been a CME from the X1 eruption of
    20 June.

    "On June 26, we were surprised by sunspot group AR3354 just above
    the solar equator and east of the central meridian. It did not exist
    the day prior. Over the next two days its area grew to ten times the
    size of the Earth, making it easily observable by the naked eye.

    "Significantly, its magnetic configuration changed to
    beta-gamma-delta, which is enough energy for powerful solar flares.

    "The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled so far.

    "AR3354 will be pointed directly toward Earth in the next few days,
    so it looks like the next disturbance could begin on July 1. And of
    course, a possible large flare could cause a Dellinger Effect
    throughout the whole HF spectrum."

    Pat, W5THT wrote:

    "I have been an active ham since 1956 and on the Mississippi coast
    since 1971. This year has strengthened my belief in an old
    observation.

    "There is/was a dome of high pressure that moved from over Texas to
    now over me. Before it moved east, I was able to take part in the 6
    meter propagation to Europe.

    "Since it moved over me, the DX Maps page shows a gap in the DX
    propagation from northern Florida to central Louisiana. This is not
    the first time I have seen it happen, but the new generation of TV
    weather persons presented a picture of the dome of high pressure
    that coincided with my propagation observations. Suspicions
    confirmed?

    "Years ago, on 2 meters I noticed that propagation followed weather
    fronts up the east coast. Thanks for reading this and perhaps
    someone younger than me has already done the research."

    Jon Jones, N0JK wrote:

    "Wow -- a surprise opening on 6 meter FT8 to Brazil June 25!

    "A CME impact at 1900 UTC may have boosted the TEP MUF Sunday
    afternoon. That and some help with sporadic-E -- opening to Brazil
    on 6 meters from North America during the summer.

    "Had been out with our dog. Saw WQ0P PSK flags for PY2XB. Turned on
    radio at home with dipole. PY2XB was loud. Really loud. Also copied
    PY5CC. He spotted me as well, but no QSO. PY2XB in for almost half
    an hour. Like a pipeline. Saw him work a few 5s and 0s. KC0CF worked
    CE2SV. With higher solar activity, the TEP zone still works even in
    our summer. This mode works for D2UY (Angola), 3B9FR (Rodrigues
    Island in Indian Ocean), and ZL."

    An article on Solar Cycle 25 peak and nice images:

    https://bit.ly/3ps6iOI

    Understanding Space Weather: A Glossary of Terms:

    https://bit.ly/3XuimeQ

    "Astro Bob" on that big sunspot:

    https://bit.ly/46rC3YU

    Frequent contributor David Moore shared this fascinating article
    comparing the current big sunspot with the one that launched the
    infamous Carrington Event 164 years ago.

    https://bit.ly/3CUGZYC

    Another Solar Cycle article:

    https://bit.ly/3XvIk1y

    Yet another Carrington Event article:

    https://bit.ly/3XuSe3o

    Article about Solar max:

    https://bit.ly/44jM5tP

    A Houston Chronicle article on solar max:

    https://bit.ly/445vtWf

    Flares and how they are measured:

    https://bit.ly/3prvtRs

    A video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, from last week:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sfXz9nk6NDs

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins

    Sunspot numbers for June 22 through 28, 2023 were 176, 194, 200,
    180, 158, 141, and 141, with a mean of 170. 10.7 cm flux was 173.2,
    169.7, 160.8, 154.8, 157.7, 151.2, and 154.9, with a mean of 160.3.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 9, 16, 15, 11, 8, and 8, with
    a mean of 10.7. Middle latitude A index was 8, 9, 16, 10, 11, 7, and
    8, with a mean of 9.9.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.20-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@1:2320/33 to All on Sat Jul 8 06:43:14 2023

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP027
    ARLP027 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP27
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 27 ARLP027
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA July 7, 2023
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP027
    ARLP027 Propagation de K7RA

    The average daily sunspot number for June, 2023 was the highest in
    21 years, according to Spaceweather.com.

    From a July 3 email alert from Spaceweather.com:

    "SUNSPOT COUNTS HIT A 21-YEAR HIGH: It's official: The average
    sunspot number in June 2023 hit a 21-year high. Solar Cycle 25 has
    shot past its predecessor, Solar Cycle 24, and may be on pace to
    rival some of the stronger cycles of the 20th century."

    Could we see another Cycle 19, the biggest in recorded history, even
    back before the birth of radio?

    Not too long ago, we heard that this cycle should peak in summer
    2025. Later that was revised to 2024. Now I am seeing occasional
    references to a cycle peak at the end of this year.

    From my own records, average daily sunspot numbers for April through
    June 2023 were 93.7, 125.8 and 143.9, a nice upward trend.

    Some popular news outlets seem confused by the difference between
    sunspot number and number of sunspots, and have quoted another
    higher average.

    Here is the difference. If they are just counting the total number
    of sunspots for the month, this is far different from average daily
    sunspot numbers. The sunspot number is somewhat subjective, but it
    gets ten points for each sunspot group, and one point for each
    sunspot in those groups.

    But I stand by my numbers. They are all from NOAA and appear at the
    end of each bulletin.

    But they may be referencing International Sunspot Number, which may
    be different from the SESC numbers from NOAA.

    Here is an example of confusing sunspot numbers with number of
    sunspots: https://bit.ly/3NCQCAl

    This one is also confusing, saying there were 163.4 sunspots in
    June. https://bit.ly/3PMu6Ym

    But what does this mean? It could be either 163 or 164 sunspots,
    but not a fractional number, unless it expresses an average. The
    minimum sunspot number is 11. This would be one sunspot group
    containing one spot. They are always whole, not fractional
    integers.

    There was one new sunspot region (group) on June 30, three more on
    July 1, one more on July 2, another on July 4, and one more on July
    5.

    Sunspot and solar flux data again this week did not track together.
    Average daily sunspot number declined from 170 to 126.1, while
    average daily solar flux rose slightly from 160.3 to 164.5.

    Geomagnetic indicators were lower, with average daily planetary A
    index declining from 10.7 to 7.3, and middle latitude averages from
    9.9 to 8.

    Predicted solar flux is 155 on July 7, 150 on July 8 to 10, then 155
    on July 11, 160 on July 12 to 13, 175 on July 14 to 18, 170 on July
    19 to 21, 160 on July 22 and 23, 155 on July 24 and 25, 160 on July
    26 and 27, 165 on July 28 and 29, then 170, 170 and 165 on July 30
    through August 1, 155 on August 2 to 6, then 160, 165 and 170 on
    August 7 to 9, and 175 on August 10 to 14.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5, 12 and 8 on July 7 to 9, 5 on July
    10 and 11, then 20 and 30 on July 12 and 13, 8 on July 14 to 22, 5
    on July 23 to 30, 8 on July 31 through August 1, then 5 on August 2
    to 4, 12 and 8 on August 5 and 6, then 5, 20 and 30 on August 7 to
    9, and 8 on August 10 to 18.

    Note those big numbers are about one solar rotation apart, which is
    about 27.5 days.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere for July 6, 2023 from F. K. Janda, OK1HH.

    When the current 25th solar cycle began in December 2019, solar
    astronomers thought it would be a weak cycle similar to its
    immediate predecessor, solar cycle 24. But now we have a twenty-one
    year peak. And we expect a continued increase for about two more
    years.

    The misfortune is that ongoing global changes are reducing the
    ionization rate of the ionosphere. Yet the current conditions for
    shortwave or decameter wave propagation do not match the amount of
    solar activity - they are worse.

    But that's not all. Not only is solar cycle 25 likely to rival some
    of the more powerful cycles of the 20th century, but we're likely to
    see even more powerful solar flares and magnetic storms. History
    repeats itself cyclically, and we need only think of the great
    Halloween storm of 2003, including the strongest solar flare ever
    recorded in X-ray (X45).

    The giant sunspot group AR3354 (only about four times smaller than
    the giant sunspot group of early September 1859) made its last
    appearance on July 2 with an X-class flare. Two days later it
    eclipsed.

    We won't lose the source of the stronger flares, however - the
    growing AR3359, with its Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration, crossed
    the central meridian toward active western longitudes on July 6 and
    will continue to grow. With its predicted higher activity, we could
    see an increase in the Earth's magnetic field activity as early as
    the middle of next week.

    Tamitha Skov, from July 1. https://youtu.be/HR8mm30oxOQ

    Blackout http://bit.ly/46tTRT8 https://bit.ly/3rhbjdz

    Stormy weekend? https://bit.ly/3pDrT6R

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins

    Sunspot numbers for June 29 through July 5, 2023 were 112, 187, 119,
    126, 117, 121, and 101, with a mean of 126.1. 10.7 cm flux was
    162.2, 158.6, 165.5, 170.2, 173.2, 167.2, and 154.6, with a mean of
    164.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 17, 8, 5, 5, 5, 4, and 7,
    with a mean of 7.3. Middle latitude A index was 13, 8, 6, 8, 7, 5,
    and 9, with a mean of 8.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.20-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@1:2320/33 to All on Fri Jul 14 18:17:47 2023
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP028
    ARLP028 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP28
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 28 ARLP028
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA July 14, 2023
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP028
    ARLP028 Propagation de K7RA

    "GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 0713UT/13 JULY 2023 BY
    THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

    A glancing CME impact is expected late on 13-July and another CME
    impact is expected early on 15-July. These impacts present the
    possibility of geomagnetic storm activity over 13-15 July."

    We saw a welcome rise in solar activity this reporting week, July
    6-12.

    Referencing the previous seven days, average daily sunspot numbers
    rose from 126.1 to 181.9, while average daily solar flux increased
    from 164.5 to 179.4. On July 13 the solar flux was 202.9, well above
    the average for the previous seven days.

    Geomagnetic indicators did not change much, average planetary A
    index going from 7.3 to 8.6 and average daily middle latitude A
    index from 8 to 8.1.

    The most active day was July 7 when University of Alaska's college A
    index was 40. The middle latitude A index on that day was only 11.
    The college A index is from a magnetometer in Fairbanks.

    What is the outlook for the next month?

    Predicted solar flux looks great over the next few days, at 200,
    202, 198, 200, and 204 on July 14-18, 202 on July 19-21, 160 on July
    22-23, 155 on July 24-25, 160 on July 26-27, 165 on July 28-29, 170
    on July 30-31, 165 on August 1-4, 170 on August 5, 175 on August
    6-7, 170 on August 8, then 165 on August 9-11, 170 on August 12, 175
    on August 13-14, 170 on August 15-17, and 160 on August 18-19.

    Predicted planetary A index is 10 on July 14, 5 on July 15 through
    August 2, then 10, 8 and 5 on August 3-5, then 8, 8, 5, 8 and 8 on
    August 6-10, 5 on August 11 through the end of the month.

    On July 12, Spaceweather.com reported:

    "A new hyperactive sunspot is producing M-class solar flares every
    few hours. This is causing shortwave radio blackouts around all
    longitudes of our planet. If current trends continue, an X-flare
    could be in the offing."

    See Spaceweather.com for updates.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere July 14-20, 2023 from OK1HH.

    "Over the past week, we were surprised by two large groups of spots
    that appeared on the eastern limb of the solar disk.

    The first of these, AR3363, emerged in the southeast. Although it
    remained large, there was nothing significant going on. Its opposite
    was AR 3372 a few days later, which produced moderate-sized flares
    almost daily.

    In both cases, helioseismic echoes from the sun's far side suggested
    that it may be the leading edge of a large active region.

    But there was no indication that these would be areas with a
    diametrically different type of activity.

    The images of the two groups of spots were large enough to be
    observed by the Mars rover Perseverance. Because of Mars' position,
    it saw them a few days earlier than a terrestrial observer. For the
    record: Perseverance observes the Sun daily, but mainly so that it
    can tell from the drop in brightness that a Martian dust storm is
    approaching.

    AR3372 activity is increasing, while on July 11 and 12 several
    M-class solar flares (some with CMEs) have already occurred (X-class
    flare appeared to be imminent). In particular, it was almost certain
    that the Earth's magnetic field activity would increase in the
    following days. The probability of magnetic storms increased
    significantly as AR3372 rotated more and more toward the Earth."

    Carl, K9LA had comments on the OK1HH report from last week.

    "There have been many papers in recent years that have looked at the
    trends in ionospheric parameters over the past decades. Although the
    changes are small, they do show up in ionosonde data after much math
    to eliminate solar activity and geomagnetic field activity. These
    results show both positive and negative trends in the F2 region
    electron density, likely due to neutral atmosphere dynamics and
    electrodynamics that could give regional differences.

    An interesting paper in 2008 Geophysical Research Letters modeled
    the increased levels of CO2 (global warming) in the atmosphere
    versus the impact on the ionosphere.

    See: https://bit.ly/3OaThCC

    They used 2000 as the baseline with 365 ppmv of CO2, and doubled the
    amount of CO2 for the year 2100. Their results showed that electron
    densities in the E and F1 region would increase a couple percent in
    2100 while the height of the E region peak would decrease a couple
    km. In the F2 region, the electron density would decrease by several
    percent in 2100 while the height of the F2 region would decrease 10
    or so km."

    Thanks to reader David Moore for this, on aurora hype:

    https://bit.ly/44ovzsh

    Flare video (with music.)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aghiHieqCZQ

    Huge sunspot: https://bit.ly/44EcqTz

    Tamitha Skov reports: https://youtu.be/nwtCBH04bIg

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
    which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins

    Sunspot numbers for July 6 through 12, 2023 were 149, 147, 167, 183,
    181, 227, and 219, with a mean of 181.9. 10.7 cm flux was 157.6,
    161.4, 160.5, 179.2, 190.6, 213.5, and 193.3, with a mean of 179.4.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 18, 8, 4, 5, 8, and 6, with a
    mean of 8.6. Middle latitude A index was 11, 16, 6, 4, 6, 8, and 6,
    with a mean of 8.1.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.20-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@1:2320/33 to All on Fri Jul 21 18:05:02 2023

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP029
    ARLP029 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP29
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 29 ARLP029
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA July 21, 2023
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP029
    ARLP029 Propagation de K7RA

    Average daily sunspot numbers declined, but average daily solar flux
    increased. Sunspot averages were 181.9 last week, and 130.6 this
    week. Average daily solar flux increased from 179.4 to 190.5.

    Two new sunspot groups emerged on July 14, three more on July 17 and
    another two on July 19.

    Average daily planetary and middle latitude A index were both 12.9
    this week, rising from 8.6 and 8.1.

    Predicted solar flux is 185 on July 21-23, then 180, 178, 175 and
    170 on July 24-27, 165 on July 28-29, 170 on July 30-31, 165 on
    August 1-4, then 170, 175, 175 and 170 on August 5-8, 165 on August
    9-11, 170 on August 12, 175 on August 13-14, and 170 on August
    15-19, 160 on August 20-23, 165 on August 24-25, then 170 on August
    26-27 and 165 on August 28-31.

    Predicted planetary A index is 20, 12, 8, 12 and 10 on July 21-25, 5
    on July 26 through August 2, then 10 and 8 on August 3-4, 5 on
    August 5-14, then 12, 8 and 8 on August 15-17, and 5 on August
    18-29.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere for July 20, 2023 from OK1HH.

    "We've seen another seven days of mostly moderate solar activity,
    with almost daily eruptions of moderate magnitude on the Sun. Some
    of these have been the source of CMEs. If the Earth has been
    affected by them, a geomagnetic disturbance followed, with a drop in
    MUF and a worsening of HF propagation in the process.

    As predicted, the expected CME hit the Earth's magnetic field on the
    afternoon of 14 July (as part of the Bastille Day celebrations, but
    not nearly as strongly as in 2000).

    Another CME left the Sun on 14 July, and yet another on July 15.
    Because the cloud of later ejected solar plasma was faster, it
    cannibalized the previous CME. Together, they hit the Earth on July
    18.

    But by then AR3363 had already produced a significant long-lasting
    M6-class solar flare, and energetic protons accelerated by this
    flare reached the Earth and caused a radiation storm. Although MUFs
    were quite high, HF conditions were adversely affected by frequent
    occurrences of attenuation.

    Another CME hit the Earth on 20 July, registered by the Earth's
    magnetic field at 1708 UTC.

    Further developments were predicted up to G1 to G2 class geomagnetic
    storms, with a small probability also of G3, but by then this report
    will have been completed and sent out.

    Finally, just a little note on the consequences of global change: it
    has been manifested in the last eleven-year cycles, in the Earth's
    troposphere it is the result of warming, but in the ionosphere it is
    rather the opposite. It has been the subject of a number of
    scientific papers in recent years.

    It is crucial for us, for amateur radio practice, that the current
    MUFs are lower than those calculated from sunspot counts for most of
    the twentieth century. Therefore, we should input Ri (or solar flux
    SFU) into forecast programs lower than what is currently measured
    and published.

    F.K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH http://ok1hh.nagano.cz/ "

    News from N8II in West Virginia.

    "The bands are in much better shape than most hams realize; activity
    levels are normally quite low this summer. In the IARU contest I
    observed 15M open to Europe through 0300 UTC and I had QSOs with
    Indonesia, China, Nepal, Japan, Central/Western Siberia, Kazakhstan,
    and the Philippines in the 2300-0300 UTC period.

    I copied GR2HQ (Great Britain HQ station) on 10M CW at 0140 UTC. At
    1100 UTC on 15M EU and Central/West Asia were very loud and I
    started running a pile up on CW.

    The Far East was also in on 15M around 1400 UTC Saturday when I
    worked a loud Japanese station.

    During the evening/night EU signals were extremely loud on 20M. I
    also worked a few EU on 10M 1300-1400 UTC Saturday thanks to
    Sporadic E and also caught Z30HQ (Macedonia HQ) on 10M CW Sunday
    about 1130 UTC. I worked 697 QSOs concentrating on DX on the high
    bands in less than 12 hours with 100 W.

    Africa is workable on 10-15M well into our evening as are South
    Pacific stations.

    Sporadic E this year seems somewhat attenuated, but Es was good from
    here and great from the Central/Western USA during the June VHF
    contest. I made about 170 CW/SSB QSOs."

    CNN presented a smart piece on the sunspot cycle peaking sooner than
    expected. https://bit.ly/3rzNJJ6

    Double peaked flare. https://bit.ly/46ZoznE

    Astronomy club observes sunspots. https://bit.ly/46SaacR

    Aurora. https://bit.ly/44FxM2U

    Scientific American. https://bit.ly/3rHzGkB

    Early peak. https://bit.ly/44Aa7AF https://bit.ly/3rEa0Wj

    Cannibal eruption. https://bit.ly/3Q5dv1W

    Great video of eruption. https://youtu.be/YOzHHM4B4gA

    The latest from Space Weather Woman Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW.

    https://youtu.be/KsKDVOuboyw

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell
    us which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins

    Sunspot numbers for July 13 through 19, 2023 were 146, 141, 96, 99,
    149, 142, and 141, with a mean of 130.6. 10.7 cm flux was 202.9,
    180.6, 178.5, 184.3, 180, 218.5, and 188.9, with a mean of 190.5.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 20, 8, 10, 24, 16, and 5, with
    a mean of 12.9. Middle latitude A index was 9, 17, 9, 13, 19, 16,
    and 7, with a mean of 12.9.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.20-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@1:2320/33 to All on Fri Jul 28 17:07:23 2023

    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP030
    ARLP030 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP30
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 30 ARLP030
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA July 28, 2023
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP030
    ARLP030 Propagation de K7RA

    Average daily sunspot numbers declined slightly over the past week
    (July 20-26) to 128.1, compared to 130.6 over the previous seven
    days.

    Average daily solar flux declined significantly from 190.5 to 172.2.

    The solar flux forecast sees values at 165 and 162 on July 28-29,
    158 on July 30-31, then 155 on August 1-3, then 165, 170 and 175 on
    August 4-6, 180 on August 7-10, 175 on August 11-13, 180 on August
    14-15, 175 on August 16-18, 170 on August 19, then 165, 165 and 160
    on August 20-22, and 155 on August 23-26, 160 on August 27, 165 on
    August 28-30, 170 and 175 on August 31 through September 1, and 180
    on September 2-6.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on July 28-29, 15 and 10 on July
    30-31, 5 on August 1-3, 8 on August 4, 5 on August 5-9, 10 on August
    10, 8 on August 11-13, 5 on August 14-19, then 10, 8 and 5 on August
    20-22, 12 on August 23-24, 10 on August 25-26, 5 on August 27-29, 10
    and 8 on August 30-31, and 5 on September 1-5.

    Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
    Ionosphere -- July 27, 2023 from OK1HH.

    "The likelihood of more massive solar flares has slowly decreased in
    recent days as large groups of spots have fallen behind the western
    limb of the solar disk and the magnetic configuration of the
    remaining regions has become increasingly simple over the past few
    days.

    On July 20 and 21, two CMEs struck Earth's magnetic field in
    accordance with the prediction. However, both impacts were weak and
    did not produce even a minor geomagnetic storm.

    Another weak halo CME was expected to leave the Sun on 23 July at
    about 1530 UTC in a C5 class flare in spot group AR3376, coinciding
    with the outburst of a relatively nearby magnetic filament. The
    Earth's magnetic field detected its arrival at 0200 UTC on 26 July.
    The result was an increase in geomagnetic activity and a
    deterioration of shortwave propagation conditions. The disturbance
    actually started on 25 July at 2235 UTC, but it was not clear
    whether it was an early arrival of the same CME or another one that
    we did not detect.

    Note: since I will be abroad next week, I will not post the next
    comment on August 3, but on August 10."

    Sunspots, flares and aurora. https://bit.ly/44JxcRp

    Mars Rover sees the far side of the sun. https://bit.ly/3KbRV8b

    Rocket punches hole in ionosphere. https://bit.ly/3KceBFB

    Nearly five decades ago I witnessed the same thing, viewed from
    Marin County, California. It was a huge dramatic display, My friend
    had seen it before, and said it was created by a rocket launch from
    Vandenberg AFB in Southern California.

    Another CME. https://bit.ly/44LhRjx

    On July 27, Spaceweather.com sent this alert:

    "A STRONG FARSIDE CME JUST HIT SOLAR ORBITER: Europe's Solar Orbiter
    just got hit by the kind of CME that may have once caused a major
    power blackout on Earth. This time, Earth was not in the line of
    fire. It was a farside eruption that flew away from our planet.
    Maybe next time?"

    Massive flare? https://bit.ly/3Ya7OSC

    Latest from Dr. Tamitha Skov. https://youtu.be/cD5VbWvBXsE

    Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
    k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell
    us which mode you were operating.

    For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

    Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

    https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins

    Sunspot numbers for July 20 through 26, 2023 were 131, 121, 103,
    117, 141, 137, and 147, with a mean of 128.1 10.7 cm flux was
    184.3, 172.8, 174.4, 172.5, 165.1, 169, and 167.4, with a mean of
    172.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 13, 9, 6, 7, 11, and
    21, with a mean of 11. Middle latitude A index was 10, 11, 9, 5, 8,
    12, and 23, with a mean of 11.1.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.20-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (1:2320/33)