Garfield: Predicting the future
https://www.gocomics.com/garfield/2026/01/03
Predicting the pizza delivery is the one exception to the Niels Bohr
law, the Nobel laureate in Physics and father of the atomic model, who
is quoted as saying, ?Prediction is very difficult, especially if it?s
about the future!?.
https://blogs.cranfield.ac.uk/cbp/forecasting-prediction-is-very-difficult-especially-if-its-about-the-future/
In <10jf5km$2fqfq$1@dont-email.me> Lynn McGuire
<lynnmcguire5@gmail.com> writes:
Garfield: Predicting the future
https://www.gocomics.com/garfield/2026/01/03
Predicting the pizza delivery is the one exception to the Niels Bohr
law, the Nobel laureate in Physics and father of the atomic model, who
is quoted as saying, "??Prediction is very difficult, especially if itƒ??s >> about the future!"??.
https://blogs.cranfield.ac.uk/cbp/forecasting-prediction-is-very-difficult-especially-if-its-about-the-future/
That phrase is also attributed to Yogi Berra of the NY Yankees.
On 2026-01-05 02:00:17 +0000, danny burstein said:
In <10jf5km$2fqfq$1@dont-email.me> Lynn McGuire
<lynnmcguire5@gmail.com> writes:
Garfield: Predicting the future
https://www.gocomics.com/garfield/2026/01/03
Predicting the pizza delivery is the one exception to the Niels Bohr
law, the Nobel laureate in Physics and father of the atomic model, who
is quoted as saying, "??Prediction is very difficult, especially if
itƒ??s
about the future!"??.
https://blogs.cranfield.ac.uk/cbp/forecasting-prediction-is-very-
difficult-especially-if-its-about-the-future/
That phrase is also attributed to Yogi Berra of the NY Yankees.
And Samuel Goldwyn, Mark Twain, Robert Storm Petersen, and Nostrdamus,
among others.
The reality is that it is just an old Danish saying and nobody knows the real origin. It also comes in different phrasings:
ÿÿ It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.
ÿÿ Predictions are hazardous, especially about the future.
ÿÿ It is hard to prophecy, particularly about the future.
ÿÿ It?s [always] dangerous to prophesy, particularly about the future.
ÿÿ Never make forecasts, especially about the future. <https://quoteinvestigator.com/2013/10/20/no-predict/>
On 1/4/26 18:15, Your Name wrote:
On 2026-01-05 02:00:17 +0000, danny burstein said:
In <10jf5km$2fqfq$1@dont-email.me> Lynn McGuire
<lynnmcguire5@gmail.com> writes:
Garfield: Predicting the future
https://www.gocomics.com/garfield/2026/01/03
Predicting the pizza delivery is the one exception to the Niels Bohr
law, the Nobel laureate in Physics and father of the atomic model, who >>>> is quoted as saying, "??Prediction is very difficult, especially if itƒ??s >>>> about the future!"??.
https://blogs.cranfield.ac.uk/cbp/forecasting-prediction-is-very-
difficult-especially-if-its-about-the-future/
That phrase is also attributed to Yogi Berra of the NY Yankees.
And Samuel Goldwyn, Mark Twain, Robert Storm Petersen, and Nostrdamus,
among others.
The reality is that it is just an old Danish saying and nobody knows
the real origin. It also comes in different phrasings:
ÿÿ It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.
ÿÿ Predictions are hazardous, especially about the future.
ÿÿ It is hard to prophecy, particularly about the future.
ÿÿ It?s [always] dangerous to prophesy, particularly about the future.
ÿÿ Never make forecasts, especially about the future.
<https://quoteinvestigator.com/2013/10/20/no-predict/>
The obvious solution is to predict the Past. It is almost always
as accurate as you can get and is a very old literary device. Check your
Old Testament for many fine examples.
bliss - who is more cynical than anyone would have predicted in 1941.
On 2026-01-05 03:28:14 +0000, Bobbie Sellers said:
On 1/4/26 18:15, Your Name wrote:
On 2026-01-05 02:00:17 +0000, danny burstein said:
In <10jf5km$2fqfq$1@dont-email.me> Lynn McGuire
<lynnmcguire5@gmail.com> writes:
Garfield: Predicting the future
https://www.gocomics.com/garfield/2026/01/03
Predicting the pizza delivery is the one exception to the Niels Bohr >>>>> law, the Nobel laureate in Physics and father of the atomic model, who >>>>> is quoted as saying, "??Prediction is very difficult, especially if >>>>> itƒ??s
about the future!"??.
https://blogs.cranfield.ac.uk/cbp/forecasting-prediction-is-very-
difficult-especially-if-its-about-the-future/
That phrase is also attributed to Yogi Berra of the NY Yankees.
And Samuel Goldwyn, Mark Twain, Robert Storm Petersen, and
Nostrdamus, among others.
The reality is that it is just an old Danish saying and nobody knows
the real origin. It also comes in different phrasings:
ÿÿ It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.
ÿÿ Predictions are hazardous, especially about the future.
ÿÿ It is hard to prophecy, particularly about the future.
ÿÿ It?s [always] dangerous to prophesy, particularly about the future.
ÿÿ Never make forecasts, especially about the future.
<https://quoteinvestigator.com/2013/10/20/no-predict/>
ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ The obvious solution is to predict the Past.ÿ It is almost always
ÿÿÿÿas accurate as you can get and is a very old literary device.
Check your
ÿÿÿÿOld Testament for many fine examples.
ÿÿÿÿbliss - who is more cynical than anyone would have predicted in 1941.
You don't need the mythical stories of the Bible. There are plenty of
actual "historic records" that are wrong - either because the person
writing it didn't know enough at the time or because they simply lied.
On 1/4/26 21:18, Your Name wrote:
You don't need the mythical stories of the Bible. There are plenty of
actual "historic records" that are wrong - either because the person
writing it didn't know enough at the time or because they simply lied.
Name another volume that people might be familiar with, please.
On 1/4/26 18:15, Your Name wrote:
On 2026-01-05 02:00:17 +0000, danny burstein said:
In <10jf5km$2fqfq$1@dont-email.me> Lynn McGuire
<lynnmcguire5@gmail.com> writes:
Garfield: Predicting the future
https://www.gocomics.com/garfield/2026/01/03
Predicting the pizza delivery is the one exception to the Niels Bohr
law, the Nobel laureate in Physics and father of the atomic model, who >>>> is quoted as saying, "??Prediction is very difficult, especially if
itƒ??s
about the future!"??.
https://blogs.cranfield.ac.uk/cbp/forecasting-prediction-is-very-
difficult-especially-if-its-about-the-future/
That phrase is also attributed to Yogi Berra of the NY Yankees.
And Samuel Goldwyn, Mark Twain, Robert Storm Petersen, and Nostrdamus,
among others.
The reality is that it is just an old Danish saying and nobody knows
the real origin. It also comes in different phrasings:
ÿÿÿ It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.
ÿÿÿ Predictions are hazardous, especially about the future.
ÿÿÿ It is hard to prophecy, particularly about the future.
ÿÿÿ It?s [always] dangerous to prophesy, particularly about the future.
ÿÿÿ Never make forecasts, especially about the future.
<https://quoteinvestigator.com/2013/10/20/no-predict/>
ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ The obvious solution is to predict the Past.ÿ It is almost always
ÿÿÿÿas accurate as you can get and is a very old literary device.
Check your
ÿÿÿÿOld Testament for many fine examples.
On 1/4/2026 10:28 PM, Bobbie Sellers wrote:
On 1/4/26 18:15, Your Name wrote:
On 2026-01-05 02:00:17 +0000, danny burstein said:
In <10jf5km$2fqfq$1@dont-email.me> Lynn McGuire
<lynnmcguire5@gmail.com> writes:
Garfield: Predicting the future
https://www.gocomics.com/garfield/2026/01/03
Predicting the pizza delivery is the one exception to the Niels Bohr >>>>> law, the Nobel laureate in Physics and father of the atomic model, who >>>>> is quoted as saying, "??Prediction is very difficult,
especially if itƒ??s
about the future!"??.
https://blogs.cranfield.ac.uk/cbp/forecasting-prediction-is-very-
difficult-especially-if-its-about-the-future/
That phrase is also attributed to Yogi Berra of the NY Yankees.
And Samuel Goldwyn, Mark Twain, Robert Storm Petersen, and
Nostrdamus, among others.
The reality is that it is just an old Danish saying and nobody knows
the real origin. It also comes in different phrasings:
ÿÿÿ It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.
ÿÿÿ Predictions are hazardous, especially about the future.
ÿÿÿ It is hard to prophecy, particularly about the future.
ÿÿÿ It?s [always] dangerous to prophesy, particularly about the future.
ÿÿÿ Never make forecasts, especially about the future.
<https://quoteinvestigator.com/2013/10/20/no-predict/>
ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ The obvious solution is to predict the Past.ÿ It is almost
always
ÿÿÿÿÿas accurate as you can get and is a very old literary device.
Check your
ÿÿÿÿÿOld Testament for many fine examples.
A few years ago we had a guy on here who did that. He claimed he was
about to become rich playing the stock market, using technical
analysis to predict short term changes (ie, he was like most "day
traders").
Every example he used to 'prove' it would work involved cherry picked examples where the result had already occurred. Challenged to predict
an event that hadn't actually happened yet, he failed miserably.
Cryptoengineer wrote:
On 1/4/2026 10:28 PM, Bobbie Sellers wrote:
On 1/4/26 18:15, Your Name wrote:
On 2026-01-05 02:00:17 +0000, danny burstein said:
In <10jf5km$2fqfq$1@dont-email.me> Lynn McGuire
<lynnmcguire5@gmail.com> writes:
Garfield: Predicting the future
https://www.gocomics.com/garfield/2026/01/03
Predicting the pizza delivery is the one exception to the Niels Bohr >>>>>> law, the Nobel laureate in Physics and father of the atomic model, who >>>>>> is quoted as saying, "??Prediction is very difficult, especially if itƒ??s
about the future!"??.
https://blogs.cranfield.ac.uk/cbp/forecasting-prediction-is-very- >>>>>> difficult-especially-if-its-about-the-future/
That phrase is also attributed to Yogi Berra of the NY Yankees.
And Samuel Goldwyn, Mark Twain, Robert Storm Petersen, and Nostrdamus, >>>> among others.
The reality is that it is just an old Danish saying and nobody knows
the real origin. It also comes in different phrasings:
ÿÿÿ It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.
ÿÿÿ Predictions are hazardous, especially about the future.
ÿÿÿ It is hard to prophecy, particularly about the future.
ÿÿÿ It?s [always] dangerous to prophesy, particularly about the future. >>>> ÿÿÿ Never make forecasts, especially about the future.
<https://quoteinvestigator.com/2013/10/20/no-predict/>
The obvious solution is to predict the Past.ÿ It is almost always as
accurate as you can get and is a very old literary device. Check your
Old Testament for many fine examples.
A few years ago we had a guy on here who did that. He claimed he was
about to become rich playing the stock market, using technical
analysis to predict short term changes (ie, he was like most "day
traders").
Every example he used to 'prove' it would work involved cherry picked
examples where the result had already occurred. Challenged to predict
an event that hadn't actually happened yet, he failed miserably.
If I'd known he was going to use "technical analysis" I could have
predicted that he'd lose money.
William Hyde
On 1/4/26 21:18, Your Name wrote:
You don't need the mythical stories of the Bible. There are plenty of
actual "historic records" that are wrong - either because the person
writing it didn't know enough at the time or because they simply lied.
Name another volume that people might be familiar with, please.
A few years ago we had a guy on here who did that. He claimed he was
about to become rich playing the stock market, using technical
analysis to predict short term changes (ie, he was like most "day
traders").
Every example he used to 'prove' it would work involved cherry picked >examples where the result had already occurred. Challenged to predict
an event that hadn't actually happened yet, he failed miserably.
Bobbie Sellers <blissInSanFrancisco@mouse-potato.com> wrote:
On 1/4/26 21:18, Your Name wrote:
You don't need the mythical stories of the Bible. There are plenty of
lied.actual "historic records" that are wrong - either because the person
writing it didn't know enough at the time or because they simply
Atlantis
Name another volume that people might be familiar with, please.
The Illiad. History of the Pelopponesian War turns out to have some
issues as well. And I am somewhat skeptical of the discussion of
in Plato's Dialogues although it may well have been Ireland.
On 2026-01-05 22:47:13 +0000, William Hyde said:Bohr
Cryptoengineer wrote:
On 1/4/2026 10:28 PM, Bobbie Sellers wrote:
On 1/4/26 18:15, Your Name wrote:
On 2026-01-05 02:00:17 +0000, danny burstein said:
In <10jf5km$2fqfq$1@dont-email.me> Lynn McGuire
<lynnmcguire5@gmail.com> writes:
Garfield: Predicting the future
https://www.gocomics.com/garfield/2026/01/03
Predicting the pizza delivery is the one exception to the Niels
model, wholaw, the Nobel laureate in Physics and father of the atomic
especially if itƒ??sis quoted as saying, "??Prediction is very difficult,
about the future!"???.
https://blogs.cranfield.ac.uk/cbp/forecasting-prediction-is-very-
Nostrdamus,difficult-especially-if-its-about-the-future/
That phrase is also attributed to Yogi Berra of the NY Yankees.
And Samuel Goldwyn, Mark Twain, Robert Storm Petersen, and
knowsamong others.
The reality is that it is just an old Danish saying and nobody
about the future.the real origin. It also comes in different phrasings:
ÿÿÿ It is difficult to make predictions, especially
future.ÿÿÿ Predictions are hazardous, especially about the
future.ÿÿÿ It is hard to prophecy, particularly about the
particularly about the future.ÿÿÿ It?s [always] dangerous to prophesy,
future.ÿÿÿ Never make forecasts, especially about the
always as<https://quoteinvestigator.com/2013/10/20/no-predict/>
The obvious solution is to predict the Past.ÿ It is almost
youraccurate as you can get and is a very old literary device. Check
Old Testament for many fine examples.
A few years ago we had a guy on here who did that. He claimed he was
about to become rich playing the stock market, using technical
analysis to predict short term changes (ie, he was like most "day
traders").
Every example he used to 'prove' it would work involved cherry picked
examples where the result had already occurred. Challenged to predict
an event that hadn't actually happened yet, he failed miserably.
If I'd known he was going to use "technical analysis" I could have
predicted that he'd lose money.
William Hyde
If I'd known he was going to be "playing the stock market", I could
have predicted that he'd lose money. The stock market is an idiot's
game for greedy fools who can afford to lose money.
Cryptoengineer <petertrei@gmail.com> wrote:
A few years ago we had a guy on here who did that. He claimed he was
about to become rich playing the stock market, using technical
analysis to predict short term changes (ie, he was like most "day >>traders").
Years ago we had an engineer who basically wasted the branch's annual >computer budget to buy an SGI Crimson computer in order to run FFTs on >Standard and Poors data. He was convinced he could tease out repeating >patterns in the market in isolation with no need to examine external >influences.
introduceEvery example he used to 'prove' it would work involved cherry picked >>examples where the result had already occurred. Challenged to predict
an event that hadn't actually happened yet, he failed miserably.
The good news is that the engineer in my example lost a lot of money and
had to sell his boat. The bad news is that he was not put into jail for >misappropriation of funds. The intermediate news is that it did
Matlab to the organization.
A few years ago we had a guy on here who did that. He claimed he was
about to become rich playing the stock market, using technical
analysis to predict short term changes (ie, he was like most "day
traders").
Every example he used to 'prove' it would work involved cherry picked >examples where the result had already occurred. Challenged to predict
an event that hadn't actually happened yet, he failed miserably.
On Mon, 5 Jan 2026 19:12:22 -0500 (EST), kludge@panix.com (Scott
Dorsey) wrote:
Bobbie Sellers <blissInSanFrancisco@mouse-potato.com> wrote:
On 1/4/26 21:18, Your Name wrote:
You don't need the mythical stories of the Bible. There are plenty of
actual "historic records" that are wrong - either because the person
writing it didn't know enough at the time or because they simply lied.
Name another volume that people might be familiar with, please.
The Illiad. History of the Pelopponesian War turns out to have some
issues as well. And I am somewhat skeptical of the discussion of Atlantis >> in Plato's Dialogues although it may well have been Ireland.
Or a nearby island that went volcanic catastrophically and was still remembered for doing so when Plato wrote.
Of course, how accurate the account is (if there were no survivors,
how accurate could it be?) is hard to say.
On Mon, 5 Jan 2026 19:12:22 -0500 (EST), kludge@panix.com (Scott
Dorsey) wrote:
The Illiad. History of the Pelopponesian War turns out to have some=20 >>issues as well. And I am somewhat skeptical of the discussion of =Atlantis
in Plato's Dialogues although it may well have been Ireland.
Or a nearby island that went volcanic catastrophically and was still >remembered for doing so when Plato wrote.
Of course, how accurate the account is (if there were no survivors,
how accurate could it be?) is hard to say.
On Mon, 5 Jan 2026 15:46:42 -0500, Cryptoengineer
<petertrei@gmail.com> wrote:
Every example he used to 'prove' it would work involved cherry picked >>examples where the result had already occurred. Challenged to predict
an event that hadn't actually happened yet, he failed miserably.
This is why most modern "prophets" are very very vague, either about
what will happen or when it will happen (or both).
On Sun, 4 Jan 2026 21:26:12 -0800, Bobbie Sellers <bliss-sf4ever@dslextreme.com> wrote:
On 1/4/26 21:18, Your Name wrote:
<snippo minor "cultured despiser" attack>
You don't need the mythical stories of the Bible. There are plenty of
actual "historic records" that are wrong - either because the person
writing it didn't know enough at the time or because they simply lied.
Name another volume that people might be familiar with, please.
Well, I kind of suspect that Herodotus, the Father of History, never actually saw the Ant-Men he wrote about.
And comparing his version of the Course of the Nile with reality
suggests he missed a turn somewhere in the Sudan, resulting in a Nile
that moves West directly below the Sahara instead of continuing on
South.
And Thucydides, in /The Peloponesian Wars/, explicitly states that all
those great speeches he gives were made up by him to suit the
situation.
And, despite Schliemann's literally digging Troy and Mycenae out of
the ground, many believe that Homer's accounts were not entirely
accurate.
On Tue, 6 Jan 2026 12:32:37 +1300, Your Name <YourName@YourISP.com>
wrote:
On 2026-01-05 22:47:13 +0000, William Hyde said:
Cryptoengineer wrote:
On 1/4/2026 10:28 PM, Bobbie Sellers wrote:
On 1/4/26 18:15, Your Name wrote:
On 2026-01-05 02:00:17 +0000, danny burstein said:
In <10jf5km$2fqfq$1@dont-email.me> Lynn McGuire
<lynnmcguire5@gmail.com> writes:
Garfield: Predicting the future
https://www.gocomics.com/garfield/2026/01/03
Predicting the pizza delivery is the one exception to the Niels Bohr >>>>>>>> law, the Nobel laureate in Physics and father of the atomic model, who >>>>>>>> is quoted as saying, "????Prediction is very difficult, especially if it?›????s
about the future!"????.
https://blogs.cranfield.ac.uk/cbp/forecasting-prediction-is-very- >>>>>>>> difficult-especially-if-its-about-the-future/
That phrase is also attributed to Yogi Berra of the NY Yankees.
And Samuel Goldwyn, Mark Twain, Robert Storm Petersen, and Nostrdamus, >>>>>> among others.
The reality is that it is just an old Danish saying and nobody knows >>>>>> the real origin. It also comes in different phrasings:
?ÿ?ÿ?ÿ It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future. >>>>>> ?ÿ?ÿ?ÿ Predictions are hazardous, especially about the future.
?ÿ?ÿ?ÿ It is hard to prophecy, particularly about the future.
?ÿ?ÿ?ÿ Itƒ??s [always] dangerous to prophesy, particularly about the future.
?ÿ?ÿ?ÿ Never make forecasts, especially about the future.
<https://quoteinvestigator.com/2013/10/20/no-predict/>
The obvious solution is to predict the Past.?ÿ It is almost always as >>>>> accurate as you can get and is a very old literary device. Check your >>>>> Old Testament for many fine examples.
A few years ago we had a guy on here who did that. He claimed he was
about to become rich playing the stock market, using technical
analysis to predict short term changes (ie, he was like most "day
traders").
Every example he used to 'prove' it would work involved cherry picked
examples where the result had already occurred. Challenged to predict
an event that hadn't actually happened yet, he failed miserably.
If I'd known he was going to use "technical analysis" I could have
predicted that he'd lose money.
William Hyde
If I'd known he was going to be "playing the stock market", I could
have predicted that he'd lose money. The stock market is an idiot's
game for greedy fools who can afford to lose money.
IIRC, in an economics class, we were told that "the function of the
Market is return any sizeable sum of money the non-rich may have
accumulated to its rightful owners, the rich".
Note that it is my understanding that using Mutual Funds is supposed
to help ameliorate some of the more piratical tendencies of the
Market.
On Mon, 5 Jan 2026 19:17:29 -0500 (EST), kludge@panix.com (Scott
Dorsey) wrote:
Cryptoengineer <petertrei@gmail.com> wrote:
A few years ago we had a guy on here who did that. He claimed he was >>>about to become rich playing the stock market, using technical
analysis to predict short term changes (ie, he was like most "day >>>traders").
Years ago we had an engineer who basically wasted the branch's annual >>computer budget to buy an SGI Crimson computer in order to run FFTs on >>Standard and Poors data. He was convinced he could tease out repeating >>patterns in the market in isolation with no need to examine external >>influences.
There is a film /Pi/ (the actual title is the Greek letter, about a
genius who prints out a mysterious number that can predict the market.
As might be imagined, chaos ensues, particularly when a group of
Hasidic Jews decide it is really the True Name of God with which they
can return to absolute power.
Paul S Person wrote:of
On Sun, 4 Jan 2026 21:26:12 -0800, Bobbie Sellers
<bliss-sf4ever@dslextreme.com> wrote:
On 1/4/26 21:18, Your Name wrote:
<snippo minor "cultured despiser" attack>
You don't need the mythical stories of the Bible. There are plenty
lied.actual "historic records" that are wrong - either because the person
writing it didn't know enough at the time or because they simply
Name another volume that people might be familiar with, please.
Well, I kind of suspect that Herodotus, the Father of History, never
actually saw the Ant-Men he wrote about.
And comparing his version of the Course of the Nile with reality
suggests he missed a turn somewhere in the Sudan, resulting in a Nile
that moves West directly below the Sahara instead of continuing on
South.
And Thucydides, in /The Peloponesian Wars/, explicitly states that all
those great speeches he gives were made up by him to suit the
situation.
According to M. I. Findlay, Thucydides claimed that he was not writing >history, but merely selecting episodes from this war as lessons for
future Athenian leaders. The speeches, presumably, illustrated the
points he hoped to make.
He even, at one point, expressed some contempt for pure historians.
And, despite Schliemann's literally digging Troy and Mycenae out ofAccording to the Anglo-Saxon chronicle, written by monks, no Anglo-Saxon
the ground, many believe that Homer's accounts were not entirely
accurate.
king who was in good standing with the church ever lost a battle, whileOT.
no king who was in bad standing with the church ever won one.
In this they were hewing to ancient precedent, the story of Ahab in the
Paul S Person wrote:
Buy a broad index, and wait. This strategy has worked now for about a >century and a half. Mind you, it was not easy to do before cheap index >funds were introduced in the early 1970s on the recommendation of a
scholar of the markets.
It is unfortunate, however, if you put your entire fortune into the
market in September 1929. Then you will have to wait a long while.
And before regulation in the 30s, bear traps and bull traps, plus many a
pump and dump operation, constituted legal robbery of the small
investor. I expect that those regulations, if not already revoked, will
soon be gone.
Even without that they still exist in somewhat better disguise now,
though on small and often unregulated markets the old pump and dump
still exists in all its glory. A ... person I know tried to pull this
on a friend of mine, one of the canniest folk you'll ever meet. That
did not work.
In fact, I made money on the first stock I ever bought when it was
targeted for this operation. All unknowing, I bought a year before the
pump and was nervous enough that I sold before the dump. It was years >before I figured out what happened.
IIRC, in an economics class, we were told that "the function of the
Market is return any sizeable sum of money the non-rich may have
accumulated to its rightful owners, the rich".
Note that it is my understanding that using Mutual Funds is supposed
to help ameliorate some of the more piratical tendencies of the
Market.
Actively managed Mutual funds charge far more in fees than they are
worth. You may profit from holding them, but the vast majority of the
time that is because the market went up, not due to expertise on the
part of the managers. If you hold them for many years, the fees take a >substantial part of your profit. And of course, you pay fees even in
years where there is no profit.
In wild times like the run-up to the 2009 crash, possibly less than one >percent of managers knew what was happening, the other 99% drove off the
cliff with the market. The failures were not punished (after all, who
could have predicted the crash except those who actually read the
subprime contracts?), while those who succeeded were not in general >rewarded, except by the investments they had personally made.
Hence my preference for index funds, which charge next to nothing.
Paul S Person <psperson@old.netcom.invalid> wrote:
On Mon, 5 Jan 2026 15:46:42 -0500, Cryptoengineer
<petertrei@gmail.com> wrote:
Every example he used to 'prove' it would work involved cherry picked >>>examples where the result had already occurred. Challenged to predict
an event that hadn't actually happened yet, he failed miserably.
This is why most modern "prophets" are very very vague, either about
what will happen or when it will happen (or both).
This is why the key is to be the prophet, and not the person who has to
act out on the prophecy.
When the market goes up, people buy, and the broker makes money. When
the market goes down, people sell, and the broker makes money. The sure
way to make money in the market is to be the broker.
On 2026-01-05 22:47:13 +0000, William Hyde said:
Cryptoengineer wrote:
On 1/4/2026 10:28 PM, Bobbie Sellers wrote:
On 1/4/26 18:15, Your Name wrote:
On 2026-01-05 02:00:17 +0000, danny burstein said:
In <10jf5km$2fqfq$1@dont-email.me> Lynn McGuire
<lynnmcguire5@gmail.com> writes:
Garfield: Predicting the future
https://www.gocomics.com/garfield/2026/01/03
Predicting the pizza delivery is the one exception to the Niels Bohr >>>>>>> law, the Nobel laureate in Physics and father of the atomic
model, who
is quoted as saying, "????Prediction is very difficult,
especially if it?›????s
about the future!"????.
https://blogs.cranfield.ac.uk/cbp/forecasting-prediction-is-very- >>>>>>> difficult-especially-if-its-about-the-future/
That phrase is also attributed to Yogi Berra of the NY Yankees.
And Samuel Goldwyn, Mark Twain, Robert Storm Petersen, and
Nostrdamus, among others.
The reality is that it is just an old Danish saying and nobody
knows the real origin. It also comes in different phrasings:
?ÿ?ÿ?ÿ It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the
future.
?ÿ?ÿ?ÿ Predictions are hazardous, especially about the future.
?ÿ?ÿ?ÿ It is hard to prophecy, particularly about the future.
?ÿ?ÿ?ÿ Itƒ??s [always] dangerous to prophesy, particularly about
the future.
?ÿ?ÿ?ÿ Never make forecasts, especially about the future.
<https://quoteinvestigator.com/2013/10/20/no-predict/>
The obvious solution is to predict the Past.?ÿ It is almost always
as accurate as you can get and is a very old literary device. Check
your Old Testament for many fine examples.
A few years ago we had a guy on here who did that. He claimed he was
about to become rich playing the stock market, using technical
analysis to predict short term changes (ie, he was like most "day
traders").
Every example he used to 'prove' it would work involved cherry picked
examples where the result had already occurred. Challenged to predict
an event that hadn't actually happened yet, he failed miserably.
If I'd known he was going to use "technical analysis" I could have
predicted that he'd lose money.
William Hyde
If I'd known he was going to be "playing the stock market", I could have predicted that he'd lose money. The stock market is an idiot's game for greedy fools who can afford to lose money.
On 1/5/2026 6:32 PM, Your Name wrote:
On 2026-01-05 22:47:13 +0000, William Hyde said:
Cryptoengineer wrote:
On 1/4/2026 10:28 PM, Bobbie Sellers wrote:
On 1/4/26 18:15, Your Name wrote:
On 2026-01-05 02:00:17 +0000, danny burstein said:
In <10jf5km$2fqfq$1@dont-email.me> Lynn McGuire
<lynnmcguire5@gmail.com> writes:
Garfield: Predicting the future
https://www.gocomics.com/garfield/2026/01/03
Predicting the pizza delivery is the one exception to the Niels Bohr >>>>>>>> law, the Nobel laureate in Physics and father of the atomic model, who
is quoted as saying, "????Prediction is very difficult, especially if >>>>>>>> it's about the future!"????.
https://blogs.cranfield.ac.uk/cbp/forecasting-prediction-is-very- >>>>>>>> difficult-especially-if-its-about-the-future/
That phrase is also attributed to Yogi Berra of the NY Yankees.
And Samuel Goldwyn, Mark Twain, Robert Storm Petersen, and Nostrdamus, >>>>>> among others.
The reality is that it is just an old Danish saying and nobody knows >>>>>> the real origin. It also comes in different phrasings:
?ÿ?ÿ?ÿ It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future. >>>>>> ?ÿ?ÿ?ÿ Predictions are hazardous, especially about the future.
?ÿ?ÿ?ÿ It is hard to prophecy, particularly about the future.
?ÿ?ÿ?ÿ Itƒ??s [always] dangerous to prophesy, particularly about the future.
?ÿ?ÿ?ÿ Never make forecasts, especially about the future.
<https://quoteinvestigator.com/2013/10/20/no-predict/>
The obvious solution is to predict the Past.?ÿ It is almost always as >>>>> accurate as you can get and is a very old literary device. Check your >>>>> Old Testament for many fine examples.
A few years ago we had a guy on here who did that. He claimed he was
about to become rich playing the stock market, using technical
analysis to predict short term changes (ie, he was like most "day
traders").
Every example he used to 'prove' it would work involved cherry picked
examples where the result had already occurred. Challenged to predict
an event that hadn't actually happened yet, he failed miserably.
If I'd known he was going to use "technical analysis" I could have
predicted that he'd lose money.
William Hyde
If I'd known he was going to be "playing the stock market", I could
have predicted that he'd lose money. The stock market is an idiot's
game for greedy fools who can afford to lose money.
Pretty much any 'get rich quick' scheme is going to be a problem. Get
rich slow does work, however.
My money is spread over dozens of stocks and funds, and is
professionally managed. Yes, they take their cut but its worth it.
One exception is my Apple stock which I bought in 1983 and held. My
cost basis there is 11 cents a share. Its appreciated more than
2000-fold since then.
I also have some Tesla stock. Its up only 5x since purchase, and I sold about 1/3 of it last summer when I was feeling particularly pissed off
with Elon.
pt
On 2026-01-07 18:29:53 +0000, Cryptoengineer said:
On 1/5/2026 6:32 PM, Your Name wrote:
On 2026-01-05 22:47:13 +0000, William Hyde said:
Cryptoengineer wrote:
On 1/4/2026 10:28 PM, Bobbie Sellers wrote:
On 1/4/26 18:15, Your Name wrote:
On 2026-01-05 02:00:17 +0000, danny burstein said:
In <10jf5km$2fqfq$1@dont-email.me> Lynn McGuireAnd Samuel Goldwyn, Mark Twain, Robert Storm Petersen, and
<lynnmcguire5@gmail.com> writes:
Garfield: Predicting the future
https://www.gocomics.com/garfield/2026/01/03
Predicting the pizza delivery is the one exception to the Niels >>>>>>>>> Bohr law, the Nobel laureate in Physics and father of the
atomic model, who is quoted as saying, "????Prediction is very >>>>>>>>> difficult, especially if it's about the future!"????.
https://blogs.cranfield.ac.uk/cbp/forecasting-prediction-is- >>>>>>>>> very- difficult-especially-if-its-about-the-future/
That phrase is also attributed to Yogi Berra of the NY Yankees. >>>>>>>
Nostrdamus, among others.
The reality is that it is just an old Danish saying and nobody
knows the real origin. It also comes in different phrasings:
?ÿ?ÿ?ÿ It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the >>>>>>> future.
?ÿ?ÿ?ÿ Predictions are hazardous, especially about the future.
?ÿ?ÿ?ÿ It is hard to prophecy, particularly about the future.
?ÿ?ÿ?ÿ Itƒ??s [always] dangerous to prophesy, particularly about >>>>>>> the future.
?ÿ?ÿ?ÿ Never make forecasts, especially about the future.
<https://quoteinvestigator.com/2013/10/20/no-predict/>
The obvious solution is to predict the Past.?ÿ It is almost always >>>>>> as accurate as you can get and is a very old literary device.
Check your Old Testament for many fine examples.
A few years ago we had a guy on here who did that. He claimed he was >>>>> about to become rich playing the stock market, using technical
analysis to predict short term changes (ie, he was like most "day
traders").
Every example he used to 'prove' it would work involved cherry picked >>>>> examples where the result had already occurred. Challenged to predict >>>>> an event that hadn't actually happened yet, he failed miserably.
If I'd known he was going to use "technical analysis" I could have
predicted that he'd lose money.
William Hyde
If I'd known he was going to be "playing the stock market", I could
have predicted that he'd lose money. The stock market is an idiot's
game for greedy fools who can afford to lose money.
Pretty much any 'get rich quick' scheme is going to be a problem. Get
rich slow does work, however.
My money is spread over dozens of stocks and funds, and is
professionally managed. Yes, they take their cut but its worth it.
One exception is my Apple stock which I bought in 1983 and held. My
cost basis there is 11 cents a share. Its appreciated more than 2000-
fold since then.
And if Apple had gone bankrupt, you would have lost that money.
I also have some Tesla stock. Its up only 5x since purchase, and I
sold about 1/3 of it last summer when I was feeling particularly
pissed off with Elon.
pt
And Elon Muskrat's lunacy is tanking Tesla sales and stock value, so
you're losing more and more money by the day. To get rid of them, you
would have to find someone insane enough to buy them off you.
Hence the idiocy of the share market, best left to fools who can afford
to lose money.
On 2026-01-07 18:29:53 +0000, Cryptoengineer said:snip
On 1/5/2026 6:32 PM, Your Name wrote:
If I'd known he was going to be "playing the stock market", I could
have predicted that he'd lose money. The stock market is an idiot's
game for greedy fools who can afford to lose money.
Pretty much any 'get rich quick' scheme is going to be a problem. Get
rich slow does work, however.
My money is spread over dozens of stocks and funds, and is
professionally managed. Yes, they take their cut but its worth it.
One exception is my Apple stock which I bought in 1983 and held. My
cost basis there is 11 cents a share. Its appreciated more than 2000-
fold since then.
And if Apple had gone bankrupt, you would have lost that money.
I also have some Tesla stock. Its up only 5x since purchase, and I
sold about 1/3 of it last summer when I was feeling particularly
pissed off with Elon.
pt
And Elon Muskrat's lunacy is tanking Tesla sales and stock value, so
you're losing more and more money by the day. To get rid of them, you
would have to find someone insane enough to buy them off you.
Hence the idiocy of the share market, best left to fools who can afford
to lose money.
On Tue, 6 Jan 2026 17:58:03 -0500, William Hyde <wthyde1953@gmail.com>
wrote:
Paul S Person wrote:
On Sun, 4 Jan 2026 21:26:12 -0800, Bobbie Sellers
<bliss-sf4ever@dslextreme.com> wrote:
On 1/4/26 21:18, Your Name wrote:
<snippo minor "cultured despiser" attack>
You don't need the mythical stories of the Bible. There are plenty of >>>>> actual "historic records" that are wrong - either because the person >>>>> writing it didn't know enough at the time or because they simply lied. >>>>>
Name another volume that people might be familiar with, please.
Well, I kind of suspect that Herodotus, the Father of History, never
actually saw the Ant-Men he wrote about.
And comparing his version of the Course of the Nile with reality
suggests he missed a turn somewhere in the Sudan, resulting in a Nile
that moves West directly below the Sahara instead of continuing on
South.
And Thucydides, in /The Peloponesian Wars/, explicitly states that all
those great speeches he gives were made up by him to suit the
situation.
According to M. I. Findlay, Thucydides claimed that he was not writing
history, but merely selecting episodes from this war as lessons for
future Athenian leaders. The speeches, presumably, illustrated the
points he hoped to make.
He even, at one point, expressed some contempt for pure historians.
Well, the online version at <https://www.gutenberg.org/cache/epub/7142/pg7142-images.html> has
this interesting quote toward the end of Book I Chapter 1:
"The absence of romance in my history will, I fear, detract somewhat
from its interest; but if it be judged useful by those inquirers who
desire an exact knowledge of the past as an aid to the interpretation
of the future, which in the course of human things must resemble if it
does not reflect it, I shall be content."
which does not sound like "selecting episodes"
history with romance.
On 1/7/2026 3:46 PM, Your Name wrote:
On 2026-01-07 18:29:53 +0000, Cryptoengineer said:
On 1/5/2026 6:32 PM, Your Name wrote:
On 2026-01-05 22:47:13 +0000, William Hyde said:
Cryptoengineer wrote:
On 1/4/2026 10:28 PM, Bobbie Sellers wrote:
On 1/4/26 18:15, Your Name wrote:
On 2026-01-05 02:00:17 +0000, danny burstein said:
In <10jf5km$2fqfq$1@dont-email.me> Lynn McGuireAnd Samuel Goldwyn, Mark Twain, Robert Storm Petersen, and Nostrdamus,
<lynnmcguire5@gmail.com> writes:
Garfield: Predicting the future
https://www.gocomics.com/garfield/2026/01/03
Predicting the pizza delivery is the one exception to the Niels Bohr
law, the Nobel laureate in Physics and father of the atomic model, who
is quoted as saying, "????Prediction is very difficult, especially >>>>>>>>>> if it's about the future!"????.
https://blogs.cranfield.ac.uk/cbp/forecasting-prediction-is- very- >>>>>>>>>> difficult-especially-if-its-about-the-future/
That phrase is also attributed to Yogi Berra of the NY Yankees. >>>>>>>>
among others.
The reality is that it is just an old Danish saying and nobody knows >>>>>>>> the real origin. It also comes in different phrasings:
?ÿ?ÿ?ÿ It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.
?ÿ?ÿ?ÿ Predictions are hazardous, especially about the future. >>>>>>>> ?ÿ?ÿ?ÿ It is hard to prophecy, particularly about the future.
?ÿ?ÿ?ÿ Itƒ??s [always] dangerous to prophesy, particularly
about the future.
?ÿ?ÿ?ÿ Never make forecasts, especially about the future.
<https://quoteinvestigator.com/2013/10/20/no-predict/>
The obvious solution is to predict the Past.?ÿ It is almost always as >>>>>>> accurate as you can get and is a very old literary device. Check your >>>>>>> Old Testament for many fine examples.
A few years ago we had a guy on here who did that. He claimed he was >>>>>> about to become rich playing the stock market, using technical
analysis to predict short term changes (ie, he was like most "day
traders").
Every example he used to 'prove' it would work involved cherry picked >>>>>> examples where the result had already occurred. Challenged to predict >>>>>> an event that hadn't actually happened yet, he failed miserably.
If I'd known he was going to use "technical analysis" I could have
predicted that he'd lose money.
William Hyde
If I'd known he was going to be "playing the stock market", I could
have predicted that he'd lose money. The stock market is an idiot's
game for greedy fools who can afford to lose money.
Pretty much any 'get rich quick' scheme is going to be a problem. Get
rich slow does work, however.
My money is spread over dozens of stocks and funds, and is
professionally managed. Yes, they take their cut but its worth it.
One exception is my Apple stock which I bought in 1983 and held. My
cost basis there is 11 cents a share. Its appreciated more than 2000-
fold since then.
And if Apple had gone bankrupt, you would have lost that money.
...and if I hadn't invested, I'd have almost nothing.
I also have some Tesla stock. Its up only 5x since purchase, and I sold >>> about 1/3 of it last summer when I was feeling particularly pissed off
with Elon.
pt
And Elon Muskrat's lunacy is tanking Tesla sales and stock value, so
you're losing more and more money by the day. To get rid of them, you
would have to find someone insane enough to buy them off you.
Hence the idiocy of the share market, best left to fools who can afford
to lose money.
Living a life without the tyranny of 'facts' must be nice.
Both stocks are trading near their all-time-highs.
pt
On 2026-01-08 02:56:09 +0000, Cryptoengineer said:
On 1/7/2026 3:46 PM, Your Name wrote:
On 2026-01-07 18:29:53 +0000, Cryptoengineer said:
On 1/5/2026 6:32 PM, Your Name wrote:
On 2026-01-05 22:47:13 +0000, William Hyde said:
Cryptoengineer wrote:
On 1/4/2026 10:28 PM, Bobbie Sellers wrote:
On 1/4/26 18:15, Your Name wrote:
On 2026-01-05 02:00:17 +0000, danny burstein said:
In <10jf5km$2fqfq$1@dont-email.me> Lynn McGuireAnd Samuel Goldwyn, Mark Twain, Robert Storm Petersen, and
<lynnmcguire5@gmail.com> writes:
Garfield: Predicting the future
https://www.gocomics.com/garfield/2026/01/03
Predicting the pizza delivery is the one exception to the Niels >>>>>>>>>> Bohr
law, the Nobel laureate in Physics and father of the atomic model,
who
is quoted as saying, "????Prediction is very difficult, >>>>>>>>>> especially
if it's about the future!"????.
https://blogs.cranfield.ac.uk/cbp/forecasting-prediction-is- very-
difficult-especially-if-its-about-the-future/
That phrase is also attributed to Yogi Berra of the NY Yankees. >>>>>>>>
Nostrdamus,
among others.
The reality is that it is just an old Danish saying and nobody knows
the real origin. It also comes in different phrasings:
?ÿ?ÿ?ÿ It is difficult to make predictions, especially about >>>>>>>> the future.
?ÿ?ÿ?ÿ Predictions are hazardous, especially about the future. >>>>>>>> ?ÿ?ÿ?ÿ It is hard to prophecy, particularly about the future. >>>>>>>> ?ÿ?ÿ?ÿ Itƒ??s [always] dangerous to prophesy,
particularly
about the future.
?ÿ?ÿ?ÿ Never make forecasts, especially about the future.
<https://quoteinvestigator.com/2013/10/20/no-predict/>
The obvious solution is to predict the Past.?ÿ It is almost always >>>>>>> as
accurate as you can get and is a very old literary device. Check your
Old Testament for many fine examples.
A few years ago we had a guy on here who did that. He claimed he was >>>>>> about to become rich playing the stock market, using technical
analysis to predict short term changes (ie, he was like most "day >>>>>> traders").
Every example he used to 'prove' it would work involved cherry picked >>>>>> examples where the result had already occurred. Challenged to predict >>>>>> an event that hadn't actually happened yet, he failed miserably.
If I'd known he was going to use "technical analysis" I could have >>>>> predicted that he'd lose money.
William Hyde
If I'd known he was going to be "playing the stock market", I could >>>> have predicted that he'd lose money. The stock market is an idiot's >>>> game for greedy fools who can afford to lose money.
Pretty much any 'get rich quick' scheme is going to be a problem. Get >>> rich slow does work, however.
My money is spread over dozens of stocks and funds, and is
professionally managed. Yes, they take their cut but its worth it.
One exception is my Apple stock which I bought in 1983 and held. My
cost basis there is 11 cents a share. Its appreciated more than 2000- >>> fold since then.
And if Apple had gone bankrupt, you would have lost that money.
...and if I hadn't invested, I'd have almost nothing.
If you'd put it into a proper, safer investment, you would have
something even if Apple had gone bankrupt.
I also have some Tesla stock. Its up only 5x since purchase, and I sold >>> about 1/3 of it last summer when I was feeling particularly pissed off >>> with Elon.
pt
And Elon Muskrat's lunacy is tanking Tesla sales and stock value, so
you're losing more and more money by the day. To get rid of them, you
would have to find someone insane enough to buy them off you.
Hence the idiocy of the share market, best left to fools who can afford >> to lose money.
In article <10jnf50$18glp$1@dont-email.me>,
Your Name <YourName@YourISP.com> wrote:
On 2026-01-08 02:56:09 +0000, Cryptoengineer said:
On 1/7/2026 3:46 PM, Your Name wrote:
On 2026-01-07 18:29:53 +0000, Cryptoengineer said:
On 1/5/2026 6:32 PM, Your Name wrote:
On 2026-01-05 22:47:13 +0000, William Hyde said:
Cryptoengineer wrote:
On 1/4/2026 10:28 PM, Bobbie Sellers wrote:If I'd known he was going to use "technical analysis" I could have >>>>>>> predicted that he'd lose money.
On 1/4/26 18:15, Your Name wrote:
On 2026-01-05 02:00:17 +0000, danny burstein said:
In <10jf5km$2fqfq$1@dont-email.me> Lynn McGuireAnd Samuel Goldwyn, Mark Twain, Robert Storm Petersen, and >>>>>>>>>> Nostrdamus,
<lynnmcguire5@gmail.com> writes:
Garfield: Predicting the future
https://www.gocomics.com/garfield/2026/01/03
Predicting the pizza delivery is the one exception to the Niels >>>>>>>>>>>> Bohr
law, the Nobel laureate in Physics and father of the atomic model, >>>>>>>>>>>> who
is quoted as saying, "????ª????Prediction is very difficult, >>>>>>>>>>>> especially
if it's about the future!"????ª????.
https://blogs.cranfield.ac.uk/cbp/forecasting-prediction-is- very- >>>>>>>>>>>> difficult-especially-if-its-about-the-future/
That phrase is also attributed to Yogi Berra of the NY Yankees. >>>>>>>>>>
among others.
The reality is that it is just an old Danish saying and nobody knows >>>>>>>>>> the real origin. It also comes in different phrasings:
???ÿ???ÿ???ÿ It is difficult to make predictions, especially about >>>>>>>>>> the future.
???ÿ???ÿ???ÿ Predictions are hazardous, especially about the future. >>>>>>>>>> ???ÿ???ÿ???ÿ It is hard to prophecy, particularly about the future. >>>>>>>>>> ???ÿ???ÿ???ÿ It????ª???s [always] dangerous to prophesy,
particularly
about the future.
???ÿ???ÿ???ÿ Never make forecasts, especially about the future. >>>>>>>>>> <https://quoteinvestigator.com/2013/10/20/no-predict/>
The obvious solution is to predict the Past.???ÿ It is almost always >>>>>>>>> as
accurate as you can get and is a very old literary device. Check your >>>>>>>>> Old Testament for many fine examples.
A few years ago we had a guy on here who did that. He claimed he was >>>>>>>> about to become rich playing the stock market, using technical >>>>>>>> analysis to predict short term changes (ie, he was like most "day >>>>>>>> traders").
Every example he used to 'prove' it would work involved cherry picked >>>>>>>> examples where the result had already occurred. Challenged to predict >>>>>>>> an event that hadn't actually happened yet, he failed miserably. >>>>>>>
William Hyde
If I'd known he was going to be "playing the stock market", I could >>>>>> have predicted that he'd lose money. The stock market is an idiot's >>>>>> game for greedy fools who can afford to lose money.
Pretty much any 'get rich quick' scheme is going to be a problem. Get >>>>> rich slow does work, however.
My money is spread over dozens of stocks and funds, and is
professionally managed. Yes, they take their cut but its worth it.
One exception is my Apple stock which I bought in 1983 and held. My
cost basis there is 11 cents a share. Its appreciated more than 2000- >>>>> fold since then.
And if Apple had gone bankrupt, you would have lost that money.
...and if I hadn't invested, I'd have almost nothing.
If you'd put it into a proper, safer investment, you would have
something even if Apple had gone bankrupt.
Meanwhile, Apple is paying a dividend of, if I read the chart correctly, about $1 a share, which is 9 times greater than his cost basis per
share. That is a yearly return that is probably greater than the total
value of a proper, safer investment.
I also have some Tesla stock. Its up only 5x since purchase, and I sold >>>>> about 1/3 of it last summer when I was feeling particularly pissed off >>>>> with Elon.
pt
And Elon Muskrat's lunacy is tanking Tesla sales and stock value, so
you're losing more and more money by the day. To get rid of them, you
would have to find someone insane enough to buy them off you.
Hence the idiocy of the share market, best left to fools who can afford >>>> to lose money.
The Tesla stock is up 5 times since purchase; he sold a third. There is
a good chance that he has recovered his initial investment (perhaps with
a significant profit). The value of the remaining stock is gravy.
On 1/8/2026 12:57 AM, Robert Woodward wrote:<snip>
In article <10jnf50$18glp$1@dont-email.me>,
Your Name <YourName@YourISP.com> wrote:
On 2026-01-08 02:56:09 +0000, Cryptoengineer said:
Meanwhile, Apple is paying a dividend of, if I read the chart correctly,
And if Apple had gone bankrupt, you would have lost that money.
...and if I hadn't invested, I'd have almost nothing.
If you'd put it into a proper, safer investment, you would have
something even if Apple had gone bankrupt.
about $1 a share, which is 9 times greater than his cost basis per
share. That is a yearly return that is probably greater than the total
value of a proper, safer investment.
APPL is hardly a risky investment. Its a long standing stable company,
with world class products.
What was risky was that until a few years
ago, it was a disproportionate chunk of my value. I just let it ride
for decades, and 2000 fold growth will unbalance things for anyone.
However, its never been the majority of my portfolio.
TSLA is a lot more risky; if Elon fell under a bus, it would tank. But
at the moment, I'm already in the black, since I sold a chunk for more
than my initial investment, and am now playing with 'house money'. Even
if Tesla went Chapter 11, I'd still be ahead.
The TSLA stock is in my 'fun account', where I take a lot of risks. Some
pay off, some don't (net positive to date - fingers crossed). Even if
that account got zeroed out, I'd be fine.
In October of 2010 I was on salary continuance after my position atOn Tue, 6 Jan 2026 12:32:37 +1300, Your Name <YourName@YourISP.com>
wrote:
If I'd known he was going to be "playing the stock market", I could
have predicted that he'd lose money. The stock market is an idiot's
game for greedy fools who can afford to lose money.
Buy a broad index, and wait.ÿ This strategy has worked now for about a century and a half.ÿ Mind you, it was not easy to do before cheap index funds were introduced in the early 1970s on the recommendation of a
scholar of the markets.
On 1/6/2026 6:22 PM, William Hyde wrote:
On Tue, 6 Jan 2026 12:32:37 +1300, Your Name <YourName@YourISP.com>
wrote:
In October of 2010 I was on salary continuance after my position atIf I'd known he was going to be "playing the stock market", I could
have predicted that he'd lose money. The stock market is an idiot's
game for greedy fools who can afford to lose money.
Buy a broad index, and wait.ÿ This strategy has worked now for about a
century and a half.ÿ Mind you, it was not easy to do before cheap
index funds were introduced in the early 1970s on the recommendation
of a scholar of the markets.
Xerox was eliminated. It would run out at yearend, when I would have met
the years-of-service and age to take my full defined benefit pension as
a lump sum.ÿ Since the local labor market was saturated with xerographic physicists and engineers, and I also had a significant 401(k), I was thinking about looking for an investment advisor.ÿ A chance conversation
at an out-of-state wedding pointed me to /Unconventional Success: A Fundamental Approach to Personal Investment/ by David F. Swensen, which recommended a diverse collection of index funds and a "trade only to rebalance" strategy.
So I dumped the idea of paying an advisor and looked for low-cost index funds.ÿ /The Investor's Manifesto: Preparing for Prosperity, Armageddon,
and Everything in Between/ by William J. Bernstein provided detailed and reasonably current (at the time) sample portfolios for several different situations; I picked one (50/50 bonds/stocks), tweaked it a bit, and
have made only one significant change to my holdings since.ÿ Return over
15 years, corrected for withdrawals - I *am* retired after all - has
been 140%; Vanguard overhead is almost negligible.ÿ Best advice I ever got.
The stock market is an idiot's game for greedy fools who can afford
to lose money.
Wasn't there an amusing episode when some non-rich folks managed to do
this a while back? Not so amusing to the rich, of course.
On Wed, 07 Jan 2026 09:27:27 -0800, Paul S Person wrote:
Wasn't there an amusing episode when some non-rich folks managed to do
this a while back? Not so amusing to the rich, of course.
Was that the GameStop saga?
On Tue, 6 Jan 2026 12:32:37 +1300, Your Name wrote:
The stock market is an idiot's game for greedy fools who can afford
to lose money.
The most reliable way to make money on the stock market is to buy some
shares across a mix of companies, then forget about them for a few
years.
Lawrence =?iso-8859-13?q?D=FFOliveiro?= <ldo@nz.invalid> writes:
On Tue, 6 Jan 2026 12:32:37 +1300, Your Name wrote:
The stock market is an idiot's game for greedy fools who can afford
to lose money.
The most reliable way to make money on the stock market is to buy some
shares across a mix of companies, then forget about them for a few
years.
The most reliable way to make money on the stock market is to
ignore any advice from the internet.
On 2026-01-16 16:37:11 +0000, Scott Lurndal said:
The most reliable way to make money on the stock market is to
ignore any advice from the internet.
The only reliable way to make money on the stock market is to invest in
a normal bank term deposit or savings account with a guaranteed (short
of the bak going bankrupt) positive interest rate - let the bank put
that in the stock market and take all the risk.
On 2026-01-16 16:37:11 +0000, Scott Lurndal said:
Lawrence =?iso-8859-13?q?D=FFOliveiro?= <ldo@nz.invalid> writes:
On Tue, 6 Jan 2026 12:32:37 +1300, Your Name wrote:
The stock market is an idiot's game for greedy fools who can afford
to lose money.
The most reliable way to make money on the stock market is to buy some
shares across a mix of companies, then forget about them for a few
years.
The most reliable way to make money on the stock market is to
ignore any advice from the internet.
The only reliable way to make money on the stock market is to invest in
a normal bank term deposit or savings account with a guaranteed (short
of the bak going bankrupt) positive interest rate - let the bank put
that in the stock market and take all the risk.
|Five Jim Davises - creator of that unfunny cartoon cat,
|where 20% of the jokes are about how Monday sucks and the
|rest are about how much the cat likes lasagna (and those are
|the punchlines!) . . . five Jim Davises could spend the rest
|of their lives writing comedy and never, ever produce the
|"Soup Nazi" episode of Seinfeld.
|
Joel Spolsky (2005).
Rule 6. As much as possible, confine your purchases to stocks that
pay a dividend (but not too high a one, that is a danger sign). This
is a personal rule that many would not agree with.
One of the first books I read on investing was called "Wiped Out", by a
man who in two or three years turned a 60k inheritance into about three >hundred dollars, in the boom market of the early 60s. He did this with >professional help.
Then there was the experience of Isaac Asimov, who turned over 10k,
again in the early 60s, to two "financial advisors", who soon turned it
into $6500.
On Fri, 16 Jan 2026 18:18:20 -0500, William Hyde wrote:
Rule 6. As much as possible, confine your purchases to stocks that
pay a dividend (but not too high a one, that is a danger sign). This
is a personal rule that many would not agree with.
Some background knowledge of the industry in question can be helpful.
For example, among computing-related companies, Microsoft didn?t pay
any dividends for about the first 15 years after it went public -- it
didn?t need to, because as a ?growth stock?, increases in the value of
the shares were enough to keep shareholders happy.
Lawrence D?Oliveiro wrote:
On Fri, 16 Jan 2026 18:18:20 -0500, William Hyde wrote:Quite right - this is a personal rule.ÿ But it is one followed by many successful investors.ÿ It also tends to involve a lower frequency of trading, which saves money but does not make it popular with financial advisors as the business profits from trades.
Rule 6. As much as possible, confine your purchases to stocks that
pay a dividend (but not too high a one, that is a danger sign). This
is a personal rule that many would not agree with.
Some background knowledge of the industry in question can be helpful.
For example, among computing-related companies, Microsoft didn?t pay
any dividends for about the first 15 years after it went public -- it
didn?t need to, because as a ?growth stock?, increases in the value of
the shares were enough to keep shareholders happy.
I tend to avoid growth stocks because I am not good at picking them. The press loves stories like that of Amazon, Microsoft, Subaru, and so on.
But a fair number of growth stories turn rapidly to shrinking stories,
and yesterday's darlings like Yahoo, Nortel, and so on become today's dogs.
Turnaround stocks are also very difficult to call.ÿ For every Chrysler
out there there are a dozen turnarounds that didn't work.ÿ Nortel again,
for example.
Peter Lynch or Jeff Vinik can judge these things. I cannot.
I prefer a safety net, and the commitment to have enough cash to meet a dividend is such a net, if not an infallible one. It keeps management focused.
The shysters do know that there are people with my attitude, so fake dividend stories have been concocted, with dividends paid from borrowed money, often fraudulently described.ÿ Even staid utilities can go bad
this way, as did Tucson electric power circa 1990. A common symptom of
this is a very high dividend, which as I said should be seen as a
warning sign.
William Hyde
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