Subject: Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 01 - 07 August 2022

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2022 Aug 08 0224 UTC
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# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
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Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
01 - 07 August 2022

Solar activity was at very low to low levels. C-class flares were
observed on 02-03 Aug, 05 Aug, and 07 Aug. The largest was a C6/1b
flare at 03/1708 UTC from Region 3068 (S15, L=210,
class/area=Dso/210 on 05 Aug). The region was the most complex of
the 12 numbered active regions over the past week. A Type II radio
sweep (Est. 163 km/s) was associated with the event but no
discernable ejecta was identified in subsequent coronagraph imagery.
Two other Type II radio sweeps were observed during the week, one at
05/0657 UTC and another at 07/0226 UTC. Analysis of both events did
not suggest Earth-directed ejecta was present.

Other activity included an approximate 30 degree filament eruption
centered near N01E25 that began after 07/1749 UTC. Further
coronagraph imagery is need to determine if there is a CME
associated with the event.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G2 (Moderate)
geomagnetic storm levels. Unsettled levels over 01-03 Aug and 05 Aug
appear to be associated with influence from negative polarity CH
HSSs. G2 conditions were reached at the end of the day on 07 Aug and
were associated with the onset of influence from a SSBC followed by
a positive polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength reached as
high as 14 nT at 07/2230 UTC. The Bz component was mostly oriented
southward over 07 Aug, reaching as far south as -13 nT at 07/2227
UTC. Solar wind speeds increased over 07 Aug from ~420 km/s to
occasionally over 600 km/s after 07/2230 UTC.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
08 August - 03 September 2022

Solar activity is expected to be low or very low during the outlook
period. There are currently no significantly complex regions on the
visible disk that suggest elevated potential of R1 (Minor) or
greater radio blackouts.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reach moderate or high levels. High levels are
anticipated over 09-16 Aug and 18-14 Aug. Elevated levels are in
response to influence from multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. The
remainder of the outlook period is expected to reach moderate
levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G1
(Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. G1 conditions are likely on 08 Aug
and 17 Aug; active conditions are likely on 09 Aug, 18-19 Aug, 27
Aug, and 03 Sep; unsettled conditions are likely on 10-11 Aug, 20
Aug, and 28-30 Aug. Elevated levels of geomagnetic activity are
anticipated in response to multiple, recurrent, CH HSSs. The
remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at quiet levels.


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* Origin: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (3:633/280.2@fidonet)