Subject: Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 08 - 14 January 2024

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2024 Jan 15 0608 UTC
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# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
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Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
08 - 14 January 2024

Solar activity was at low levels on 08-09 Jan, reached moderate
levels on 10-12 Jan, and returned back to low levels on 13-14 Jan.
Multiple M1 flares (R1/Minor) occurred on 10-12 Jan from Regions
3538 (N20, L=176, class/area Cai/080 on 09 Jan), 3539 (N10, L=139,
class/area Dai/230 on 11 Jan), and 3547 (N19, L=064, class/area
Cso/050 on 12 Jan). Two CMEs were modelled over the period from
09-10 Jan with potential for grazing blows. The first was an
approximate 50 degree filament eruption centered near S42E43 that
began after 09/1400 UTC. An associated CME was observed off the SE
limb beginning at 09/1536 UTC. Modelling of the event showed a
potential grazing late on 13 Jan. The second event was associated
with a C6.5 flare at 10/1907 UTC from Region 3536 (N06, L=151,
class/area Eko/250 on 03 Jan). A subsequent CME was observed off the
W limb at 10/1924 UTC. Modelling indicated the potential for a
grazing late on 14 Jan.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was
normal to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet with an isolated
unsettled period on 09 Jan. Solar wind parameters were near nominal
levels throughout with slightly increased total field measurements
between 08/1650-11/0100 UTC and between 14/0315-14/2100 UTC. Solar
wind speed showed an increase from 300 km/s to near 470 km/s between 08/0000-11/2200 UTC. Afterward, speed, temperature, and density
values appeared to be suspect due to low densities in the solar
wind. A comparison with the University of Maryland
SOHO/CELIAS/MTOF/PM appeared to show a drop in solar wind speed
starting late on 11 Jan.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
15 January - 10 February 2024

Solar activity is expected to be primarily at low levels with a
chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares on 15 Jan-10 Feb.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 15 Jan-10 Feb.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled levels
with a chance for isolated active periods on 16-18 Jan and again on
28-30 Jan due to recurrent CH HSS activity.


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* Origin: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (3:633/280.2@fidonet)