Subject: Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 15 - 21 January 2024

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2024 Jan 22 0515 UTC
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# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
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Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
15 - 21 January 2024

Solar activity was at low levels throughout. The largest flare was a
C6.7 at 21/1935 UTC from Region 3561. Moderate development occurred
in Region 3561 beginning on 21 Jan, however the spot group maintains
a simple beta magnetic configuration. Region 3559 (N27, L=289,
class/area Fkc/300 on 21 Jan) exhibited rapid growth and development
since 20 Jan and is now classified as an Fkc spot group with
beta-gamma magnetic characteristics.

Other activity included several filament eruptions. The first was a
complex filament eruption centered near S15E22 that began around
20/0848 UTC. The subsequent CMEs were first visible at 20/0912 UTC
in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery. The CME appeared to have three fronts; to
the east, southeast, and south-southwest. Modeling indicated a CME
passage reaching Earth mid to late on 22 Jan. Two other filament
eruptions occurred with a potential for a glancing blow. The first
occurred at 21/0000 UTC centered near N23E40. An associated CME was
observed off the ENE limb at 21/0024 UTC. The second was a CME off
the SE limb at 21/1636 UTC, possibly associated with a filament
eruption near S30E50. Initial modelling indicated the potential for
a glancing blow early on 24 Jan, however analysis is still in
progress.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to unsettled levels.
Solar wind speed and temperature values were not accurate through
late on 16 Jan due to known instrument limitations during low
densities. Estimates of solar wind speed were likely in the upper
400 km/s range. Solar wind speed declined to nominal levels on 17
Jan followed by a brief increase to 490 km/s on 19 Jan. Total field
ranged from 2 nT to 9 nT. Isolated unsettled periods were observed
on 16, 19, and 21 Jan.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
22 January - 17 February 2024

Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) levels on 22-29 Jan due primarily to the
flare potential of Region 3559. Low levels with a chance for M-class
flares is expected on 30 Jan-10 Feb. An increased chance for
moderate levels is possible once again on 11-17 Feb as Region 3559
rotates back onto the visible disk.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. A minor
enhancement below S1 (Minor) threshold is in progress and likely to
continue until the arrival of the 20 Jan CME.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reach high levels on 24-27 Jan due to CME influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate)
levels on 22-23 Jan due to the arrival of the 20 Jan CME. Unsettled
to active conditions are likely on 24 Jan with the potential
glancing blow from the 21 Jan CMEs. Unsettled levels are expected on
29-31 Jan and again on 17 Feb due to recurrent CH HSS activity.


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* Origin: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (3:633/280.2@fidonet)