1. Forum
  2. Fidonet
  3. REC.RADIO.AMATEUR.SPACE

  • Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 29 January - 04 Fe

    From SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov@3:633/280.2 to All on Tue Feb 6 05:00:11 2024
    Subject: Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 29 January - 04 February 2024

    :Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    :Issued: 2024 Feb 05 0250 UTC
    # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
    # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
    # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
    #
    # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    #
    Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    29 January - 04 February 2024

    Solar activity was at low to high levels this period. High levels
    were observed on 29 Jan when Region 3559 (N27, L=288, class/area
    Fki/520 on 23 Jan) produced an M6.8/Sf at 29/0438 UTC with an
    associated Type II Sweep (512 km/s) and a 2,700 sfu tenflare.
    Assocated with this event was a partial-halo CME that was determined
    to pass ahead of Earth. Low activity levels were observed on 30-31
    Jan and 01 Feb. On 01 Feb, Region 3773 (N23, L=158, class/area
    Cso/040 on 02 Feb) produced a long-duration C3.0 flare at 01/0743
    UTC was an associated CME that was determined to produce a glacing
    blow at Earth late on 04 Feb to early on 05 Feb.

    Moderate levels were observed on 02 Feb when Region 3771 (S17,
    L=104, class/area Cso/130 on 04 Feb) produced an M1.1 flare at
    02/0301 UTC with an associated Type II sweep (1,444 km/s). 03 Feb
    experienced low levels. High levels were observed on 04 Feb when
    Regions 3576 (S16, L=055, class/area Ekc/700 on 04 Feb) produced 6
    M-class flares and Region 3559 produced a lone M-class flare. The
    largest of these flares was an M2.7 at 04/2234 UTC produced by 3576.

    A 10 Mev proton event was observed at geosynchronous orbit on 29-30
    Jan due to the M6.8/Sf flare from Region 3559. The event began at
    29/0615 UTC, peaked at 137 pfu at 29/1805 UTC and ended at 30/0425
    UTC.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
    low to moderate levels.

    Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet through the period.
    Isolated unsettled levels were observed on 29 and 30 Jan and again
    late on 04 Feb.

    Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    05 February - 02 March 2024

    Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels on 05-16
    Feb due primarily to the flare history and potential of Region 3776
    and the return of old Region 3559. Low levels are expected on 17-23
    Feb. An increased chance for moderate levels are possible on 24-29
    Feb and 01-02 Mar as old Regions 3359 and 3776 rotate back onto the
    visible disk.

    No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
    expected to be at low to moderate levels.

    Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at active to G1 (minor)
    levels on 05 Feb due to combined CME and positive polarity CH HSS
    effects. Unsettled levels are expected on 06 Feb due to positive
    polarity CH HSS effects. Mostly quiet levels are expected on 07-25
    Feb and 28-29 Feb and 01-02 Mar. Unsettled levels are expected on
    26-27 Feb due to negative polarity CH HSS effects.


    --- MBSE BBS v1.0.8.4 (Linux-x86_64)
    * Origin: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (3:633/280.2@fidonet)