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  • Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 11 - 17 November 2

    From SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov@3:633/280.2 to All on Tue Nov 19 05:00:08 2024
    Subject: Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 11 - 17 November 2024

    :Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    :Issued: 2024 Nov 18 0220 UTC
    # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
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    # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
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    Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    11 - 17 November 2024

    Solar activity ranged from low to moderate levels this period. R1
    (Minor) radio blackouts were observed on 11 Nov, 13 Nov and 15-16
    Nov. Regions 3889 (S09, L=006, class/area Fki/540 on 15 Nov) and
    3893 (S19, L=289, class/area Cso/050 on 15 Nov) produced a majority
    of the activity this period. The largest flare of the period was an
    M1.7 event observed on 13/1708 UTC from Region 3889. During the
    period, a total of 33 C-class and 7 M-class flares were observed.

    No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
    normal to moderate levels.

    Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels.
    Unsettled to active levels were observed on 11 Nov and 13-17 Nov,
    all associated with positive polarity coronal hole high speed
    streams (CH HSSs). During the period, solar wind parameters were at
    mostly nominal levels through early on 14 Nov. Early on 14 Nov,
    total field increased to 14 nT, while the Bz component dropped to
    -13 nT. Wind speeds increased from about 305 km/s to a peak of about
    460 km/s by late on 15 Nov. Wind speeds ended the period near 310
    km/s. The phi angle was in a predominately positive sector
    throughout the period.

    Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    18 November - 14 December 2024

    Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels (R1/R2 - Minor/Moderate), with a chance for high levels (R3 - Strong) from 18
    Nov - 14 Dec. The disk is expected to feature numerous complex
    regions throughout the outlook period.

    No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. However,
    there is a chance for proton activity following significant solar
    flare activity during the outlook period.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
    expected to be at normal to moderate levels.

    Geomagnetic field activity is likely to be at unsettled to active
    periods on 18 Nov, 20 Nov, 25-27 Nov, 30 Nov-03 Dec, 06-08 Dec and
    11-14 Dec, all due to the influence from recurrent CH HSS effects.
    Mostly quiet periods are likely on 19 Nov, 21-24 Nov, 28-29 Nov,
    04-05 Dec and 09-10 Dec.


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    * Origin: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (3:633/280.2@fidonet)