Subject: Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 09 - 15 December 2024

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2024 Dec 16 0207 UTC
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# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
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Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
09 - 15 December 2024

Solar activity was at Low levels on 09 and 14 Dec, Moderate
(R1-Minor) levels on 11-13, and 15 Dec, and High (R2-Moderate)
levels on 10 Dec. Region 3922 (S18, L=292, class/area Cso/50 on 11
Dec) was responsible for the majority of the M-flare activity this
period, producing seven total with the largest being an M6.3 flare
at 10/0648 UTC. Region 3912 (S06, L=81, class/area Dai/220 on 09
Dec) added an M6.7, the largest flare of the period, at 11/1549 UTC.
Region 3917 (S08, L=009, class/area Dkc/290 on 12 Dec) and Region
3920 (N23, L=330, class/area Eki/260 on 13 Dec) each added a couple
of M-class flares as well. During the period there were a total of
106 C-class flares and 12 M-class flares. Multiple CMEs were
observed in LASCO coronagraph imagery, with all front-sided events
being deemed near-misses.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels on 09-11 Dec and 13-15 Dec, and reached
High levels on 12 Dec.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels during
the period. Positive polarity CH HSS influence prompted conditions
to reach active levels on 09 and 14 Dec, while mostly quiet to
unsettled conditions dominated 10-13 and 15 Dec.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
16 December - 11 January 2025

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with an increasing
chance for moderate (R1/R2-Minor/Moderate) levels and a slight
chance for high (R3-high) levels as several magnetically complex
regions return the latter half of the period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit, barring
significant flare activity.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be low to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be mostly quiet for 16 Dec
- 04 Jan with no recurrent coronal holes expected to return.
Isolated unsettled to active periods are possible on 05-06 Jan with
a recurrent CH HSS. A return to quiet levels is expected on 07-09
Jan before another recurrent CH is expected to move into a
geoeffective position for 10-11 Jan. Isolated active to G1 (Minor)
storm levels could be reached with any unforeseen CME activity.


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* Origin: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (3:633/280.2@fidonet)