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  • Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 16 - 22 January 20

    From SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov@3:633/280.2 to All on Tue Jan 24 05:00:10 2023
    Subject: Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 16 - 22 January 2023

    :Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    :Issued: 2023 Jan 23 0145 UTC
    # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
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    # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
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    Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    16 - 22 January 2023

    Solar activity was high. Region 3190 (S15, L=119, class/area,
    Eki/950 on 18 Jan) produced dual M1.8 flares at 17/2329 UTC and
    18/1035 UTC. These flares tied for the largest of the period. Region
    3190 also produced an M1.1 flare at 22/1226 UTC. Region 3196 (N12,
    L=084, class/area, Dro/30 on 18 Jan) provided an M1.1/Sf flare at
    19/0403 UTC; an M1.7 flare at 19/1012 UTC; and an M1.0/Sf flare at
    19/1027 UTC. The only other M-class producing region was Region 3194
    (S24, L=132, class/area, Dai/130 on 22 Jan) with an M1.6/1b flare at
    22/1702 UTC. There was a combined total of seven M-class flares
    during the period, all at the R1 (Minor) level, and none with
    significant radio signatures.

    No reportable proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit,
    however, 10 MeV proton flux became enhanced, reaching a peak flux of
    1.01 pfu at 20/1425 UTC. The source of this slight flux increase was
    believed to be a C-class event from Region 3190.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
    moderate levels throughout the reporting period.

    Geomagnetic field activity ranged between quiet and active levels.
    Active conditions were observed on 16-18 Jan, in response to
    combined influence of the 11 Jan CME and a recurrent,
    positive-polarity CH HSS. Active conditions were also observed on 21
    Jan in response to an additional positive-polarity CH HSS. Quiet to
    unsettled conditions were observed during the remainder of the
    period.

    Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    23 January - 18 February 2023

    Solar activity is likely to remain at moderate to high levels
    throughout the outlook period due to numerous, existing and
    returning M and X-class flare producing regions.

    There is a slight chance for proton events at geosynchronous orbit,
    during the outlook period, due to the magnetic complexity and flare
    history of the abundant sunspot groups.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
    expected to be at high levels on 24-30 Jan in response to recurrent
    CH HSS influence. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to
    be at moderate levels.

    Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to active
    levels. Active conditions are likely on 23-25 Jan and 01, 07-10 Feb;
    unsettled levels are likely on 26-29 Jan, and 02, 12-13, 18 Feb.
    Increased geomagnetic activity is in response to multiple, recurrent
    CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be
    mostly quiet.


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    * Origin: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (3:633/280.2@fidonet)