Subject: Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 27 February - 05 March 2023

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2023 Mar 06 0303 UTC
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# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
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Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
27 February - 05 March 2023

Solar activity reached very high levels this week. In total, one R3
(Strong) event, three R2 (Moderate) events, and eight R1 (Minor)
events were observed. The largest event of the period was an X2/1b
flare at 03/1752 UTC from Region 3234 (N25, L=346,
class/area=Fkc/860 on 28 Feb). Region 3234 was the most active
sunspot region throughout the week, and in addition to the X-flare,
3234 also produced an M8 flare at 28/1750 UTC, an M5 flare at
04/1557 UTC, an M3 flare at 02/2116 UTC, and an M3/1f flare at
03/1032 UTC. Region 3243 (N18, L=306, class/area=Dao/110 on 05 Mar)
produced an M5 flare at 05/2136 UTC and an M1/Sn flare at 04/0710
UTC. No Earth-directed CMEs resulted from this periods flare
activity.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was
normal to moderate on 27 Feb, and high on 28 Feb-05 Mar.

Geomagnetic field activity reached G3 (Strong) storm levels on 27
Feb, and G2 (Moderate) levels on 28 Feb, due to a combination of CME
effects (25 Feb CME) and negative polarity CH HSS influences.
Negative polarity CH HSS influences persisted over 01-05 Mar, with
quiet to unsettled levels observed on 01 Mar and active conditions
registered on 02-05 Mar.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
06 March - 01 April 2023

Solar activity is expected to reach moderate to high levels
throughout the outlook period. Multiple recurrent active regions
with significant flare histories are expected to transit the solar
disk this period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit, barring
significant flare activity.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reach high levels on 06-13 Mar and 27 Mar-01 Apr. Normal
to moderate levels are expected over 14-26 Mar.

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) storm
levels on 06, 26, and 30 Mar and active levels on 07, 15, 20, 25,
27, 31 Mar, and 01 Apr, in response to multiple recurrent CH HSS
features. Quiet and quiet to unsettled levels are expected to
persist throughout the remainder of the outlook period.


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* Origin: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (3:633/280.2@fidonet)