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  • Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 08 - 14 May 2023

    From SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov@3:633/280.2 to All on Tue May 16 03:00:11 2023
    :Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    :Issued: 2023 May 15 0254 UTC
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    # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
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    Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    08 - 14 May 2023

    Solar activity reached high levels on 09 May and moderate levels on
    08, 10, and 11 May. In total, nine M-class flares were observed from
    three sunspot regions this period. Region 3296 (N15, L=140,
    class/area=Ekc/290 on 10 May) was the most active sunspot region and
    produced two R2 (Moderate) events and four R1 (Minor) events. Region
    3294 (S07, L=125, class/area=Cso/130 on 11 May) produced two R1
    events and Region 3293 (N13, L=149, class/area=Dhc/290 on 03 May)
    produced a single R1 event. Two solar energetic particle (SEP)
    events associated with this weeks activity were observed as were
    multiple Earth-directed CMEs; see below for more information.

    The greater than 10 MeV proton flux reached S1 (Minor) storm levels
    in two distinct SEP events. The first SEP event followed a pair of long-duration M1 flares (at 07/2234 UTC and 07/2323 UTC) from Region
    3296 and reached S1 levels at 08/1240 UTC, reached a peak of 38 pfu
    at 09/0150 UTC, and ended at 09/1235 UTC. The second SEP event
    followed an M4 flare at 09/1858 UTC from Region 3296 and reached S1
    levels at 09/2335 UTC, reached a peak of 83 pfu at 10/1250 UTC, and
    ended at 11/0405 UTC.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
    normal to moderate levels throughout the week.

    Geomagnetic field activity reached G1 (Minor) levels on 08 May due
    to the continued (at the time) influence of CMEs (from 05 May) that
    arrived on 07 May. G1 (Minor) storms were observed again on 09-10
    May due to the arrival of CMEs that resulted from a pair of
    long-duration M1 flares (at 07/2234 UTC and 07/2323 UTC) from Region
    3296. G1 (Minor) storms were observed on 12 May due to the arrival
    of a CME that resulted from an M4 flare at 09/1858 UTC from Region
    3296.

    Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    15 May - 10 June 2023

    Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate throughout the
    outlook period.

    No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
    expected to reach high levels on 23 May-02 Jun, with normal to
    moderate levels expected for the remainder of the period.

    Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach active levels on 16
    May due to the anticipated arrival of a CME from 12 May. G1 (Minor)
    storms are likely on 24 May, with active levels likely on 23, 25-26
    May, due to recurrent negative polarity CH HSS influences. Active
    conditions are likely on 02 Jun in response to recurrent positive
    polarity CH HSS influences. Quiet and quiet to unsettled conditions
    are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the outlook
    period.


    --- MBSE BBS v1.0.8 (Linux-x86_64)
    * Origin: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (3:633/280.2@fidonet)