1. Forum
  2. Fidonet
  3. REC.RADIO.AMATEUR.SPACE

  • Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 14 - 20 August 202

    From SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov@3:633/280.2 to All on Tue Aug 22 03:00:12 2023
    Subject: Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 14 - 20 August 2023

    :Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    :Issued: 2023 Aug 21 0150 UTC
    # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
    # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
    # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
    #
    # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    #
    Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    14 - 20 August 2023

    Solar activity was at low levels with only C-class flares. The
    largest of these C-class flares was a C8.9 that occurred on 15 Aug
    at 2110 UTC from Region 3405 (N10, L=181, Dso/Beta as on 16 Aug).
    Other notable activity included a type II radio sweep on 20 Aug at
    0626 UTC with an estimated speed of 488 Km/s. This event was
    associated with a C3.7/SF flare at 20/0626 UTC from Region 3409
    (N22, L=252, Bxo/Beta on 21 Aug).

    No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit, as
    measured by the GOES-16 satellite, reached high levels on 14 Aug
    with a peak flux of 1,250 pfu observed at 1330 UTC. Normal to
    moderate levels were observed 15-20 Aug.

    Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels 14-15 and 17-18 Aug.
    Unsettled levels were reached on 16 Aug likely in response to weak
    transient influence coupled with a CIR. Unsettled levels were
    reached again 19-20 Aug due to negative polarity CH HSS effects.

    Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    21 August - 16 September 2023

    Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for
    M-class flare acitivity through the outlook period.

    No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
    expected to be at normal to moderate levels 21 Aug - 06 Sep and
    11-16 Sep. High levels are expected 07-10 Sep in response to
    recurrent CH HSS influence.

    Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet 26 Aug - 05 Sep
    and 09-13 Sep. Unsettled levels are expected 21-25 Aug, 06-08 Sep
    and 15-16 Sep due to recurrent CH HSS effects. Active conditions are
    expected 14 Sep due to a recurrent CIR ahead of CH HSS onset.


    --- MBSE BBS v1.0.8.4 (Linux-x86_64)
    * Origin: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (3:633/280.2@fidonet)