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  • Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 04 - 10 December 2

    From SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov@3:633/280.2 to All on Tue Dec 12 05:00:11 2023
    Subject: Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 04 - 10 December 2023

    :Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    :Issued: 2023 Dec 11 0118 UTC
    # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
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    # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    #
    Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    04 - 10 December 2023

    Solar activity ranged from low to high levels this period with
    Regions 3511 (S22, L=216, class/area=Fsi/180 on 09 Dec) and 3513
    (N19, L=220, class/area=Eai/220 on 10 Dec) being the primary sources
    of flare activity. The largest event observed was an M5.4/1b flare (R2/Moderate) at 08/2307 UTC from Region 3511. In addition to the
    M5.5 event, Region 3511 produced four R1 (Minor) events over 08-10
    Dec. Region 3513 produced five R1 (Minor) events over 05-06 Dec.
    Despite the flare activity and a number of filament eruptions
    observed throughout the week, no Earth-directed CMEs were detected.

    No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
    high levels 08-09 Dec, with normal to moderate levels observed on
    04-07 and 10 Dec.

    Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels over
    04-06 Dec due to a combination of weak CME (from 01 Dec) influences
    on 04-05 Dec and negative polarity CH HSS influences on 05-06 Dec.
    Quiet conditions and a background solar wind environment prevailed
    over 07-10 Dec.

    Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    11 December - 06 January 2024

    Solar activity is likely to reach moderate to high levels on 11-12
    Dec due to the flare potential of Regions 3511 and 3513. Solar
    activity is expected to be low with a chance for R1-R2
    (Minor-Moderate) flare events throughout the remainder of the
    outlook period.

    No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
    expected to be at normal to moderate levels throughout the period.

    Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet and unsettled
    over 11-14 Dec due to positive polarity CH HSS influences. Quiet to
    unsettled levels are expected over 15-20 Dec, with active conditions
    likely on 18 Dec and G1 (Minor) storms likely on 19 Dec, due to
    positive polarity CH HSS influences. G1 (Minor) storms are likely on
    22 Dec, with active conditions likely on 23 Dec, due to positive
    polarity CH HSS effects. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on
    30 Dec-02 Jan, with active conditions likely on 01 Jan, due to
    negative polarity CH HSS influences. Quiet levels and background
    solar wind conditions are expected to prevail throughout the
    remainder of the period.


    --- MBSE BBS v1.0.8.4 (Linux-x86_64)
    * Origin: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (3:633/280.2@fidonet)