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  • Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 02 - 08 January 20

    From SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov@3:633/280.2 to All on Tue Jan 10 05:00:11 2023
    Subject: Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 02 - 08 January 2023

    :Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    :Issued: 2023 Jan 09 0221 UTC
    # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
    # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
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    # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    #
    Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    02 - 08 January 2023

    Solar activity ranged from low to high levels. Region 3182 (S17,
    L=228, class/area=Eki/880 on 08 Jan) produced a the strongest event
    of the period, an X1/2b flare 06/0057 (R3 - Strong) UTC with an
    associated Tenflare. The region also produced an M1/Sf flare (R1 -
    Minor) at 07/0052 UTC. As it was rotating on to the visible disk
    from the SE limb, Region 3184 (S13, L=179, class/area=Hax/240)
    produced four M1 flares on 08 Jan at 0839, 0915, 1451 and 1902 UTC.
    The remaining nine numbered active regions were either quiet or only
    produced C-class X-ray flares.

    Other activity included an asymmetric, partial-halo CME which was
    observed off the E limb at ~03/0636 UTC. Associated with the event
    was a C3 flare, a Type II (est. 624 km/s) and Type IV radio sweep,
    along with a Tenflare. The produced CME was analyzed and not
    determined to have an Earth-directed component.

    No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
    moderate to high levels. High levels were observed on 02-03 Jan in
    response to a positive polarity CH HSS. The remainder of the summary
    period reached only moderate levels.

    Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic
    storm conditions. G1 conditions were observed on 04 Jan in response
    to the arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 30 Dec. Total magnetic
    field strength increased to a peak of 19 nT and Bz reached as far
    south as -12 nT. Solar wind speeds through the transient were
    roughly 420-380 km/s. The remainder of the summary period was at
    mostly quiet to unsettled levels.

    Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    09 January - 04 February 2023

    Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over
    09-11 Jan, primarily due to the flare potential from Regions 3182
    and 3184. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at
    low levels with a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2 - Minor-
    Moderate).

    No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
    expected to be high levels of 20-30 Jan in response to CH HSS
    activity. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at
    normal to moderate levels.

    Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G1
    (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions. G1 conditions are anticipated
    on 19 Jan and 26 Jan; active conditions are likely on 20 Jan, 27 Jan
    and 01 Feb; unsettled conditions are likely on 10-11 Jan, 14 Jan, 18
    Jan, 21 Jan, 25 Jan, 28 Jan and 02 Feb. Elevations in geomagnetic
    activity are anticipated in response to multiple, recurrent CHSSs.
    The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at mostly
    quiet levels.


    --- MBSE BBS v1.0.8 (Linux-x86_64)
    * Origin: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (3:633/280.2@fidonet)