SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP003
ARLP003 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP03
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 3 ARLP003

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA January 20, 2023
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP003
ARLP003 Propagation de K7RA

Last week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP002 opened with "Wow!"
I don't know what to say about this week, except it is beyond wow.

This actually has me thinking about Solar Cycle 19.

Lately we have seen solar flux at the same levels we saw at the peak
of Solar Cycle 23. If we are about 30 months away from the peak of
this Solar Cycle 25, could this get us to the 1957-59 levels last
seen in Solar Cycle 19? Stories from that time tell of worldwide
coverage 24x7 on 10 meter AM from low power mobile stations.

Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 135.9 to 173.4, while
average solar flux went to 221.8 from 181.2. Yesterday the thrice
daily solar flux reported from the Penticton, British Columbia
observatory indicated rising solar flux at 224.6, 226.1 and 230.1.
These are recorded at 1800, 2000 and 2200 UTC. It is the middle
number, at local noon, that is recorded as the official number for
the day.

From Spaceweather.com: "If sunspot production continues apace for

the rest of January, the monthly sunspot number will reach a 20-year
high."

Average planetary A index increased from 6.7 to 13.9,

On January 15 the planetary A index reached a peak of 30, a very
high value indicating a geomagnetic storm. Conditions were stormy
throughout the week, due to flares and CMEs. On that day in
Fairbanks, Alaska the college A index was 53, a very high number.
There was a large polar cap absorption event.

Nine new sunspot groups appeared during this reporting week, January
12-18. One on January 12, four on January 13, two more on January
15, and two more, one each on January 17 and 18.

Predicted solar flux is 220 on January 20-21, 215 on January 22-23,
210 on January 24-25, 215 on January 26-27, 185 on January 28-29,
190 on January 30 through February 2, 195 and 200 on February 3-4,
205 on February 5-6, 210 on February 7-11, then a big jump to 235
and 230 on February 12-13, 225 on February 14-16, 220 on February
17, then 215 on February 18-19, 210 and 200 on February 20-21, 190
on February 22-23, and 185 on February 24-25. Solar flux is expected
to rise above 200 again in the first week of March.

Predicted planetary A index is 15, 12 and 8 on January 20-22, 5 on
January 23-24, then 12, 10, 12 and 8 on January 25-28, 5 on January
29 through 31, then 12 and 8 on February 1-2, 5 on February 3-6,
then 12, 12, 15 and 12 on February 7-10, 5 on February 11-13, then
8, 15, 10 and 7 on February 14-17, 5 on February 18-20, then 7, 18,
10 and 7 on February 21-24, 5 on February 25-26, then 7, 18, 12 and
8 on February 27 through March 2.

OK1HH wrote:

"Large sunspot groups on the Sun's far side, detected by
helioseismology at the beginning of this year, showed the region of
active heliographic longitude gradually approached the eastern limb
of the solar disk. Solar activity increased after their arrival.

"Solar flux rose from 146 on January 2 to 195 on January 11. Yet one
solar revolution back (December 15) it was only 166 and two turns
back (November 18) only 116.

"The January 6 prediction of increasing activity was brilliantly
confirmed, especially by a large X-class flare in AR3182 with a
maximum at 0057 UTC.

"Surprisingly, it did not produce a CME - the ejected particles
never left the Sun.

"In the following days, the activity of AR3182 was joined by the
newly erupted AR3184, again in the southeast of the solar disk. An
X-class flare was observed there as well (X1.9 on January 9 1850
UTC). Most of the large flares in the last few days occurred during
nighttime in Europe. Blackouts up to 30 MHz were recorded,
especially by stations in and around the Pacific. It was not until
the eruption on January 9 that a shortwave blackout was seen in the
western Atlantic, including the East Coast of the U.S. On January
10, the Sun produced another X-class eruption, from new sunspot
group AR3186.

"As active regions approached the central meridian, the probability
of Earth being hit by particles from possible CMEs increases, or
more importantly the Earth's magnetic field activity increases, MUF
levels decrease, and the evolution of shortwave propagation
gradually worsens, especially during disturbances that are difficult
to predict accurately."

Sam, KY8R commented on 30 meter propagation:

"Reading your report it looks good, but I have to tell you 30M is
like a dead horse in the Sonoran Desert."

I replied:

"On FT8 and I make many contacts on 30 meters, but it seems to be
best around sunrise or sunset, before and after.

"I just did a prediction with W6ELprop and it shows 30 meters from
my location (CN87) open during daylight hours to the East Coast, and
to Texas 24x7 with brief dropouts at 7am local here (1500 UTC) and
10:30 PM (0630 UTC).

"From your location, it looks different. To Texas it fades starting
at 0200 UTC and stays dead until 1400 UTC and is strongest at 1500
and 2330 UTC.

"To Atlanta from DM33 (you) it is weakest from 1700-2100 UTC. Of
course, these are statistical approximations."

Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW in Easton, Pennsylvania FN20jq is having fun
on 10 meter FM.

"Today (January 19) I made a 2-way QSO with John, AL7ID in Fairbanks
for five minutes from 2028-2033 UTC on the 29.6 MHz national calling
frequency, then QSY 29.5 FM.

"I just barely heard him mention the QSY to 29.5.

"Initially he was 2x2 QSB, then minutes later 3x4 QSB.

"The FM signal was spreading apart due to F2 propagation and made it
difficult at times.

"He was my first Alaska 10-meter FM simplex contact!"

Mike has a YouTube video of both his Alaska QSO, and another with
Argentina:

https://youtu.be/NDZACCqMd08

Earlier, Mike reported:

"On Tuesday, January 17th, 29.6 MHz FM went active with multi-hop
sporadic-E or F2 propagation into France, United Kingdom, Mexico,
Alaska, and Argentina into the northeast USA.

"Readability ranged from unreadable to practically no difficulty,
Strength ranged from faint - signals barely perceptible to fair
signals. All the signals had light QSB.

"UTC: Callsign: Grid:
1544 F5SDD JN23qf
1617 G4RIE IO83rn
1803 XE2LVM DL92dp
2040 AL7ID BP64ku
2040 LU1HJS FF79XX"

Jon Jones, N0JK reported:

"Some interesting 6 meter propagation on January 16.

"First, there appeared to be a 6 meter F2 opening between Puerto
Rico and Colorado that morning. K0RI in DM78 and NO0T/P in DN70
spotted KP4AJ in FK68 around 1550 UTC on 6 meter FT8. No
intermediate stations spotted. The 10.7 cm solar flux was reported
to be 234. [Jon had probably not seen the updated flux for that day
yet. It was actually 228.1 and 234.3 the day before.]

"Later there was sporadic-E from Kansas to Mexico. I logged XE2JS in
DL68 at 1605 UTC. He was very strong.

"That afternoon the TN8K DXpedition to the Congo Republic worked
PJ4MM, V26OC, and FG8OJ on 6 meter FT8 via F-layer propagation around
2230 UTC.

"The ARRL January VHF contest is this weekend. There is a
possibility of sporadic-E and even some F2 on 6 meters in this
contest."

Later Jon reported a 6 meter contact with Mexico.

Sunspots in the news:

https://bit.ly/3Hdilp4

Sky & Telescope with an article on giant sunspot group AR3190:

https://skyandtelescope.org/astronomy-news/see-a-giant-sunspot/

An article on 11 year, 100 year, and 2300 year cycles:

https://bit.ly/3kjVSxC

Here is the latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/e-p-tpNkOss

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers January 12 through 18, 2023 were 151, 181, 170, 177,
186, 185, and 164, with a mean of 173.4. 10.7 cm flux was 211.6,
208.5, 227.8, 234.3, 228.1, 221.7, and 220.3, with a mean of 221.8.
Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 12, 11, 30, 14, 6, and 15,
with a mean of 13.9. Middle latitude A index was 8, 10, 9, 17, 10,
5, and 11, with a mean of 10.
NNNN
/EX


--- MBSE BBS v1.0.8 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: American Radio Relay League (3:633/280.2@fidonet)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP003
ARLP003 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP03
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 3 ARLP003

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA January 19, 2024
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP003
ARLP003 Propagation de K7RA

Solar activity increased substantially over the past week, with
twelve new sunspot groups. One appeared on January 11, five more on
January 12, another on January 13, two more on January 15, and three
more on January 16.

Two more sunspot groups emerged on January 18.

Average daily sunspot number rose from 146.1 to 167.3, and solar
flux from 163.3 to 184.1.

Geomagnetic numbers remained low and practically unchanged, with
planetary A index moving from 4.9 to 5, and middle latitude A index
shifting from 4.3 to 3.9.

Predicted solar flux is 162, 160 and 155 on January 19-21, then 150
on January 22-23, 152 on January 24-25, 167 on January 26, 170 on
January 27-29, then 175 and 180 on January 30-31, 185 on February
1-4, then 187 and 185 on February 5-6, 170 on February 7-8, 175 on
February 9-10, 190 on February 11-12, then 185, 175, 170 and 165 on
February 13-16, then 162 on February 17-18, then 160, 160, 165 and
167 on February 19-22, and 170 on February 23-25.

Predicted planetary A index is 5, 1, and 10 on January 19-21, then 5
on January 22-27, 8 on January 28-30, 5 on January 31 through
February 11, 8 on February 12-14, and 5 on February 15-23, then 12
on February 24-25.

In an email report on January 14, Jon Jones, N0JK wrote, "Today
there are thirteen sunspot groups on the Earthside of the Sun - the
greatest number so far in Solar Cycle 25. Despite the surfeit of
sunspots, the Sun has been quiet all weekend. Could it be the calm
before the storm? One of the sunspots (AR3541) has a delta-class
magnetic field that poses a threat for X-class solar flares."

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - January 18, 2024 from OK1HH:

"We've had two weeks of mostly quiet conditions, with relatively
high solar activity but only a few flares. And most importantly - no
CMEs hitting the Earth. In addition, 13 sunspot groups were observed
on the Sun on January 13 - the highest number in the current 11-year
cycle. Despite the glut of sunspots, the Sun remained quiet.

"Shortwave conditions were therefore more influenced by changes in
solar wind parameters. The exception was on 15 January, when
shortwave propagation was affected by a sporadic-E layer, which
occurred over Europe before noon UTC and over the USA later in the
afternoon UTC.

"Although solar flares were not massive, they were nevertheless
accompanied by CMEs on several occasions, but were directed away
from Earth. The biggest of these left the Sun on January 14 and was
headed toward Mercury and Venus (these planets can be seen in the
east before sunrise).

"We are now expecting solar flares of C-class at 0-2 per day, with
the rare possibility of a M-class flare. Coronal holes are mostly
small and do not occur near active regions, which also reduces the
likelihood of geomagnetic disturbances. Therefore, it appears that
the current relatively favorable trend will continue."

Bil Paul, KD6JUI in Northern California operates from a fresh water
kayak, and sent this report:

"I was out in the kayak yesterday, January 11, with 10w and a small
loop. With solar flux at 180+ I expected a lot happening on 10m but
that was not the case. Was disappointed. Did get a few contacts.
Heard Chile and Argentina coming in fairly strong (I had no luck
there) and heard very faintly an Israeli station. Best distance I
contacted was Bermuda, a VP9, on CW.

"Went down to 12m and had a few more contacts.

"Quite a bit of QSB on both bands."

Dave, N4KZ in Kentucky reported via email:

"For the second time in the past month I have decoded DX signals on
8 meters. Several countries have authorized their amateurs to
operate on 8 meters. The FT8 frequency is 40.680 MHz. On January 14,
2024, at 1540 UTC I saw a spot for 8 meter activity on the DX Summit
website. As soon as I moved to that frequency, I decoded several DX
signals from Europe and the Caribbean. But within a few minutes
signals faded out.

"About a month ago, I saw an Irish station work an American station
who has an experimental license for 8 meters. No other activity was
heard that time. I know of at least one American on 8 meters with an experimental license. He's in Georgia. I'm not sure if there are
others.

"I was using my 3-element 6-meter Yagi up 60 feet to listen. On the
two occasions I have decoded European stations, they had good
signals. Offhand, crossing the Atlantic on 40 MHz seems much easier
than at 50 MHz."

Tolvo, W8JTM of Liberty Lake, Washington sent this report:

"The 'Santa Claus Polar Path' described by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA
(link follows) is well and good! Not sure if it was winter F2
ionization or Aurora-E, but I had a nice SSB ragchew with OH6RM on
10 meters on 15 January when it was 11 PM Finland time (2100 UTC),
well after the MUF had dropped to not support 28 MHz.

"Signals were 20 dB over S9 with no flutter the whole time, and
after I signed off, I heard him work station-after-station all over
the USA for almost two hours with his signal only dropping to S9.
It was an incredibly solid path for 10 meters from Eastern
Washington, some 4500 miles.

"I also worked into Finland on 17 January on 15 meter phone, but
there was heavy slow flutter on the signals.

"As reported by Carl, these polar paths are surprisingly reliable in
Fall and Winter, and I always enjoy working into Finland where my
parents were from."

https://k9la.us/Sep14_The_Santa_Claus_Polar_Path.pdf

From Scientific American, a story about the upcoming Solar Eclipse,

with sunspots this time:

https://bit.ly/3vESa7r

An image of Sunspot AR3545 from Sky and Telescope magazine:

https://bit.ly/48BmDCb

SciTechDaily article about the Solar peak:

https://bit.ly/4b4f60g

An article about a gigantic solar hole:

https://bit.ly/3O5ful2

Explanation of the Babcock Model:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Babcock_model

From News Rebeat, the US/Korea to monitor solar storms:

https://bit.ly/3Snq5ui

A "Travel and Leisure" article about the Northern Lights with regard
to a Solar max January to October 2024:

https://bit.ly/3RXNKQC

Here is the latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/jo0Tg2W4fEE

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Also, check this:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for January 11 through 17 2024 were 151, 188, 191,
183, 150, 150, and 158, with a mean of 167.3. 10.7 cm flux was
192.5, 186.4, 185.4, 187.9, 182.5, 179.6, and 174.1, with a mean of
184.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 4, 3, 6, 6, 6, and 4,
with a mean of 5. Middle latitude A index was 4, 4, 3, 5, 4, 4, and
3, with a mean of 3.9.
NNNN
/EX


--- MBSE BBS v1.0.8.4 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: American Radio Relay League (3:633/280.2@fidonet)