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  • Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 23 - 29 January 20

    From SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov@3:633/280.2 to All on Tue Jan 31 05:00:09 2023
    Subject: Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 23 - 29 January 2023

    :Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    :Issued: 2023 Jan 30 0142 UTC
    # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
    # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
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    # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    #
    Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    23 - 29 January 2023

    Solar activity was moderate. Region 3192 (N16, L=115, class/area,
    Fki/420 on 18 Jan) produced all of the M-class flares during the
    period. The largest was an M4.6/Sf flare at 25/1011 UTC. Additional
    events from Region 3192 included an M1.3/Sf flare at 25/1701 UTC, an
    M2.0 flare at 25/2235 UTC, and an M2.8 flare at 26/1306 UTC. Region
    3192 rotated around the west limb on 26 January. There was a
    combined total of four M-class flares during the period, all at the
    R1 (Minor) level, and all from Region 3192.

    No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
    normal to moderate levels throughout the reporting period.

    Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
    Unsettled levels were observed on 23, 25-28 January, with quiet
    conditions on 24 and 29 January. Slightly enhanced field conditions
    were influenced by multiple, positive-polarity CH HSSs.

    Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    30 January - 25 February 2023

    Solar activity is expected to be low, with a slight chance for
    M-class flare activity (R1-R2) on 30 Jan - 02 Feb. Solar activity is
    likely to reach moderate levels with the return of Region 3184 (S13,
    L=180) on 03 Feb and remain there throughout the rest of the outlook
    period, due to the flare potential of numerous returning M and
    X-class producing regions.

    No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
    expected to reach high levels on 30-31 January in response to recent
    CH HSS influence. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to
    be at moderate levels.

    Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to active
    levels. Active conditions are likely on 02-03, 07-10 February.
    Unsettled levels are likely on 04, 12-13, 18, and 22-24 February.
    Increased geomagnetic activity is in response to multiple, recurrent
    CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be
    mostly quiet.


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    * Origin: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (3:633/280.2@fidonet)