SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP008
ARLP008 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP08
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 8 ARLP008

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA February 24, 2023
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP008
ARLP008 Propagation de K7RA

Solar activity plunged this reporting week, although there was great
the excitement when the solar flux on February 17 was reported as a
record breaking 343.1.

Because it was the noon reading, it is still reported by NOAA as the
solar flux, but this was a false reading when the observatory at
Penticton, British Columbia was swamped by energy from a solar
flare.

So, in this report, I have chosen the 1800 UTC flux value, which was
165.

Average daily sunspot number plunged from 182.4 to 107, while
average solar flux dropped from 196.4 to 162.4. If I had not changed
the 343.1 to 165, solar flux average would have been 187.9, more
than 25 points higher than what we report here.

Six new sunspots emerged over the week, one on February 16, one each
on February 18 and 19, and three more on February 20, then one day
after the end of the reporting week, on February 23, two more
sunspot groups appeared.

The solar flux prediction for the next month shows a peak value of
180 for March 7-13.

Predicted values are 148 on February 24, 146 on February 25-27, 142
on February 28, 140 on March 1-2, 145, 150, 155, and 165 on March
3-6, 180 on March 7-13, then 175 and 170 on March 14-15, 160 on
March 16-17, then 155, 160, 150, 140 and 135 on March 18-22, 125 on
March 23-24, 130 on March 25, then 140 on March 26-28, 145 on March
29-30, then 150, 155 and 165 on March 31 through April 2. Beginning
on April 3, predicted flux values are back to 180, continuing into
the following week.

Predicted planetary A index is 10 on February 24-25, then 12, 18,
20, 16 and 10 on February 26 through March 2, 5 on March 3-4, then
15, 18, 15 and 8 on March 5-8, 5 on March 9-14, 15 on March 15, 8 on
March 16-17, 5 on March 18-20, 10 on March 21-23, 5 on March 24-25,
and 8 on March 26-27, then 5, 8, 5, 5, 15, 18, 15 and 8 on March 28
through April 4.

F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

"A week ago, on February 17, we vainly awaited the arrival of a CME,
and at least a weak G1-class geomagnetic storm. Instead, on February
17 at 2016 UTC, we were treated to a strong X2.2-class solar flare
in the newly emerging sunspot group AR3229. X-ray and UV radiation
as well triggered the Dellinger Effect over the Americas. The
Dellinger Effect is a Sudden Ionospheric Disturbance.

"Frequencies up to 30 MHz were attenuated for more than an hour
after the flare. The arrival of the CME affected the Earth's
magnetic field at 1039 UTC on February 20. However, most of the
particle cloud passed outside the Earth, therefore there was no
geomagnetic storm, but only an increase in geomagnetic activity.

"The new AR3234 produced M-class flares in the following days.
Dellinger events could only affect radio wave propagation up to 20
MHz (as long as we had the Sun overhead, of course).

"Thereafter no significant flares were observed, so no CMEs were
directed toward us. But that may change when AR3234 turns toward
Earth. In other words, when the Sun's rotation moves it to the
central meridian, which will happen by the end of the week.
Primarily, the overall activity of the Sun and most likely the
Earth's magnetic field will depend on its activity."

Jon Jones, N0JK wrote:

"There was a nice 6 meter F2 opening on February 16.

"I logged HC1MD/2 in grid FI57 on 50 MHz FT8 at 1916 UTC. I found
this opening by checking the DX Maps website. HC1MD/2 had a strong,
steady signal. I operated from home using an attic dipole antenna.
Also logged HC2FG.

"Other area 6 meter operators such as WQ0P (EM19) and KF0M (EM17)
also worked stations in Chile. The K index was 4, which I suspect
may have helped.

"On February 18 a number of North American stations worked Robert,
3B9FR around 1600 UTC on 6 Meter FT8.

"3B9FR is on Rodriguez Island in the Indian Ocean off the southeast
coast of South Africa.

"Conditions were great in the ARRL International DX CW Contest on 10
meters. I operated a couple of hours Sunday morning running 5 watts
and a quarter wave whip fixed mobile. Worked over a hundred stations
in Europe, the Caribbean, South America and Africa. Many of the
Europeans were over S-9."

Dick, K2KA wrote:

"February 21 at 1544 UTC on 6 meters I worked FR4OO and then at 1558
UTC I worked 3B9FR. Both were FT8. I happened to be at the radio at
the right time. It was an amazing albeit brief opening here. They
were obviously new countries for me on 6 meters. They were #120 and
#121, respectively.

"My station here is IC-7610, ACOM 700s, antenna is a M2 6M7JHV 7el
on 30 ft. boom at 40 ft."

A story about a Solar Tsunami:

https://yhoo.it/3EyYOxJ

A time-lapse video of a Flare:

https://bit.ly/3Ikc0aQ

Aki, JQ2UOZ wrote:

"Last weekend I participated in the ARRL International DX CW Contest
using an output power of 500 mW and a dipole antenna.

"The band conditions on 10m and 15m were amazing. I worked 9 East
Coast stations (VT, ME, DE, CT, NY, NH, PA, VA and FL) on 10m and 6
East Coast stations (MA, 2 NH, 2 PA and MD) on 15m. Usually, the
band conditions on 10m in February are not so good even at the
sunspot cycle maximum. This is the first time I worked East Coast
stations on 10m in the ARRL International DX CW Contest using 0.5W
and a dipole. Thanks to good-ears stations who worked me."

Scott Hower wrote:

"With the exception of Thursday the 16th, 10 meters was hot this
week. On Wednesday February 15th I decoded 3A2MW in Monaco around
1233 to 1300 UTC using FT8 with his signal level as high as -13 dB.
This is the first time I have ever been able to receive Franco's
signal after years of trying on 10 meters. Unfortunately, he could
not receive me. 9N7AA has also been coming in every morning (except
the 16th) with levels as high as -1 dB using FT8 F/H. I finally
logged him on Friday the 17th."

Scott did not mention his call sign, but I think he may be K7KQ.

Here is the latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/wm7tXN2EUCY

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for February 16 through 22, 2023 were 101, 86, 109,
112, 135, 106, and 100, with a mean of 107. 10.7 cm flux was 163.2,
165, 167.2, 169, 159.8, 160.9, and 151.9, with a mean of 162.4.
Estimated planetary A indices were 24, 6, 6, 7, 8, 17, and 6, with a
mean of 10.6. Middle latitude A index was 21, 4, 5, 4, 6, 15, and 4,
with a mean of 8.4.
NNNN
/EX


--- MBSE BBS v1.0.8 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: American Radio Relay League (3:633/280.2@fidonet)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP008
ARLP008 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP08
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 8 ARLP008

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA February 23, 2024
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP008
ARLP008 Propagation de K7RA

"ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 0237 UTC/22
FEBRUARY 2024 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

"A solar filament has erupted from the northwest solar quadrant and
a component of the predominately westward associated CME is expected
to arrive at the Earth during the second half of 24-Feb. G1
conditions, with the chance of G2 periods are possible during the
second half of 24-Feb and first half of 25-Feb. Modeling shows the
bulk of the CME missing the Earth.

"INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL MASS
EJECTION FROM 24-25 FEBRUARY 2024."

Spaceweather.com wrote on February 22:

"TWO MAJOR SOLAR FLARES: Giant sunspot AR3590 just unleashed two
major X-class solar flares. The double blast approximately coincided
with a widely reported outage of cell phone service; however,
experts agree that the flares were probably not responsible. More
flares are in the offing. The sunspot has an unstable 'delta-class'
magnetic field, and it is turning toward Earth."

Sunspot numbers and solar flux values dropped over the past week,
with average daily sunspot numbers down from 134.6 to 84.4 and
average daily solar flux dropping from 190 to 164.

Geomagnetic conditions were very quiet. Planetary A index declined
from the low value of 7.4 to 4.4, and middle latitude A index from
6.1 to 3.5.

Only four new sunspot groups appeared, three on February 15 and one
on February 18.

Spaceweather.com says all their content is written by humans, with
no Artificial Intelligence at all.

I decided to ask an AI bot when Solar Cycle 25 will peak:

From Gemini AI bot:

"There are two main perspectives on when Solar Cycle 25 will reach
its maximum:

"Original prediction:

"An expert panel convened by NOAA, NASA, and ISES in 2019 predicted
a peak in July 2025 with a maximum sunspot number of 115.

"This prediction assumed a similar strength to the weak Solar Cycle
24.

"Revised prediction:

"In October 2023, NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC)
released a revised prediction based on observed activity. This new
prediction suggests a faster rise and higher peak, likely between
January and October 2024, with a sunspot number between 137 and 173.

"However, it's important to note that the timing could still fall
within the broad error range of November 2024 to March 2026.

"So, the answer depends on which prediction you consider:

"Original prediction: July 2025

"Revised prediction: Between January and October 2024 (more likely
than July 2025).

"It's important to stay updated on the latest information as
scientists continue to monitor the Sun's activity. You can find more
details and updates on the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
website:

"https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression

"END AI BOT CONTENT."

I have bookmarked that last link.

ISES stands for the International Space Environment Service.

Here is a revised outlook for the next month, from USAF via NOAA.

Predicted solar flux is 175 on February 23, 180 on February 24-29,
then 160 and 165 on March 1-2, 170 on March 3-9, 165 on March 10-16,
then 162, 160, and 165 on March 17-19, 170 on March 20-21, 172 on
March 22-23, 165 on March 24-26, and 155, 160, and 165 on March
27-29, and 170 on March 30 into the first week in April.

Predicted planetary A index is 6, 5, 20 and 10 on February 23-26,
and 5 on February 27 through March 23, 8 and 7 on March 24-25, and 5
on March 26 through the first week in April.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - February 23-29, 2024 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

"During the last seven days, based on helioseismological
observations we first expected the rise of a larger active region at
the northeastern limb of the solar disk.

"Meanwhile, gradually most of the sunspot groups on its western half
have faded, whereby the solar flux has dropped to 152.

"The larger active region came out, was designated AR3590, and is
large enough to observe with the naked eye (in relation to the area
over 700 millionths of the solar disk), for example, using a solar
eclipse filter. However, its beta-gamma magnetic configuration was
not conducive to larger flares. All the more surprising were two
successive X-class flares: X1.8 on 21 February with a maximum at
2307 UT and X.1.7 on 22 February with a maximum at 0632 UT. However,
they were short-lived and not accompanied by CMEs. During the first
of these, shortwave propagation subsided, particularly in the
western USA and the Pacific (the Dellinger effect).

"Expect an increase in solar X-ray and ultraviolet radiation in the
coming days and mostly geomagnetically quiet conditions. As Spring
approaches, shortwave propagation will be mostly above average or
even better."

K7BTW posted this to the Western Washington DX Club email list on
February 20:

"Fantastic band conditions.

"If you're not taking advantage of these band conditions, you are
missing a lot. On 20 meters FT8 in the last few minutes around 8pm
(0400 UTC) I worked Middle East stations in Lebanon, Jordan, Saudi
Arabia, and Qatar, plus several UN and many Russians. Over the pole
conditions are incredible.

"Take advantage of the sunspot cycle. We know what it will be like
in 5 years!"

Jeff, N8II wrote on February 16:

"If we are at the peak, I would think this is a poor cycle.

"Not long ago the flux dropped below 130 briefly.

"10 meter conditions are excellent now with much better conditions
to East Asia in the evening than the first 3 weeks of January.

"Today at 2400 UTC 10 meters was open well to Taiwan working BX5AA
and also a BD4 around 0030 UTC. Japanese signals were excellent
until just before 0100 UTC. I heard 8R7X in Guyana running many
Japanese until 0100 UTC on 10 CW."

Here in Seattle where I (K7RA) live we have always had a pipeline to
Japan, which at times can seem overwhelming.

Reader David Moore sent this article from the European Space Agency:

https://tinyurl.com/bdz3uxnp


Articles about powerful Solar Flares:

https://tinyurl.com/5ysj6xyt

https://tinyurl.com/vkyfpyr4

https://tinyurl.com/mrxa7uhb


Geo News article about the Solar max:

https://tinyurl.com/53zena9c


Big sunspot AR3590 visible to the eye:

https://tinyurl.com/mrbw3fms


The latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/T292oXH12Hk

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Also, check this QST article about Solar Indices:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for February 15 through 21 2024 were 151, 97, 100,
84, 64, 50, and 45, with a mean of 84.4. 10.7 cm flux was 178.3,
168.8, 169.9, 156.5, 152.1, 152.6, and 169.9, with a mean of 164.
Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 4, 4, 6, 3, 6, and 4, with a
mean of 4.4. Middle latitude A index was 3, 3, 4, 4, 1, 5, and 3,
with a mean of 3.3.
NNNN
/EX


--- MBSE BBS v1.0.8.4 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: American Radio Relay League (3:633/280.2@fidonet)