Subject: Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 06 - 12 March 2023
:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2023 Mar 13 0207 UTC
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# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
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Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
06 - 12 March 2023
Solar activity ranged from low to high levels. There were five
M-class (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate) flares over the reporting period. The
largest was an M5.8/2n (R2) flare from Region 3243 (N18, L=306, class/area=Dao/110 on 05 Mar). Associated with the event was a Type
II radio sweep, a Tenflare and a CME signature in SOHO/LASCO
imagery. The ejecta was analyzed and determined to not contain an Earth-directed component. Region 3242 (N10, L=218,
class/area=Esc/300 on 07 Mar) and Region 3245 (S23, L=196,
class/area=Dhi/440 on 08 Mar) also produced M-class (R1) events. The
remaining 11 other spotted regions were either quiet or only
produced C-class events.
Other activity included three filament eruptions. The first was a SW
quadrant eruption near S20W50, beginning around 10/1600 UTC. The
second was just south of the first, which began erupting around
11/1648 UTC. Both were analyzed and modeled. Although they were
mostly oriented to the SW of Earth, the potential for a glancing
blow was determined to be likely around 15 Mar. Finally, the third
filament eruption, which began around 12/1730 UTC and in the SE
quadrant near Region 3251 (S13, L=121, class/area=Hsx/50 on 12 Mar),
produced a CME signature first seen in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at
12/1912 UTC. Analysis and modeling of the event is ongoing.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
moderate to high levels. High levels were observed on 06-10 Mar due
to influence from a negative polarity CH HSS. 11-12 Mar were at
normal to moderate levels.
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. Waning
coronal hole influence elevated winds speeds to between 500-600 km/s
on 06-07 Mar before declining to nominal levels by 08 Mar. This
produced isolated periods of active conditions over 06 Mar, which
then declined to quiet to unsettled levels on 07-08 Mar. Weak
transient influence increased total field strength to 8-9 nT on
09-10 Mar. This also produced isolated active periods on both days.
Despite another weak transient influence observed in the IMF over 12
Mar, the remainder of the summary period was at quiet to unsettled
levels.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
13 March - 08 April 2023
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a slight chance
for M-class (R1-R2 Minor - Moderate) flares over the outlook period.
This is due to multiple regions that have either produced M-class
activity already or are sufficiently complex to produce M-class
activity currently being on the visible disk or expected to return
to the visible disk during the outlook period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to range from moderate to high levels. High levels are
likely on 27 Mar 06 Apr due to recurrent coronal hole influence. The
remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at moderate
levels.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to minor
storm levels (G1 - Minor). G1 conditions are likely on 15 Mar due to anticipated effects from CMEs that left the Sun on 10-11 Mar. G1
conditions are again likely on 26 Mar and 30-31 Mar in response
recurrent coronal hole activity. Active conditions 20 Mar, 25 Mar,
27 Mar and 01 Apr along with unsettled conditions on 14 Mar, 16 Mar,
19 Mar, 24 Mar, 28-29 Mar and 02-08 Apr are also due to recurrent
features in the solar wind. The remainder of the outlook period is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels.
--- MBSE BBS v1.0.8 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (3:633/280.2@fidonet)