SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP011
ARLP011 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP11
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 11 ARLP011

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA March 17, 2023
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP011
ARLP011 Propagation de K7RA

Six new sunspot groups emerged over the past week, two on March 9,
another on March 10, one more on March 12, and another two on March
14.

Sunspot numbers and solar flux declined this week.

Average daily sunspot numbers softened from 143.6 to 118.7, and
average daily solar flux from 181.6 to 153.6.

Predicted solar flux is 135, 140, 138, and 135 on March 17-20, then
132, 132 and 130 on March 21-23, 155 on March 24-26, 150 on March
27-28, 145 on March 29-30, then 140, 145, 150, 155, and 160 on March
31 through April 4, 165 on April 5-8, 170 on April 9-11, then 175,
180, 180, 175, 170 and 165 on April 12-17, 160 on April 18-19, 155
on April 20-21, then 140, 150, 150 and 145 on April 22-25.

Predicted planetary A index is 8, 5, 5, 12 and 8 on March 17-21,
then 5, 5, 12, 16 and 26 on March 22-26, then 18, 10, 8, 24 and 22
on March 27-31, then 16 on April 1-2, then 14, 12, 8 and 10 on April
3-6, 8 on April 7-8, then 5, 8, 22 and 8 on April 9-12, 5 on April
13-14, then 8 and 16 on April 15-16, 5 on April 17-19, then 12, 16,
26 and 18 on April 20-23.

Check out this propagation modeling site, sent from WB6MPH.

https://dr2w.de/dx-propagation/

Jon, N0JK wrote:

"On March 15 there was a CME impact. The Kp peaked at 6. 6 meters
opened to South America. I logged HK3O in FJ24 at 2042 UTC on FT8.
Decoded many stations in Argentina and Ecuador."

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - March 16, 2023 from OK1HH, F.K. Janda.

"The level of solar activity is only slightly lower than during the
last solar rotation, but this is especially true below the Sun's
equator. There is higher activity on the far side of the Sun.

"There was exceptional phenomenon recorded by coronagraphs on
satellites on March 13. It was a 'halo CME' that apparently left the
Sun at more than 3,000 km/s. Although the plasma cloud was not
heading towards Earth, it still touched it. We can't pinpoint its
source, but helioseismic maps show a pair of large active regions on
the far side of the Sun. Both will emerge within days on the eastern
limb of the solar disk.

"The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was recorded from the morning
of the 13th and ended on the 15th. In the next two days, the CME
impact triggered a geomagnetic storm at G1 and G2 levels. In doing
so, the attenuation in the polar cap - PCA - increased
significantly.

"Geomagnetic observatories recorded a high K index value of 6 on 15
March at 2322 UTC. Note: this CME was ejected into space by the
eruption of a magnetic filament on the Sun almost 4 days earlier.

"Shortwave propagation conditions were above average until 14 March
and deteriorated significantly on 15 March. However, due to
sufficiently high solar activity there was an improvement from 16
March onwards."

KM0T wrote:

"Finally got VP8 on 6M - Wednesday March 15.

"Been getting at least one and maybe two decodes from VP8NO and
VP8LP almost every day over the last week, but not enough to work,
seems always east coast, SE and Texas, some 6 land.

"Today, waiting in the wings, decoded a VP8 around 1700 UTC, kept
the beam that way and VP8LP came in at 1856 with -04 sigs. I got a
-20 report. I missed his initial CQ at 1854 which was +18! He
dropped down to -15 right after I worked him and then was gone. He
was in from 1854 to 1858, 4-minute window. Then one more single
decode him calling CQ at 1900 at -10, then gone.

"Anyway, it was short lived, then a few minutes later at 1909 UTC
VP8NO came in with +4 to -10 sigs till about 1918 UTC. I apparently
got his attention as Greg, W0LGQ in Council Bluffs EN21, south of me
told me on the phone that VP8NO was calling me back with a -12
report for a number of sequences, but I was getting no decodes by
then from him.

"Greg indicated as we compared notes, that WSJT FT8 signal reports
from VP8NO were consistently +10 dB better at EN21 then EN13 - 167
miles as the crow flies. We both run 6 over 6 so it's somewhat a
good comparison.

"Definitely short lived F2. From here, seems that TEP always ends
up dropping off mid country LU or CE, CX. Never that far south to
VP8.

"Well, now that I look at the DX Maps snapshot, it appears there may
have been an Es to TEP link on my side."

Tony, WA4JQS sent a message about working some New Zealand stations
on 29.6 MHz FM.

"Rich, N8UX and I have talked about this ever since FT8 came out. We
are seeing a lot of skewed path QSOs over the past few years. Today
the SFI was 157. I am thinking we have some prop paths or types we
did not know about until FT8. Of course, I could be wrong, but I
have seen some really strange paths the past few years with FT8. I
listened for 10 mins after I signed with the ZL2, and I was the only
one to hear and work him other than the VK3 and they were having
trouble getting the calls correct. While I had a pipeline, into the
South Island but then I find it strange that I heard no other VK or
ZL."

WB6MPH sent this very interesting link, providing an animated visual
rendering of predicted propagation:

https://dr2w.de/dx-propagation/

He also is interested in possible effects of planetary positions on
the Sun. Years ago I heard about J.H. Nelson of RCA and his work on
this subject, but thought that this article showed his conclusions
were affected by statistical artifacts, as outlined here:

https://bit.ly/42mbEtg

Greg Glenn sent this:

"Check out Frank Stefani's work. He is one of many who I read up
on. Stefani was a peer reviewer on my paper.

"https://www.hzdr.de/db/Cms?pOid=63352&pNid=0&pLang=en

"Recent Stefani technical paper:

"https://bit.ly/3ZUXm18

"Basically, Stefani suggests that even a very small gravitational
force exerted by the planets on the Sun can have an effect through
billions of years of resonance.

"I personally think that both gravitational, as well as
electromagnetic forces are at play. It's a solar 'system' and there
are multiple forces transferred between the orbiting planets and the
Sun.

"I write, along with Astronomer Gerald Pease, about the
gravitational force exerted by transfer of angular momentum here:

"https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.03553

"I then wrote about the possible Electromagnetic Connections here:

"https://arxiv.org/abs/1901.10574

"A prediction I made that came about:

"https://bit.ly/42kvVzp

"Thanks, Greg!"

Latest from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/gjrvLY-RU5Q

Solar explosions:

https://bit.ly/3liDO85

From news in India:

https://bit.ly/3JMJHnu

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to
tell us which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for March 9 through 15, 2023 were 155, 135, 126,
135, 87, 97, and 96, with a mean of 118.7. 10.7 cm flux was 178.8,
171.2, 157.4, 150, 143.3, 138.5, and 135.7, with a mean of 153.6.
Estimated planetary A indices were 17, 11, 7, 8, 3, 17, and 29, with
a mean of 13.1. Middle latitude A index was 14, 10, 5, 6, 2, 12, and
19, with a mean of 9.9.
NNNN
/EX


--- MBSE BBS v1.0.8 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: American Radio Relay League (3:633/280.2@fidonet)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP011
ARLP011 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP11
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 11 ARLP011

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA March 15, 2024
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP011
ARLP011 Propagation de K7RA

Six new sunspot groups appeared over the past reporting week, March
7-13, and one more on March 14.

The first group emerged on March 7, two more appeared on March 12,
and three more on March 13.

Solar activity was down. Average daily sunspot number went from
106.7 to 82.3, and solar flux from 147.4 to 130.4. Geomagnetic
indicators were somewhat quieter, with average daily planetary A
index dropping from 10 to 8.9, and middle latitude A index from 8 to
7.

The Vernal Equinox in the Northern Hemisphere is on Wednesday, March
20 at 0306 UTC. This marks a transition to Spring HF conditions,
always a positive effect.

I am not certain where we are in Solar Cycle 25, perhaps near the
peak, or the max could be next year.

Solar activity seems to be in the doldrums recently, and of course
we will only know when the peak has occurred six to twelve months
after it happens. This is because the official smoothed sunspot
number is a one year average. This erases lots of noise in the
graphic representation due to daily variations in sunspot numbers.

The outlook for the next few weeks shows continued low numbers, with
predicted solar flux at 135 on March 15-17, then 140, 145, 150 and
155 on March 18-21, 135 on March 22-23, then 132, 130, 132 and 138
on March 24-27, 140 on March 28-29, then 142, 140, 135, 130 and 128
on March 30 through April 3, and 125 on April 4-8, then 122, 118,
122, 125, 122, 127 and 130 on April 9-15, then 135 on April 16-19.

Predicted planetary A index is 12, 8 and 8 March 15-17, 5 on March
18-27, then 10 and 8 on March 28-29, 5 on March 30 through April 2,
and 12 on April 3-5, then 5, 10, 8 and 8 on April 6-9, then 5 on
April 10-23.

"Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - March 14, 2024.

"In the last seven days, there were repeated situations where we
expected a CME to hit the Earth's magnetic field (while a weak G1
class geomagnetic storm was predicted by NOAA), but there have been
at most only isolated upswings, with the planetary K index at 4. The
active region AR3599 returned to the solar disk, but it was much
smaller and less active than during the last solar rotation. It
produced at least a strong M7.4 class solar flare on March 10 at
1213 UTC.

"Shortly after AR3599 sets behind the southwestern limb of the solar
disk, the former AR3590 rises in the northeast. According to
helioseismological observations, it remains the largest of all on
the Sun's far side. Its activity will have a decisive influence on
the evolution of shortwave propagation around the approaching
equinox.

"Thirty-five years ago, at the peak of Solar Cycle 22, a powerful
CME hit our planet. It happened on March 13, 1989, and within 90
seconds, the entire Hydro-Quebec power grid was knocked out. The
outage lasted nine hours, millions of Quebecois were without light
and heat, and nine months later, the affected area experienced a
significant increase in birth rates. The treachery consists in
inducing direct currents into the lines, to which the transformers
in the alternating current grid offer little resistance.

"On March 13, 1989, the biggest storm of the space age occurred. But
the bigger one was the 'Carrington Event' of September 1859. It
produced a storm twice as powerful as the one mentioned in March
1989. It later turned out that the cause was not one, but two CMEs,
and came from the X4.5 eruptions of March 10 and M7.3 of March 12.

"F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH."


NASA-funded team of scientists discovered long-lasting radio
signals:

https://bit.ly/48VrH3F


Sunspot cluster responsible for monster flare spotted on far side of
the Sun:

https://bit.ly/3IDA5Kc


Recent videos from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/2nWLAYL01FA

https://youtu.be/v4wf-EjTN4k


Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Also, check this QST article about Solar Indices:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for March 7 through 13 2024 were 99, 91, 99, 77, 56,
68, and 86, with a mean of 82.3. 10.7 cm flux was 136.6, 129, 134.5,
127, 126.7, 130.5, and 128.3, with a mean of 130.4. Estimated
planetary A indices were 12, 11, 13, 7, 4, 6, and 9, with a mean of
8.9. Middle latitude A index was 8, 9, 11, 6, 4, 4, and 7, with a
mean of 7.
NNNN
/EX


--- MBSE BBS v1.0.8.4 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: American Radio Relay League (3:633/280.2@fidonet)