Subject: Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 27 March - 02 April 2023

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2023 Apr 03 0156 UTC
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# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
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Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
27 March - 02 April 2023

Solar activity reached high levels due to significant flaring from
Region 3256 (S22, L=001, class/area, Fho/340 on 28 Mar). Region 3256
produced: an X1.2 flare (R3-Strong) at 29/0233 UTC; an M5.4/1f flare (R2-Moderate) at 30/0737 UTC; an M1.2/1f flare (R1-Minor) at 29/1407
UTC; and an M1.1/1n flare (R1-Minor) at 29/2347 UTC. Region 3257
(S27, L=350, class/area, Hax/190 on 23 Mar) produced a C9.7/1f flare
at 31/2057 UTC. Region 3270 (S23, L=237, class/area, Dao/80 on 02
Apr) provided several low level C-class flares late in the highlight
period after its rapid development on 02 Apr.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit, however, the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux became slightly elevated following
the M5.4/1f flare from Region 3256 mentioned above. A peak value of
0.61 pfu was observed at the GOES-16 spacecraft at 30/1015 UTC,
remaining well below the 10 pfu alert threshhold (S1-Minor).

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels throughout the reporting period (27 Mar - 02 Apr).

Geomagnetic field activity reached G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm
levels on 31 Mar, with active levels on 30 Mar and 01-02 Apr, due to
recurrent, negative-polarity CH HSS influence. Quiet to unsettled
geomagnetic conditions were reported throughout the remainder of the
reporting period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
03 April - 29 April 2023

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels, with a chance
for C-class flare activity, until the return of Region 3256 on 12
Apr. Region 3256 was responsible for X-class and M-class flare
activity (R1-R3) on its previous transit across the visible solar
disk.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at high levels on 03-06 and 23-29 Apr. Moderate
levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1-Minor storm
levels on 20 and 27 Apr, active levels on 05, 10-11, 16, 18, 21, 26,
28-29 Apr due to influence from recurrent CH HSSs. Quiet to
unsettled conditions are anticipated for the remainder of the
outlook period.


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* Origin: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (3:633/280.2@fidonet)