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  • Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 01 - 07 May 2023

    From SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov@3:633/280.2 to All on Tue May 9 03:00:14 2023
    :Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    :Issued: 2023 May 08 0248 UTC
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    # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    #
    Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    01 - 07 May 2023

    Solar activity reached high levels on 01 and 03 May, moderate levels
    on 04, 05, and 07 May, and low levels on 02 and 06 May. A total of
    eleven M-flares were observed this period, of which were two R2
    (Moderate) events and nine R1 (Minor) events. The largest events
    were an M7 flare at 01/1309 UTC from Region 3288 (S23, L=267, class/area=Ehc/420 on 30 Apr) and an M7 flare at 03/1045 UTC from
    Region 3293 (N13, L=149, class/area=Dhc/290 on 03 May). Region 3296
    (N16, L=135, class/area=Dki/300 on 04 May) produced four R1 events
    over 04, 05, and 07 May. Earth-directed CMEs were detected following
    an M3 flare at 04/0844 UTC from Region 3296, a C9 flare at 05/0706
    UTC from Region 3297 (N08, L=119, class/area=Eki/500 on 04 May), and
    an M2 flare at 05/0801 UTC from Region 3296.

    No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
    high levels on 01-06 May and moderate levels on 07 May.

    Geomagnetic field activity reached G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm
    levels on 06 May due to CME passage and positive polarity CH HSS
    influences. Active conditions were observed on 01 May due to
    negative polarity CH HSS influences and again on 07 May due to
    positive polarity CH HSS influence and CME (from 04 May) passage.
    Quiet and quiet to unsettled levels were observed throughout the
    remainder of the week.

    Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    08 May - 03 June 2023

    Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate throughout the
    period with M-class flare activity (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)) likely
    over 08 May-03 Jun.

    No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
    expected to reach high levels on 11-20 May and 23 May-02 Jun. Normal
    to moderate levels are likely on 08-10, 21-22 May, and 03 Jun.

    Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1-G3 (Minor-Strong)
    storm levels on 08 May, and G1 (Minor) levels on 09 May, in response
    to CME (from 04 May) passage and positive polarity CH HSS
    influences. G1 (Minor) storms are likely again on 24 May, with
    active levels likely on 23 and 25-26 May, due to negative polarity
    CH HSS influences. Quiet and quiet to unsettled levels are expected
    to prevail throughout the remainder of the period.


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    * Origin: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (3:633/280.2@fidonet)