SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP021
ARLP021 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP21
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 21 ARLP021

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA May 26, 2023
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP021
ARLP021 Propagation de K7RA

Both average daily sunspot numbers and solar flux increased this
week. Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 118.6 to 133.4, while
average solar flux went from 143.2 to 161.2.

Geomagnetic indicators were more active. Average daily planetary A
index went from 9.6 to 17.1, while average middle latitude A index
rose from 9.6 to 14.4.

Predicted solar flux is 150 on May 26, 155 on May 27 and 28, then
150, 145, 140 and 135 on May 29 through June 1, 155 on June 2 to 4,
then 160, 165, 160, 155, and 150 on June 5 to 9, 145 on June 10 and
11, 150 on June 12, 155 on June 13 and 14, 160 on June 15, 165 on
June 16 and 17, then 160, 155 and 150 on June 18 to 20, 155 on June
21 and 22, then 160, 165 and 160 on June 23 to 25, 155 on June 26
and 27, 150 on June 28, and 155 on June 29 to July 1, then 160, 165
and 160 on July 2 to 4.

Predicted planetary A index is 15, 8, 5, 12 and 10 on May 26 to 30,
5 on May 31 through June 1, then 16, 8, 10 and 8 on June 2 to 5, 5
on June 6 to 15, then 12, 10, 5, 18, 22, 15 and 10 on June 16 to 22,
5 on June 23 to 28, then 16, 8, 10 and 8 on June 29 through July 2,
and 5 through the first week of July.

"Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - May 25, 2023

We've seen another seven days of turbulent developments on the Sun
and around the Earth. The large, seen even without binoculars
(e.g., eclipse glasses) visible sunspot group AR3310 in the southern
hemisphere was the source of the strongest flare on May 16 with an
X-ray event maximum of M9.6.

Another group AR3311 in the north, due to its unstable magnetic
field configuration "beta-gamma-delta", produced almost all the
other flares. The stronger ones were the cause of Dellinger events
(SWF = Shortwave fadeout, in the case of M9.6 it was registered in
the whole shortwave range in the region where the Sun was high).
Moreover, the eruptions, combined with sporadic E layer, often
significantly affected the propagation in the lower shortwave bands
by deep and irregular fadeouts.

SOHO recorded a rare conjunction on May 21, when a filament near the
Sun's north pole was ejected as a CME in direction to the Pleiades,
Seven Sisters star cluster. Coronagraph on SOHO has been operating
since 1995 and was the first to operate in real time. No one had
ever seen anything like it before.

Since May 24, we observed a new and rapidly growing group of spots,
AR3315, in which we can expect more major solar flares as time goes
on. So the turbulent evolution with changing and often worsening
shortwave propagation conditions continues.

F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH"

K7EG wrote:

"I have been in the DX hobby since 1950 and seem to see an
increasing, alarming recent trend in solar and geomagnetic activity
impacting trends in radio disturbances. Tell me I am wrong and it's
just a 'blip' but solar activity seems beyond the norm and
worsening."

I replied that with greater solar activity we should expect more
flares, solar wind, and disturbances. I think the disturbances are
normal and expected with the rising solar cycle.

When I suspect conditions are disturbed, this is where I check to
see what is happening in real time:

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index

Beautiful aurora: https://tinyurl.com/2zxdmpu6

Sunspot images: https://tinyurl.com/muaakxn9

https://www.popsci.com/science/sun-images-powerful-solar-telescope/

https://bit.ly/3MCqAwm

Thanks to NO6ED for this story about an undersea volcano disrupting
the ionosphere. https://bit.ly/428OAwM

This weekend is the CQ World Wide WPX CW Contest. https://www.cqwpx.com/rules.htm

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for May 18 through 24, 2023 were 121, 155, 138, 140,
97, 130, and 153, with a mean of 133.4. 10.7 cm flux was 150.6,
164.6, 169.6, 163.4, 161.5, 154.9, and 164.1, with a mean of 161.2.
Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 9, 35, 28, 21, 12, and 12,
with a mean of 17.1. Middle latitude A index was 8, 10, 26, 19, 17,
11, and 10, with a mean of 14.4.
NNNN
/EX


--- MBSE BBS v1.0.8 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: American Radio Relay League (3:633/280.2@fidonet)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP021
ARLP021 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP21
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 21 ARLP021

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA June 7, 2024
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP021
ARLP021 Propagation de K7RA

This reporting week (May 30 to June 5) our Sun was active, with nine new sunspot groups.

One emerged on May 30, another on May 31, two more on June 1, another on June 2, three more on June 3, and one more on June 4.

Average daily sunspot number rose from 124.6 to 183.4, and average daily solar flux from 164.8 to 184.8.

Predicted solar flux is 190 on June 7-9, 170 on June 10-19, 180 on June 20, 190 on June 21-23, 195 on June 24 and 25, 200 on June 26, 205 on June 27-29, 180 on June 30, then 185, 185 and 180 on July 1-3, 175 on July 4-7, 180 and 175 on July 8-9, and 170 on July 10-16.

Predicted planetary A index is 5, 10 and 8 on June 7-9, 5 on June 10-18, 8 on June 19-20, then 5, 8 and 8 on June 21-23, and 5 on June 24 to July 6, then 8, 10, and 8 on July 7-9, and 5 on July 10-15.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the agnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere - June 6, 2024 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

"The rise in solar activity is confirmed by the average sunspot number for May, 171.7, which is the highest in 22 years. Plugging this into the formula for calculating the smoothed 12-month average gives 127.8 for last November. As a consequence of the high solar activity, including CME flares, there were a large number of geomagnetic storms in May. The largest of these occurred on 10-11 May, while accompanied by auroras, easily observable even at
mid-latitudes.

"Shortwave conditions were above average on only six days out of the entire month of May, and mostly poor on half of the days in response to a total of seven one- to three-day disturbed intervals. The worst day was May 11. In addition, a summertime sporadic-E layer contributed to the erratic development, especially in the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.

"While the two large sunspot groups, AR3663 and AR3664 (AR3691 and AR3697 in June), continue to have a magnetic configuration conducive to the production of large flares, there are fewer of them than in May, and the evolution of propagation conditions is therefore more regular, and the occurrence of above-average days is more frequent.
The number of sunspot groups increased from seven to twelve during the first six days of June.

"Although the sunspot number and the solar flux (which is the power flux of solar radio noise at the 10.7 cm wavelength) may still be increasing, a repeat of the large disturbances experienced in May is unlikely in the near term."

On June 3, Glenn Packard, K4ZOT, wrote:

"I just received your Propagation Report and was reading it when a near miracle happened. Hawaii 6M FT8 station (KH6HI) came in on my JTAlert program here - South of Atlanta, GA - 06/3. Also, worked several west Coast stations (VE7DX, KF7PG, etc.) as well in rapid succession before the band changed. Very rare indeed to even hear a HI station in Atlanta."

An article about Astrophotographer Andrew McCarthy:

https://mymodernmet.com/andrew-mccarthy-sunspot-time-lapse/ [ https://mymodernmet.com/andrew-mccarthy-sunspot-time-lapse/ ]

The latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/8WzEbOeWVfk [ https://youtu.be/8WzEbOeWVfk ]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net [ mailto:k7ra@arrl.net ] . When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation [ http://www.arrl.org/propagation ] and the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals [ http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals ] . For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere [ http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere ] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation [ http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation ] . More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ [ http://k9la.us/ ] .

Also, check this QST article about Solar Indices:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt [ https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt ]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins [ http://arrl.org/bulletins ] .

Sunspot numbers for May 30 through June 5, 2024 were 144, 135, 194, 186, 208, 224, and 193, with a mean of 183.4. 10.7 cm flux was 172.9, 179.4, 188, 179.8, 186, 192.3, and 195.3, with a mean of 184.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 12, 5, 5, 11, 8, and 7, with a mean of 8. Middle latitude A index was 10, 14, 6, 5, 13, 8, and 10, with a mean of 9.4.
NNNN
/EX

ARRL The National Association for Amateur Radio®
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