Subject: Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 19 - 25 June 2023

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2023 Jun 26 0339 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
19 - 25 June 2023

Solar activity ranged from low to high levels. Low levels were
observed on 23 and 25 Jun. Moderate levels were observed on 19,
21-22, and 24 Jun whereas high levels were observed on 20 Jun.
Region 3341 (S16, L=207, class/area Cso/200 on 23 Jun) was
responsible for the majority of the M-class activity along with an
X1.1 Tenflare (480 sfu at 2695 MHz) at 20/1709 UTC which had
associated Type II (1057 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps along with a
CME off the Eastern limb at 20/1712 UTC. WSA/ENLIL analysis
indicated the potential for a grazing blow late on 23 Jun to early
on 24 Jun. Region 3341 produced a total of four M1 flares and one X1
flare. Regions 3337 (N20, L=262, class/area Cso/120 on 21 Jun), 3340
(N23, L=233, class/area Ekc/300 on 25 Jun), and 3342 (S22, L=343,
class/area Dao/070 on 20 Jun) also contributed to M-class flare
activity. Region 3340 produced an M4 at 22/2344 UTC with associated
Type II (534 km/s) and IV radio sweeps along with an associated CME
off the SE limb at 23/0414 UTC. The CME was determined to not have
an Earth-directed component. Region 3340 developed a Beta-Delta
magnetic configuration on 25 Jun as moderate growth and
consolidation was observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels on 19-20 and 22-24 Jun due to CH HSS influence. The peak
flux was 2,550 pfu observed at 22/1540 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) storm
levels. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed from 19-23 Jun as
solar wind parameters remained slightly enhanced between 390-485
km/s and total field ranged from 5-8 nT. On 24-25 Jun, solar wind
parameters became enhanced, possibly due to the aforementioned CME
from the X1 flare. Total field ranged from 5-12 nT while solar wind
speed values increased to near 535 km/s. The geomagnetic field
responded with active to G1 (Minor) storming late on 24 Jun through
early on 25 Jun.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
26 June - 22 July 2023

Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels on 26
Jun-22 Jul.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reach high levels on 14-21 Jul due to CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled or active
levels on 26 Jun-03 Jul, 8-9 Jul, and 12-22 Jul with G1 (Minor)
storm levels likely on 12 Jul and G2 (Moderate) levels likely on 13
Jul due to recurrent CH HSS activity.


--- MBSE BBS v1.0.8 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (3:633/280.2@fidonet)