Subject: Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 07 - 13 August 2023

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2023 Aug 14 0226 UTC
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# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
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Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
07 - 13 August 2023

Solar activity reached high levels on 07 Aug with three M-class
flares (R1/Minor) observed in addition to an X1.5 flare (R3/Strong)
at 07/2046 UTC from Region 3386 (N11, L=096, class/area=Dki/250 on
06 Aug); the largest event of the period. Moderate activity levels
were observed on 08 Aug with an M3.6/Sf flare observed from Region
3387 (N20, L=069, class/area=Dsi/140 on 06 Aug). Low levels of
activity were observed throughout the remainder of the week, with
the bulk of C-class activity originating from Regions 3394 (S22,
L=342, class/area=Dho/270 on 09 Aug) and 3395 (N13, L=331,
class/area=Dai/180 on 12 Aug) over 09-13 Aug.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux exceeded 10 pfu (S1/Minor)
following west limb flare activity on 07 Aug. The S1 event began at
08/0115 UTC, reached a peak of 47 pfu at 09/0025 UTC, and ended at
10/0950 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux slowly decayed
following the end of S1 levels and returned to background levels on
13 Aug.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels on 09-13 Aug, with normal to moderate levels observed on
07-08 Aug.

Geomagnetic field activity reached active levels late 07 Aug and
early 08 Aug due to an enhanced solar wind environment associated
with the arrival of a CME from 04 Aug. Quiet and unsettled levels
were observed on 09 Aug due to residual CME effects, and again on 10
and 12 Aug due to negative polarity CH HSS influences. Quiet levels
were observed on 11 and 13 Aug under nominal solar wind conditions.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
14 August - 09 September 2023

Solar activity is likely to reach moderate to high levels over 17
Aug-03 Sep due to the expected return of multiple regions which
produced event-level flares on their previous rotations. Low levels
of solar activity are expected to prevail throughout the remainder
of the period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reach high levels on 17-22, 27-28 Aug, and 07-09 Sep.
Normal to moderate levels are expected throughout the remainder of
the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be reach active levels on
16-18, and 26 Aug due to recurrent CH HSS influences. Quiet and
quiet to unsettled levels are expected to prevail throughout the
remainder of the period.


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* Origin: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (3:633/280.2@fidonet)