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  • Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 22 - 28 January 20

    From SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov@3:633/280.2 to All on Tue Jan 30 05:00:16 2024
    Subject: Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 22 - 28 January 2024

    :Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    :Issued: 2024 Jan 29 0253 UTC
    # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
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    # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    #
    Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    22 - 28 January 2024

    Solar activity was at low to high levels this period. High levels
    were observed on 22 January with seven R1 (minor) flares observed
    from Regions 3559 (N27, L=288, class/area Fki/520 on 23 Jan) and
    3561 (S17, L=327, class/area Dac/220 on 23 Jan). The largest of
    these flares was an M3.4 from Region 3461 at 22/2121 UTC. On 23
    January, nine R1 (minor) and one R2 (moderate) flares were observed
    from Regions 3559 and 3561. The largest flare was an R2 (moderate)
    M5.1 from region 3559 at 23/0331 UTC. Moderate levels were observed
    on 24 January with four R1 (minor) flares observed, the largest an
    M2.6 from Region 3561 at 24/0140 UTC. Low levels were observed on
    25-28 January. A Type II radio sweep, with a speed of 648 km/s, was
    observed at 28/0228 UTC. Location of this was suspected to be from a
    region behind the ENE limb.

    No 10 MeV proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. An
    enhancement of 7.14 pfu was observed at 22/1655 UTC, most likely
    from R1 (minor) flare activity from Region 3559.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
    low to moderate levels through the period.

    Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet with isolated unsettled
    and active periods due to weak CME activity on 22-24 Jan and initial
    influence from a negative polarity CH HSS late on 28 Jan.

    Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    29 January - 24 February 2024

    Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate
    (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) levels on 29-31 Jan due primarily to the
    flare potential of Region 3559. Low levels are expected on 01-11
    Feb. An increased chance for moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) levels
    is possible on 12-24 Feb as Region 3559 rotates back onto the
    visible disk.

    No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
    expected to reach high levels on 01-03 Feb due to CH HSS influence.
    Low to moderate levels are expected from 28-31 Jan and 04-24 Feb.

    Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to
    isolated active periods on 29-31 Jan and 05-06 Feb due to recurrent
    CH HSS activity. Mostly quiet levels are expected on 01-04 and 07
    -24 Feb.


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    * Origin: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (3:633/280.2@fidonet)