Subject: Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 19 - 25 February 2024

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2024 Feb 26 0223 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
19 - 25 February 2024

Solar activity reached high levels on 21 and 22 Feb and moderate
levels on 23-25 Feb. The strongest of these events was an X6.3
(R3-Strong) flare at 22/2234 UTC, the strongest so far of the
current solar cycle, from Region 3590 (N18, L=223,
class/area=Fkc/1450 on 25 Feb), the largest region of the solar
cycle so far. The region was responsible for two of other X-class
flares, an X1.2 at 21/2307 UTC and an X1.7/2b at 22/0632 UTC, as
well as 10 M-class (R1-Minor) flares. Despite the pronounced
increase in flare activity, no Earth-directed CMEs were associated
with the events from the Region. A Type II radio sweep on 21 Feb as
well as a Type II and IV radio sweep on 22 Feb were both associated
with events that were off the Sun-Earth line. While there were 13
other numbered active regions on the visible disk this week, they
were either quiet or only produced C-class X-ray events.

Other activity included a filament eruption in the NW quadrant
beginning around 21/1500 UTC. Analysis and modeling suggested a
glancing blow would be possible around 25 Feb.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet through 23 Feb, with a
single isolated period of unsettled observed late on 20 Feb due weak
transient influence. Late on 24 Feb, the arrival of a CME from the
filament eruption on 21 Feb was observed. The geomagnetic field
responded with unsettled conditions that would persist through 25
Feb.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
26 February - 23 March 2024

Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) through 02 Mar, when Region 3590 (N18, L=223, class/area=Fkc/1450 on 25 Feb) rotates off the visible disk. While
flare potential will likely decrease substantially from 02 Mar
through the end of the period, a chance for M-class activity will
remain due to multiple significant regions on the far side of the
Sun due to rotate back onto the visible disk.

There is a slight chance for proton events (S1-Minor) at
geosynchronous orbit through 02 Mar due to the flare potential of
Region 3590.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled levels on
26-28 Feb due to negative polarity CH HSS influence. The remainder
of the outlook period is likely to mostly quiet.


--- MBSE BBS v1.0.8.4 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (3:633/280.2@fidonet)