Subject: Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 26 February - 03 March 2024

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2024 Mar 04 0255 UTC
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# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
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Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
26 February - 03 March 2024

Solar activity reached moderate levels on 28 Feb as Region 3590
(N18, L=223, class/area=Fkc/1450 on 25 Feb) produced a long-duration
M1.5 (R1-Minor) flare at 28/1854 UTC. A subsequent CME associated
with the flare was analyzed and the model results suggested the
ejecta was off the Sun-Earth line. A filament eruption, centered
near S11E30, was observed starting around 28/0900 UTC. It produced
Type II radio sweep along with a C5.1/Sf flare at 28/0909 UTC. A
subsequent CME signature in SOHO/LASCO C2. Analysis and modeling of
the event suggested arrival late on 03 Mar. The remaining 11 active
regions on the visible disk were either quiet or produced only
C-class X-ray activity.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G2 (Moderate)
geomagnetic storm levels. A period of sustained southward Bz, which
reached -7 nT, was observed for a few hours on late on 26 Feb and
into 27 Feb. The geomagnetic field responded with an isolated period
of G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm levels. As the solar wind returned
to nominal conditions, quiet to unsettled levels followed through 02
Mar. The arrival of a coronal mass ejection that left the Sun on 28
Feb was observed just before midday on 03 Mar. Total magnetic field
strength increased to a peak of 19 nT and the Bz component was
oriented far southward (down to -18 nT). Solar wind speeds remained
relatively low with speeds averaging near 350 km/s. The geomagetic
field response reached G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels during
the 03/1800-2100 UTC synoptic period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
04 March - 30 March 2024

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for
R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts throughout the outlook
period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be normal to moderate levels throughout the outlook
period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to active
levels. Active levels are expected on 04 Mar in response to waning
influence from a CME that left the Sun on 28 Feb. Unsettled
conditions are likely on 10-11 Mar and 28 Mar due to multiple,
recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to
be mostly quiet.


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* Origin: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (3:633/280.2@fidonet)