Subject: Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 04 - 10 March 2024

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2024 Mar 11 0558 UTC
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# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
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Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
04 - 10 March 2024

Solar activity was at low to moderate levels. Region 3599 (S13,
L=067, class/area Dai/220 on 09 Mar) produced two M-class flares.
The first was an impulsive M1.3/Sf at 08/2126 UTC. The second was an
M7.4 flare at 10/1213 UTC with an associated 340 sfu Tenflare, a
Type II radio sweep (714 km/s), a weak Castelli U radio signature,
and a CME directed off the NW limb at 10/1248 UTC. Initial modelling
of the CME indicated no Earth-directed component, however further
analysis is on-going. A faint partial halo was observed beginning at
10/1812 UTC in coronagraph imagery, likely related to a C6.9/1f
flare at 10/1538 UTC from Region 3599. Initial analysis showed a
glancing blow around midday on 13 Mar.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. A slight
enhancement to near 0.4 pfu was observed following the M7.4 flare at
10/1213 UTC.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels with a peak flux of 739 pfu observed at
10/1935 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. The
period began under the influence of CME activity that left the Sun
on 28 Feb. Total field reached 13 nT early on 04 Mar and diminished
to 5-7 nT by 05 Mar. Solar wind speed gradually increased from
approximately 350 km/s to near 460 km/s during this time. The
geomagnetic field responded with quiet to active levels on 04 Mar
and quiet to unsettled levels on 05 Mar. Solar wind speed continued
in the 350-460 km/s range through early on 08 Mar. Quiet to
unsettled levels were observed on 06-07 Mar. By 08 Mar, solar wind
speed increased to around 515 km/s due to negative polarity coronal
hole high speed stream (CH HSS) activity. Solar wind speed slowly
decreased thereafter to near 410 km/s by the end of the period. The
geomagnetic field responded with quiet to active levels on 08-09 Mar
and quiet to unsettled levels on 10 Mar.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
11 March - 06 April 2024

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels with a
chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares on 11-14 Mar due
primarily to the flare potential of Region 3599. Quiet to unsettled
levels are expected on 15-26 Mar. On 27 Mar-06 Apr, a chance for
M-class flares is once again likely as Region 3599 returns to the
visible disk.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to continue at normal to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled on 11-12
Mar due to CH HSS activity and unsettled to active levels on 13 Mar
due to possible influence from the 10 Mar CME. Unsettled levels are
likely again on 28-29 Mar and 03-05 Apr due to recurrent CH HSS
activity.


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* Origin: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (3:633/280.2@fidonet)