Subject: Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 05 - 11 August 2024

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2024 Aug 12 0219 UTC
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# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
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Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
05 - 11 August 2024

Solar activity was ranged from moderate to high levels. 34 events,
which ranged from R1-R3 (Minor-Strong), were observed during the
week. Region 3767 (S10, L=318, class/area=Dso/beta on 27 Jul)
produced the strongest flare of the period, an X1.7/Sf at 05/1340
UTC. Two other regions produced X-class activity with an X1.1/2b at
05/1527 UTC from Region 3780 (S12, L=173, class/area=Fkc/1280 on 09
Aug) and an X1.3/2b flare at 08/1935 UTC from Region 3777 (S09,
L=209, class/area=Ekc/460 on 09 Aug).

CME activity observed over 07-08 Aug from multiple sources were
analyzed and considered likely to be Earth-directed with a transit
time of 3-4 days. An additional CME associated with an M5
(R2-Moderate) flare at 10/0237 UTC produced a faint halo signature
first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 10/0312 UTC. Analysis and
modeling suggested arrival on 12 Aug.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux observed at geosynchronous orbit
became slightly enhanced over 05-06 Aug, but well below the 10 pfu
(S1-Minor) threshold due to energetic activity on the Sun's
farside.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal background levels.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) storm
levels. G1 conditions were observed on 11 Aug, likely due to the
influence of passing CMEs that left the Sun over 07-08 Aug. Total
magnetic field strength increased to ~11 nT on 10 Aug and increased
to a peak of 21 nT on 11 Aug. Solar wind speeds steadily climbed
during that time from ~350 km/s to just over 500 km/s at the end of
11 Aug. The Bz component was primarily oriented neutral or northward
which resulted in a limited geomagnetic response. A brief period of
-20 nT was observed during the final hour of 11 Aug. The remainder
of the summary period was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
12 August - 07 September 2024

Solar activity is expected to reach moderate (R2-Moderate)
conditions, with a chance for R3-Strong events, over 12-18 Aug due
to multiple complex regions on the visible disk. R1 (Minor)
conditions remain likely on most days through the end of the outlook
period due to the anticipated return of multiple complex regions
from the Sun's farside.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal background to moderate levels throughout
the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G2 (Moderate) levels
on 12 Aug due to the passing of multiple CMEs from 08 Aug and 10
Aug. As CME influence wanes, active conditions over 14 Aug are
likely to decrease to unsettled levels over 14-15 Aug. Unsettled
conditions are again likely on 22-23 Aug in response to a recurrent
CH HSS. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at quiet
levels, excluding any CMEs that have yet to erupt with an
Earth-directed component.


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* Origin: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (3:633/280.2@fidonet)