Subject: Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 26 August - 01 September 2024

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2024 Sep 02 0154 UTC
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# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
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Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
26 August - 01 September 2024

Solar activity ranged from low to high levels. Low levels were
observed on 28-29 Aug; moderate levels were observed on 26-27 Aug
and 30-31 Aug; high levels were observed on 01 Sep. The strongest
event of the reporting period was a long-duration M5.5 (R2-Moderate)
flare at 01/1322 UTC from a yet to be numbered region rotating
around the SE limb. A large CME was associated with the flare but
given its proximity to the limb, the primary body of the ejecta is
not expected to be Earth-directed. Two other regions produced R1
(Minor) events, Region 3796 (S03, L=353, class/area=Dki/380 on 23
Aug and Region 3806 (S11, L=212, class/area=Ekc/480 on 31 Aug).

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit rose
above background levels, but still well below event threshold,
following the M5.5 flare from the SE limb on 01 Sep.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G2 (Moderate)
geomagnetic storm levels. Quiet conditions were observed on 26 Aug.
Unsettled to active levels on 27 Aug marked the arrival of a CME
that left the Sun on 23 Aug. Total magnetic field strength initially
increased to the lower teens. G2 conditions on 28 Aug were observed
following a further increase in total field to 18 nT, with the Bz
component reaching as far south as -15 nT. Total field maintained in
the upper teens over Aug 29, however, slow solar wind speeds and a predominantly northward Bz resulted in quiet geomagnetic conditions.
Further transient activity was observed over 30 Aug - 01 Sep, with
modest wind speeds mostly between ~350-440 km/s. However, the Bz
component of the magnetic field was sustained southward from 30 Aug
- 01 Sep, which resulted in G1 (Minor) activity on 30-31 Aug and
active conditions 01 Sep.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
02 September - 28 September 2024

Solar activity is likely to be at moderate levels
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), with a slight chance for X-class events
(R3-Strong), throughout the outlook period due to complex regions on
the visible disk as well as the anticipated return of complex
regions from the Sun's farside.

There is a chance for proton events at geosynchronous orbit on 02-03
Sep due to an M5.5 flare from the SE limb on 01 Sep. An increase in
proton flux was observed following the event and there is potential
for a gradual climb to the S1 (minor) threshold over the next couple
of days.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G1
(Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. G1 conditions are forecast on
27-28 Sep; active conditions are likely on 28 Sep, and unsettled
levels are likely on 02 Sep, 08 Sep, and 17-18 Sep. All increases in geomagnetic activity are from anticipated recurrent features in the
solar wind. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be
mostly quiet.


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* Origin: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (3:633/280.2@fidonet)