Subject: Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 25 November - 01 December 2024

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2024 Dec 02 0252 UTC
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# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
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Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
25 November - 01 December 2024

Solar activity ranged from low to high levels this period. R1
(Minor) and R2 (Moderate) radio blackouts were observed on 25 Nov,
with an isolated R1 (Minor) event observed on 27 Nov. The largest
event of the period was the M9.4 (R2) flare at 25/0742 UTC, produced
by Region 3910 (N16, L=111, class/area Dko/250 on 28 Nov) when it
was still just beyond the NE limb. This event had an associated 10cm
radio burst (210 sfu) at 25/0734 UTC. Region 3910 also produced an
M1.5 flare at 25/1707 UTC. Region 3906 (S16, L=158, class/area
Dai/240 on 23 Nov) was responsible for three of the R1 events: an
M1.1 at 25/0159 UTC, an M1.8 at 25/0453 UTC, and an M1.0 at 25/1636
UTC. Region 3901 (S08, L=218, class/area Dao/200) produced two R1
events: an M1.9/Sf flare at 25/2054 UTC and an M1.0 flare at 27/1246
UTC respectively. The M1.9/Sf had an associated Type II radio sweep
with an estimated speed of 591 km/s. Region 3905 (S09, L=164,
class/area Eso/120 on 23 Nov) produced an isolated M2.0 flare on 25
Nov at 1212 UTC. During the period, a total of 53 C-class and 7
M-flares were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to an isolated G1
(Minor) geomagnetic storm period. Unsettled levels were observed on
25, 26, 29 Nov and 01 Dec. On 25-26 Nov, the field was influenced by
waning negative coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects. The
unsettled periods on 29 Nov and the isolated period of G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storming on 30 Nov, were likely associated with arrival
of the CME that left the Sun on 25 Nov. The isolated unsettled
period on 01 Dec was likely associated with the possible interaction
with the heliospheric current sheet. The solar wind environment saw
a few minor enhancements during the highlight period. Total field
mainly averaged between 5-7 nT, with isolated peaks near 14-16 nT,
likely the result of the arrival of the aforementioned CME. The Bz
component varied between +/-6 nT with a couple of southward
deviations to -10 nT. The solar wind field was fairly consistent
between 330-485 km/s. The phi angle was in a negative sector through
early 29 Nov before oscillating between positive and negative
orientations late on 29 Nov and again on 30 Nov before remaining in
a positive sector through the rest of the highlight period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
02 December - 28 December 2024

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels (R1- Minor), with a
chance for moderate levels (R2 - Moderate) from 02 Dec - 15 Dec,
then be at low to moderate levels (R1/R2 - Minor/Moderate), with a
chance for high levels (R3 - Strong) from 16 Dec - 28 Dec as several magnetically complex regions are due to return.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. However,
there is a chance for proton activity following significant solar
flare activity during the outlook period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to be at unsettled periods on
02 Dec (residual CME activity). Unsettled to active periods are
likely on 10-14 Dec due to influence from recurrent positive coronal
hole effects, and 16-20 Dec due to a recurrent negative coronal
hole. Mostly quiet periods are likely on 03-09 Dec, 15 Dec, and
21-28 Dec.


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* Origin: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (3:633/280.2@fidonet)