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  • Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 01 - 07 December 2

    From SWPC.Webmaster@3:633/10 to All on Mon Dec 8 13:00:06 2025
    Subject: Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 01 - 07 December 2025

    :Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    :Issued: 2025 Dec 08 0210 UTC
    # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
    # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
    # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
    #
    # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    #
    Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    01 - 07 December 2025

    Solar activity reached high levels this period. Region 4299 (N21,
    L=268, class/area=Dai/220 on 07 Dec) produced an X1.9/1n flare at
    01/0249 UTC; the strongest flare of the period. Other notable
    activity included an M8.1/2b flare at 06/2039 UTC, also from Region
    4299, which produced an full-halo CME that is expected to arrive
    between late 08 Dec-midday 09 Dec. A CME, first visible in LASCO C2
    imagery beginning at 04/0648 UTC off the SE, arrived at Earth late
    on 07 Dec.

    The greater than 10 MeV proton flux became elevated above background
    levels late 06 Dec-late 07 Dec following the M8.1 flare at 06/2039
    UTC from AR4299, but did not reach event levels.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
    normal to moderate levels on 04 Dec, with high levels obserbed
    throughout the remainder of the period.

    Geomagnetic field activity reached active levels on 01 Dec in
    response to positive polarity CH HSS influences. Quiet to unsettled
    levels were observed on 02 Dec as CH HSS influences subsided.
    Periods of G1-G3 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming were observed
    on 03 Dec, with G1 storm periods observed on 04 Dec, due to CIR and
    negative polarity CH HSS influences. Quiet and unsettled levels were
    observed on 05 Dec, with active conditions observed on 06 Dec, as
    negative polarity CH HSS influences waned. Active levels were
    observed again on 07 Dec in response to the passage of a CME from 04
    Dec.

    Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    08 December - 03 January 2026

    M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely, with a slight
    chance for X-class flares (R3/Strong or greater), through much of
    the outlook period.

    There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to
    reach 10 pfu (S1-Minor) through much of the outlook period.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high
    levels on 08-09, 12-13, 16-17, 25-29 Dec, and 01-03 Jan. Normal to
    moderate levels are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of
    the outlook period.

    Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) storm
    levels on 08 and 10 Dec, with G2-G3 (Moderate-Strong) storming
    likely on 09 Dec, due to the anticipated arrival and passage of a
    CME that left the Sun on 06 Dec. Periods of G1 storming are likely
    on 21-23 Dec in response to negative polarity CH HSS influences, and
    again on 24-26 Dec under positive polarity CH HSS influences. Period
    of G2 (Moderate) storms are likely on 30 Dec, with G1 storming
    likely on 31 Dec, when negative polarity CH HSS influences are
    anticipated.


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