Subject: Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 19 - 25 September 2022

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2022 Sep 26 0155 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
19 - 25 September 2022

Solar activity reached moderate levels this week with three M-class
flares observed during the period. Region 3102 (S25, L=298,
class/area Eki/320 on 18 Sep) produced an M1.0/1n flare at 20/1122
UTC. Region 3107 (S25, L=113, class/area Fai/240 on 24 Sep) produced
an M1.0 at 21/0702 UTC. This was followed by the largest event of
the period, an M1.7/Sf at 23/1810 UTC from Region 3110 (N16, L=158,
class/area Dhi/320 on 25 Sep). Associated with this event were Type
II (est. 2453 km/s S.V.) and Type IV signatures. During the period,
a total of 62 C-class and 3 M-class flares were recorded. In
addition to Regions 3102, 3107 and 3110, C-class activity was also
observed from Regions 3105 (S17, L=210, class/area Dki/490 on 22
Sep) and 3109 (N10, L=257, class/area Dro/040 on 23 Sep). Numerous
CME signatures, off of both limbs, were observed in coronagraph
imagery throughout the week, but none were determined to have
Earth-directed components.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit, although the
10 Mev proton flux was slightly elevated above background levels.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels on 19-24 Sep and high levels on 25 Sep
with a peak flux of 2,130 pfu observed at 25/1555 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity mostly ranged from quiet to unsettled
levels with an isolated active period early on 24 September. Quiet
to unsettled periods were observed on 19-20 September under weak,
diminishing, negative polarity coronal hole high stream influence.
Quiet levels were observed on 21 and 22 September, with the
exception of an isolated unsettled period late on 22 September.
Unsettled to isolated active conditions persisted on 24 and 25
September under weak, positive polarity coronal hole high speed
stream influence.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
26 September - 22 October 2022

Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class
(R1-R2, Minor to Moderate) flare activity on 26 September to 04
October and from 08-22 October due to current active regions on the
visible disk and returning, active regions.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reach high levels on 26-28 September, 03-12 October and
22 October in response to CH HSS influences.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled levels on
27-28 September, 01-06 October, 16-17 October, with active levels
possible on 01-05 October and 20-21 October. G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate)
levels are possible on 01-04 October as well. This enhanced activity
is due to CH HSS influences.


--- MBSE BBS v1.0.8 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (3:633/280.2@fidonet)