SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP040
ARLP040 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP40
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 40 ARLP040

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA October 7, 2022
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP040
ARLP040 Propagation de K7RA

Sunspot numbers and solar flux increased this week (September 29
through October 5), as expected with the solar cycle progressing
toward a probable peak in summer 2025.

Average daily sunspot number increased from 105.1 to 111.4, and
average daily 10.7 cm solar flux from 138.4 to 149.2.

Compare this to a year ago, when average daily sunspot number was
just 59.4 and solar flux was 89.8.

This last week there were two new sunspot groups on September 30,
one more on October 1, three on October 3, and one more on Thursday,
October 6.

I have been noticing improved 10 meter propagation with openings
lasting all day, now that the autumnal equinox passed two weeks ago
and with higher sunspot numbers.

Predicted solar flux is 156 on October 7, 154 on October 8 and 9,
then 152 and 150 on October 10 and 11, 148 on October 12 to 14, 130
on October 15, 135 on October 16 and 17, 140 on October 18, 145 on
October 19 to 21, 150 on October 22 and 23, then 145, 140 and 135 on
October 24 to 26, 145 on October 27 and 28, 150 on October 29, 155
on October 30 and 31, 145 on November 1, 135 on November 2 to 4, 130
on November 5 and 6, 135 on November 7, 140 on November 8 and 9, 130
on November 10 and 11 and 135 on November 12 and 13.

Predicted planetary A index is 14, 10, 12 and 8 on October 7 to 10,
5 on October 11 to 13, 8 on October 14, 10 on October 15 and 16,
then 8 on October 17 to 19, 12 on October 20 and 21, 8 on October 22
to 29, then 20, 12 and 10 on October 30 through November 1, then 8
on November 2 to 10 and 10 on November 11 and 12.

On October 2, Spaceweather.com announced "A Big Dangerous Sunspot",
AR3112, one of the biggest in years had just rotated over the sun's
eastern horizon. They predict this could produce two weeks of high
solar activity.

F. K. Janda, OK1HH reports, "A week ago it seemed that following
conditions would be calmer. This assumption was shattered after
AR3112 sunspot group, with its complex magnetic structure, began to
appear on the northeastern edge of the solar disk.

Prior to that, we expected the earth to be hit by a fast solar wind
from a CME that left the sun on September 28, but only a slight
increase in geomagnetic activity followed on September 28 and
October 2.

However, we did get an X1 flare on October 2 at 2025 UTC, which
ironically did not originate from the large dangerous AR3112 group,
but from the smaller and apparently less threatening AR3110 active
region. It amplified the SWF (shortwave fade out) in the Pacific
and parts of North America. Apparently, it blasted a CME into
space.

This development was followed by the introduction of AR3112 with
over a dozen dark nuclei scattered over 130,000 km of the solar
disk.

It remained the case that most of the incoming CMEs were hurled into
space by the AR3110 group of spots, in which we observed a series of
strong flares (M5.9, M8.7, X1) over the weekend.

As a result, several CMEs headed towards Earth.

However, the geomagnetic field was only steady to active in the
following days.

Not only does the chance for energetic flares in the AR3112 region
persist, but on October 4, a 200,000 km long magnetic filament
erupted in the southern hemisphere of the Sun. The plasma clouds
are not heading directly towards Earth, but some could hit on 8
October."

Big filament.

https://bit.ly/3fOl4KC

https://bit.ly/3ejTEeZ

The latest from WX6SWW, Space Weather Woman Dr. Tamitha Skov.

https://youtu.be/MFOsaEV4CME

https://youtu.be/ZVSO0grZ5ek

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for September 29 through October 5, 2022 were 56,
74, 100, 102, 144, 153, and 151, with a mean of 111.4. 10.7 cm flux
was 137.2, 137.1, 147.9, 153.9, 155.1, 152.4, and 161, with a mean
of 149.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 13, 3, 12, 24, 16,
and 14, with a mean of 12.7. Middle latitude A index was 7, 12, 2,
9, 16, 13, and 11, with a mean of 10.
NNNN
/EX


--- MBSE BBS v1.0.8 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: American Radio Relay League (3:633/280.2@fidonet)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP040
ARLP040 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP40
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 40 ARLP040

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA October 6, 2023
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP040
ARLP040 Propagation de K7RA

At 2308 UTC on October 5, the Australian Space Weather Forecasting
Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning.

"A recent, mild CME impact, combined with the expected arrival of a
coronal hole high speed wind stream on 7 Oct, gives the chance for
G1 geomagnetic conditions over 6 and 7 Oct."

Seven new sunspot groups emerged over the past week, but overall
solar activity declined.

With consecutive dates you can initiate an animation using the back
and forward buttons on your browser.

We are currently enjoying improved HF propagation with the change of
seasons after the autumnal equinox. This is particularly noticeable
on 12 and 10 meters.

Here is an optimistic news story about the current solar cycle.

https://cdapress.com/news/2023/oct/02/were-strong-solar-cycle/

https://bit.ly/3RMPjT1

One new sunspot group appeared on September 30, three more on
October 1, and one on each of the following days, October 2, 3 and
4. On October 5, two more sunspot groups appeared, and the daily
sunspot number shot up to 179, the highest since September 26.
Previously, a high of 219 was on July 12.

Average daily sunspot number declined from 170.6 to 128.6, while
average daily solar flux went from 168.8 to 155.6.

Geomagnetic indicators were quieter. Average daily planetary A
index went from 17 to 9.1, and average daily middle latitude A index
declined from 13.7 to 8.9.

The outlook for the next month has predicted solar flux at 158 on
October 6 and 7, 155, 152, 152, 150 and 145 on October 8 to 12, 158
on October 13 and 14, 156 on October 15 to 17, 154 on October 18 to
20, 152 on October 21, 154 on October 22 and 23, 156 and 158 on
October 24 and 25, 160 on October 26 to 28, 162 on October 29 to 31,
then 164 on November 1 to 3, 168 on November 4, 165 on November 5
and 6, 162 and 160 on November 7 and 8, 158 on November 9 and 10,
and 156 on November 11 to 13.

Predicted planetary A index is 18, 25, 10 and 5 on October 6 to 9, 8
on October 10 and 11, 5 on October 12 to 21, then 10 and 8 on
October 22 to 23, 5 on October 24 to 28, then 15, 12, 8, 15 and 8 on
October 29 through November 2, and 5 on November 3 through the
middle of the month.

Flares in the news:

https://bit.ly/46AiGMs

https://bit.ly/3PG9MX3

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere -- October 5, 2023 from Frantisek K. Janda, OK1HH.

"After witnessing a number of solar flares (though at most of
moderate magnitude) during the past month, plus three solar plasma
cloud impacts (CMEs), late September and early October, which were a
bit quieter.

However, the development of solar and especially geomagnetic
activity was so irregular that it was difficult to make predictions
for the following days. The geomagnetic calm on 28 September did
not mean an improvement in shortwave propagation conditions, but
rather a deterioration compared to the previous day, which was not
calm. The improvement on 2 and 3 October was the result of a
relative calm with non-declining solar activity.

Subsequent developments were mostly quieter. Nevertheless, there
were significant fluctuations in MUF on 4 October with a slight
deterioration. The explanation for the causes can be found mainly
in the timing of the overall development. Specifically,
deterioration often occurred after geomagnetic activity increased
overnight. In addition, sporadic layer E activity increased at
times (especially on 4-5 October). There was also a slight increase
in the concentration of protons in the solar wind on 3 October and
especially still on 5 October.

Irregular propagation conditions can be expected to continue, yet
there should already be less of a difference between expectations
and actual developments in October than there was in September."

W2BEE sent this about aurora: https://bit.ly/3ZHLUGU

Time lapse animation of sunspot:

https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8ofnhg

Max White M0VNG sent this, about the solar atmosphere:

https://bit.ly/3ZJydau

Check these links for the upcoming HamSCI propagation tests during
upcoming solar eclipses, the first on October 14, 2023:

https://www.hamsci.org/eclipse

http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLX013/2023

New report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/_eWJ8THt3pM

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell
us which mode you were operating.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins

Sunspot numbers for September 28 through October 4, 2023 were 109,
102, 106, 136, 146, 150, and 151, with a mean of 128.6. 10.7 cm
flux was 147.8, 155, 159.1, 161.1, 157.4, 153.7, and 155, with a
mean of 155.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 12, 10, 9, 9,
8, and 10, with a mean of 9.1. Middle latitude A index was 5, 13,
11, 9, 10, 6, and 8, with a mean of 8.9.
NNNN
/EX


--- MBSE BBS v1.0.8.4 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: American Radio Relay League (3:633/280.2@fidonet)