SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP047
ARLP047 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP47
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 47 ARLP047

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA November 28, 2022
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP047
ARLP047 Propagation de K7RA

ARRL headquarters was closed for the holiday last Thursday and
Friday, so this bulletin is delayed until Monday, but has fresh
content from Sunday night.

At 2228 UTC on November 27 the Australian Space Weather Forecasting
Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning: "A coronal hole
wind stream is expected to induce G1 periods of geomagnetic activity
from mid 30-Nov to 01-Dec."

Solar activity softened over the past reporting week, November
17-23. Average daily sunspot numbers dropped from 72.3 to 66, and
average daily solar flux from 137.2 to 116.5.

In the four days since the end of the reporting week the average
daily solar flux sunk to 106. But we look forward to rising solar
flux, peaking at 135 on December 12 and again on January 8.

In 2021 Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP047 the average daily
sunspot number was only 30.9, and solar flux was 80.8, so we can see
Solar Cycle 25 is progressing nicely.

Average daily planetary A index rose slightly from 4.4 to 5.1, and
middle latitude numbers declined from 3.9 to 3.4.

Two new sunspot groups emerged on November 16, one more on November
17 and another on November 18. Two more appeared, the first on
November 21 and the second on November 23. No new sunspots appeared
in the following four days. The peak sunspot number was 83 on
November 21.

Predicted solar flux is 105 and 110 on November 28-29, 115 on
November 30 through December 3, 120 on December 4, 125 on December
5-10, then 130, 135 and 130 on December 11-13, 125 on December
14-17, 120 on December 18, 125 on December 19-24, and 120 on
December 25-31, then 125 on January 1-6, 2023 then 130 and 135 on
January 7-8.

Predicted planetary A index is 10, 15 and 18 on November 28-30, then
10, 18 and 10 on December 1-3, 5 on December 4-7, 8 on December 8-9,
5 on December 10-16, then 10, 26, 15 and 8 on December 17-20, then
10, 15, 8 and 10 on December 21-24, 8 on December 25-27, then 12, 18
and 8 on December 28-30, and 5 on December 31 through January 3,
2023, then 8 on January 4-5.

F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote on November 24:

"Over the past seven days, I have been reminded again of the Woody
Allen quote, 'If you want to make God laugh, tell him about your
plans.'

"At first, the authors of the forecasts of the Earth's magnetic
field activity (including Tomas Bayer of the Budkov Geomagnetic
Observatory) predicted an increase to the level of a disturbance on
November 17. After that, most of the authors already agreed on
November 19. In the following days, the forecasts were pushed
forward, finally to 21-22 November. And was there anything? Nothing!

"Solar activity dropped slightly. The geomagnetic field was quiet
except for November 18 and 21. The development of shortwave
propagation was erratic, but not bad, with improvements on November
17, 19 and 24.

"For forecasting, we can sometimes use observations obtained using a
technique called helioseismology. Its map of the Sun's far side on
November 22nd showed a huge active region. The corresponding
heliographic longitude will appear at the eastern limb of the solar
disk in about 10 days. After that, we expect an increase in activity
and, of course, an improvement in shortwave propagation."

Occasionally I see a solar report in overseas tabloids that makes me
laugh out loud, or LOL as they say.

Here is one. I love the part that says our Sun is the largest star
in our solar system. No kidding! Normal solar activity becomes an
existential threat.

https://bit.ly/3EK9R6o

That was published on November 25, and no doomsday yet.

More dire warnings from the same source:

https://bit.ly/3uc0uYd

This one is pretty deep, but is about real science:

https://bit.ly/3ODAKxs

I haven't seen a new video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, but you
can check our Space Weather Woman's YouTube videos at https://www.youtube.com/user/SpWxfx .

Jon Jones, N0JK writes from Kansas:

"There was an extensive and unexpected sporadic-E opening November
19 early in the morning. I noted stations on Es about an hour after
local sunrise here in Kansas.

"I logged stations in W3 and W4 on 6 Meters on FT8. Signals were
good at times, the opening lasted here until about 1700 UTC.

"Sunspot AR3150 produced a M1-class solar flare at 1256 UTC. A
strong pulse of extreme UV radiation from the flare ionized Earth's
upper atmosphere. The sporadic-E appeared around 30 minutes later.
Perhaps this helped spark the Es? This has been the only significant
sporadic-E opening on 50 MHz so far in November, 2022.

"The opening was fortuitous. Larry Lambert, N0LL was operating
portable from rare grid DN90. He made many 6 meter contacts on
sporadic-E.

"The ARRL Phone Sweepstakes was on and sporadic-E may have helped
contestants make contacts on 20, 15 and 10 meters.

"Today (November 27, 2022) I got on 10 meters Sunday afternoon of
the CQ World Wide DX CW contest. Stations in Hawaii were very loud
at 2240 UTC. I logged 4 Hawaiians in 6 minutes running just 5 watts
and a magnet mount whip on a BBQ grill. 10 can be amazing at times."

N0JK writes the monthly VHF column, "The World Above 50 MHz" in QST.

Danny, K7SS reported on the Western Washington DX Club email
reflector that he worked single band 15 meters in the CQ World Wide
DX CW contest. "Great to have 15 open again. Not quite at its peak,
and never had a good opening to EU, except for OH, SM, and LA over
the top both days.

"Most EU worked scatter path to the E/SE. Thank goodness for Asia
action! Lots of JA, BY, and YB folks."

Danny lives in Seattle, where I live, and we have always had an
amazing pipeline to Japan.

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for November 17 through 23, 2022 were 64, 55, 59,
72, 83, 61, and 68, with a mean of 66. 10.7 cm flux was 119.2, 116,
115.1, 119.1, 117, 115.7, and 113.3, with a mean of 116.5. Estimated
planetary A indices were 2, 7, 5, 6, 10, 3, and 3, with a mean of
5.1. Middle latitude A index was 1, 5, 4, 3, 8, 2, and 1, with a
mean of 3.4.
NNNN
/EX


--- MBSE BBS v1.0.8 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: American Radio Relay League (3:633/280.2@fidonet)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP047
ARLP047 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP47
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 47 ARLP047

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA December 6, 2024
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP047
ARLP047 Propagation de K7RA

Solar activity seems to have dropped dramatically from a recent peak. Are we over the cycle peak and headed down again? Too early to say.


Daily average sunspot numbers this week sank to 120.1.

Predicted solar flux is 175 on December 6 to 8, 170 on December 9 and 10, 175 on December 11 and 12, and 205 on December 13 to 17.


Predicted planetary A index is 8 on December 6 and 7, 5 on December 8 to 12, 10, 8 and 5 on December 13 to 15, 8 on December 16 to 18, 12 and 8 on
December 19 and 20 and 5 on December 21 through January 6, 2025.


Commentary from OK1HH:
"After the unexpected solar proton flare of 21 November, which took place beyond the Sun's western limb, a rain of higher-energy protons hit the
Earth's atmosphere. This solar radiation storm had a greater impact at higher latitudes in the southern hemisphere, where it caused a significant increase
in attenuation.


"Two days later, two new large sunspot groups appeared near the southeastern limb of the Sun. These produced moderate eruptions daily, which is more or
less normal for the 11-year maximum. These are AR3905 and AR3906, which have grown rapidly to a size where they can be observed with the naked eye. There
is a relatively small coronal hole near them that could be influencing the solar wind enhancement.


"Following the eruption of a plasma filament near AR3901, a G2 class geomagnetic storm is possible on November 28 and 29, when a CME is expected
to impact. However, around 1900 UT on November 28, when this information is written as usual, nothing is still happening. We will see what happens next.
It is quite possible that the plasma cloud will only hit the Earth a little
and it is also not out of the question that it will miss the Earth
completely. So any prediction at this point has a low probability of coming true."


Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net [ mailto:k7ra@arrl.net ] . When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.


For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see www.arrl.org/propagation [ http://www.arrl.org/propagation?utm_source=Informz&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=ARRL
] and the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, www.arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals [ http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals ] .


For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see www.arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere [ http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere ] .


An archive of past propagation bulletins is at www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation [ http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation ] .


More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us [ http://k9la.us/ ] .


Also, check "Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST: https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt [ https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt ] .

Instructions for starting or ending email subscriptions to ARRL bulletins are at www.arrl.org/bulletins [ http://arrl.org/bulletins ] .


Sunspot numbers for November 28 through December 4, 2024 were 149, 162, 103, 83, 113, 126, and 105, with a mean of 120.1. 10.7 cm flux was 213.9, 219.8, 204, 186.3, 185.3, 174.2, and 174.7, with a mean of 202.2. Estimated
planetary A indices were 4, 8, 11, 7, 6, 13, and 7, with a mean of 8.3.
Middle latitude A Index was 3, 6, 9, 6, 6, 6, 10, and 5, with a mean of 6.

NNNN
/EX

ARRL(R) The National Association for Amateur Radio(R)
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--- MBSE BBS v1.0.8.4 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: American Radio Relay League (3:633/280.2@fidonet)