SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP049
ARLP049 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP49
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 49 ARLP049

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA December 9, 2022
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP049
ARLP049 Propagation de K7RA

Solar activity bounced back in our reporting week, December 1 to 7.
With solar flux and sunspot numbers dramatically higher and
geomagnetic activity lower, what could be better? Well, even more
sunspots, I guess. But this sunspot cycle is already progressing
better than the prediction consensus, so I am grateful.

Average daily sunspot numbers increased from 46 to 85, while average
daily solar flux rose from 108.3 to 137.5.

How do these numbers compare with a year ago? The week of December
2 to 8, 2021 had an average daily sunspot number of 24.6 and solar
flux at 82.6.

Average daily planetary A index dropped from 18.6 to 14.4, while
middle latitude numbers declined from 14 to 9.1.

Predicted solar flux for the next few days is 140 on December 9 to
11, then 130, and 125 on December 12 and 13, 120 on December 14 and
15, 110 on December 16 to 19, 115 on December 20 to 22, 120 on
December 23 to 28, then 125, 130 and 135 on December 29 to 31, then
140 on January 1 to 6, 2023, then 135 on January 8, 125 on January 9
and 10, 115 on January 11, and 110 on January 12 to 15.

Predicted planetary A index is 8 on December 9 and 10, 5 on
December 11 to 16, 10 on December 17 and 18, 5 on December 19 to 21,
then 20, 15 and 12 on December 22 to 24, 20 on December 25 to 28,
then 12, 10, 12 and 8 on December 29 through January 1, 2023, then
5, 12, 15 and 8 on January 2 to 5, and 5 on January 6 to 12, then 10
on January 13 and 14, and 5 on January 15 to 17.

Don't forget the ARRL 10 meter contest this weekend.

https://www.arrl.org/10-meter

In North America, that starts on Friday evening, and the latest
prediction shows a promising high solar flux with low geomagnetic
numbers, ideal conditions.

F.K Janda, OK1HH wrote:

"This week, no dramatic events - no large proton eruptions, and the fluctuations of the solar wind did not deviate from the limits we
have become accustomed to this year. The most prominent feature was
the canyon-shaped coronal hole, which paraded from the eastern to
the western half of the solar disk.

But its surroundings were changing, especially at its northern end.

From there, the HSS (high-speed solar wind) probably began to flow

from there on December 7th, reaching Earth and finally triggering a
geomagnetic disturbance on the afternoon of the same day.

Before the aforementioned coronal hole sinks behind the western edge
of the solar disk in a few days, we can still expect an increase in
the activity of the Earth's magnetic field and irregular changes in
the ionosphere.

Don't expect more accurate predictions.

A decrease in solar activity will follow, and the decrease in solar
radiation will add up in the ionosphere to the shortening of the
day. Only with a delay of several days will propagation improve in
the longer part of the short wave band."

Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW wrote:

"On Wednesday, December 7, 2022, between 1429 and 1432 UTC I
received the United Kingdom, G9PUC in grid square JO00au calling CQ
using digital mode FT8 on the experimental 8-meter (40 MHz) band via
F2 propagation. Distance was 3541 miles, with an azimuth of 050
degrees.

The 8-meter experimental band is within the worldwide Industrial-Scientific-Medical (ISM) segment between 40.66-40.7 MHz
with a 40 kHz bandwidth, center frequency on 40.680. Licensed users
are the Fixed, Mobile and Earth exploration- satellite service.

G9PUV resides in Iford, England and has an Innovation Trial
license from Ofcom to conduct research on 8 meters for 12 months,
starting April 1, 2022.

Paul uses an Icom IC-706 rig into a W4KMA Log Periodic antenna
(custom 18-100 MHz) at 49 feet AGL at 30 watts.

The noon 10.7cm Radio Flux was 148 sfu. The Estimated Planetary K
index (3 hour data) 12-15 UTC ramped up to a Kp index of 5.

I was using the JTDX v2.2.149-32A suite. The Band Activity window
displayed the following eight decodes.

142915 -14 0.3 526 CQ G9PUV JO00
142945 -5 0.3 526 CQ G9PUV JO00
143015 -4 0.3 526 CQ G9PUV JO00
143045 -10 0.3 526 CQ G9PUV JO00
143115 -6 0.3 525 CQ G9PUV JO00
143145 -9 0.3 525 CQ G9PUV JO00
143215 -16 0.3 524 CQ G9PUV JO00
143245 -11 0.3 524 CQ G9PUV JO00

Less than one hour later, I decoded Ireland, EI2IP in grid square
IO52 calling CQ using digital mode FT8 via F2. He decoded
twenty-two times.

Distance was 3151 miles, with an azimuth of 050 degrees.

EI2IP resides in Limerick, Ireland. (EI) radio amateurs are
authorized to transmit on this band without a Test Trial license
from ComReg.

The Band Activity window displayed the following decodes.

152300 -14 0.6 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
152600 -18 0.4 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
152630 -13 0.5 1464 CQ EI2IP IO52
152700 -19 0.5 1464 CQ EI2IP IO52
152730 -12 0.5 1464 CQ EI2IP IO52
152800 -22 0.4 1464 CQ EI2IP IO52
152830 -14 0.4 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
152900 -11 0.5 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
152930 -15 0.5 1467 CQ EI2IP IO52
153000 -21 0.5 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
153530 -15 0.5 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
153600 -18 0.5 1464 CQ EI2IP IO52
153630 -20 0.6 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
153700 -19 0.6 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
153800 -14 0.5 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
153830 -13 0.4 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
153900 -20 0.6 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
153930 -18 0.6 1467 CQ EI2IP IO52
154000 -16 0.5 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
154030 -20 0.5 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
154100 -16 0.5 1467 CQ EI2IP IO52
155700 -20 0.5 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52"

Thanks to Howard, N7SO for this link:

https://www.youtube.com/SVAstronomyLectures

Solar physics:

https://bit.ly/3Ybi38y

Dr. Tamitha Skov's tutorial on the ionosphere, 2 years ago:

https://youtu.be/zUXBeYHTsUk

WX6SWW Current video:

https://youtu.be/eAbskTOybvE

Newsweek sunspot report:

https://bit.ly/3BlnPuS

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for December 1 through 7, 2022 were 49, 66, 68, 93,
89, 123, and 107, with a mean of 85. 10.7 cm flux was 118.7, 124,
133.8, 143,7, 149.8, 144.2, and 148, with a mean of 137.5. Estimated
planetary A indices were 28, 16, 10, 17, 8, 4, and 18, with a mean
of 14.4. Middle latitude A index was 18, 11, 7, 10, 7, 2, and 9,
with a mean of 9.1.
NNNN
/EX


--- MBSE BBS v1.0.8 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: American Radio Relay League (3:633/280.2@fidonet)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP049
ARLP049 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP49
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 49 ARLP049

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA December 8, 2023
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP049
ARLP049 Propagation de K7RA

Six new sunspot groups emerged over this reporting week (November 30
to December 6).

Last week, using the previous week's Propagation Forecast bulletin
as a template, the averages were not updated, although all the
correct data was there.

So instead of average daily sunspot number of 83.3, it was actually
165.9, which this week dropped to 121.1.

Instead of average daily solar flux of 146, it was actually 181.5,
which this week declined to 146.5.

Instead of average daily planetary A index of 10.1, it was actually
11.6, which this week rose to 17.1. Instead of average middle
latitude A index of 7.3 it was 9, rising this week to 11.4.

Predicted solar flux is 135, 130, 130 and 135 on December 8-11, 137
on December 12-15, 140 and 150 on December 16-17, 160 on December
18-26, then 155, 150, 145, and 140 on December 27-30, then 136, 134
and 130 on December 31 through January 2, 2024, and 132 on January
3-5, then 130 and 135 on January 6-7, then 140 on January 8-12.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on December 8-9, 8 on December
10-11, 5 on December 12-17, then 15, 25, 8, 5, 20 and 10 on December
18-23, 5 on December 24-30, then 25, 10 and 8 on December 31 through
January 2, 2024, and 5 on January 3-6, then 10 and 8 on January 7-8,
and 5 on January 9-13.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere, December 8-14, 2023 from OK1HH:

"After passing through a twenty-seven day low in mid-November, solar
activity began to increase. Slowly at first, then steeply in recent
days. What was common to the whole period was that the predictions
of further developments were not fulfilled. Shortwave conditions
were, with a few exceptions, worse than expected.

"In the second half of last week, the Earth's magnetic field was
calm despite the eruption of a magnetic filament on the Sun on
November 16, which threw a CME almost directly toward the Earth. We
expected the CME to arrive on November 19. On the contrary, quiet
days followed on November 19-20.

"Then, despite seven new sunspot groups and calm in the Earth's
magnetosphere, propagation did not improve until November 20.

"Improvement occurred on 21 November, when the onset of the
geomagnetic disturbance was accompanied by two positive phases of
development with increases in MUF and an overall improvement in
conditions (at intervals of 1000-1300 UTC and 1600-1900 UTC).

"The following evolution could be expected - there was a
deterioration of conditions in the negative phase of the disturbance development on 22 November. However, the deterioration was
short-lived, after which, thanks to the increasing solar activity,
an improvement occurred already on 23 November.

"Although solar activity continues to increase, there is a coronal
hole near the five active regions in the northeast quadrant of the
solar disk. This configuration will cause further increases in solar
wind speed and therefore more frequent alternation of better and
worse days."

From "Universe Today" a story about a big, big solar storm in 1872:

https://bit.ly/3RgUWqL

A story about a big coronal hole:

https://bit.ly/487quGd

From "Science Alert" another article about a big hole on the Sun:

https://bit.ly/41adYDC

From "EarthSky" a new region on the Sun:

https://bit.ly/3RxtCWG

Don't forget, the ARRL 10 meter contest is THIS weekend!

https://www.arrl.org/10-meter

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for November 30 through December 6, 2023 were 138,
140, 92, 107, 113, 133, and 125, with a mean of 121.1. 10.7 cm flux
was 166.5, 162, 148.2, 139.2, 137.8, 141.6, and 129.9, with a mean
of 146.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 56, 14, 11, 9, 15,
and 10, with a mean of 14.1. Middle latitude A index was 4, 30, 11,
10, 9, 9, and 7, with a mean of 7.3.
NNNN
/EX


--- MBSE BBS v1.0.8.4 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: American Radio Relay League (3:633/280.2@fidonet)