723
AXNT20 KNHC 060932
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Apr 6 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Gale Warning/Swell Event: A cold front is moving
southward east of Bermuda and is now along 30N. Recent
scatterometer satellite data indicated SW winds to minimal gale
force within 90 nm ahead of the front. In addition to the gale
force winds, buoy observations and altimeter satellite data
indicated large N swell is following the front. The front will
continue southward east of 65W through early next week, before
eventually stalling and dissipating along 20N by late Tue. Winds
will diminish below gale- force through late Sun. Meanwhile, the
swell will produce seas 12 ft as far south as 18N through Mon
night, with highest seas near 30N around 23 ft. The swell will
subside below 12 ft through mid week.

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 1025 mb high
pressure of 1025 mb southwest of Bermuda near 31N70W and a 1010
mb Colombian Low will continue to support strong to near- gale
force trades across the south-central Caribbean through tonight.
Winds will peak at gale-force through the early morning off
Colombia with seas reaching to 12 ft with the strongest winds.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong late-season cold front is
moving into the northwest Gulf this morning. The front will reach
from Mobile Bay to Coatzacoalcos, Mexico by Sun evening, followed
by strong to near- gale force N winds and building seas. Winds
will reach gale force off Tampico, Mexico Sun morning, and off
Veracruz, Mexico by Sun afternoon. The winds will diminish below
gale force into Mon night, as the front reaches from Cedar Key,
Florida to near Merida, Mexico, but strong winds and rough seas
will follow the front across most of the western Gulf.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas and Offshore Waters
Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center, at website:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

...MONSOON TROUGH/INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast
of Guinea near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 02N20W,
where it transitions to the ITCZ and extends to near the coast of
Brazil near 02S47W. Scattered moderate convection is active from
02S to 04N between 10W and 45W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the western Gulf of Mexico.
Please refer to the Special Features section for more details.

A strong late-season cold front extends from near Cameron,
Louisiana to Tecolutla, Mexico. A recent buoy observations and
scatterometer satellite data showed strong to near- gale force
northerly winds and seas to 9 ft following the front over the
northwest Gulf. Fresh to strong SE to S winds and 8 to 11 ft seas
are noted across the central Gulf ahead of the front, and moderate
to fresh SE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are evident across the
eastern Gulf. The moist southerly flow ahead of the front is
sustaining areas of sea fog, and platform observations indicate
visibility is 2 to 5 miles in these areas. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms are active over Matagorda Bay in Texas
following the front.

For the forecast, the cold front will reach from Mobile Bay to
Coatzacoalcos, Mexico this evening, followed by strong to near-
gale force N winds and building seas. Winds will reach gale force
off Tampico, Mexico later this morning, and off Veracruz, Mexico
by this afternoon. The winds will diminish below gale force into
Mon night, as the front reaches from Cedar Key, Florida to near
Merida, Mexico, but strong winds and rough seas will follow the
front across most of the western Gulf. Winds and seas will
diminish through Tue from west to east as high pressure builds
over the southern Plains and the front moves southeast of the
basin. Looking ahead, gentle breezes and slight seas will persist
Wed into Thu in all but the southeast Gulf, where large swell may
persist through Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the waters near the coast of
Colombia. Please refer to the Special Features section for more details.

Recent scatterometer satellite data indicate strong to near- gale
force winds off Colombia, in the Gulf of Honduras and across the
Windward Passage. Since this pass occurred around 0130 UTC, the
winds off Colombia have likely increased to gale force. The
observations also confirm fresh to strong E to SE winds across the
basin, except for the eastern Caribbean, south of Cuba in the
northwest Caribbean, and south of 10N off Panama and Costa Rica.
These winds are due to a tight gradient between 1025 mb high
pressure west of Bermuda, and lower pressure over northern
Colombia. Altimeter satellite data and buoy observations indicate
9 to 13 ft over the central Caribbean, 8 to 11 ft over the Gulf of
Honduras and off Belize, 7 to 9 ft in the Windward Passage, and 5
to 8 ft elsewhere. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted
between Haiti and Jamaica and south of the Dominican Republic.

For the forecast, a strong pressure gradient between the Bermuda
High and the Colombian Low will continue to produce strong trade
winds across the central Caribbean, the Atlantic Passages and the
Gulf of Honduras through this morning, with another pulse of gale-
force winds expected offshore of Colombia tonight. Rough to very
rough seas will accompany these winds. The Bermuda high will
weaken and shift eastward late Sun through mid-week, leading to
diminishing trades across the Caribbean. A cold front is expected
to reach the northwest Caribbean Tue morning, with fresh to
locally strong northerly winds filling in behind it. The front
will move eastward and stall from central Cuba to NE Honduras and
through Thu before dissipating.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the far NE Atlantic waters east of
40W. Please refer to the Special Features section for more details.

In addition to the gale-force winds ahead of the cold front described
in the Special Features section, fresh to strong winds and rough
seas are noted near the front covering the area north of 28N
between 30W and 55W. Farther west, 1025 mb high pressure is centered
southwest of Bermuda near 30N72W. Recent scatterometer satellite
data shows this pattern is supporting fresh to strong E winds
near the approaches of the Windward Passage and north of Haiti. It
also show E to SE winds in the Old Bahama Channel between Cuba and
the Bahamas. Moderate to occasionally fresh NE to E winds are
evident over the tropical Atlantic, with 6 to 8 ft seas. Farther
east, fresh N winds and rough seas are noted off Senegal. Gentle
to moderate breezes are noted elsewhere, with 5 to 7 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh N to NE winds and large swell
follow a cold front extending from 31N38W to 27N55W to 31N65W.
High pressure southwest of Bermuda is supporting fresh to strong
winds off the north coast of Hispaniola and near the approaches to
the Windward Passage, and fresh to strong S winds off northeast
Florida ahead of an approaching cold front expected to move off
the northeast Florida coast Mon night into Tue. Looking ahead, the
front will generally stall from Bermuda to central Cuba by mid-
week, followed by fresh to strong NE winds and rough to very rough seas.

$$
Christensen
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)