401
AXNT20 KNHC 091014
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Apr 9 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A frontal boundary extends from
just west of Bermuda to central Cuba early this morning. Along and
just ahead of the front, scattered strong thunderstorms are
producing locally strong to near gale force winds. A low pressure
center has formed along the front just north of the Bahamas. NE
winds are developing near the low this morning and will increase
to gale force north of 29N between 74W-77W today. Seas will peak
near 15 ft this afternoon and tonight. As the low moves toward
the northeast away from the area and weakens Thu, conditions will improve.

Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Large N swell has been
moving through the central and eastern North Atlantic over the
past several days. A pair of altimeter satellite passes from
around 0000 UTC show seas near 12 ft over a large area from
15N-31N between 35W-40W. These wave heights are in a mix of N
swell and shorter-period seas attributed strong to gale force
winds on the west side of 1002 mb low pressure near 34N24W,
moving southeastward toward the Canary Islands. Wave heights in
excess of 12 ft will persist through early Thu to the southwest of
the low pressure, then subside as the low weakens.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 00N30W
to the coast of Brazil near 03S44W. Scattered moderate convection
is active south of 03N west of 33W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 0900 UTC, post-frontal N winds continue across the Gulf
this morning. Winds are moderate to fresh in the E Gulf and light
to gentle in the W Gulf. Seas are only 1-2 ft in the NW Gulf, but
are still 6-7 ft in the SE Gulf. A weak cold front has reached
the waters off of the Florida panhandle overnight, but it is
expected to dissipate shortly. No deep convection is occurring
this morning.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh N winds in the E Gulf will
diminish today and tranquil weather should prevail through Fri
morning. A relatively weak cold front will move through the Gulf
Thu night through Fri. Fresh NW to N winds will follow this front
over the NE Gulf Fri night into Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A slow-moving cold front extends from central Cuba to 17N82W.
While winds east of the front are only light to gentle, winds west
of the front are N fresh to strong with seas 4-7 ft. Scattered
showers are noted within 60 NM of the frontal boundary. A modest
pressure gradient from a 1010 mb Colombian Low to a 1026 mb
Bermuda-Azores High near 30N50W is forcing moderate to fresh
trades east of 78W with seas 5-6 ft. Moderate NE swell is
impacting the Mona and Anegada Passages.

For the forecast, the cold front will drift across the NW
Caribbean today, then gradually dissipate from E Cuba to the
Honduras-Nicaragua border Thu. Fresh to strong NW to N winds will
follow the front across the Yucatan Channel and far NW Caribbean
through this afternoon. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades will
prevail in the south-central Caribbean into the weekend. Farther
east, large N swell will continue to impact Atlantic waters east
of the Lesser Antilles through Thu. Looking ahead, fresh to strong
N winds will follow the remnants of the front off the coast of
Nicaragua late Fri into Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for more details
regarding the upcoming gale warning northeast of the northern
Bahamas, and the large swell event in the central Atlantic.

A frontal boundary extends from just west of Bermuda to central
Cuba early this morning with a 1012 mb low forming near 28N76W.
Along and just ahead of the front, scattered strong thunderstorms
are producing locally strong to near gale force wind gusts.
Sustained winds are NE moderate to fresh north of the front with
seas 5-7 ft, and SW gentle to moderate south of the front with
seas 4-5 ft. Farther east, a modest pressure gradient from the
ITCZ to a 1026 mb Bermuda-Azores High near 30N50W is forcing
moderate to fresh trades south of 23N. A large area of 8-12 ft
seas is occurring southeast of a line from 31N45W to the Lesser
Antilles due to N swell and ENE wind waves.

For the forecast west of 55W, a low pressure center has formed
along the aforementioned front just north of the Bahamas. NE
winds are developing near the low this morning and will increase
to gale force north of 29N between 74W-77W today. As the low moves
toward the northeast away from the area and weakens Thu,
conditions will improve. Looking ahead, a weaker cold front will
move off the coast of Florida late Fri, followed by moderate to
fresh W to NW winds.

$$
Landsea
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