SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed to
address severe-thunderstorm development eastward from the Mid-South.
DISCUSSION...Multiple, probable severe thunderstorms have recently
developed around the greater Memphis vicinity of the Mid-South.
While slightly elevated at this time, downstream insolation should
yield a transition to mainly surface-based storms in the next couple
hours. Overnight CAM signals appear too slow on timing, evolution to
broader multicell clustering with transient supercells seems
probable into midday. 12Z Nashville observed sounding and recent
Memphis VWP data sampled minimal MLCIN along with moderate westerly
speed shear. This should support large hail as the primary near-term
threat, along with increasing damaging wind potential later this
morning.