ACUS01 KWNS 061259
SWODY1
SPC AC 061258

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0658 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS/MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from mid afternoon
through tonight from parts of the southern/central Plains to the
Ozarks and Midwest. The greatest potential for a few strong
tornadoes and very large hail should exist across eastern portions
of Oklahoma/Kansas/Nebraska into western Arkansas/Missouri and southern Iowa.

...Synopsis...
Upper troughing over the western CONUS this morning will evolve into
more of a split flow pattern through the period, as a lead mid-level
shortwave trough ejects northeastward across the central
Plains/Upper Midwest, and a closed low develops over the southern CA
vicinity. A surface lee cyclone has moved into northwest KS early
this morning, and is forecast to develop towards IA by this evening,
while a secondary low shifts eastward along the KS/OK border. A cold
front attendant to the primary surface low will surge
east-southeastward across the southern/central Plains and adjacent
portions of the Midwest through the period, and will likely provide
a focus for organized severe convection later today. A warm front
will develop northward through tonight across parts of the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes. This boundary should serve as a northern limit
to the severe threat from surface-based convection. A dryline will
also extend southward from the secondary surface low across
western/central OK into TX by late afternoon.

...Central Plains into the Midwest/Great Lakes...
Strong low-level warm/moist advection ahead of the lead mid-level
shortwave trough will continue to support scattered to numerous
thunderstorms this morning across eastern KS/NE into northern MO and
IA/IL. This activity will tend to remain elevated, but could pose an
isolated hail threat. In the wake of this convection, low-level
moisture is expected to continue streaming northward today ahead of
the cold front, with upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints common
by mid afternoon. Cold temperatures aloft and steepened mid-level
lapse rates will support the development of at least 1000-1500 J/kg
of MLCAPE with daytime heating. More instability should exist
farther south into KS where greater low-level moisture will be in place.

Current expectations are for scattered robust thunderstorms to
develop around mid afternoon (20-22Z) across southeast NE/northern
KS and vicinity, in close proximity to the surface low and ejecting
shortwave trough. Additional convection may also form farther south
into central/eastern KS. Strong deep-layer shear associated with a
50-70+ kt mid-level jet will easily support organized updrafts,
including multiple supercells initially. This activity will pose a
risk for large to very large hail, but fairly quick upscale growth
into one or more bowing clusters with a wind damage threat seems
probable along/ahead of the cold front as convection spreads into
IA/MO through the evening. Some risk for at least isolated
severe/damaging winds may persist late tonight into early Saturday
morning across WI/IL and perhaps even Lower MI if one of these
clusters can maintain intensity, although instability is forecast to
become more limited with eastward extent across these areas.

A few tornadoes may occur with sustained supercells or embedded QLCS circulations across the central Plains/Midwest along/south of the
warm front given favorable low-level shear and enlarged/curved
hodographs. A strong tornado appears possible with any supercells
this evening as low-level shear strengthens in tandem with a south-southwesterly low-level jet. The Enhanced Risk has been
expanded a little north/westward in northeast KS, southeast NE, and
southwest IA to account for the very large hail potential with
initial supercell development. Some consideration was also given to
greater severe wind probabilities in IA, but confidence in a more
concentrated corridor of damaging winds is low given the weaker
instability forecast with eastward extent across the Midwest.

...Southern Plains into the Ozarks...
Convective initiation along the length of the dryline in OK/TX
remains highly uncertain this afternoon/evening, as low-level
convergence will be weak and stronger large-scale ascent associated
with the ejecting shortwave trough will remain mostly displaced to
the north of these areas. Still, recent HRRR/RAP/NAM guidance
suggests that MLCIN will be minimal by peak afternoon heating, with
moderate instability in place along/east of the dryline. If any
cells can form and be sustained, they would likely become severe and
pose a threat for very large hail given the presence of steep
mid-level lapse rates noted on the 12Z OUN observed sounding, along
with around 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear aiding updraft
organization. The tornado threat would also increase this evening
with any persistent supercells as low-level shear gradually
strengthens. Regardless, the chance for convective initiation still
appears highly uncertain/conditional this afternoon. A better chance
for robust thunderstorm development remains apparent later this
evening/tonight as the cold front advances southward. Both large
hail and damaging winds may occur with this overnight activity
through the end of the period.

Most guidance also continues to show a somewhat separate area of
thunderstorms developing farther east across eastern OK/western AR
and vicinity this afternoon into early evening. This activity might
be aided by a very weak mid-level perturbation moving northeastward
today across central/northeast TX. If this convection develops, then
it would pose a threat for all hazards, including large hail,
damaging winds, and tornadoes (some of which could be strong). No
changes have been made to the Enhanced Risk across the southern
Plains/Ozarks with this update.

..Gleason/Dean.. 03/06/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (21:1/175)

ACUS01 KWNS 101235
SWODY1
SPC AC 101233

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0733 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...AND FROM WEST
TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are forecast today from the southern Plains
into the southern Great Lakes vicinity. All severe hazards are
possible, including the risk for a few strong to intense tornadoes
and very large hail.

...Synopsis...
A split-flow upper pattern persists across the CONUS this morning. Early-morning satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low over
the central Baja Peninsula within the southern stream and a subtle, low-amplitude shortwave trough moving through the Pacific Northwest
within the northern stream. Surface analysis shows a large reservoir
of low-level moisture from the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley northeastward into the southern Great Lakes. General expectation is
for both the southern-stream upper low and northern-stream shortwave
to progress eastward today, as some modest phasing occurs between
these two features.

This evolution will contribute to strengthening mid-level flow
across much of the Plains and MS Valley, while also resulting in
increased ascent across the broad warm sector. This will result in a
large area of strong to severe thunderstorms from the southern
Plains into the southern Great Lakes, beginning during the early
afternoon and persisting through the evening and overnight. Two
areas within this broader region, west TX into southwest OK and the
Mid MS Valley into the southern Great Lakes, have environmental
conditions that support the potential for significant severe
weather, including very large hail greater than 2" in diameter and
strong to intense tornadoes.

...Mid MS Valley into the Southern Great Lakes...

Northern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to move out of MT/WY
this evening, accompanied by strong mid-level flow (over 100 kt at
500 mb). However, this will be well west of the moist and buoyant
airmass across the Mid MS Valley. Even so, modest height falls are
anticipated over the region beginning during the late afternoon. Of
more consequence for the severe-weather potential, a surface low
(currently over the central NE/KS border vicinity) will eject
northeastward ahead of the shortwave, moving along the stationary
boundary that currently extends into far southern WI. This boundary
is also expected to sharpen throughout the day as low-level moisture
advection persists to its south and cold, northeasterly surface
winds persist to its north. Low-level convergence near the surface
low and stationary front will be augmented by the previously
mentioned subtle height falls to support thunderstorm development.
These mesoscale details as well as which side of the stationary
boundary storms develop will be key for determining the primary
severe hazard.

The airmass south of the stationary front is expected to be
moderately to strongly unstable, as temperatures in the 80s,
dewpoints in the low/mid 60s, and steep mid-level lapse rates
combine to support 2000+ J/kg of MLCAPE. Steep mid-level lapse rates
and associated moderate elevated buoyancy will persist north of the
front as well. Given the subtle forcing and mesoscale character of
this set up, CAM guidance varies notably on the timing and location
of thunderstorm development.

Kinematic profiles suggest that any surface-based warm sector
development should quickly become supercellular, with all severe
hazards possible, including very large hail and tornadoes. A strong
to intense tornado is possible, particularly with any storms ongoing
around 00Z when the low-level flow increases notably, resulting in
considerable elongation of the low-level hodograph. Latest guidance
suggests this tornado risk will exist into parts of far southwest
Lower MI, so probabilities were expanded accordingly. Very large
hail (i.e. 2"+ in diameter) will also be possible north of the front
where strong deep-layer vertical shear exists.

...Southern Plains...

The southern-stream upper low is forecast to eject eastward across
northern Mexico today, with ascent preceding this low overspreading
a West TX dryline by the afternoon. Initial storm development is
anticipated over the Permian Basin/Big Bend vicinity, with moderate
buoyancy and very strong vertical shear supporting a quick evolution
into supercells capable of very large hail greater than 3" in
diameter. Increasing thunderstorm coverage is expected from
southwest TX into southwest OK as the upper low continues eastward.
Very large hail will remain the primary severe risk although a trend
towards a more linear mode is expected throughout the evening.
Strong gusts could accompany the resulting squall line. The tornado
risk is expected to remain low, owing primarily to the modest
low-level flow. This low-level flow is expected to increase across
the TX Hill Country tonight, where a relatively greater tornado risk
could materialize if cells remain discrete.

...Northern OK/KS into the Lower OH Valley...

Most guidance has trended towards greater thunderstorm coverage
tonight near the front across northern OK and KS. Moderate buoyancy
and shear will be in place, supporting strong to severe
thunderstorms. Large to isolated very large hail is possible with
the initial development before a trend towards a linear mode shifts
the primary hazard to damaging gusts. The resulting convective line
is then expected to continue eastward across AR and MO before
reaching the Lower OH Valley early tomorrow morning. Damaging gusts
will remain possible as the line moves east overnight. A
low-probability tornado threat could also exist within this line as
it moves into the greater low-level moisture and stronger low-level
flow farther east across central/southern MO and far southern IL.

..Mosier/Dean.. 03/10/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (21:1/175)

ACUS01 KWNS 191302
SWODY1
SPC AC 191300

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms including a few tornadoes, large hail and
damaging wind gusts are expected across parts of the Midwest and
lower Ohio Valley today. Elsewhere, storms may produce strong wind
gusts over parts of coastal south-central California early today.

...Midwest/Ohio Valley...
A strong belt (80-100 kt at 500 mb) of cyclonically influenced
westerlies will extend from the Southwest Deserts to the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys, with modest late-day trough amplification over
the central Plains and Lower Missouri Valley. A related surface low
will transition east-northeastward across the Lower Missouri Valley
toward southern Lake Michigan tonight. A modestly moist warm sector
will become increasingly established, characterized by mostly 50s F
surface dewpoints, northward from the Mid-South across most of
Illinois/Indiana into western/southern Ohio by early evening.

A steady strengthening of southwesterly winds aloft will occur
today, increasingly atop/coincident with the modestly moist
warm-sector boundary layer. Long hodographs will be prevalent with
upwards of 50-60 kt effective shear by afternoon. Around 200-350
m2/s2 0-1 km SRH is expected to be maximized on the southeast
periphery of the surface low and in vicinity of the warm front, with
the favorable zone including southern Illinois, southern Indiana and
northern Kentucky.

Increasing storm development should occur by late morning/midday
across eastern Missouri, with maturing/increasingly surface-based
storms near and just north of the I-70 corridor in southern Illinois
by early afternoon. A semi-focused zone of peak severe/tornado
potential may unfold generally near I-70, southward to near I-64,
across southern Illinois and southern Indiana this afternoon through early/mid-evening. Sufficient forcing and boundary layer
warming/mixing should allow for at least isolated semi-discrete
development southward into the warm sector, and if so, relatively
long-lived multi-hour supercells are plausible, with all hazards
possible, but notably including heightened tornado potential, a few
of which could be strong (EF2+). Given the limited early season
moisture, the boundary layer will tend to become more hostile to
surface-based storms and overall severe potential into mid/late evening.

...Coastal South-Central California...
Bands of shallow convection will continue to move inland this
morning. Weak destabilization, along with moderate mean
boundary-layer winds just off the surface, could allow for locally
strong to damaging gusts as the front progresses southeastward.

..Guyer/Grams.. 02/19/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (21:1/175)