ACUS01 KWNS 260536
SWODY1
SPC AC 260534

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon and
evening across parts of the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Very
large hail, a few tornadoes, and severe wind gusts will be possible.

...Mid-Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley...

Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a weak short-wave trough
topping the dominant southwestern anticyclone over southern WY.
Latest lightning data supports this with isolated thunderstorms
currently noted from southern WY into the NE Panhandle. 00z model
guidance suggests this feature will advance into the Mid-MO Valley
by 18z, then progress into the Mid-MS Valley by 27/00z. As this
short wave advances east, surface ridging will build south across
the Plains and force a pronounced cold front across much of IA by
early afternoon with the sharp boundary settling south across
northern IL as a weak surface wave tracks toward southern Lower MI.

Deep westerly flow should allow surface temperatures to warm quickly
into the lower-mid 80s south of the front over IL/western IN. Even
so, convective temperatures may struggle to be breached until late
afternoon. Current thinking is upper 50s to near 60 F dew points
should return to this region prior to frontal passage, thus modest
MLCAPE is expected to develop. Forecast soundings suggest weak
capping may hold across the warm sector so it's not entirely clear
how much activity will develop well ahead of the front. However,
strong frontal forcing will easily encourage thunderstorm
development and convection will evolve within a strongly sheared
environment. Profiles favor organized rotating updrafts and
supercells are expected, especially early in the convective cycle.
Given the strength of the front there is an expectation for storm
mergers and line segments to evolve. Very large hail is possible,
especially with early supercell development. As a frontal MCS
evolves, damaging winds are expected to be more common with the LLJ strengthening into the evening hours across the OH Valley. Some
tornado threat also exists with storms that are not undercut by the
surging cold front, both with supercells and within the extensive
frontal squall line. This activity will spread toward the Ohio River
where gradual weakening is expected during the late-night hours.

..Darrow/Chalmers.. 03/26/2026

$$
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* Origin: Capitol City Online (21:1/175)

ACUS01 KWNS 061243
SWODY1
SPC AC 061242

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND CENTRAL ALABAMA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN
TEXAS HILL COUNTRY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening from eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys/southern Appalachians. Supercells capable of all hazards
will be possible across portions of central Mississippi and Alabama
before a shift to a more of a damaging wind risk into the late evening/overnight.

...Synopsis...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a pair of phased shortwave
troughs, one in the northern stream moving southward into UT/CO and
the other in southern stream off the southern CA/northern Baja
coast. Strong, confluent flow aloft exists downstream of these
shortwaves, with an extensive fetch of moderate to strong
southwesterly flow extending from northern Mexico into the
Northeast. A general deepening of the upper troughing is anticipated
throughout the day as the northern-stream shortwave continues
southeastward while the southern-stream shortwave moves gradually
eastward. This evolution will result in strengthening mid to upper
level flow from the southern Plain into New England, particularly
from the Lower MO Valley through the OH Valley where 500 mb flow
could exceed 100 kt. This evolution will also push a cold front,
which currently extends from the TX Hill Country into western PA,
farther south.

There will be some displacement between the strongest flow aloft and
the more warm and moist conditions south of the front. However,
even with this displacement, moderate to strong upper/mid flow is
still expected across much of the southern Plains and Southeast.
Strong to severe thunderstorms are still expected along and ahead of
this cold front from the TX Hill Country through the Southeast and
into the Carolinas. Highest coverage of severe thunderstorms will be
from central MS into central AL, where supercells capable of all
hazards will be possible.

...East TX/Lower MS Valley into the Southeast...

Recent surface analysis placed the cold front from near JCT in the
TX Hill Country northeastward through the Arklatex, northern MS, and
western TN. A weak low exists along this boundary over the western
AR/LA vicinity. 70s dewpoints extend from south TX across LA into
far western MS and southern AR, with upper 60s dewpoints through
much of MS. Low-level moisture advection is expected to continue
throughout the day, with mid 70s dewpoints possible from central LA
into central MS by the afternoon. This increasing moisture amid
filtered daytime heating will result in strong buoyancy ahead of the
front (i.e. 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE), despite poor mid-level lapse
rates. Also, as mentioned in the synopsis, strong deep-layer shear
will be in place, resulting in an overall airmass that supports supercells.

However, whether discrete supercells can develop and mature remains
uncertain. A combination of neutral height tendencies, widespread
cloud cover, and warm-air advection initiated storms will likely
lead to complex convective evolution and related storm interactions.
Majority of the convection-allowing guidance develops
thunderstorms within the warm sector from northern LA into central
MS by 18Z. Thunderstorm development is possible along the front from
northern AL into northern LA around this time as well. Large to very
large hail will be the primary risk with these storms, although
there is also a risk for tornadoes if a storm can remain discrete.
The tornado risk is expected to increase from the late afternoon
through the evening from central MS into central AL as low-level
hodographs lengthen in response to strengthening low-level flow.
Environmental conditions support the potential for a strong tornado
during this timeframe. Whether or not storms can realize this
increasing low-level shear will largely be a function of storm mode.
Storms should eventually begin to cluster and to grow upscale, with
an increasing damaging wind threat continuing downstream into
portions of southern Alabama and central/southern Georgia.

The front will continue slowly southward, and the very moist
environment could support additional warm sector storms throughout
much of the evening and overnight, supporting a continued risk for
all severe hazards. Several rounds of elevated storms are possible
as well, with hail as the primary risk with these storms.

...TX Hill Country into southeast TX...

A pair of supercells capable of large hail are currently ongoing
across southwest TX (Crockett and Sutton Counties). Environmental
conditions are favorable for storm maintenance for at least an hour
or two before northward displacement from the better buoyancy leads
to weakening. Additional isolated development is possible farther
east into central and southeast TX during the afternoon and evening.
Any storms that mature would likely be supercellular and capable of
producing severe hail and damaging wind gusts.

..Mosier/Dean.. 05/06/2026

$$
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* Origin: Capitol City Online (21:1/175)