177
AXNT20 KNHC 060957
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed May 6 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 28W, S of
10N, moving slowly westward at 5-10 kt. Nearby convection is
discussed in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.

The axis of an eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 63.5W, S
of 20N from near the Anegada Passage to eastern Venezuela, and
moving westward at around 10 kt. No significant convection is
associated with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and continues
southwestward to 01N24W with a tropical wave to the west as
described above. The ITCZ extends from west of the tropical wave
at 00N31W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 03S to 03N between 18W
and 51W, and from 03N to 07N between 07W and 18W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The pressure gradient between ridging that extends from well
northeast of the region in the central Atlantic southwestward to
across Florida to the northern Gulf and relatively lower
pressures in central Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh E to
SE winds over the western Gulf, locally strong near Veracruz,
Mexico, along with 3-5 ft seas. In the eastern Gulf, gentle to
moderate winds and 1-3 ft seas prevail. No significant convection
is noted over the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure over the NE Gulf with lower
pressures over Mexico will support moderate to locally fresh SE
winds in the western Gulf and gentle to moderate winds in the
eastern Gulf through tonight. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong
near the Yucatan Peninsula in the evenings. Similar winds will
pulse from Tampico to Veracruz, Mexico into early today. A weak
cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf coastal waters Thu
morning, quickly stall Thu evening, then lift back to the north as
a warm front Fri as high pressure ridging builds back in across
the basin from the east. Looking ahead, another weak front may try
to move into the northern Gulf waters by the end of the weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and
relatively lower pressure in northern South America continue to
support fresh to strong NE to E winds over the south-cetral
Caribbean including the Gulf of Venezuela, and seas of 6-8 ft.
Similar winds are in the Gulf of Honduras with 3-5 ft seas. The
first tropical wave of the season has moved into the eastern
Caribbean and is described more above. Moderate to fresh winds and
3-6 ft seas prevail across the remainder of the waters from 11N to
18N, with gentle to moderate winds and 2-5 ft seas elsewhere in
the basin. No significant convection is noted over the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between central Atlantic
high pressure and relatively lower pressure in northern South
America will continue to sustain fresh to strong trades over the
south-central Caribbean along with locally rough seas through the
rest of the week and into the weekend, with similar conditions
expected in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh trades are
expected across the remainder of the eastern and central
Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

1014 mb low pressure near 32.5N61.5W extends a slow moving cold
front through 31N61W to 26N73W then continuing as a stationary
front to 1015 mb low pressure near the northern Bahamas at 27N77W.
Scattered moderate convection is in the vicinity of the front to
the east of 68W. Fresh to locally strong S to SW winds and seas
of 5-7 ft prevail in the SE quadrant of the low. A tight pressure
gradient is present in the far NE tropical Atlantic with fresh to
strong winds and 6-9 ft seas noted from near the Madeira Islands
southwestward to a surface trough analyzed from 30N32W to 24N32W.
Gentle to moderate winds dominate the remainder of the tropical
Atlantic, including the SW N Atlantic and Tropical N Atlantic
offshore marine zones, with locally fresh trades south of 15N and
west of 40W. Seas are 5-7 ft across that potential area of locally
fresh trades and 4-6 ft across the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong SW winds in the SE
quadrant of the low will impact the waters just south of 31N and
east of the front through this morning as the low slowly shifts
northeast. The northern portion of the front will slowly progress
east as a cold front while the southern portion gradually
dissipates. Another weak cold front will move off northern Florida
Thu night, gradually losing definition as it shifts across the
northern waters through Sat. Winds may pulse to moderate to fresh
off northern Hispaniola, increasing to fresh to strong this
weekend. Winds may freshen off northern Florida Sun night ahead of
another front. Otherwise, relatively weak high pressure will be
in place through the forecast period allowing for generally quiet
conditions across the area.

$$
Lewitsky
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (21:1/175)