• TS Ernesto Strengthens

    From Dumas Walker@21:1/175 to All on Tue Aug 13 09:22:00 2024
    509
    WTNT35 KNHC 131154
    TCPAT5

    BULLETIN
    Tropical Storm Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
    800 AM AST Tue Aug 13 2024

    ...ERNESTO STRENGTHENS A LITTLE WHILE PASSING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES...


    SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...16.6N 61.9W
    ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NW OF GUADELOUPE
    ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

    None.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

    A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
    * St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
    * Guadeloupe
    * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
    * Sint Maarten
    * British Virgin Islands
    * U.S. Virgin Islands
    * Puerto Rico
    * Vieques
    * Culebra

    A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
    expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

    Interests elsewhere in the northeastern Caribbean should
    monitor the progress of Ernesto.

    For storm information specific to your area in the United
    States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
    monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
    forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
    outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
    your national meteorological service.


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
    located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 61.9 West. Ernesto is
    moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A west-northwestward
    motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the
    next day or so. On the forecast track, Ernesto is expected to move
    across portions of the Leeward Islands this morning and near or over
    the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this evening.
    After passing Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, Ernesto is
    forecast to turn northward over the western Atlantic.

    Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
    sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
    higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next
    few days, and Ernesto could reach hurricane strength by Thursday
    over the waters north of the Greater Antilles.

    Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
    from the center. St. Barthelemy reported a wind gust of 56 mph (90
    km/h), and St. Martin reported a gust of 50 mph (80 km/h) during
    the past few hours.

    The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde
    observations is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
    Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
    and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

    RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over portions of the Leeward and
    Virgin Islands. For Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with
    maximum amounts of 10 inches, are expected.

    For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
    Tropical Storm Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service
    Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

    Elsewhere in the Caribbean, Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to
    produce the following rain accumulations through Friday morning:
    Windward Islands...1 to 4 inches
    Eastern Hispaniola...2 to 4 inches

    WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the
    warning area for the Leeward Islands. Tropical storm conditions are
    expected to begin spreading over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico
    by this evening.

    STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
    to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico
    from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and
    Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St.
    John, and St. Croix.

    A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
    above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the
    coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

    SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
    Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands and will spread westward to
    Puerto Rico later today. These swells will then reach the
    Dominican Republic tonight, the Turks and Caicos Islands and
    southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday, and Bermuda on Thursday.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

    $$
    Forecaster Berg
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