• Heavy Rain/Flooding TX/NM

    From Dumas Walker@21:1/175 to All on Mon Sep 2 08:56:00 2024
    AWUS01 KWNH 021308
    FFGMPD
    TXZ000-NMZ000-021905-

    Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0961
    NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
    907 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2024

    Areas affected...west-central to western TX and far southeastern NM

    Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

    Valid 021306Z - 021905Z

    Summary...Isolated to widely scattered flash flooding will be
    possible across portions of west-central into western TX and
    perhaps far southeastern NM through 19Z. Rainfall rates of 1-2
    in/hr and localized totals of 2-4 inches are expected.

    Discussion...Radar imagery from 1245Z showed scattered showers
    with embedded thunderstorms across central TX, increasing in
    coverage toward the west into southeastern NM. 12Z RAOBs and GPS
    data showed precipitable water values across the region were 1.5
    to 2+ inches (higher to east), or between the 90th percentile and
    the climatological max via SPC sounding climatology. The anomalous
    moisture will be tempered a bit by marginal instability, currently
    500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE via the SPC mesoanalysis, and extensive
    cloud cover will likely limit significant increases in instability
    into the early afternoon.

    Broad easterly flow in the low levels between 15-25 kt will allow
    upslope lift to couple with the right entrance region of a 50-70
    kt upper level jet located over the northern TX Panhandle into the Ozarks...positioned just east of an upper level trough over
    eastern NM. Showers and embedded thunderstorms are likely to
    continue over the next several hours with bursts of higher
    intensities as daytime heating acts to increase instability at
    least modestly. Occasional instances of east-west training are
    anticipated throughout the morning into the early afternoon, with
    hourly rainfall peaking in the 1-2 inch range. Some spotty 2-4
    inch totals are expected through 19Z which may produce isolated
    spots of flash flooding, given pockets of lower flash flood
    guidance scattered across the region.

    Otto

    ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

    ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

    LAT...LON 33560121 33549943 33049795 31379788 30339879
    30119984 30760057 31090141 31130333 31530378
    32110373 32870311 33230263
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