• Heavy Rain/Flooding MS

    From Dumas Walker@21:1/175 to All on Fri Sep 6 08:12:00 2024
    AWUS01 KWNH 061253
    FFGMPD
    ALZ000-MSZ000-061700-

    Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0982
    NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
    852 AM EDT Fri Sep 06 2024

    Areas affected...South-Central MS

    Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

    Valid 061252Z - 061700Z

    Summary...A nearly stationary band of shallow, efficient
    convection continues along the I-20 corridor in MS, which could
    lead to additional flash flooding this morning as it persists.

    Discussion...Radar mosaic highlights a very efficient band of
    showers and thunderstorms exhibiting training along the I-20
    corridor in MS. Estimated hourly rainfall rates with this activity
    have not been particularly intense (.5-1.25"/hr). However, the net
    stationary movement of this activity over the last hour led to a
    swath of elevated CREST streamflows (100-300 cfs/smi), with spots
    of 100% QPE-FFG exceedance noted.

    This activity is occurring along a mid-level deformation axis
    evident in the composite ALPW suite, with several weak
    circulations also noted along I-20 per recent radar. While
    instability was weak, completely saturated vertical profiles and
    very deep warm cloud layers (14-15,000 feet) will continue to
    support very efficient warm rain processes in the presence of the
    persistent and stationary forcing.

    None of the morning CAM suite is initializing this precipitation
    band well. However, the stationary nature of the forcing combined
    with the very moist environment should support the maintenance of
    this activity for at least the next several hours. Additional
    flash flooding is possible, especially over urban areas including
    Jackson, MS should the band translate eastward, and along I-20
    where a Flash Flood Warning is in effect.

    Asherman

    ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...MOB...

    ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

    LAT...LON 32708969 32528821 32038818 31828929 31959017
    32429031
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