• Heavy Rain/Flooding NC/SC

    From Dumas Walker@21:1/175 to All on Mon Sep 16 08:38:00 2024
    AWUS01 KWNH 160901
    FFGMPD
    NCZ000-SCZ000-161500-

    Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1019
    NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
    500 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

    Areas affected...Southeast NC...Northeast SC

    Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

    Valid 160900Z - 161500Z

    SUMMARY...Heavy rainfall associated with Potential Tropical
    Cyclone Eight will be advancing inland this morning across
    southeast NC and northeast SC. A gradual increase in the threat
    for flash flooding can be expected as rainfall rates increase.

    DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E Proxy Visible satellite imagery
    along with radar and aircraft data shows the low center of
    Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight centered approximately 95 miles
    east-southeast of Charleston, SC at 09Z (5AM EDT). The storm
    continues to advance slowly off to the northwest, and this will be
    allowing for heavy rainfall focused around the northern quadrant
    of the storm to begin cyclonically wrapping inland across the
    coastal plain of southeast NC and northeast SC this morning.

    The system still has a fair amount of baroclinicity associated
    with it for the time being given the proximity of multiple frontal
    features, but radar imagery shows pockets of very strong
    convection north of the low center with extremely heavy rainfall
    rates. This is also where there is much greater instability and
    the latest RAP analysis confirms MLCAPE values of as much as 1500
    J/kg near and to the northeast of the center where some of the
    colder convective tops are noted.

    Much more stable air is still noted along the immediate coastal
    plain of the Carolinas, and this will tend to keep rainfall rates
    a bit limited in the short-term across these areas as rains
    offshore gradually push inland. However, in time as stronger
    onshore flow arrives and the low center approaches by later this
    morning, there should be an influx of greater instability and
    stronger moisture convergence that will be conducive increasing
    rainfall rates.

    The 00Z HREF guidance supports rainfall rates in the 12Z to 15Z
    time frame reaching 1 to 2 inches/hour across especially the
    coastal areas of southeast NC around the Wilmington, NC vicinity.
    Some of these heavier rainfall rates may also spread into
    northeast SC near and to the north of Myrtle Beach.

    Expect rainfall amounts by 15Z (11AM EDT) to reach as high as 2 to
    4 inches with isolated amounts potentially up to around 5 inches.
    These rains will gradually increase the threat for flash flooding
    by later this morning.

    Orrison

    ATTN...WFO...ILM...MHX...RAH...

    ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

    LAT...LON 34667791 34667738 34437729 34177765 33837785
    33777842 33407907 33557953 33917961 34177945
    34357913 34487867
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